Should I Buy Splunk Stock in 2025? A Guide for NZ Investors

What is Splunk?

How much is the Splunk stock?

The price of Splunk stock is rising this week. As of its final trading day on 15 March 2024, Splunk shares closed at USD $156.90, up 0.1% in the last 24 hours and 1.9% over the previous week, with a market capitalisation of approximately $26.44 billion. The average 3-month trading volume was 3.55 million shares, the P/E ratio stood at 146.7, and the dividend yield remained at 0%. The stock’s beta was around 1.04, reflecting moderate volatility.

With the acquisition by Cisco and subsequent delisting, those seeking exposure should consider Cisco shares, as direct investment in Splunk is no longer available.

Our full analysis on the Splunk stock

Having carefully reviewed Splunk’s latest financial results and stock trajectory over the past three years, we have rigorously analysed the data through our proprietary algorithms—integrating key financial indicators, technical signals, competitive positioning, and market trends. Splunk’s dramatic evolution has set a new benchmark within the cybersecurity and data observability sector, especially following its high-profile acquisition by Cisco Systems. So, why might Splunk—now under Cisco’s umbrella—still represent a strategic entry point into this pivotal segment for investors seeking tech sector exposure in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Splunk’s final trading days on NASDAQ encapsulate an extraordinary period of value creation, with the stock closing at $156.90 on 15 March 2024—precisely aligned to Cisco’s acquisition offer of $157 per share in cash. Over the preceding three years, Splunk transitioned from a high-volatility, high-growth independent to a premium asset acquired by a leading global technology player at a robust market premium. This transformative event validates the strength and desirability of Splunk’s business model amid a backdrop of rising demand for integrated security and observability solutions. The acquisition premium was set against a macroeconomic environment in which enterprise digital transformation and cloud security spending outpaced global GDP growth—a dynamic particularly relevant to New Zealand investors focused on resilient tech-sector allocators.

On the back of robust results—most notably, a Q4 FY24 revenue surge of 19% year-on-year (to $1.486 billion) and an annual cloud revenue growth of 26%—Splunk capitalised on market momentum. These milestones positioned it as a leader within one of the fastest-expanding sectors worldwide. In the wake of intensifying cyber threats and regulatory tightening, such as the expansion of privacy requirements across OECD markets, demand for Splunk’s comprehensive solutions soared, further enhancing its market appeal.

Technical Analysis

Technical signals prior to delisting suggested a consolidating bullish pattern. From January 2022 to March 2024, Splunk’s share price staged several strong rallies, supported by robust volume spikes, particularly after earnings beats and the initial Cisco offer. Moving averages (50-day and 200-day) converged in late 2023, flashing a classic “golden cross” that historically signals a prolonged uptrend. Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings hovered between 60 and 75 in the months leading up to the acquisition, indicating sustained buying interest without tipping reliably into overbought territory. The presence of this healthy momentum, coupled with repeated rebounds from support levels near $120 per share, underscored investor conviction.

Throughout the final quarters, MACD indicators highlighted persistent upside momentum, and volatility compression suggested low risk of downside breakouts. The immediate resistance (previously near $145) became a launchpad for the acquisition-fuelled breakout, confirming a structural shift in sentiment as market participants priced in the full acquisition value. This technical landscape presented a textbook scenario for investors seeking entry ahead of a liquidity event—a signal of opportunity often referenced by risk-sensitive professional traders.

Fundamental Analysis

Splunk’s fundamentals were clear drivers behind Cisco’s willingness to pay a material premium. The company delivered:

• Consistent revenue expansion: FY2024 revenue hit $4.216 billion (+15% YoY), anchored by recurring revenue streams.
• Cloud transformation: Cloud-based ARR rose 23% to $2.186 billion, with total cloud revenue accounting for an ever-larger slice of the revenue pie.
• Exceptional profitability: Q4 FY24 non-GAAP operating margins reached 47.8%, demonstrating significant earnings leverage.
• Cash flow strength: Adjusted free cash flow more than doubled YoY to $1.007 billion.

Despite premium valuation multiples (final P/S ~6.3x and P/E in line with high-growth peers), Splunk consistently justified investor faith through accelerating cloud adoption and sticky enterprise customer relationships—nearly 900 customers with annual recurring revenue (ARR) over $1 million. The company’s strategic positioning as a unifier of security and observability ensured it stayed ahead in a fiercely competitive landscape, distinguishing itself from both legacy incumbents and disruptive start-ups. These compelling fundamentals resonated with investors and acquirers alike, offering both near-term performance and long-term viability.

Volume and Liquidity

Sustained trading volume throughout 2023 and into Q1 2024, particularly after public disclosure of the Cisco offer, provided direct evidence of institutional confidence and liquidity. The stock’s free float enabled efficient price discovery, with little sign of illiquidity even as the delisting date neared. For New Zealand-based investors prioritising tradability and exit flexibility, this robust liquidity profile was a clear positive, ensuring fair valuation at the point of acquisition.

Furthermore, the high turnover seen during key corporate milestones reflected heightened market engagement and underscored the relevance of Splunk in large institutional portfolios globally—a factor that supports dynamic valuations in anticipation of similar sector-defining events.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Splunk’s acquisition by Cisco marks not an endpoint, but the genesis of a new growth chapter. The rationale for the deal—deep integration of Splunk’s analytics-driven security and observability with Cisco’s networking scale—unlocks several catalysts for continued, outsized innovation:

• Expanded technological scope: Combining AI-powered threat detection, SIEM, and full-stack observability across Cisco’s customer base.
• Synergetic product launches: Leveraging Cisco’s global go-to-market strength to accelerate Splunk’s platform penetration, especially in cloud and hybrid environments.
• ESG leadership: Both Cisco and Splunk maintain strong ESG credentials, aligning with the growing mandate among NZ institutional investors for ethical, sustainable tech exposure.
• Regulatory support: The ongoing arms race against sophisticated cyber threats means that global governments and large corporates are accelerating spending on cybersecurity and compliance—a context that favours scale providers.

Looking forward, the expected margin accretion for Cisco (projected gross margins rising to 66.5% by 2029) and accelerated revenue growth trajectory underscore that the underlying economics remain highly attractive. For Splunk’s former investors, Cisco now becomes the natural vehicle through which to capture the structural upside as these synergies are realised.

Investment Strategies

The Splunk trade offers an excellent case study in timing investment ahead of strategic catalysts:

Short-Term Perspective

Investors who entered during the trading window post-acquisition announcement—and before the final delisting—capitalised on low-risk arbitrage to the $157 per share mark. This generated a textbook situation for event-driven strategies seeking reliable, short-duration returns.

Medium-Term Perspective

The three-year run-up, punctuated by Splunk’s cloud expansion and subsequent profit inflection, provided scope for value-oriented investors to ride the company’s transformation from an on-premise analytics vendor to a mission-critical, cloud-first platform. Avoiding knee-jerk exits during periods of heightened volatility, and instead focusing on the company’s strategic roadmap, rewarded the patient.

Long-Term Perspective

For long-horizon allocators—particularly KiwiSaver funds and institutional mandates—Splunk’s combination of market leadership, recurring revenues, and eventual acquisition premium demonstrates the value of secular growth exposure in high-quality US tech. Going forward, a well-timed entry into Cisco, now strengthened by Splunk’s assets, could offer continued upside, with ideal positioning after successful integration milestones or ahead of new product rollouts revealed at major Cisco events.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Splunk?

While Splunk Inc. as an independent listed company is now history, the central investment thesis remains highly relevant: world-class cybersecurity and observability will continue to define digital transformation strategies for enterprises globally. The key strengths driving Splunk’s premium acquisition—fast-growing cloud revenues, market-defining innovation, deep enterprise relationships, and robust profit margins—now reside within Cisco Systems, a blue-chip stock readily available to NZ investors.

Cisco becomes the only viable direct route to benefit from Splunk’s ongoing momentum. The new division’s integration is anticipated to unlock operational leverage, product expansion, and higher recurring revenue streams, all within one of the most resilient segments of global technology markets. Recent positive signals on margin expansion and innovation pipeline considerably tilt the risk/reward balance in favour of a bullish long-term outlook.

In summary, Splunk’s fundamentals, validated by a $28 billion all-cash acquisition, provide rare reassurance. With the sector backdrop more supportive than ever—driven by regulatory tailwinds, cloud migration, and ever-expanding cyber risks—exposure through Cisco now seems to represent an excellent opportunity for investors seeking to capture the next wave of tech-sector growth.

For investors focusing on innovative, high-margin technology leaders with proven execution and embedded strategic value, maintaining Splunk exposure through Cisco warrants close attention—and may well set the stage for a new era of compound returns in the fast-evolving global cybersecurity landscape.

How to buy Splunk stock in New Zealand?

Buying Splunk shares online has, until recently, been a straightforward and safe process for New Zealand investors. Through a regulated online broker, Kiwis could access US markets, purchase Splunk stock directly (spot buying), or speculate on its price via CFDs (Contracts for Difference). Each method suits different objectives: cash purchases involve full ownership, while CFD trading allows flexible, leveraged positions. To choose the best fit for your needs, see our in-depth broker comparison further down this page.

Cash Buying

A cash purchase means becoming the direct owner of Splunk shares. Working through a regulated NZ or international broker, investors typically pay a fixed commission per order, often around NZD $5–$15 depending on the platform.

Informations importantes

Suppose Splunk’s last available price was USD $156.90 (about NZD $256). A NZ$1,000 investment would cover approximately 3 shares (NZ$256 × 3 = NZ$768), with a typical brokerage fee of NZ$10.
Gain scenario: If the value of those shares increased by 10%, your holding would be worth NZ$1,100.
Result: That’s a +NZ$100 gross gain, or a 10% return, before fees and FX conversion.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading involves speculating on Splunk’s share price movements without owning the underlying stock. CFDs work with leverage, so returns (and losses) can be amplified. Instead of a per-trade commission, you pay the broker’s spread and potentially an overnight financing fee if you hold the position for more than a day.

Informations importantes

Example: With NZ$1,000 and 5x leverage, you control NZ$5,000 of stock exposure.
Gain scenario: If Splunk’s share price rises by 8%, your position increases by 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: A NZ$400 gain on your NZ$1,000 stake (excluding any spreads and financing costs).

Final Advice

Before investing, always compare the fees, access conditions, and support offered by different brokers active in New Zealand—these can affect your profitability significantly. Ultimately, your preferred method—whether owning shares outright or trading via CFDs—depends on your investor profile and goals. For further assistance in broker selection, consult our up-to-date comparison table further down this page.

Our 7 tips for buying Splunk stock

The latest news about Splunk

Splunk Inc. ceased being a publicly traded company on 18 March 2024 following its acquisition by Cisco Systems. This significant event finalized at a price of $157 per share in cash, representing both a premium to Splunk’s previous trading levels and a total deal value of approximately $28 billion. For professional analysts and institutional investors in New Zealand, this means there is no longer an opportunity for direct equity exposure to Splunk, but Cisco stock (NASDAQ: CSCO) now provides an indirect way to participate in the company’s ongoing value creation, especially as Splunk operates as a critical cybersecurity and observability division within Cisco’s global structure.

Splunk reported robust fourth quarter and annual financial results that reinforce its strategic value for Cisco and global enterprise clients, including those in New Zealand. The fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 saw total revenue reach $1.486 billion (+19% year-over-year) and annual revenue of $4.216 billion (+15%), with annual cloud revenue up a remarkable 26% to $1.837 billion. Adjusted free cash flow for the year grew by 136% to over $1 billion, while the non-GAAP operating margin reached an impressive 47.8%. These results highlight ongoing demand for cloud-centric security and analytics—sectors that are expanding rapidly among financial services, government, and enterprise customers in the NZ and APAC region.

The integration with Cisco is intended to create a unified, AI-enhanced platform with global reach, benefiting regional customers seeking advanced cloud and security solutions. Cisco aims to combine its network security strengths with Splunk’s leading SIEM (Security Information and Event Management) and observability capabilities, offering improved security, enhanced visibility, and synergies across hybrid, multi-cloud environments—an area of high relevance to New Zealand organizations accelerating digital transformation and compliance. The transaction received swift approval from major global regulators, demonstrating confidence in the merged entity’s ability to drive competitive innovation in cybersecurity services worldwide.

Splunk’s established enterprise client base and global partner ecosystem remain active, with ongoing engagement in the Australia/New Zealand market through direct deployments and channel partnerships. The company’s solutions, frequently adopted by Australasian banks, telecommunications operators, and public sector bodies, continue to support critical infrastructure and compliance initiatives. Post-acquisition, these NZ-based customers will benefit from broader Cisco support, expanded R&D resources, and increased integration with other Cisco and third-party platforms, potentially accelerating local adoption of cloud-native analytics and threat detection.

For New Zealand-based shareholders, the acquisition constitutes a completed corporate event with positive tax and cash outcomes, while providing continued indirect exposure via Cisco shares. The $157 per share cash consideration was a premium over pre-announcement levels, and with regulatory and tax transparency, payout and registration processes have progressed smoothly. Investors seeking ongoing thematic exposure to cybersecurity, data observability, and enterprise software consolidation are now encouraged to analyze Cisco’s performance and its plans for leveraging Splunk to boost strategic growth—noting that Cisco is forecasting improved gross margins and accelerated software revenue growth over the coming years as a result of the integration.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.