Should I buy Rio Tinto stock in 2025? Your NZ Investor’s Guide

What is Rio Tinto?

How much is the Rio Tinto stock?

The price of Rio Tinto stock is rising this week. As of now, Rio Tinto shares are trading at 4,461.0 GBP (approx. $59.95 USD), with a 24-hour increase of +0.22% and a weekly gain of +2.36%. The company boasts a market capitalization near USD 102 billion, an average daily volume of 3.22 million shares (3 months), a P/E ratio between 8.5 and 8.8, a robust dividend yield of 6.7%, and a relatively low stock beta of 0.69. With this strong yield and moderate risk, Rio Tinto offers NZ investors a balanced opportunity, though some short-term volatility may follow recent executive changes.

Our full analysis on the Rio Tinto stock

Having conducted a rigorous review of Rio Tinto’s latest financial disclosures alongside an assessment of the stock’s last three years of trading dynamics, we have synthesized a comprehensive analysis utilizing proprietary models that fuse key financial metrics, technical indicators, and peer benchmarking. The synthesis draws upon both market sentiment and fundamental trends to highlight the stock’s evolving risk/reward profile. So, why might Rio Tinto once again represent a strategic entry point into the global resources sector as we look toward 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Over the past twelve months, Rio Tinto (LSE: RIO, NYSE: RIO) has maintained a strong presence in turbulent markets, trading at 4,461 GBP (London) or approximately $59.95 USD (NYSE) as of May 2025. The shares have shown relative resilience, gaining +2.36% year-to-date despite macroeconomic volatility and a pullback from 52-week highs of 5,550 GBP. The stock’s performance has slightly lagged some peers, a reflection of global commodity price pressures and internal management changes, yet it has been notably stable compared to the broader materials sector.

Noteworthy is Rio Tinto’s ability to deliver results in line with analyst expectations for 2024, even as iron ore prices fell by 11%. Offsetting this headwind, the company achieved record net profit of $11.6 billion, driven by robust growth in aluminium and copper—two strategic commodities underpinning global decarbonisation trends. The group also posted a 1% increase in total production and a 3% rise in volumes sold, underscoring both operational and portfolio strength.

Macroeconomically, the transition to green infrastructure is strengthening demand for copper, aluminium, and lithium—markets where Rio Tinto holds a distinctive competitive edge. Robust commodity demand from Asia-Pacific, particularly from China and India, continues to underpin the group’s earnings quality, supporting a positive backdrop even as short-term sentiment has been challenged by CEO leadership transitions and tightening global credit environments.

Technical Analysis

Rio Tinto’s technical setup presently signals a potential inflection point for attentive investors. The RSI (14-day) is currently in the 40.5–42 range, transitioning toward neutral territory after a period of underperformance, which often presages the exhaustion of selling momentum. The MACD shows mixed signals (–23 in London, +0.32 in Australia), yet observable convergence around key levels is suggestive of a base-building phase.

All major moving averages (5, 20, 50, 200 days) hover slightly above the current price, indicating that traders remain cautious in the aftermath of recent declines. Importantly, the key support zone around 4,025 GBP (the 52-week low) has held firm on several tests, establishing a robust floor. The pivot at 4,463 GBP and nearby resistance at 5,550 GBP delineate a well-defined technical range, with the stock consolidating above long-term supports—a structure frequently observed ahead of medium-term reversals in cyclical stocks.

Given the combination of stabilizing price action, resilient support, and the easing of downward momentum indicators, Rio Tinto appears to be approaching a context where medium-term bullish reversals become statistically more probable. For technically-minded investors, this may present an increasingly attractive entry window.

Fundamental Analysis

The case for renewed interest in Rio Tinto is anchored in its fundamentals. Despite macro headwinds, 2024 net income expanded to $11.6 billion—up from $10.1 billion in 2023. Underlying EBITDA remained robust at $23.3 billion, and return on capital employed (ROCE) was a healthy 18%. The group’s core iron ore segment continues to generate 70% of profits from Tier-1 operations in Australia, while growth in copper and aluminium adds strategic diversification and resilience.

With a forward P/E of 8.48–8.78, Rio Tinto is trading at a valuation discount compared to the broader mining sector as well as historical averages—a function of temporary management uncertainty and commodity price normalization rather than structural deficiencies. The stock’s forward dividend yield of 6.7% ranks among the highest in the FTSE100/ASX200 peer group and is well supported by strong free cash flow ($7.1 billion in 2024). The company has continued to expand into lithium and other critical minerals, positioning itself for future-facing end-markets such as electric vehicles and grid-scale storage.

• Global operational reach (active in 35+ countries)
• Low-cost, long-life mine assets
• Conservative balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation
• Ongoing investments in decarbonisation and mining technology

Together, these factors lay the foundation for both robust near-term income and longer-term value appreciation, with analysts projecting an average target price in the $76.75–$81.40 USD range—a potential upside of nearly 30% from current levels.

Volume and Liquidity

Trading volume in Rio Tinto remains substantial and consistent, with a three-month average daily volume near 3.2 million shares. This level of liquidity reflects deep institutional participation, underlining the stock’s status as a “go-to” vehicle for exposure to the global resources market. The relatively low five-year beta (0.69) indicates modest volatility against broader equity indices, which can amplify its appeal for NZ-based investors seeking diversification.

The accessible float and robust participation create favourable conditions for dynamic valuation adjustments, enabling price discovery and limiting execution risk even for large orders—a crucial advantage in large-cap commodity stocks.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

• Energy Transition Tailwinds: Surging demand for copper and aluminium in green energy infrastructure, batteries, and power grids is poised to accelerate as governments escalate decarbonisation efforts.
• Strategic Mineral Expansion: The ramping up of lithium and other critical minerals projects not only diversifies earnings streams but also positions the group as a primary supplier for emergent technologies, including EVs and renewables.
• Aggressive Return to Shareholders: With a forward yield of 6.7% and a disciplined dividend policy, Rio Tinto offers one of the most attractive income streams in the sector, supported by healthy margins and prudent capital management.
• Innovation and ESG Leadership: Significant investments in low-carbon processing and responsible mining technology bolster the group’s ESG credentials, enhancing both reputational value and eligibility for an expanding pool of sustainability-focused capital.
• Leadership Transition: A pending CEO change in late 2025 is widely seen as an opportunity for a strategic refocusing. Market observers note that a fresh executive vision could unlock additional shareholder value, especially as the core assets are performing well.

Broader regulatory and consumer shifts toward sustainable sourcing further amplify Rio Tinto’s strategic positioning, making it not just a cyclical recovery bet but a central play on long-term structural themes.

Investment Strategies

• Short-Term: For traders, the stock’s proximity to major support suggests a favourable risk/reward setup for positions targeting a rebound toward resistance levels near 5,000–5,550 GBP (or $65 USD). The technical structure, while still on a “cautiously neutral” signal, appears poised for a potential short-term reversal if supported by positive news flow or improving commodity sentiment.
• Medium-Term: The expected Q3–Q4 catalysts—especially around the leadership transition and incoming production reports—offer the potential for re-rating. Accumulating within the current consolidation range, particularly ahead of key strategic announcements or trading updates, could capture upside as investor confidence is restored.
• Long-Term: For income-focused and macro-driven investors, Rio Tinto’s core attributes—sector leadership, broad geographic and commodity exposure, world-class asset base, and an attractive dividend—make it a compelling holding for those seeking stable returns and inflation hedging as part of a diversified resources allocation.

Positioning ahead of potential upward catalysts, while the stock is trading just above major technical support and at a valuation discount, can provide an ideal entry point before the market more fully reflects the positive factors in pricing.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Rio Tinto?

In summary, Rio Tinto boasts an enviable combination of structural strength, global scale, and robust profitability, all underpinned by a highly attractive dividend yield and exposure to commodities central to the world’s energy transformation. While near-term technical signals have been cautious, the resilient fundamentals, combined with stabilizing price action and a portfolio tailored for future demand, suggest that the stock may be on the cusp of entering a new bullish phase.

The stock’s current discount to intrinsic value, its defensive income profile, and an imminent leadership reset collaborate to create what appears to be an excellent opportunity for buy-and-hold investors and tactical traders alike. For NZ investors seeking global diversification, sustainable yield, and broad exposure to critical materials, Rio Tinto stands out as a stock where the fundamentals increasingly justify renewed interest.

With sector-leading operational capabilities and a balance sheet primed for disciplined growth, Rio Tinto seems poised to deliver compelling value. As the tide turns toward green infrastructure and resource security, the window for strategic entry into this industry bellwether appears as attractive as it has in several years—underscoring the conviction that Rio Tinto deserves close attention from forward-looking investors.

How to buy Rio Tinto stock in New Zealand?

Buying Rio Tinto stock online is both straightforward and secure for investors in New Zealand, provided you use a reputable, regulated broker. You can choose between two main ways to invest: spot buying, which means owning the real shares, or trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which track price changes without ownership. Each method has its advantages depending on your goals, capital, and risk tolerance. As you read on, you’ll find a practical comparison of brokers and platforms for each method further down this page.

Spot buying

A spot (cash) purchase means you buy real Rio Tinto shares, becoming a part-owner of the company and potentially earning dividends. New Zealand brokers typically charge a fixed commission per order—often around NZ$5 to NZ$15—when you place a buy or sell order for international stocks.

Example

Suppose you wish to invest NZ$1,000 in Rio Tinto shares listed on the NYSE, currently trading at about US$59.95 (approx. NZ$100 per share as of May 2025, exchange rate dependent). With a typical fee of NZ$5, you could acquire roughly 9 shares with your NZ$1,000 stake, the remainder covering brokerage costs.

• Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your holding would be worth approximately NZ$1,100. Result: That’s a NZ$100 gross gain—an increase of 10% on your initial investment (dividends not included).

Trading via CFD

CFDs let you speculate on the price movement of Rio Tinto shares without owning them. Instead, you enter a contract with your broker and may use leverage to amplify gains (and losses). Main costs include the spread (difference between buy/sell price) and overnight financing (if holding positions overnight). CFD trading is riskier but allows flexible strategies, including going short.

Example

You open a CFD position on Rio Tinto shares with NZ$1,000 as margin and 5x leverage, so your market exposure is NZ$5,000.

• Gain scenario: If Rio Tinto stock rises by 8%, your leveraged position gains 8% × 5 = 40%. Result: That’s NZ$400 profit on your NZ$1,000 margin (excluding spreads and overnight fees).

Final advice

Before investing, it’s important to compare New Zealand brokers to assess their fees, platforms, order execution, and regulatory protections. Your ideal approach—owning shares or trading via CFDs—will depend on your risk appetite, time horizon, and investment strategy. Explore our broker comparison further down this page to find the best fit for your objectives and to invest in Rio Tinto with confidence.

Our 7 tips for buying Rio Tinto stock

The latest news about Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto’s recent financial results show resilient performance, with profits rising despite challenging commodity prices. In its latest reporting, Rio Tinto posted a 2024 net profit of $11.6 billion, up from $10.1 billion in 2023, alongside a robust ROCE of 18%, despite an 11% decline in iron ore prices. The outcomes matched market expectations, with stronger contributions from aluminium and copper offsetting pressures in the core iron ore division. This solidifies Rio Tinto’s reputation as a defensive stock with a stable dividend, which is particularly relevant to New Zealand investors seeking exposure to the global resources sector and diversified cash flows.

The company offers a highly attractive dividend yield, underpinned by strong cash flow generation. With a forward dividend yield of 6.7% and total annual payouts of $4.02 per share, Rio Tinto’s dividend policy remains a key draw for income-focused investors in New Zealand. The $7.1 billion cash flow generated in 2024 provides ongoing support for distributions, which are appealing in the current low-interest rate environment domestically. This also complements the needs of KiwiSaver funds and New Zealand pension portfolios that are allocating toward defensive, income-generating international equities.

Analyst consensus remains positive, projecting further upside for Rio Tinto's stock price over the coming months. Despite recent technical “Sell” signals, the consensus among global equity analysts maintains a 12-month price target range of US$74.50–$81.40, suggesting 28–30% potential upside from current levels. Major institutional houses cite ongoing strength in strategic minerals (including copper and lithium), Rio Tinto’s cost-advantaged asset base, and continued exposure to green infrastructure as powerful drivers. New Zealand investors thus see Rio Tinto as a structurally important portfolio component for riding global commodity cycles and decarbonisation trends.

Rio Tinto’s focus on metals critical to the energy transition aligns well with New Zealand's green policies and infrastructure needs. The company’s strategic prioritisation of copper, aluminium, and lithium production underscores its readiness to support global energy transition projects—an area of special interest for New Zealand given the country’s progressive renewable energy goals. Rio Tinto’s strong supply relationships in the Asia-Pacific region, including existing investments and partnerships in Australia and proximity to New Zealand markets, reinforce its role as a crucial supplier for New Zealand’s construction, electricity grid upgrades, and electric vehicle sector.

Leadership changes are progressing smoothly with limited adverse impact on market sentiment in Australasia. The upcoming CEO transition, with Jakob Stausholm set to depart later in 2025 after discussions with the board, has been managed in a stable and transparent manner. While some moderate share price volatility has been observed, the company’s operational continuity, sound governance, and retention of strategic focus have limited negative effects. For New Zealand analysts and institutional investors, this signals that Rio Tinto’s risk profile remains contained, minimizing concerns over corporate instability or abrupt shifts in direction during this key period.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.