Should I buy Vulcan Steel stock in 2025? Insights for NZ Investors

What is Vulcan Steel?

How much is the Vulcan Steel stock?

The price of Vulcan Steel stock is rising this week. As of now, the share is trading at 7.18 NZD, marking a 24-hour increase of +0.47% but showing a weekly decline of -5.29%. Vulcan Steel’s market capitalisation stands at 911.92 million NZD, with an average three-month trading volume of about 42,359 shares.

Vulcan Steel’s beta on the NZ market is 0.74, suggesting moderate volatility compared to the broader market. Investors should note that recent performance reflects sector headwinds, but the company’s leading position in Australasia continues to support its long-term investment appeal.

Our full analysis on the Vulcan Steel stock

After an in-depth review of Vulcan Steel Limited’s latest financial results and a close examination of the stock’s price evolution over the past three years, our proprietary analysis—integrating financial indicators, technical metrics, market data, and peer comparisons—yields a comprehensive perspective on the company’s prospects. With Vulcan well-positioned at the intersection of core Australasian industrial sectors and demonstrating unique structural strengths even amid cyclical challenges, a case emerges for renewed strategic interest. So, why might Vulcan Steel stock once again become a strategic entry point into the Australasian metals and distribution sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Vulcan Steel has seen its share price adjust in recent months, currently trading at 6.44 AUD (7.18 NZD) as of 30 May 2025. This represents a short-term downturn: a weekly decline of 5.29%, a 12.02% decline over six months, and roughly a 9–11% drop over one year. While these figures may initially appear lacklustre, they nonetheless set the stage for a classic cyclical reset—a scenario often associated with later opportunity for value-focused investors.

Notably, the stock’s performance has not been isolated; rather, it tracks broad headwinds seen across the sector as construction and industrial activity in Australasia moderated in 2024. However, several positive recent events provide a platform for future upside. The appointment of Gavin Street as Chief Commercial Officer signals a strategic boost to the company’s commercial leadership. More critically, Vulcan is signalling an appetite for external growth, actively seeking acquisitions to augment scale, diversify operations, and drive margin recovery. These shifts are occurring in tandem with a macroeconomic backdrop poised to improve, as analysts anticipate a rebound in building activity and downstream consumption for metals into 2025.

The consensus target from analysts places the stock’s fair value at 7.38 AUD (7.95 NZD)—reflecting more than a 15% upside from current levels. Vulcan’s robust dividend yield (1.85%–3.40%) further enhances the total-return profile, reinforcing defensive appeal even during sector troughs.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, Vulcan Steel presents an intriguing setup indicative of an approaching inflection. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.74 is near oversold territory, revealing that recent selling momentum is subsiding and the stock may be ripe for accumulation. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) currently stands at -0.24, a mild bearish signal, but consistent with the corrective phase rather than fresh downside.

Key moving averages—20, 50, 100, and 200 days—all reside above the current price, confirming the stock’s short-term downtrend but also highlighting the historical significance of this pullback. With prices consolidating just above a strong technical support at 6.24 AUD (the 52-week low), and a well-established resistance at 8.45 AUD (the 52-week high), Vulcan is positioned at the lower band of its trading range. This technical clustering near support levels has often preceded significant reversals in prior cycles, suggesting that the current juncture seems to represent an excellent opportunity for nimble buyers anticipating a sector recovery.

Short- to medium-term technical structure is transitioning from capitulation to a potential basing pattern. Historically, such setups in cyclical industrial stocks have offered outsized subsequent returns, especially when buying interest builds alongside early signs of fundamental improvement.

Fundamental Analysis

Despite the cyclical pullback reflected in the 2024 results, Vulcan Steel’s core fundamentals remain notably resilient. Revenue for the FY24 period stood at 1.06 billion NZD, with EBITDA at 148 million NZD—down from FY23 but still demonstrating the company’s ability to generate substantial cash flow even in a cyclical trough. Net profit of 40 million NZD remains solid, and the company continues to payout attractive dividends.

The company’s valuation, while currently reflecting recent earnings pressure (P/E ratio around 40–41), is arguably justified on a mid-cycle or forward basis. Vulcan’s price-to-earnings-growth (PEG) and price-to-sales (P/S) ratios remain compelling compared to Australasian peers, especially when factoring in sector recovery potential and Vulcan’s market leadership.

Structurally, Vulcan wields formidable advantages:

• Dominant market share as Australasia’s leading distributor of steel, stainless, and aluminium.
• Broad diversification across steel and non-ferrous products, and between New Zealand and Australia.
• Value-added processing capabilities, including cutting, drilling, and bending, which set Vulcan apart as an integrated solutions provider.
• Reputation and strong customer relationships built over 30 years, with a scale and footprint difficult for competitors to replicate.

Though results in FY24 fell short of analyst expectations due to macro headwinds, the company’s disposal-to-scale and demonstrated cyclical resilience position it well for a snap-back as sector activity normalises.

Volume and Liquidity

Trading volume at Vulcan Steel has held steady, with an average 42,359 shares changing hands daily over the last three months. This sustained liquidity highlights continued institutional and retail engagement, even during weaker tape action—a classic signal of underlying investor confidence.

With a well-structured float and a market capitalisation of 844.74 million AUD (911.92 million NZD), Vulcan offers the right mix of tradability and valuation dynamism. The stock’s beta (~1.0 on ASX, 0.74 on NZX) further points to a balance between growth potential and volatility: attractive for investors seeking upside without excessive risk.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Looking forward, several structural and tactical catalysts could support a renewed upward trajectory for Vulcan Steel:

• Active M&A pipeline: The company is publicly targeting acquisitions, which could drive immediate economies of scale, margin expansion, and geographical diversification.
• Sectoral rebound: As construction and industrial workloads recover in 2025—supported by easing monetary policy and renewed infrastructure activity—demand for metals distribution and processing should strengthen markedly.
• ESG and operational innovation: Vulcan is positioned at the forefront of sustainable distribution practices, with ongoing initiatives to reduce environmental impact and enhance operational efficiency. This not only aligns with regulatory trajectories in Australasia but enhances attractiveness for ESG-focused investors.
• Leadership transition: The new Chief Commercial Officer brings a track record of driving commercial excellence, an important signal that Vulcan is prepared to maximise emerging market opportunities.
• Peer comparisons: Within the Australasian context, Vulcan’s scale and reputation offer key advantages over smaller, less diversified peers, enabling faster capture of cyclical recovery.

These catalysts—combined with structural strengths—set the context for Vulcan potentially entering a new bullish phase as the sector turns.

Investment Strategies

For investors seeking tactical or strategic exposure to the Australasian industrial and metals supply chain, Vulcan Steel offers a spectrum of compelling entry points:

• Short-term: With the stock trading near 52-week technical support and the RSI suggesting conditions are close to oversold, short-term oriented investors may look to accumulate, anticipating a technical rebound toward the mean.
• Medium-term: As Vulcan pursues acquisitions and sector data point to a cyclical uplift, medium-term holders could benefit from a re-rating as earnings normalise and operating leverage asserts itself.
• Long-term: The company’s leadership scale, long-established franchise, dividend continuity, and robust product diversification reinforce Vulcan’s credentials as a core Australasian industrial allocation, especially for investors seeking both income and growth potential through multiple cycles.

Positioning at present levels may prove optimal—capturing value ahead of a broader cyclical and company-specific recovery. Those deploying capital now stand to benefit both from an anticipated sector-wide upturn and from exposure to any near-term corporate catalysts on the horizon.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Vulcan Steel?

In summary, Vulcan Steel demonstrates several attributes that justify renewed investor focus:

• Industry-leading position and brand in a key Australasian sector
• Diverse operating footprint hedging country and end-market risk
• Structural competitive advantages in processing and distribution
• Active pursuit of scale via acquisitions—a strong positive for future profitability
• Resilient dividend yield that enhances total shareholder return
• Technical, valuation, and volume conditions that suggest a new accumulation phase is emerging

While sector cyclicality and recent earnings softness warrant diversification and prudent position sizing, the combination of leadership, scale, and tactical catalysts means Vulcan Steel stock may be entering a new phase of opportunity. The recent correction provides an appealing entry point, and the convergence of technical, fundamental, and strategic strengths creates a robust case for serious consideration by New Zealand investors seeking exposure to the region’s industrial backbone.

For those looking to capitalise on both the recovery dynamics of the Australasian metals sector and the structural strengths of a market leader, Vulcan Steel seems poised to reward conviction as 2025 unfolds.

How to buy Vulcan Steel stock in New Zealand?

Buying Vulcan Steel shares online is both simple and secure for NZ investors, thanks to regulated brokers that offer easy access to ASX and NZX-listed stocks. You have two main ways to invest: buying Vulcan Steel shares outright (“spot buying”) to become a direct shareholder, or using Contracts for Difference (CFDs) for more flexible, leveraged trading. Both methods can be started in just a few clicks after opening an account and funding it. Read on for a detailed overview of each approach, and see our broker comparison further down the page to help you find the best fit for your needs.

Spot buying

A cash purchase (or “spot buying”) of Vulcan Steel shares means you buy actual shares on the NZX or ASX exchange and become a part-owner of the company. This is the classic way to invest, suitable for medium- and long-term investors. You’ll generally pay a fixed commission per order, such as NZ$3–NZ$15, depending on the broker.

Example

Let’s say Vulcan Steel shares are trading at NZ$7.18. With a $1,000 investment, you can buy around 139 shares, after accounting for a typical brokerage fee of around $5.

Gain scenario:
If the share price rises by 10%, your holding is now worth NZ$1,100 (139 × $7.90), delivering a gross gain of $100, or +10% on your initial investment.

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) let you speculate on Vulcan Steel’s share price without owning the underlying shares. This method is popular with active traders seeking to profit from price movements in both directions and to use leverage. With CFDs, fees are usually based on the spread (the small difference between buy/sell prices) and, if you hold positions overnight, overnight financing costs may apply.

Example

You decide to open a CFD position on Vulcan Steel with $1,000 and use 5x leverage. This gives you market exposure of $5,000.

Gain scenario:
If the share price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%. That’s a $400 gain on your $1,000 initial margin (excluding spreads or overnight fees).

Final advice

Before you start, it’s wise to compare broker fees, user experience, and available features—costs can make a real difference to your returns over time. Whether you go for traditional share ownership or leveraged CFD trading depends on your investment goals and risk tolerance. For a full comparison of top NZ brokers and platforms for Vulcan Steel shares, check out our dedicated comparison table further down this page.

Our 7 tips for buying Vulcan Steel stock

The latest news about Vulcan Steel

Vulcan Steel’s share price rebounded intraday by 0.47% despite a recent weekly decline. Trading on both the NZX and ASX, Vulcan Steel’s share price as of 30 May 2025 stands at 7.18 NZD (6.44 AUD), with an intraday gain reflecting renewed investor interest and some stabilisation after a -5.29% drop over the previous week. This positive movement occurs against ongoing volatility, but the intraday rise is a constructive signal watched closely by local investors seeking early signs of a turnaround.

Analyst consensus offers a 15% upside potential, with a median target of 7.95 NZD per share. Despite recent weak financial performance, professional analyst coverage (five institutions) provides a consensus 12-month target price significantly higher than the current share price, suggesting a potential for medium-term recovery. For New Zealand investors, this positive price gap—supported by a ‘hold’ consensus—provides an encouraging benchmark, indicating market confidence in Vulcan’s strategic positioning and capacity for rebound.

The appointment of Gavin Street as Chief Commercial Officer strengthens Vulcan Steel’s executive team. Gavin Street’s joining in September 2024 adds substantial experience and expertise to the company’s strategic leadership as it navigates a challenging market environment. For Vulcan Steel, which operates its head office in Auckland and employs over 1,300 staff across NZ and Australia, this leadership enhancement is viewed positively by local analysts, underpinning operational continuity and reinforcing growth initiatives.

Vulcan Steel is actively exploring acquisitions to drive growth and regional market expansion. Management’s ongoing search for acquisition targets underscores the company’s commitment to external growth strategies. This pursuit is particularly relevant for NZ stakeholders, as Vulcan’s footprint as a top Australasian distributor of steel and metals positions it well to consolidate its market leadership, support local employment, and create added value within New Zealand’s industrial ecosystem.

Dividend yield remains attractive, supporting investor returns despite weaker recent earnings. With a current dividend yield ranging from 1.85% to 3.40%, Vulcan Steel continues to offer returns to shareholders, even as its latest annual EBITDA and net profit figures were below those of the previous year. The maintenance of dividends in the face of market headwinds is particularly relevant for New Zealand investors seeking income and stability, reinforcing the stock’s appeal in diversified portfolios.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.