Should I buy Volkswagen stock in 2025? NZ Insights & Tips

What is Volkswagen?

How much is the Volkswagen stock?

The price of Volkswagen stock is falling this week. As of now, Volkswagen shares are trading at €95.82, marking a 0.75% decline over the past 24 hours and a weekly drop of 0.60%. The company’s market capitalisation stands at €48.71 billion, with an average 3-month volume of 1,363,967 shares.

Volkswagen’s price-to-earnings ratio is 5.16, offering an attractive dividend yield of 6.59%, and the stock’s beta is 1.07, suggesting slightly above-average volatility.

These indicators signal potential opportunities for NZ investors willing to navigate short-term fluctuations in a leading global automotive group.

Our complete analysis of the Volkswagen stock

After a stringent review of Volkswagen’s most recent financial results and examining its stock performance over the past three years, we have harnessed our proprietary analytical algorithms—blending financial fundamentals, technical indicators, market dynamics, and peer benchmarks—to produce a comprehensive and actionable insight. Volkswagen’s current valuation, structural evolution in a changing industry, and array of forward catalysts merit renewed attention, especially as global mobility solutions race toward electrification and digitization. So, why might Volkswagen stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global automotive and technology sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Volkswagen AG (XETRA: VOW3) currently trades at €95.82, positioning the stock near the lower-middle segment of its 52-week range (€78.86 to €116.35). After a difficult 2024, which saw a one-year decline of 20.68%, the share price has demonstrated a clear resurgence, up 18.71% over the last six months. This recovery reflects a shift in sentiment: short-term volatility provided opportunistic entry points, while more recent trends indicate stabilisation and rising confidence.

Key macro and sectoral trends have contributed to this turnaround. European demand for new vehicles has rebounded, aided by easing inflation and supportive monetary policy across the Eurozone. In Q1 2025, Volkswagen recorded a notable 29% jump in Western European orders, highlighting accelerating pipeline momentum. Industry-wide, the sector is benefiting from pent-up demand, rapid electrification, and ongoing urban mobility innovation—all themes to which Volkswagen is strongly geared.

The company’s aggressive electrification push—particularly in China, with over 30 new models (and half electrified) planned by 2027—shows clear alignment with long-term global policy initiatives supporting low-emissions vehicles. Meanwhile, the robust dividend yield of 6.59% continues to make VOW3 especially attractive for income-oriented investors, even as the valuation remains at multi-year lows based on trailing earnings.

Technical Analysis

Technically, Volkswagen’s trading structure projects stability and growing bullish momentum:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14-day): 57.67, suggesting balanced market activity without evidence of overbought conditions—rather, a platform for further sustainable upside.
• MACD (12,26,9): A positive value of 1.65, reinforcing a recent buy signal and signposting trend reversal potential.
• Williams %R: At -68.54, also supporting the case for a technical upswing.
• Moving Averages: The price stands firmly above major moving averages (20-day at €94.61, 50-day at €91.29, 100-day at €91.82, 200-day at €87.93), with support from the technical community that a 200-day moving average crossover historically signals a regime shift to a bullish phase.
• Key Levels: Immediate support at €94.05 and resistance at €96.83 allow for disciplined trade management. The breakout above the 200-day average is a particularly positive harbinger, often coinciding with pronounced medium-term upside.

From a market microstructure perspective, these indicators collectively suggest Volkswagen stock may be in the early stages of a new accumulation and rally cycle—attracting both short-term traders and long-term allocators.

Fundamental Analysis

Volkswagen’s fundamentals offer compelling reasons for renewed attention:

• Revenue and Earnings Growth: Q1 2025 revenue grew 2.8% year-on-year to €77.6 billion, indicating resilience in top-line performance even amid industry headwinds. While operational profit (€2.9 billion, down -36.9%) was impacted by a one-off charge (~€1.1 billion), the underlying operating margin, when normalized, remains robust at 5.1%.
• Attractive Valuation: The stock is currently valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 5.16, deeply discounted relative to both its long-term historical average and global automotive peers. The price-to-sales (P/S) metric and forward-looking multiples similarly point to a discounted valuation, offering margin of safety for new entrants.
• Income Potential: With a 6.59% dividend yield (€6.36/share), Volkswagen provides one of the highest payouts in the sector, underpinned by strong free cash flow projections for 2025 (€2 to €5 billion for the Automotive division).
• Strategic Moat: Volkswagen retains its position as the world’s 2nd largest automaker by volume, with a €48.71 billion market capitalization and 9 million vehicles sold in 2024. Its portfolio includes leading brands across both mass-market (Volkswagen, Škoda, SEAT/CUPRA) and luxury (Audi, Porsche, Bentley, Lamborghini), ensuring both scale efficiencies and segment diversification.
• Innovation Engine: R&D focuses on electrification, digitalization, and partnerships (notably with Xpeng for electric vehicle architecture), ensuring Volkswagen remains at the forefront of next-generation vehicle development.

Despite short-term margin pressures—an expected side effect of historic investment in electrification and supply chain restructuring—the underlying earnings and cash generative capacity of the group signal that profitability is poised to rebound, especially as one-off expenses fade and scale benefits emerge.

Volume and Liquidity

Volkswagen shares maintain excellent liquidity, with a three-month average daily volume of 1.36 million shares. This liquidity profile ensures ample market depth and orderly trade execution, even for institutional-scale transactions—an attractive feature for both active and passive investors.

The relatively broad float and the absence of major ownership or activity overhangs create the right conditions for dynamic price discovery and re-rating potential as sentiment shifts. Notably, the market has consistently supported the stock in the €90–€95 region, revealing buyer conviction at technical inflection points.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Volkswagen’s short- and medium-term outlook is animated by a series of potent growth or revaluation catalysts:

• Product Innovation: A wave of new model launches, particularly in electric vehicles and electrified drivetrains. Over 20 new electric or hybrid models are planned for the Chinese market alone by 2027, securing a competitive foothold in the world’s largest auto market.
• Electrification Transition: With one in five vehicles sold in Western Europe now fully electric, Volkswagen’s pivot not only pre-empts regulatory pressures but also appeals to shifting consumer preferences and ESG mandates.
• Order Book Strength: Close to 1 million new vehicles in backlog in Western Europe at quarter’s end, providing strong short-term earnings visibility and production stability.
• Strategic Partnerships: The unveiling of an AI-driven ADAS system for smart EVs underscores Volkswagen’s technology integration, crucial for remaining relevant as software becomes a core product differentiator.
• ESG Momentum: Volkswagen’s explicit focus on sustainability, responsible sourcing, and carbon neutrality resonates with a growing cohort of ESG-focused investors globally.
• Sectoral Tailwinds: Easing input costs (notably raw materials), a potential pickup in Chinese vehicle sales growth, and further monetary policy normalization all bolster the macro context.

Looking ahead, management has reiterated expectations of up to 5% revenue growth in 2025 with normalized operating margins of 5.5–6.5%, as well as robust projected cash flows—creating ample levers for shareholder returns, strategic reinvestment, or further partnerships.

Investment Strategies

Investors considering exposure to Volkswagen benefit from several possible tactically and strategically sound entry profiles:

• Short-Term:
• Capitalise on strong technical momentum following the breach of the 200-day moving average; potential exists for a rapid move toward the consensus price target of €119.01 (+24.2% upside from current levels).
• Take advantage of current support (€94.05) as a base for near-term reversals or range trading, particularly as volume spikes suggest accumulation.
• Medium-Term:
• Accumulate on minor pullbacks, anticipating new model launches and Q2/Q3 order flow momentum.
• Monitor sector newsflow, especially relating to technology partnerships and regulatory tailwinds, which may act as further positive catalysts.
• Long-Term:
• Consider Volkswagen’s ongoing transformation as a leader in electrification, digital platforms, and global scalability—a foundation for consistent compounding returns.
• Dividend investors are well-served by the current yield, supported by a strong balance sheet and ongoing cash generation.

Across all timeframes, the current constellation of valuation, technical triggers, and forward catalysts presents an unusually attractive risk/reward profile for new or expanded positions.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Volkswagen?

Drawing together the confluence of strong technical indicators, deeply attractive valuation, and robust forward-looking catalysts, Volkswagen stock appears to represent an excellent opportunity for investors seeking exposure to global mobility innovation, compelling income, and sector-leading scale. The ongoing transformation toward smart, electric, and connected vehicles is gathering pace, and Volkswagen’s industrial strengths position it well to thrive in this new paradigm. The share price, still trading well below its fundamental value by several measures, may be setting the foundation for a new bullish phase as the company’s electrification strategy and order-book momentum materialise over the coming quarters.

While inherent cyclical and geopolitical risks remain, the structural outlook, supported by a world-class brand portfolio, positive cash flows, and a substantial innovation engine, offers investors substantial upside potential.

Volkswagen therefore stands on the cusp of a dynamic new chapter—one that seems to justify renewed attention from serious investors in New Zealand and globally. The stock’s current consolidation at attractive technical and valuation levels, in tandem with accelerating strategic catalysts, suggest it is a name to watch closely as the automotive and tech sectors converge. Now may be the ideal moment for long-term gain-seekers to sharpen their focus on Volkswagen as a core holding in a forward-thinking equity portfolio.

How to buy Volkswagen stock in New Zealand?

Buying Volkswagen stock online is straightforward and secure when you use a regulated brokerage in New Zealand. Investors can choose between two main methods: purchasing shares outright (known as spot or cash buying) or trading using Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which enable leveraged positions. Each approach offers unique advantages, letting you tailor your exposure and style. Below, we break down how each method works, with concrete examples and practical tips. Curious about which broker to choose? You’ll find a broker comparison further down the page to help you make the best decision.

Spot Buying

A cash (spot) purchase of Volkswagen stock means you directly own the underlying shares, just as if you’d bought property. You’re entitled to any potential dividends and have the right to vote as a shareholder. Typically, NZ-based brokers charge a fixed fee for each order—commonly around NZ$5 to NZ$15 per trade.

Example

Suppose Volkswagen shares are trading at €95.82 each (about NZ$170, as of May 2025, factoring in currency rates). With a NZ$1,000 stake (allowing NZ$5 for brokerage), you could purchase approximately 5.8 shares—rounded down, you'd buy 5 shares for NZ$850, plus NZ$5 in fees, leaving a small cash remainder.

✔️ Gain scenario: If the price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth NZ$935 (NZ$850 + 10%).

Result: +NZ$85 gross gain, i.e. +10% on your investment (before currency fluctuations and taxes).

Trading via CFD

CFD trading lets you speculate on Volkswagen’s share price without actually owning the stock. With CFDs, you can gain exposure to price movements with the option to use leverage—meaning you can control a larger position with less capital. The typical costs are the spread (the difference between buy/sell prices) and overnight financing fees if you keep your position open beyond a trading day.

Example

You decide to open a CFD position on Volkswagen with NZ$1,000, opting for 5:1 leverage. This gives you market exposure of NZ$5,000.

✔️ Gain scenario: If Volkswagen’s price climbs by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.

Result: +NZ$400 (on your initial NZ$1,000), excluding potential spread and overnight fees. Remember, while gains can be magnified, losses are also amplified with leverage.

Final Advice

Before investing, it’s important to compare the fees, features, and protections offered by different online brokers—these can affect your overall returns significantly. The optimal method—cash buying or CFD trading—depends on your individual goals, risk appetite, and investment timeline. Take the time to review the detailed broker comparison further down this page to find an option that suits your needs as a New Zealand investor. Above all, invest confidently, knowing that you have a range of accessible, regulated options at your fingertips.

Our 7 tips for buying Volkswagen stock

The latest news about Volkswagen

Volkswagen shares have demonstrated strong technical momentum, recently crossing their 200-day moving average. This key bullish signal, reinforced by multiple technical indicators such as the MACD and Williams %R, points to sustained buyer interest and improves confidence for investors in all markets, including those in New Zealand who watch global trends for local portfolio allocations. Such technical patterns are often precursors to stronger institutional inflows, which can benefit both international and regionally-exposed funds holding Volkswagen stock.

Consensus price targets remain positive, with analysts surveying a potential 24% upside from the current price. This robust consensus, coupled with an attractive dividend yield of 6.59%, enhances Volkswagen’s appeal for yield-seeking investors, including many New Zealand institutions and private investors looking to diversify internationally. The combination of value (PER 5.16) and potential capital appreciation is particularly constructive for KiwiSaver scheme managers and wealth managers benchmarking against global equity indices.

Volkswagen’s electrification strategy continues to accelerate, with rapid product launches in core and expanding markets. Recent announcements confirm more than 30 new models for China by 2027, over half of which will be electric, and every fifth Volkswagen sold in Western Europe now being fully electric. These developments carry weight in Oceania, as New Zealand has a highly electrified vehicle market and strict emissions regulations, positioning Volkswagen as an increasingly relevant player for local importers, fleet operators, and environmentally conscious car buyers.

The company registered a 29% increase in order intake in Western Europe during Q1 2025, supporting earnings visibility despite wider sector volatility. This surge in orders stabilizes earnings outlook and supply chain utilization, which is constructive for Volkswagen’s Asia-Pacific sourcing and distribution operations that intersect with New Zealand, notably via the group’s Audi, Skoda, and VW brands widely distributed in the country.

Strong underlying fundamentals are reflected in Volkswagen’s status as the world’s second-largest automaker, extensive premium brand portfolio, and recent resilience in sales volumes. For New Zealand investors, this strengthens the quality and global diversification of any exposure to the stock, while the confirmed partnership-driven R&D focus on digitalisation and smart-vehicle technology aligns with New Zealand’s strategies around sustainable mobility and digital innovation within the transport sector.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.