Should I Buy Rocket Lab Stock in 2025? NZ Investor Guide

What is Rocket Lab?

How much is the Rocket Lab stock?

The price of Rocket Lab stock is falling this week. As of 29 May 2025, Rocket Lab shares closed at $27.35 USD, with a 24-hour drop of 5.46% and a weekly decrease of 5.93%. The company’s current market capitalization stands at $13.35 billion USD, with an average three-month trading volume of 17.21 million shares. No P/E ratio or dividend yield is reported, as Rocket Lab is not yet profitable and does not pay dividends. The stock’s beta is 1.87, indicating above-average volatility—a key factor for New Zealand investors considering short-term price swings and long-term growth prospects.

Our full analysis of the Rocket Lab stock

Having thoroughly reviewed Rocket Lab’s latest financial results as well as its remarkable stock trajectory over the past three years, we approach this analysis with rigorous scrutiny. By integrating up-to-date financial indicators, market data, technical signals, and competitive intelligence through proprietary models, we examine whether Rocket Lab now sits at an inflection point. So, why might Rocket Lab stock once again become a strategic entry point into the aerospace and defense sector as we approach 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) has reasserted its relevance in the global space sector and public markets, particularly evident in its share price action and business evolution throughout 2024–2025. As of 29 May 2025, the stock closed at $27.35, registering a recent pullback (down 5.93% this week, and -37.92% over six months) but nevertheless standing at an impressive +531.64% on a one-year basis. This outsized performance is supported by robust trading volumes (17.21 million shares daily on average) and an expanded market capitalization of $13.35 billion.

Key recent events reinforce the long-term narrative:

• Acquisition of Geost (May 2025): Rocket Lab’s $275 million acquisition of Geost LLC brings an immediate advantage in the satellite payloads domain, bolstering its American national security and Department of Defense (DoD) contracting credentials.
• Sector Pivot: The company’s increasing involvement in defense and space infrastructure aligns with strong global demand for satellite launch and in-orbit capabilities.

The macroeconomic environment in 2025 remains favorable for both the aerospace and technology sectors. Satellite services, defense spending, and private-public partnerships are all expanding, while competitive tailwinds from new space infrastructure budgets in both the US and UK set a positive context for Rocket Lab's strategic growth.

Technical Analysis

Rocket Lab’s technical structure further highlights its potential for new gains:

• Momentum and Trend Indicators:
• The 14-day RSI sits at 61.82, indicating healthy, neutral momentum—neither overbought nor oversold—leaving ample room for upward price action.
• The current MACD at 1.35 continues to emit a bullish signal, underpinning medium-term upward potential.
• Moving Averages:
• The 50-day ($19.65) and 200-day ($17.03) moving averages both sit well below the current price, underscoring a persistent, long-term uptrend and prior strong accumulation phases.
• Key Levels:
• Support zones at $24.59, $24.00, and $22.97 should attract buyers on any near-term weakness.
• Immediate resistance bands emerge at $26.21, $27.24, and a higher resistance at $27.83.
• With a 52-week range of $4.17–$33.34, investors are witnessing one of the market’s standout technical turnarounds.

The technical landscape suggests Rocket Lab may be entering a renewed bullish phase, with current momentum and support levels allowing for constructive entries both for traders and long-term investors.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamentally, Rocket Lab’s economic growth profile, innovation, and market positioning appear exceptionally robust:

• Revenue Growth: First-quarter 2025 revenue of $122.6 million (+32% year-over-year) outpaced expectations. The company is guiding for Q2 2025 revenue of $130–$140 million, demonstrating continuity in growth.
• Profitability and Valuation: While not yet profitable (adjusted EBITDA -$30 million; net loss -$60.6 million in Q1 2025; EPS -$0.12 vs. an estimate of -$0.10), Rocket Lab is in an accelerated investment and expansion phase. The Price/Sales ratio, while elevated by rapid revenue growth, remains competitive for high-innovation aerospace names. The lack of a dividend signals a preference for internal reinvestment—sensible given sector tailwinds and the need to capture market share.
• Structural Strengths:
• Innovation Engine: The development of the Neutron rocket (first US Air Force launch in 2025) positions Rocket Lab to directly compete with industry juggernauts such as SpaceX.
• Market Share: With 71% of Q1 2025 revenue from the Space Systems segment, Rocket Lab demonstrates sustainable, diversified demand.
• Brand and Execution: Led by New Zealander Sir Peter Beck, Rocket Lab’s brand continues to command credibility from customers, investors, and governments alike.
• Projected Growth: 2024 revenues are expected to reach $436.21 million (+78.34% year-on-year), supported by a $1.07 billion contracted backlog, 56% of which is due to convert over the next twelve months.

While the company is not yet profitable, such a growth-centric approach—particularly with market share capture and vertical integration in the high-barrier aerospace sector—justifies renewed investor interest at this stage of the cycle.

Volume and Liquidity

Rocket Lab’s remarkable trading liquidity is a testament to growing market confidence:

• Volume: With a 3-month average daily volume of 17.21 million shares, Rocket Lab enjoys one of the highest turnover ratios among small to mid-cap aerospace stocks. This demand suggests not only institutional accumulation but also persistent interest from active traders.
• Float: A free float of 377.52 million shares ensures a dynamic valuation that allows for both tactical and strategic positioning by investors seeking exposure to a fast-evolving, high-momentum theme.

Robust liquidity not only increases price discovery efficiency but also provides a crucial cushion for investor entry and exit amid market volatility—an indispensable asset for a growth stock in this sector.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Rocket Lab’s forward path is illuminated by a series of powerful growth catalysts:

• Product Innovation: The imminent Neutron rocket launch (Q3/Q4 2025) for the US Air Force marks a transformative technological leap, likely to attract additional high-value defense and commercial contracts.
• Strategic Expansion: The Geost acquisition unlocks direct participation in the multi-billion-dollar payload market and further reinforces Rocket Lab’s relationships with U.S. government agencies.
• Contract Pipeline: With confirmed multi-year, multi-billion-dollar contracts in the US and UK defense sectors, Rocket Lab is uniquely positioned for recurring revenue streams and margin expansion as these deals materialize.
• Sustainability and ESG: The company’s focus on reusability and green launch practices addresses investor demand for ESG-aligned aerospace investments—a growing theme for large sovereign wealth and institutional allocators.
• Sector Momentum: The ongoing expansion of the space economy, combined with favorable regulatory conditions and global defense priorities, creates a supportive macro context.

These elements suggest Rocket Lab not only sits at the heart of sustained “New Space” sector flows but may also benefit from further upward re-rating as milestones are achieved.

Investment Strategies

Rocket Lab at current levels seems to offer attractive positioning across multiple investment horizons:

• Short-Term: The stock is consolidating just below a cluster of resistance levels ($26.21–$27.83). A breakout above $27.83 could catalyse a move toward the $30–$35.56 analyst consensus target, especially with the Neutron launch or Geost acquisition closing on the horizon.
• Medium-Term: Anticipated Q2 and Q3 results—underpinned by contract execution and integration of the new satellite payload business—could drive significant revaluation as guidance is updated. Entry on pullbacks to the support zone ($24–$25) can be seen as technically strategic.
• Long-Term: For investors with a 2–3 year view, Rocket Lab’s trajectory as a vertically integrated leader in the small satellite and defense launch markets creates compelling upside. The shift from cash burn to self-sustaining profitability, combined with robust top-line growth and expanding addressable markets, justifies meaningful allocation within a diversified high-growth technology portfolio.

In all timeframes, the risk/reward profile appears favourably skewed, particularly for those seeking early exposure to next-generation aerospace growth.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Rocket Lab?

In summary, Rocket Lab offers a rare combination of aggressive revenue growth, expanding addressable markets, strategic contract wins, and innovation leadership—backed by robust trading liquidity and consistent technical strength. While it is true that volatility remains elevated (beta 1.87) and profitability is a work in progress, the company’s strong execution, increased institutional confidence, and compelling pipeline suggest that Rocket Lab may be entering a pivotal new bullish phase.

For investors in New Zealand and beyond seeking participation in the transformational “New Space” economy and the defense technology paradigm, Rocket Lab stands out as a stock that merits close attention and renewed conviction. Current price levels, supportive sector dynamics, and a succession of upcoming growth catalysts all reinforce the view that Rocket Lab seems to represent an excellent opportunity for those seeking differentiated exposure to aerospace and space infrastructure innovation.

With its unique strengths and strong global outlook, Rocket Lab may well be poised to reward patient, forward-looking investors as it enters its next chapter of ambitious growth.

How to buy Rocket Lab stock in New Zealand?

Buying Rocket Lab stock online is simple and secure when using a regulated broker accessible from New Zealand. You can invest directly (spot buying), owning the actual shares, or trade using Contracts For Difference (CFDs), which allow you to benefit from price fluctuations without acquiring the shares themselves. Each approach has distinct advantages in terms of cost, leverage, and holding periods. Understanding these options helps you align your investment strategy with your goals. To help you choose the right broker for Rocket Lab shares, see the comparison further down this page.

Spot buying

When you buy Rocket Lab stock in “cash” via a regulated broker, you become a direct shareholder—entitling you to potential capital gains and any future dividends. This method is typically best for long-term investors. Most online NZ brokers charge a fixed commission per order, commonly around NZ$5-10 per trade, plus a small currency conversion fee since Rocket Lab trades on the NASDAQ in USD.

Example

Suppose the Rocket Lab share price is US$27.35 (about NZ$45), and you decide to invest NZ$1,000. After a NZ$5 brokerage fee, you can buy approximately 22 shares (NZ$1,000 – NZ$5 = NZ$995; NZ$995 ÷ NZ$45 ≈ 22 shares).

✔️ Gain scenario

If Rocket Lab stock rises by 10%, your investment would now be worth NZ$1,100.
Result: That’s a NZ$100 gross gain, or +10% on your initial outlay.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading on Rocket Lab shares allows you to speculate on price movements (up or down) without owning the underlying shares. CFDs offer leverage, meaning you can invest a fraction of the total position value, but they also carry higher risk. Fees typically include a spread (the difference between the buy/sell price) and overnight financing costs if you hold positions for more than a day.

Example

You open a CFD position on Rocket Lab shares with NZ$1,000 and apply 5x leverage. This gives you market exposure of NZ$5,000.

✔️ Gain scenario

If Rocket Lab’s share price rises by 8%, your position increases by 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: That’s a NZ$400 gain (excluding fees) from your original NZ$1,000 deposit.

Final advice

Before investing in Rocket Lab, it is essential to compare brokers’ fees and conditions—transaction costs, spreads, platform reliability, and currency conversion rates can all impact your results. The best approach depends on your objectives: direct share purchase generally suits longer-term investors, while CFD trading is geared towards those seeking flexibility and the ability to profit in both rising and falling markets. You’ll find a detailed broker comparison further down the page to help you make an informed choice.

Our 7 tips for buying Rocket Lab stock

The latest news about Rocket Lab

Rocket Lab announces acquisition of US-based Geost, strengthening its space payload capabilities and global footprint. On May 27, Rocket Lab revealed a definitive agreement to acquire Geost LLC, a major specialist in spaceborne optical systems, for $275 million in cash and stock. This move marks Rocket Lab’s strategic expansion into the satellite payload market, a sector critical for national security and commercial customers. With significant R&D and manufacturing in both the US and New Zealand, this acquisition is expected to enhance Rocket Lab’s competitive position and positively influence the regional space industry, especially given the company’s well-established Electron launch complex at Mahia Peninsula, New Zealand, and the strong involvement of Kiwi-founded CEO Peter Beck.

Q1 2025 results show robust 32% year-on-year revenue growth, outpacing expectations. Rocket Lab reported $122.6 million in revenue for Q1 2025, surpassing analyst forecasts and representing a notable acceleration driven by ongoing growth in its Space Systems segment, which now contributes 71% of group revenues. Although the company remains loss-making, the top-line outperformance demonstrates resilient demand for its small satellite launches and in-space systems. For New Zealand stakeholders, the results underscore the strength of local engineering and manufacturing teams, as well as the global relevance of technology developed at Rocket Lab’s Auckland and Mahia sites.

Rocket Lab guides for $130–$140 million in Q2 2025 revenue, reflecting continued demand and backlog conversion. Management presented a confident outlook for the next quarter, forecasting a sizable increase in revenues. The company’s total contracted backlog now stands at $1.07 billion, with more than half scheduled for conversion within 12 months. This growing pipeline of business includes major US, UK, and New Zealand payload launches, cementing the company’s importance in the international space economy and sustaining high-value engineering jobs in New Zealand. The guidance is widely interpreted as a constructive signal for the company’s growth trajectory and operational momentum.

Recent analyst consensus remains strongly positive, with the majority rating Rocket Lab a “Buy.” Across the last week, thirteen analysts have reaffirmed Bullish ratings, highlighting both the market’s confidence in Rocket Lab’s expansion strategy and its leading competitive position in the small launch and space systems sectors. Notably, this consensus considers the company’s technological advantages, the regional presence in New Zealand, strategic US defense contracts, and the prospects for Neutron—Rocket Lab’s medium-lift rocket under development in both the US and NZ. The optimism has particular resonance for New Zealand investors, reflecting a rare globally integrated, high-growth technology leader originating from the local market.

Technical indicators show neutral to bullish momentum amid recent share price volatility. Price performance over the last week has been volatile, with a decline of nearly 6% but remaining up over 530% year-on-year. The current Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 61.8 signals neutral conditions, while the MACD remains on a bullish trend. Trading remains well above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, emphasizing longer-term strength despite short-term swings. This technical backdrop, together with robust fundamentals and high institutional interest, positions Rocket Lab attractively for NZ market participants focusing on both strategic and trading perspectives.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.