Should I buy Tencent stock in 2025? NZ Investment Insight

What is Tencent?

How much is the Tencent stock?

The price of Tencent stock is declining this week. As of now, Tencent shares trade at HKD 499.40, down 2.17% over the past 24 hours and showing a 3.59% decrease for the week. The company’s current market capitalisation stands at HKD 4.65 trillion, with an average daily volume of 29.6 million shares over the past three months.

Despite recent price volatility, Tencent remains a notable option for NZ investors seeking exposure to Asia’s dynamic tech sector.

Our full analysis on the Tencent stock

Following a rigorous review of Tencent Holdings Limited’s latest financials, a multi-dimensional analysis of its stock performance over the last three years, and synthesis of broad industry and competitor trends via proprietary algorithms, several compelling factors have emerged. The stock, now trading at HKD 499.40, is demonstrating renewed strength across technical, fundamental, and market sentiment vectors following robust Q1 2025 results and strategic pivots in artificial intelligence and digital services. So, why might Tencent stock once again become a strategic entry point into the Asian and global technology sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Tencent’s stock has rebounded impressively, gaining 25.48% over the last six months and +35.71% year-on-year as of 30 May 2025. This outpaces both Hang Seng Tech peers and many global tech stalwarts, reflecting broad investor confidence. While the stock has seen a modest pullback in the last week (-3.59%), this correction occurs against a backdrop of stellar medium-term performance—often viewed as a necessary technical pause before the next leg higher.

Positive recent events underpinning this momentum include Q1 revenues outstripping consensus forecasts at RMB 180.02 billion (+13% YoY), evidence of lasting operational resilience. Notably, strategic investments in AI product teams and cloud expansion since late 2024 have begun translating into tangible revenue growth, particularly as China’s regulatory environment turns more supportive for domestic technology champions. Moreover, the consensus target price at HKD 635.61 (with the median range extending well above current levels) illustrates ongoing upward price expectations from the analyst community.

In macroeconomic terms, easing policy measures in China, a broadening digital transformation across ASEAN, and the strengthening of cross-border technology partnerships create fertile ground for business expansion. Tencent’s sectoral positioning—in cloud, fintech, gaming, and digital advertising—places it at the intersection of several high-growth verticals poised to benefit from this positive regional backdrop.

Technical Analysis

• Current Price: HKD 499.40, near key support identified between HKD 498.60 and HKD 506.00—an area where buying interest has repeatedly emerged.
• 52-week performance: The price remains well above its 52-week low (HKD 349.00), but still 9% off its recent March 2025 high (HKD 547.00)—suggesting both upside room and a healthy correction.
• Moving Averages:
• The short-term moving average resistance is HKD 515.43, providing a near-term technical threshold. Breaking this could prompt momentum-driven inflows.
• Price action has consolidated above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, underpinning sustained bullish momentum.
• Oscillators:
• RSI (Relative Strength Index) readings have eased from overbought, now resting in a neutral-to-bullish zone, suggesting potential for renewed upward energy.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) recently executed a bullish crossover, indicating favorable intermediate-term trend dynamics.
• Support/Resistance:
• The clear definition of support at HKD 498.60–506.00 and resistance at HKD 547.00 serves as an attractive risk-reward setup for medium-term investors.

Taken together, these signals indicate robust technical underpinnings and suggest the stock is well-positioned for a new phase of market leadership.

Fundamental Analysis

• Revenue & Profitability: Quarterly revenue climbed 13% year-on-year (RMB 180.02bn vs. RMB 174.63bn expected), with operating profit rising 18%—both at the high end of sector standards. Net income came in slightly below consensus (RMB 47.8bn vs. RMB 52.2bn expected), but overall profitability remains exceptionally strong.
• Valuation:
• The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 22.38, a discount to many global tech peers despite similar or greater structural growth prospects.
• PEG and P/S ratios remain attractive by regional standards, highlighting scope for multiple expansion as growth accelerates.
• Strategic Expansion:
• AI: Substantial investment has yielded new product rollouts and greater advertising monetization, with management citing positive early returns.
• Cloud and FinTech: These areas are beginning to rival gaming as core earnings drivers, tapping into surging Asian digitalization and shifting consumer behavior.
• Ecosystem: WeChat is entrenched as the preferred super-app in China, increasingly integrating cloud, fintech, and digital services for a seamless user journey.
• Brand and Market Share:
• Tencent’s strong consumer and enterprise brand, deep local knowledge, and data moat create structural advantages vis-à-vis both regional and global rivals.

The fundamentals, supported by a modest valuation relative to historical growth, justify renewed interest and potentially position Tencent as a blue-chip growth leader in APAC portfolios.

Volume and Liquidity

• Average daily trading volume stands at 29.6 million shares, reflecting sustained institutional and retail engagement.
• Free float of 9.11 billion shares out of 9.19 billion outstanding ensures efficient price discovery and facilitates position-building for both large and small investors.
• Market capitalization at HKD 4.65 trillion confirms its status among mega-cap global tech names, which tends to moderate volatility and reduce tail risk.

This high and stable volume environment signals robust market confidence and offers highly favorable conditions for dynamic valuation adjustments whenever positive news or catalysts arise.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

• Product Innovation: Technological investments in AI, new gaming franchises, and the evolution of the WeChat ecosystem—all start to show measurable revenue impact.
• Cloud & FinTech Expansion: Enterprise cloud and payment solutions have double-digit growth trajectories, further diversifying the revenue base and enriching the risk profile.
• ESG Initiatives: Renewed focus on sustainability, digital literacy, and cybersecurity—addressing both regulatory priorities and investor preferences.
• Macro Factors:
• Regulatory clarity in China, especially for large platform businesses, is improving. This creates space for growth and more predictable operating conditions through 2025.
• Consumption recovery and rising digital adoption in China and broader Asia provide structural tailwinds, especially as Tencent is a major beneficiary of demographic and technological shifts.
• Capital discipline: Continuous buybacks and progressive dividends (yielding 0.88%) cater to both growth and income-focused shareholders.

With analyst consensus remaining firmly bullish and the target price corridor (HKD 635.61 median; range HKD 397.55–715.57) indicating significant remaining upside, the positive outlook appears well founded.

Investment Strategies

• Short-Term:
• Recent pullbacks towards technical support zones (HKD 498.60–506.00) potentially offer attractive entry points ahead of near-term innovation announcements or regulatory updates.
• Technical bounce potential towards HKD 515.43, with a retest of the March 2025 high (HKD 547.00) possible should momentum accelerate.
• Medium-Term:
• As Tencent builds on AI, gaming, and cloud catalysts through 2025, the stock could reprice toward analyst targets.
• Substantial volumes and liquidity further underpin tactical trading or portfolio allocation decisions.
• Long-Term:
• For investors seeking exposure to Asia-Pacific digital transformation, Tencent’s dominant businesses—particularly WeChat, Cloud, Gaming, and FinTech—suggest a stable compounder profile.
• Positioning during periods of consolidation, such as the current technical pause, historically enhances long-term return prospects, especially ahead of new product cycles and macro upswings.

In all cases, the current valuation, together with robust growth and supportive technicals, seems to represent an excellent opportunity for a strategic position build.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Tencent?

Viewed holistically, Tencent offers a rare balance of scale, innovation-driven growth, and strong market confidence—backed by compelling fundamentals and a robust technical setup. The confluence of double-digit revenue growth, expanding technology platforms, and accelerating shareholder returns all suggest the stock may be entering a new bullish phase.

Investors looking for diversified exposure to Asia’s technology resurgence, particularly those in New Zealand and the broader APAC region, will find Tencent’s liquidity profile, sector leadership, and attractive valuation especially appealing at current levels and in a supportive medium-term context. The fundamentals, technicals, and catalysts justify renewed interest, and conditions seem optimal for incorporating Tencent into well-constructed growth portfolios.

As technology reshapes global consumption and enterprise strategy, Tencent stands out as a key enabler of that change—and the current environment may present one of the most compelling windows for strategic exposure in recent years.

How to buy Tencent stock in NZ?

Buying Tencent stock online is now both straightforward and secure for New Zealand investors, thanks to a range of regulated brokers offering access to global markets. The two main methods are traditional spot buying (owning the actual shares) and trading via Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which lets you speculate on price movements. Each approach has its advantages and suits different investment goals—which we’ll explore in detail below. First, let’s break down how both work, before you compare brokers using our comprehensive comparison tool further down the page.

Spot Buying

A spot or cash purchase means you’re buying Tencent shares in your own name. You become a direct shareholder, benefit from potential dividends, and can hold your shares as long as you wish. Most NZ-friendly brokers charge a fixed brokerage fee per order, typically around NZ$5–NZ$10, plus small currency conversion costs, since Tencent is listed in Hong Kong.

Example

• Tencent's current price: HK$499.40
• Exchange rate: approx. HK$1 ≈ NZ$0.21 (keep in mind rates fluctuate)
• With NZ$1,000 (about HK$4,760), and a $5 brokerage fee, you could buy roughly 9 shares.
• If the Tencent share price rises 10%, your position is now worth NZ$1,100.
• Result: +NZ$100 gross gain, a +10% return on your original investment.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading lets you speculate on Tencent’s share price without owning the underlying shares. With CFDs, you can use leverage—essentially, borrowing funds from the broker—to increase your exposure. The main costs are the bid/ask spread and a daily overnight financing fee if you keep positions open. Remember: leverage increases both your potential gains and your risks.

Example

• You invest NZ$1,000 on Tencent CFDs with 5x leverage, giving NZ$5,000 market exposure.
• The share price rises by 8%.
• Your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
• Result: +NZ$400 gain (excluding fees), from your NZ$1,000 initial outlay.

Final Advice

Before investing, it’s important to compare brokers’ fees, platform features, and trading conditions, as these can vary widely. Whether you choose to become a direct shareholder or to trade via CFDs depends on your goals—long-term ownership versus short-term speculation. For a detailed comparison of NZ-friendly brokers and their offers, see our updated comparison table further down the page. Investing is accessible—just take the time to make informed choices!

Our 7 tips for buying Tencent stock

The latest news about Tencent

Tencent’s Q1 2025 results surpassed revenue expectations, highlighting strong operational performance and segment growth. Tencent reported revenue of RMB 180.02 billion (USD 25 billion) for the quarter, a 13% year-on-year increase and above consensus estimates of RMB 174.63 billion. Operating profit rose by 18% to RMB 69.3 billion, supported by robust growth in its gaming and fintech divisions, including a 14% rise in domestic gaming revenues. Although net profit slightly missed expectations (RMB 47.8 billion versus RMB 52.2 billion forecast), the solid expansion in strategically important sectors and earnings resilience underpin a broadly positive outlook, which aligns with ongoing strong interest from international investors, including those based in New Zealand who seek exposure to Asia-Pacific technology leaders.

The stock has maintained strong long-term momentum, with a one-year gain of over 35% and a favorable analyst consensus. Despite a recent weekly pullback of 3.59% and a single-day dip of 2.17% on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Tencent’s share price is up over 25% in the past six months and more than 35% year-on-year. The average analyst price target remains robust at HKD 635.61, compared to the current price near HKD 499.40, suggesting substantial upside. This reflects continued international confidence in Tencent’s strategic direction, which is relevant for New Zealand institutional investors and funds with mandates in the Asia-Pacific region, often benchmarked against global indices where Tencent is a major constituent.

Strategic investment in artificial intelligence and organizational restructuring are driving innovation and business competitiveness. Over the past year, Tencent has intensified its focus on artificial intelligence, with visible returns through enhanced advertising platforms and product innovation. The company recently reorganized its AI teams to accelerate output and improve product integration. These advances support competitiveness in global digital services, a key consideration for New Zealand-based analysts following trends in disruptive tech and their downstream effect on NZ’s digital economy and local opportunities for technology transfer.

Tencent’s cloud and fintech operations continue to expand, bolstering the company’s diversification and relevance for NZ-linked business flows. Tencent’s growth is increasingly underpinned by its cloud and fintech segments, areas that intersect with global enterprise and finance trends. The company’s ongoing development of enterprise cloud solutions and digital payment ecosystems creates potential partnership and investment opportunities that could be relevant for New Zealand businesses seeking to collaborate with or leverage Tencent technology, as well as institutional investors attracted to sector-leading, diversified revenue streams across Asia-Pacific.

Market sentiment remains optimistic with strong buy-side consensus, and Hong Kong listing ensures accessibility for NZ investors. Sentiment among market participants and analysts is broadly positive, with consensus recommendations leaning towards “buy.” The stock’s liquidity, blue-chip status, free float, and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange make it accessible to New Zealand investors via international brokerage platforms. Coupled with favorable long-term performance and dividend distribution, Tencent remains a compelling option for NZ-based portfolios seeking exposure to high-growth Asian technology and digital services.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.