Should I buy Alibaba stock in 2025? Insights for NZ Investors

What is Alibaba?

How much is the Alibaba stock?

The price of Alibaba stock is rising this week. As of now, Alibaba trades at $117.18 USD, showing a 0.38% gain over the past 24 hours, although down 2.94% for the week.

Alibaba’s low beta of 0.24 indicates lower volatility than the broader market. This relatively stable profile may appeal to NZ investors seeking global tech exposure with moderated risk.

Our complete analysis of the Alibaba stock

After a thorough review of Alibaba Group Holding Limited’s latest quarterly results and a detailed assessment of the stock’s performance over the past three years, we have applied our proprietary, multi-factor methodology—incorporating key financial metrics, technical signals, and competitive benchmarking—to the group’s NYSE-listed shares. The data highlight not just renewed momentum, but a set of structural strengths and upward catalysts that are increasingly hard to ignore. So, why might Alibaba stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global technology and e-commerce sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Alibaba’s share price has demonstrated a convincing turnaround since late 2024, with the stock closing at $117.18 USD as of 30 May 2025—a robust rebound of +48.2% year-on-year and +34.1% over the trailing six months. This upward movement places BABA among the top-performing megacap tech names in Asia, a notable outlier against a still-volatile international landscape.

The supportive backdrop extends beyond price appreciation:

• Record Cloud and AI Investment: An unprecedented $53 billion (RMB 380 billion) capital injection into cloud infrastructure and AI, announced this year, has set up Alibaba’s next growth phase and generated considerable international optimism.
• Dividend Milestone: The company paid its first-ever dividend, with a total payout of $2.5 billion, signaling confidence in robust cash flow and shareholder returns.
• International Expansion: Accelerated efforts to globalize cloud and AI product offerings signal a bold internationalization strategy, notably through high-profile partnerships and product launches.
• Macroeconomic Tailwinds: While growth in global e-commerce remains solid, China’s gradual economic stabilization and the tech sector’s regulatory normalization are providing a more predictable, investable context.

Taken together, these elements support renewed attention from institutional and retail investors alike, reinforcing the argument that Alibaba is entering a fresh, structurally supportive era.

Technical Analysis

A look at Alibaba’s technical configuration reveals a price structure that is genuinely constructive for prospective buyers:

• Relative Strength Index (14 days): At 46.1, the RSI is in neutral territory—a healthy position just below overbought levels, leaving ample room for upside before a technical pause is needed.
• MACD: Positive at 0.56, confirming bullish momentum building in the short-to-medium term.
• Moving Average Signals: Approximately 93% of moving average-based signals are bullish, underscoring a high-conviction uptrend supported by improving breadth.
• Key Price Levels:
• Support: $116.70, a well-tested technical floor with strong buyer response.
• Resistance: $119.34 (short-term), extending to $125.76 (medium-term), offering clear breakout targets for continued appreciation.
• 52-Week Range: The current level ($117.18) sits closer to the midpoint between the yearly low ($71.80) and high ($148.43), yet comfortably above all short-term and medium-term moving averages.

In sum, technical momentum appears to be building after a constructive base, supporting an optimistic view for both swing traders and longer-term participants looking to enter ahead of the next major upward move.

Fundamental Analysis

Alibaba’s fundamental profile in 2025 presents a compelling blend of high growth and discounted valuation:

• Revenue and Profitability: Q4 2025 revenue came in at RMB 236.45 billion (+7% YoY), modestly below top-line expectations but accompanied by a dramatic increase in net profit to RMB 12.38 billion (+279% YoY), and a non-GAAP EPS of $1.73—beating consensus by nearly 17%.
• Growth Projections: Analysts project an annualized revenue expansion of +6.6% and a +10% CAGR in net earnings through 2026, supported primarily by cloud, AI, and international verticals.
• Attractive Valuation: A Price/Earnings ratio of 15.73 stands well below both global tech majors and Alibaba’s own five-year historical average, suggesting the stock is materially undervalued relative to its profit growth profile. PEG and Price/Sales ratios are similarly undemanding by sector standards.
• Strategic Expansion:
• $53B earmarked for cloud and AI spend over three years underscores Alibaba’s intent to remain the dominant digital platform in Asia and expand rapidly in Europe, the Americas, and EMEA.
• Landmark partnerships, notably with SAP, and the global rollout of proprietary AI models (Qwen series) confirm Alibaba’s leadership in both innovation and execution.
• Structural Strengths:
• Market dominance in Chinese e-commerce and leading share in fast-growing cloud markets.
• Diversified ecosystem spanning payments (Alipay), logistics (Cainiao), and media, creating powerful cross-segment synergies.
• Healthy free cash flow generation ($12.92B annually), providing resilience and optionality for further investments or shareholder returns.
• Consistent leadership and effective governance under CEO Eddie Wu and Chairman Joseph Tsai.

All told, Alibaba’s core fundamentals seem to justify renewed investor interest, with valuation metrics providing a cushion for prospective buyers seeking both value and exposure to secular technology trends.

Volume and Liquidity

Liquidity remains one of Alibaba’s enduring strengths:

• Average Daily Trading Volume: 22.39 million shares (3-month average) ensures substantial market depth, facilitating seamless entry and exit for both institutional and retail participants.
• Public Float: A sizable float of 2.39 billion shares underpins dynamic pricing and attracts active fund positioning, which can support re-rating scenarios when accompanied by positive catalysts.
• Capitalization: With a $281.74 billion market cap, Alibaba remains among the world’s most actively traded technology equities—a hallmark of market confidence and long-term investability.

This healthy liquidity profile, combined with rising trading volumes during periods of momentum, substantiates growing conviction in Alibaba’s medium-term trajectory and bolsters the case for accumulation.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Alibaba sits at the intersection of multiple powerful secular trends and structural catalysts that may drive future outperformance:

• Cloud and AI Expansion: The $53B investment program is expected to deliver a step-change in Alibaba Cloud’s growth. With annual revenue for this division already up 18%, and new global partnerships being forged, the company is well-placed to capture the next digital transformation wave.
• Product and Service Innovation: Launch of Qwen AI models, international cloud products, and a fresh slate of digital commerce and fintech solutions increase Alibaba’s value proposition both inside and outside China.
• ESG and Dividends: Introduction of its inaugural dividend program not only appeals to yield-focused investors but also signals mature capital management discipline and alignment with global ESG investment trends.
• Regulatory and Macroeconomic Support: China’s gradual easing of tech-sector regulatory headwinds improves visibility, while the stabilization of economic growth and consumer confidence offers additional tailwinds.
• Sentiment: With 59 analysts covering the stock and a consensus 12-month price target of $163—a significant +39% premium to current levels—sentiment continues to tilt favourably.

In short, Alibaba’s positive catalysts are diverse and reinforce a fundamentally bullish context for 2025 and beyond.

Investment Strategies

The current setup provides investors with a spectrum of attractive entry scenarios:

• Short Term: With Alibaba trading just above key support ($116.70) and technical signals pointing to a burgeoning breakout, swing traders could see this as an ideal level to position ahead of the $119.34–$125.76 resistance zone and benefit from potential near-term momentum.
• Medium Term: The impending realization of cloud and AI investments—alongside improving revenue projections—suggests that holding through the next 2–6 quarters could allow investors to capture both capital gains and dividend flows, particularly as the market digests ongoing positive catalysts.
• Long Term: For those seeking multi-year tech megatrend exposure, Alibaba’s focus on cloud, AI, and international expansion, together with sustained free cash flow and an underappreciated valuation, seems perfectly aligned with long-term accumulation strategies.

With clear technical support, improving volumes, and a pipeline of tangible business drivers, Alibaba appears well-positioned for portfolio inclusion across different time horizons, especially for those targeting asymmetric upside in global technology.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Alibaba?

Alibaba’s 2025 profile combines all the critical ingredients of a high-conviction opportunity: aggressively accelerating earnings, a discounted valuation relative to growth, sector leadership, and a visible string of forward-looking catalysts. The convergence of positive technical signals, robust liquidity, renewed capital returns, and a marked improvement in sentiment all suggest that the stock may be entering a new bullish phase.

While it is important to monitor exogenous factors such as ongoing US-China relations and competitive activity in Asian e-commerce, Alibaba’s consistent execution and market-defining strategic investments set it apart from peers. The fundamentals, in our view, justify renewed and serious interest from investors seeking leverage to the digital economy—especially at today’s levels, just above strong technical support and ahead of a potential multi-quarter catalyst wave.

For NZ-based investors looking for exposure to global leaders with strong Asia-Pacific roots, Alibaba’s profile seems to represent an excellent opportunity to participate in the next phase of digital innovation and e-commerce growth. As always, diligent position sizing and appropriate risk management should accompany any new investment. But with its powerful blend of growth, value, and positive momentum, Alibaba stands out as a compelling case for strategic accumulation in 2025.

In sum, Alibaba presents a rare combination of resilience, growth, and deep discount—offering investors an opportunity that appears particularly timely for those considering an entry into top-tier Asian technology stocks.

How to buy Alibaba stock in NZ?

Buying Alibaba shares online is straightforward and secure for investors in New Zealand, thanks to regulated brokers that comply with strict local and international standards. You can access Alibaba (BABA) stock on the NYSE through either “spot buying”—owning shares outright—or via Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allow you to trade on price movements without owning the underlying asset. Both methods offer different benefits, fees, and risk profiles to suit various investment strategies. To make the best decision, it’s important to compare brokerage features and fees. Our broker comparison table is available further down this page.

Spot Buying

Spot buying, or a cash purchase, means you are buying Alibaba shares outright on the US market. After your order is executed by your broker, you become a direct shareholder, benefiting from dividends and any price appreciation. Fees on NZ platforms typically include a fixed trade commission (around NZD 4–10 per order) and sometimes a small FX margin, as trades are settled in USD.

Example

If Alibaba’s share price is $117.18 USD (about NZD 192) and you invest NZD 1,000, with a brokerage fee of NZD 5, you can buy roughly 5 shares (1,000 − 5 = NZD 995 / 192 ≈ 5 shares). ✔️ Gain scenario: If the Alibaba share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth NZD 1,100. Result: +NZD 100 gross gain, or +10% return on your initial investment.

Trading via CFD

Trading Alibaba via a CFD (Contract for Difference) lets you speculate on Alibaba’s share price movements without owning the actual shares. Instead, you enter a contract with your broker to exchange the difference between the opening and closing price. CFDs offer the potential to use leverage—amplifying both gains and risks. Fees include the spread (difference between buying and selling price), plus possible overnight financing costs if you hold positions after market hours.

Example

You open a CFD position on Alibaba with NZD 1,000 and 5x leverage. This gives you a market exposure of NZD 5,000. ✔️ Gain scenario: If Alibaba rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%. Result: +NZD 400 gain on your NZD 1,000 investment (excluding any additional fees).

Final Advice

Before investing, always compare brokers’ fees, available markets, and platforms, as small differences can significantly affect your long-term returns. Whether you prefer owning Alibaba shares directly for portfolio stability or trading CFDs for leveraged opportunities, your choice should align with your objectives and risk tolerance. For a tailored selection, refer to the detailed broker comparison table further down this page.

Our 7 tips for buying Alibaba stock

The latest news about Alibaba

Alibaba posts a strong earnings beat, with net profit rising 279% year-on-year in Q4 2025. Reporting on March 31, 2025, Alibaba’s quarterly net profit reached RMB 12.38 billion, significantly outpacing expectations and registering record earnings per share (non-GAAP) of $1.73, exceeding analyst forecasts by nearly 17%. Revenues grew 7% year-over-year to RMB 236.45 billion, a robust outcome given persistent sectoral competition and regulatory headwinds. This performance signals financial resilience, disciplined cost management, and a clear focus on profitability—a positive takeaway for New Zealand investors interested in sector stability and dividend possibility.

Alibaba inaugurates its first-ever cash dividend payment, signalling new shareholder value priorities. The company paid out a total dividend of $2.5 billion in late May 2025, marking the first such distribution in its history. At a yield of 0.9% and annual payout of $1.05 per share, this move is a strong signal of confidence and cash flow strength. For New Zealand investors—especially those through retirement and managed portfolios that may hold Alibaba ADRs—this dividend establishes a precedent, and all distributions are governed by international tax treaties, making them accessible to investors domiciled in NZ with appropriate tax handling.

Alibaba’s cloud business accelerates with 18% annual growth and heightened international ambitions, including Asia-Pacific. Cloud revenues climbed to RMB 30.1 billion in the latest quarter, and management reaffirmed a commitment to global expansion, explicitly seeking to grow within broader Asia-Pacific markets. With New Zealand’s tech ecosystem increasingly integrated with Chinese and Asian digital infrastructure, Alibaba’s cloud offerings—including AI models and cloud-native services—are poised for sharper regional relevance and competition, potentially benefiting NZ’s enterprises that rely on robust and cost-competitive digital services.

A landmark $53 billion investment plan in AI and cloud infrastructure reinforces Alibaba’s technological leadership and global competitiveness. Announced in the last week, this multi-year capital allocation will deepen Alibaba’s capabilities in infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and cloud, supporting its ambition to deliver next-generation products beyond China. These investments ensure Alibaba’s ability to innovate and commercialise in areas like generative AI, including language models and cloud-native enterprise solutions—sectors of direct and indirect interest to New Zealand's business community and technology professionals working across international supply chains and digital partnerships.

Technical analysis shows sustained market optimism, with bullish momentum and positive moving average signals prevailing. Over 92% of major technical indicators remain positive, corroborated by a rising MACD (+0.56) and neutral RSI (46.1), with the stock trading above key medium-term supports. While Alibaba experienced a modest pullback this week (-2.94%), its 6-month and 1-year gains (+34% and +48% respectively) reflect market endorsement of its strategic direction and growth prospects. Additionally, analyst consensus projects a potential 39% further upside to the $163 target price, which underpins constructive sentiment among research houses and institutional clients, including those serving NZ’s investment community.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.