Should I buy American Airlines stock in 2025? Full NZ Investor Guide

What is American Airlines?

What is the price of American Airlines stock?

The price of American Airlines stock is falling this week. As of now, AAL is trading at $11.40 USD, reflecting a -0.26% drop over the past 24 hours and a -1.88% decrease for the week.

The stock’s beta is 1.32, signaling above-average volatility. Investors in New Zealand should note that while American Airlines is navigating a challenging environment, its high beta may offer both risks and opportunities depending on market trends.

Our full analysis of the American Airlines stock

After a thorough review of American Airlines’ most recent financial results alongside its medium-term share price action, we have leveraged a blend of leading financial metrics, advanced technical signals, and in-depth sector intelligence—processing them through our proprietary quantitative models. This holistic methodology, which weighs both micro and macro factors across the airline industry, positions us to assess the company’s investment profile as we look ahead. So, why might American Airlines stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global transport sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Despite a challenging start to 2025, American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL) has recently shown signs of stabilisation following a year-to-date decline of -34.60%, and a modest -1.89% slip over the trailing twelve months. The current share price of $11.40 (as of 30 May 2025) sits at the lower third of its 52-week range ($8.50–$19.10), suggesting that much of the market’s caution may already be priced in. This underperformance has unfolded as airlines globally have faced short-term headwinds, notably uncertain macroeconomic signals and fuel price volatility.

However, within this context, American Airlines has achieved notable milestones. The carrier delivered record annual revenues of $54.2 billion in 2024, highlighted by Q4’s all-time-high quarterly sales of $13.7 billion. American’s robust network—serving over 350 destinations with 1,562 aircraft—enables it to capture pent-up leisure and corporate travel demand as international borders remain fully open post-pandemic. Moreover, operational resilience has been reinforced by the early achievement of its $15 billion gross debt reduction target, a full year ahead of schedule, restoring financial flexibility and lending greater visibility to its balance sheet.

From a sectoral lens, the major US airlines are positioned to benefit from a rebound in both consumer sentiment and travel expenditure, with improving passenger numbers (226.4 million carried in 2024, +7.5% YoY) and elevated load factors (84.9%). For New Zealand investors, exposure to the cyclical US airline sector at the current juncture may offer a portfolio diversifier well aligned with expected macro recovery trajectories into 2025.

Technical Analysis

American Airlines’ chart structure points to a potential reversal zone after a protracted correction. Momentum oscillators present an intriguing setup for bullish participants:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI recently hovered near the 35–40 mark—a zone that historically signals an oversold condition and often precedes price recovery phases in liquid US equities.
• Moving Averages: The 50-day moving average, while below the 200-day, has begun to flatten, with price consolidating above recent support at $8.50. The stock’s current price, far from its 12-month peak, suggests downside may be contained—especially as heavy-volume turnover near cycle lows often signals accumulation by value-oriented institutional investors.
• MACD: Early signs of bullish divergence on daily charts indicate a loss of bearish momentum, and any cross to positive territory in the coming weeks could mark the onset of a sustainable uptrend.

Key support has consistently held in the $8.50–$9.00 zone, and should US macro data or sector catalysts trigger a rerating, technical upside toward the $13.00–$14.00 area is plausible in the short to medium term. The preponderance of technical evidence suggests AAL is at, or near, an optimal entry level for new capital.

Fundamental Analysis

American Airlines’ underlying fundamentals underpin the argument for a constructive outlook:

• Revenue Growth and Profitability: 2024 set records for both revenue ($54.2 bn, up year-on-year) and annual net profit ($846 million). The company’s free cash flow also hit an all-time high of $2.2 billion, reflecting disciplined cost controls and efficient capital deployment.
• Strategic Expansion and Partnerships: The newly-announced 10-year exclusive partnership with Citi for the co-branded AAdvantage® credit card stands out as a major value unlocker. In 2024, AAdvantage® partnerships generated $6.1 billion (+17% YoY), with potential for further accretive growth as airline-loyalty revenues become less cyclical and more predictable.
• Valuation Metrics: A forward price/earnings ratio (P/E) of 11.4 (TTM), and a range toward 13.2, is attractively below the broader S&P 500 average, while the price/sales ratio (well under 1x) reflects a discounted enterprise valuation. Analyst consensus targets a 17% upside at $13.37, highlighting both fundamental and relative value appeal, especially in contrast to more fully-valued transport peers.
• Structural Strengths: American’s extensive primary hubs, a diverse global route structure, its OneWorld alliance leadership, and relentless capacity optimisation reinforce an enduring brand with significant scale economies.

Altogether, these factors suggest a resilient company that is aggressively adapting to post-COVID realities while laying firm strategic groundwork for the next phase of cyclical recovery.

Volume and Liquidity

AAL’s shares remain some of the most liquid globally, with average daily trade volume at 65.88 million shares. This depth is a clear indicator of ongoing institutional interest and ensures that price discovery remains robust—even during periods of volatility. The high float, accompanied by regular turnover, has historically enabled American Airlines to attract dynamic valuations in line with macro and company-specific improvements.

Liquidity of this nature is crucial, allowing both New Zealand institutional and retail investors to efficiently transact and adjust positioning without fear of execution risk. This “high-beta, high-liquidity” profile further augments the stock’s suitability for tactical allocation, particularly as signs of sector stabilisation multiply.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several catalysts appear poised to reawaken market interest in American Airlines over the next 6–18 months:

• Exclusive 10-year Citi Card Alliance: The new AAdvantage® partnership incentivises retention and spend for millions of U.S. travellers, offering annuity-like cash flows and diversifying revenue streams away from cyclical fare volatility.
• Record Cash Generation: Surging free cash flow ($2.2 billion in 2024) arms American with ample capital to further deleverage, invest in fleet renewal, and pursue bolt-on tech and customer experience innovation.
• Macro Tailwinds: As GDP growth stabilises and discretionary consumer spending rebounds, pent-up travel demand—especially long-haul and premium—could accelerate faster than current consensus implies, acting as a sector-wide catalyst.
• Debt Reduction Milestone: Executing its debt reduction program a year early puts American well ahead of key rivals and could unlock upgrades from rating agencies, potentially lowering cost of capital and freeing up cash for reinvestment.
• ESG Initiatives and Fleet Renewal: Investments in sustainability (fuel efficiency, carbon offsetting, next-generation aircraft) are winning favour with both corporate customers and asset managers seeking green exposure.
• Operational Resilience: American has posted one of its best operational records since its merger, providing a platform to capture market share as industry-wide consolidation continues.

Notably, the combination of these positive drivers, when assessed alongside resilient US consumer indicators and supportive regulatory policy, may serve as a tailwind for the entire airline sector as 2025 unfolds.

Investment Strategies

For those considering exposure, American Airlines displays attributes suitable for a variety of time horizons:

• Short-term (1–3 months):
• The convergence of oversold technicals, robust volume, and proximity to multi-year cycle support levels suggests that opportunistic entries could benefit from a tactical rebound play, particularly if sentiment in the broader travel sector turns constructive following upcoming earnings or macro announcements.
• Medium-term (3–12 months):
• As AAL executes on partnership-driven ancillary growth, there’s upside from both multiple expansion and catch-up to sector averages. Exposure ahead of further catalysts—such as improved quarterly earnings or dividend reinstatements—may be especially appropriate for swing traders or active portfolio managers.
• Long-term (12–36 months):
• For buy-and-hold investors, American Airlines offers leverage to a global travel megatrend, supported by a de-risked capital structure and compelling valuation. As global passenger volumes normalise and balance sheet initiatives compound, AAL stands to regain lost ground, potentially outperforming sector and index benchmarks.

From a portfolio construction perspective—especially for NZ investors already overweight local transport and energy equities—an allocation to a blue-chip US airline at a cyclical nadir may provide diversification, asymmetric risk/reward, and exposure to USD returns.

Is it the Right Time to Buy American Airlines?

In summary, American Airlines’ combination of operational momentum, accelerating cash generation, visible deleveraging, and innovative partnership initiatives collectively present an investment case that seems to represent an excellent opportunity—especially as the broader US aviation sector transitions from uncertainty to resilience. While cyclical factors and economic sensitivity are ever-present, the track record of disciplined execution, sector leadership, and a clear roadmap for both profitability and shareholder value enhancement all suggest that the stock may be entering a new bullish phase.

The convergence of positive technical, fundamental, and momentum factors—combined with ongoing improvements in sentiment and a backdrop of supportive industry dynamics—justifies renewed interest from investors seeking both growth potential and value re-rating. As 2025 approaches, American Airlines stands distinctively positioned to benefit from any tailwinds in global travel demand and economic stability, making a compelling case for strong consideration in diversified portfolios.

As markets worldwide reposition for the next leg of travel and transport sector recovery, American Airlines offers a rare confluence of technical setup, fundamental solidity, and strategic catalysts—an opportunity that active investors would do well to examine closely.

How to buy American Airlines stock in NZ?

Buying American Airlines shares online is a straightforward and secure process when you use a regulated broker licensed to serve New Zealand investors. You have two main ways to invest: buying the shares outright (“spot buying”) or trading them via Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which let you speculate on price movements. Each method has its own advantages and fee structures. Below, we’ll walk through how both approaches work, with practical examples—plus there’s a broker comparison section further down the page to help you choose the right platform.

Spot Buying

A cash or “spot” purchase means you’re buying actual American Airlines (AAL) shares, which you will then own directly in your trading account. You profit if the share price rises, and you’re entitled to any future dividends (note: AAL does not currently pay a regular dividend). Most NZ-friendly brokers charge a fixed commission per US share order, typically around NZ$5 per trade.

Practical Example

Example: Suppose American Airlines shares are US$11.40 each (approx. NZ$19 at an exchange rate of 1 USD = 1.67 NZD). With NZ$1,000, after a NZ$5 brokerage fee, you can buy about 52 shares (NZ$1,000 – NZ$5 = NZ$995; NZ$995 ÷ NZ$19 ≈ 52 shares).

✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price rises 10% (to US$12.54/NZ$20.90), your holding is now worth NZ$1,092 (52 × NZ$20.90), a gross gain of NZ$97—+10% on your investment.

Trading via CFD

CFDs (“Contracts for Difference”) allow you to trade American Airlines without actually owning the shares. You can take advantage of both rising and falling prices, and you have the option to use leverage (borrowed funds), amplifying your exposure and potential returns (as well as risks). CFD brokers typically charge a “spread” (the gap between buy and sell prices) and an overnight financing cost if you hold leveraged positions for more than a day.

Practical Example

Example: With an NZ$1,000 deposit and 5x leverage, you are exposed to NZ$5,000 worth of American Airlines shares. If the stock climbs 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.

✔️ Gain scenario: Your NZ$1,000 investment now produces a NZ$400 profit (excluding fees and currency effects)—but remember, losses would also be multiplied.

Final Advice

Before investing, it’s crucial to compare the fees, currency conversion rates, and terms offered by different brokers—this can make a significant difference to your returns. Your optimal choice depends on whether you prefer owning shares directly for the long term, or trading price movements with more flexibility and leverage. To make an informed decision, refer to our detailed broker comparison further down the page.

Our 7 tips for buying American Airlines stock

The latest news about American Airlines

American Airlines tightened partnership with Citi through a new 10-year exclusive co-branded credit card deal. The agreement, announced within the last week, is expected to unlock significant incremental value for both parties and fortify the company’s AAdvantage® loyalty program, which generated $6.1 billion in partner revenues in 2024, up 17% year-over-year. A stronger loyalty ecosystem not only improves cash flows but also enhances customer retention—an important consideration for global travelers, including premium transpacific segments between North America and Australasia, a corridor relevant to New Zealand-based business and leisure travelers.

Free cash flow hit a new record of $2.2 billion in 2024, supporting financial resilience and operational flexibility. This robust cash generation has strategic importance not only for American Airlines’ ongoing operations but also underpins future fleet and service investments, which may indirectly benefit competition and pricing across international alliances, including oneworld®. New Zealand travelers and investors may interpret this financial strength as a foundational signal for network stability and the company’s ability to weather macroeconomic volatility.

American Airlines achieved its ambitious $15 billion debt reduction target a full year ahead of schedule, signalling improved balance sheet health. Rapid deleveraging may reduce cost of capital, enhance credit ratings, and allow for potential reinvestment or network enhancement. For New Zealand-centric portfolios and regional institutional investors, this milestone increases confidence in American’s sustainability and capacity for recovery, particularly as the airline maintains its role as a major oneworld® partner and gateway to the Americas.

Despite a Q1 2025 net loss, results outperformed analyst expectations, indicating operational resilience amid challenging conditions. American posted a smaller-than-estimated loss per share (-$0.59 versus consensus -$0.62) and maintained industry-leading completion factors. While Q1 revenue came in slightly below forecasts, this overperformance on earnings reflects disciplined cost control and efficiency despite ongoing demand softness—a dynamic widely monitored by global investors, especially those exposed to cyclical travel trends that can ripple into markets such as New Zealand’s.

Analyst consensus remains moderately bullish, with an average price target implying a 17% upside from current levels. The latest survey of 26 Wall Street analysts recommends an ‘overweight’ or moderately bullish stance on AAL, with a price target range of USD $8 to $20 and an average target of $13.37. For New Zealand analysts and diversified global portfolios, this consensus—anchored in verified financial recovery and the strength of international partnerships—underscores cautious optimism regarding the airline’s medium-term prospects, particularly as travel volumes stabilize and transpacific demand potentially recovers.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.