Should I Buy Gevo Stock in 2025? Complete NZ Analysis

What is Gevo?

How much is the Gevo stock?

The price of Gevo stock is rising this week. As of now, GEVO is trading at $1.31 USD, up 11.49% in the past 24 hours, though showing a -21.30% change over the last week. The company’s market capitalisation stands at $313.83 million, with an average 3-month daily volume of 3.06 million shares.

Gevo does not currently have a P/E ratio as it remains loss-making, and there is no dividend yield offered at this time. The stock displays a high beta of 1.86, indicating strong volatility—a factor to consider for NZ investors seeking exposure to the dynamic renewable energy sector.

Our full analysis on the Gevo stock

After thoroughly reviewing Gevo Inc.’s latest financial results and studying its stock performance over the past three years, we have consolidated a variety of objective financial indicators, technical signals, sector-wide market data, and competitive positioning through our proprietary analytical algorithms. The outcome is a nuanced, data-driven perspective on a company at the forefront of the renewable fuels revolution. So, why might Gevo stock once again become a strategic entry point into the sustainable energy sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Gevo’s share price has exemplified striking resilience and adaptability in the face of a volatile market landscape. As of 30 May 2025, Gevo closed at $1.31, reflecting a robust daily gain of 11.49%, with after-hours momentum pushing the price another 3.05% to $1.35. Despite short-term volatility—including a five-day and one-month drawdown of -21.3%—the company’s longer-term performance is noteworthy: Gevo has delivered an +84.7% return over the past year. This volatility, coupled with a 302% surge in volume today relative to the 65-day average, illustrates substantial investor engagement and underlying market confidence.

The renewable energy and sustainable fuels sector continues to benefit from favourable macroeconomic winds in 2025. Global government targets for decarbonisation, especially in aviation, alongside increasing consumer and corporate demand for environmentally responsible alternatives, underpin sector growth. Gevo, as a leader in alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) technology, is strategically positioned to capitalise on these trends as broad market momentum shifts decisively toward sustainability.

Importantly for New Zealand investors, the Asia-Pacific region is actively seeking alliances and supply chains with global SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) producers, supporting long-term demand for innovative players like Gevo.

Technical Analysis

Gevo’s technical structure currently presents a compelling risk/reward profile for both active traders and longer-term investors. The relative strength index (RSI) stands at 63.25, suggesting the stock is not yet overbought while signalling increasing bullish momentum. The MACD indicator has just crossed into positive territory (0.01), reinforcing a ‘Buy’ signal.

Short- and medium-term moving averages (20- and 50-day SMAs, at $1.14 and $1.15, respectively) sit below the current price, flagging upward momentum and highlighting that recent price action has reversed previous bearish trends. Meanwhile, longer-term SMAs (100- and 200-day at $1.45 and $1.52) are above the current price; a sustained break above these levels could herald a structural trend shift and serve as a confirmation signal for momentum investors.

Key support stands at $1.07, with a secondary level at $0.97—both appear well-defended in recent trading, providing attractive entry points for risk-managed positioning. Resistance levels at $1.39 and, most importantly, $1.70 (in line with consensus short-term targets) represent pivotal milestones; positive catalysts could see these levels quickly tested.

The combined technical setup—short-term recovery, robust support, a neutral-to-bullish bias, and surging volume—places Gevo in a technical posture that appears ripe for a potential new upside phase.

Fundamental Analysis

From a fundamental perspective, Gevo’s year-on-year revenue acceleration has been remarkable. Q1 2025 revenue reached $29.1 million, marking a staggering 629.5% increase over the same quarter last year. This growth trajectory is largely attributed to initial operations at the newly acquired North Dakota biofuel plant, which produced 11 million gallons of low-carbon fuel in just two months of operation. Furthermore, the company reported a narrower-than-expected net loss per share of -$0.09, outperforming consensus estimates and demonstrating positive operational leverage as the business scales.

Gevo’s valuation presents an interesting dichotomy: while traditional metrics like PE remain unavailable due to current net losses, the price-to-book ratio of 0.67 indicates the market is valuing assets conservatively, which could suggest limited downside and compelling upside if execution continues to improve. Likewise, a price-to-sales ratio of 7.15 is above historical norms, but justified when factoring in the exponential revenue ramp and the scale of growth anticipated as additional projects come online.

From a structural perspective, Gevo’s biggest asset is its innovation. Proprietary ATJ technology is now de-risked by government validation and is designed to deliver the lowest cost-per-ton carbon abatement in the SAF sector. This, combined with a clear market share in the net-zero aviation fuels field and a reinforced brand following high-impact government and corporate partnerships, underscores Gevo’s sustainable competitive advantage.

Volume and Liquidity

One of the strongest signals of market conviction is a pronounced increase in trading volume, a trend on full display here. The average daily volume sits at 3.06 million shares, but today’s volume soared to 9.25 million (302% of average), confirming that the recent price surge is underpinned by heightened liquidity and active institutional participation—not just retail speculation.

Additionally, Gevo’s large public float (228.7 million shares) and market capitalisation of over $313 million create a favourable environment for dynamic price discovery. This depth and breadth of the shareholder base facilitate effective risk management, enabling both individual and institutional investors from New Zealand and beyond to establish positions with efficient entry and exit. Elevated and sustained trading activity often precedes major price expansions, reinforcing the argument that Gevo is entering a new phase of investor interest.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

• $1.46 Billion DOE Loan Guarantee: The October 2024 commitment from the U.S. Department of Energy for the Net-Zero 1 plant not only de-risks project execution but serves as a powerful endorsement of Gevo’s technology and business model. This project, with a 60 million gallon annual SAF capacity, positions the company as a global pioneer.
• Explosive Revenue Growth: The North Dakota plant’s production ramp has already catalysed record revenue, and as operations scale further, recurring cash flows should accelerate.
• Strategic Divestment: The sale of the Luverne, MN ethanol facility for $7 million streamlines the balance sheet and cuts annual costs by $3 million, reflecting prudent financial stewardship.
• Strengthened Leadership: The appointment of a new CFO and Board member adds depth and operational expertise to guide the next leg of growth.
• Regulatory and ESG Tailwinds: Airlines, governments, and the broader transport sector are increasingly bound by net-zero targets, while geopolitical concerns have raised the strategic value of domestic energy sources—factors that uniquely favour Gevo’s business model.
• Repeatability and Scalability: Gevo’s ATJ technology can be replicated globally, offering a blueprint for rapid expansion, and the company’s existing offtake agreements and carbon credit strategies are expected to underpin future profitability.

Looking ahead, new project announcements, government incentives, and continued execution milestones have the potential to act as catalysts for material revaluation.

Investment Strategies

• Short-term Strategies: Traders may look to capitalise on technical momentum above key support ($1.07) or opportunistically buy in advance of corporate news or major volume spikes, targeting resistance at $1.39 and $1.70.
• Medium-term Outlook: For those with a 3–12 month horizon, accumulation ahead of the Net-Zero 1 plant milestone announcements or further operational updates appears well-justified, with the stock trading below its 100- and 200-day moving averages and consensus estimates suggesting upward price potential.
• Long-term Positioning: Investors with a multi-year perspective may find Gevo’s market leadership, technological moat, and powerful regulatory tailwinds highly aligned with the structural shifts in global energy and aviation sectors. Accumulating during periods of consolidation or ahead of major catalyst events could provide outsized rewards as demand for sustainable aviation fuel accelerates.

Ideal positioning may be achieved near current levels, particularly as the stock consolidates just above significant support zones and as news flow intensifies in the sector.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Gevo?

In summary, Gevo stands out as a high-conviction opportunity within the renewable fuels sector, underpinned by several reinforcing strengths:

• An industry-leading, government-validated SAF technology that is scaling rapidly;
• Explosive and accelerating revenue growth that materially beat expectations in Q1 2025;
• Robust market interest evidenced by surging volume and technical momentum;
• Major structural and regulatory trends favouring sustainable aviation fuel;
• Management actions that have de-risked execution and yielded a leaner, more focused growth platform.

While risks—including project execution and ongoing capital requirements—do remain, the current valuation, potent list of catalysts, and supportive macro context justify renewed attention from investors. With a technical profile that hints at a new bullish phase and an operational outlook that aligns with some of the most powerful global trends in energy, Gevo seems to represent an excellent opportunity for those seeking exposure to the sustainable transition in aviation and chemicals.

For investors in New Zealand and worldwide, Gevo’s unique convergence of smart technology, impressive growth, and governmental support suggest that now may be an ideal moment to closely re-examine this innovative stock and consider its strategic potential as the world pivots toward a net-zero future.

How to buy Gevo stock in New Zealand?

Buying Gevo (GEVO) shares online is straightforward and secure when using a regulated broker in New Zealand. Investors can typically choose between two main methods: buying Gevo shares outright (spot buying) or trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs) based on the share’s price. Both options allow for efficient exposure to the US-listed Gevo stock, with competitive costs and user-friendly platforms. The best choice depends on your investment goals and risk appetite. To help you get started, a comparison of leading NZ brokers for Gevo stock is provided further down this page.

Spot buying

A cash or spot purchase means you’re buying actual Gevo shares on the NASDAQ, making you a direct shareholder with voting rights and access to any potential dividends (note: Gevo currently doesn’t pay dividends). Most NZ brokers charge a fixed commission per order—typically between NZ$3 and NZ$15 per trade.

Example

If the Gevo share price is US$1.31 (about NZ$2.15), with NZ$1,000 you can buy approximately 465 shares, after accounting for a typical NZ$7 brokerage fee.

✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your Gevo shares will be worth NZ$1,100.
Result: +NZ$100 gross gain, meaning a +10% return on your initial investment.

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) let you speculate on Gevo’s price movements without owning the underlying shares. You can go long or short, and use leverage to amplify your position. Instead of a direct commission, CFD brokers typically charge a “spread” (the difference between buying and selling price) and may apply overnight financing fees for open positions held beyond one trading day.

Example

With NZ$1,000 and 5x leverage using CFDs, you control a position worth NZ$5,000.

✔️ Gain scenario: If Gevo rises by 8%, your gain is 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: +NZ$400 profit on a NZ$1,000 starting stake (excluding fees and interest).

Final advice

Before investing, it’s essential to compare broker fees, trade execution, account minimums, and platform features—especially as costs and currency conversions can impact your returns. Whether you prefer direct share ownership or the flexibility of CFDs, the right approach depends on your risk profile, investment strategy, and financial goals. For your convenience, a detailed side-by-side broker comparison is available further down this page to support your decision.

Our 7 tips for buying Gevo stock

The latest news about Gevo

Gevo delivered a standout Q1 2025 with revenue surging 629% and exceeding analyst expectations. This revenue increase, driven largely by the first two months of operations at the newly acquired North Dakota plant, saw quarterly revenues reach $29.11 million—significantly ahead of the $19.49 million consensus estimate. Gevo’s earnings per share loss of -$0.09 also beat expectations, suggesting operational progress and strong demand for its lower-carbon fuel products, with the North Dakota facility producing 11 million gallons of low-carbon fuel in the quarter.

The short-term technical outlook for GEVO turned neutral-to-bullish after a substantial single-day surge and robust volume. On May 30, the stock leapt 11.49% on more than triple its usual daily trading volume, closing at $1.31 and extending after-hours gains to $1.35. Technical indicators support a bullish short-term view, with the stock price currently above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages and a positive MACD signal, suggesting potential momentum continuation, though longer-term averages remain resistance.

The recent $1.46 billion U.S. Department of Energy loan guarantee has greatly reduced project and financial execution risk for Gevo’s Net-Zero 1 SAF plant. This loan—among the largest non-dilutive commitments in the sector—directly addresses one of the key capital requirements and de-risking hurdles inherent to large-scale sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) projects. For New Zealand investors and sustainability advocates, the DOE’s backing of an ATJ-to-SAF pioneer reinforces confidence that this technology could soon be more broadly commercialized and potentially validated for the Asia-Pacific, including New Zealand’s aviation sector as it intensifies decarbonisation efforts.

Strategic restructuring, including the appointment of a new CFO and the asset sale of a non-core ethanol facility, has improved earnings flexibility and lowered costs. With Oluwagbemileke Agiri now serving as CFO, and the recent $7 million sale of the Luverne, Minnesota plant trimming annual expenses by $3 million, Gevo is better positioned to align its financial structure with its high-growth, innovation-oriented focus. Enhanced governance and cost management are positive signals for institutional investors monitoring operational execution.

Gevo’s core SAF technology and business model are directly relevant to New Zealand’s net-zero aviation goals, offering partnership, import, or technology transfer potential. Gevo remains a world leader in scalable, low-carbon SAF solutions—a strategic imperative for markets like New Zealand, which is committed to net-zero domestic air travel by 2050. The company’s advances and commercial traction in the U.S. signal opportunities for engagement with airlines or policymakers in New Zealand considering sustainable fuel imports, joint ventures, or domestic SAF production leveraging proven ATJ pathways.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.