Should I buy Alcoa stock in 2025? NZ Edition

What is Alcoa?

How much is the Alcoa stock?

The price of Alcoa stock is falling this week. Currently trading at $27.63 USD, Alcoa shares have dropped by 0.90% over the past 24 hours and are down 2.26% for the week.

A high stock beta of 2.29 signals significant volatility. With recent swings and a cyclical profile, investors in New Zealand should be aware that price movements for Alcoa can be both rapid and substantial.

Our complete analysis of the Alcoa stock

Having rigorously reviewed Alcoa’s latest financial results in conjunction with its three-year share price performance, our analysis leverages an integrated mix of financial metrics, advanced technical scanning, peer benchmarking, and proprietary algorithms. This comprehensive process highlights emerging strengths, evolving sector dynamics, and potential turning points for the stock. So, why might Alcoa once again become a strategic entry point into the global materials sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA) is a global leader in aluminium production and a vital player in the materials supply chain. As of 30 May 2025, the stock trades at $27.63, with a market capitalization of $7.2 billion. Over the past year, shares have retreated by 37%, paralleling the broader correction in commodities and cyclical equities. The price action underscores the cyclical nature of the sector, yet beneath this drawdown lie several positive and potentially transformative developments.

The past six months have seen Alcoa finalise the acquisition of Alumina Limited, substantially strengthening its upstream presence and operational integration. This deal positions the company as a dominant integrated producer, better equipped to weather commodity swings and capture margin expansion opportunities. Additionally, Alcoa's consistent commitment to dividends—demonstrated by a $0.10/share payout for Q4 2024—reinforces management's confidence in the underlying cash flow.

On the macroeconomic front, the global transition towards decarbonisation and electrification, including the expansion of EV manufacturing and renewable energy infrastructure, continues to fuel aluminium demand growth. For New Zealand- and Asia Pacific-based investors, Alcoa’s international asset base (notably its strategic presence in Australia) adds further relevance: regional demand, proximity to emerging markets, and leverage to global supply chains all position the company at the heart of ongoing industrial shifts.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, Alcoa is at a potentially pivotal juncture. Key indicators as of 30 May 2025 present a classic case of bottoming potential in a cyclical stock:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14-day): 52.41 (neutral)
• MACD (12,26): 0.45 (mild sell signal)
• Moving Averages:
• 20-day: $27.57 (buy signal)
• 50-day: $27.59 (buy signal)
• 100-day: $31.38 (sell signal)
• 200-day: $34.77 (sell signal)

A confirmed death cross (50-day moving average below the 200-day), typically bearish, must be weighed alongside signs of stabilisation. Prices are consolidating around the short-term moving averages, with a well-established support level at $22.49—a zone repeatedly defended in recent trading. The 52-week range ($21.53 - $47.77) further supports the argument that downside may be increasingly limited at current levels.

Momentum structures are shifting: rather than further capitulation, we observe technical base-building, potential bullish divergence with sentiment, and volume stabilisation. This confluence of signals lends weight to the thesis that the stock could be setting up for a medium-term reversal, particularly as operational and macro catalysts materialise.

Fundamental Analysis

The fundamental case for Alcoa is compelling. Q1 2025 results demonstrated strong operational leverage:

• Quarterly revenue: $3.37 billion
• Net income: $548 million
• EPS: $2.15 (36% ahead of consensus expectations)

For FY2024, revenues climbed 13% to $11.9 billion, showing resilient topline growth even amid volatile commodity prices. The 2024 net income of $60 million masks the powerful quarterly rebound just delivered, suggesting the business is transitioning out of a cyclical trough.

Valuation is notable for its attractiveness: Alcoa's price/earnings ratio stands at just 7.45, reflecting substantial earnings power relative to depressed share prices. The current dividend yield of 1.43% and the capacity for buybacks or further dividend increases signal robust cash generation. Compared to major competitors, Alcoa trades at a substantial discount both against historical multiples and sector comparables.

Strategically, the completed Alumina Limited acquisition cements vertical integration—enabling greater margin capture from bauxite mining through to aluminium smelting. Alcoa has also continued to innovate, taking a leadership position in low-carbon aluminium production, which is expected to be a pivotal differentiator as global customers and governments tighten environmental requirements.

Volume and Liquidity

Market liquidity remains robust, with average daily trading volumes of over 6.4 million shares, supporting efficient entry and exit for all investor profiles. The float remains conducive to dynamic repricing: with significant institutional holders but a broad public ownership base, the structure is favourable for active trading as well as longer-term value appreciation.

Sustained trading volume at current price levels can be interpreted as increasing market confidence in a pending cyclical rebound, and as technical bases form, the liquidity profile suggests any upward movement could be both rapid and substantial.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several catalysts underpin the bullish case for Alcoa:

• Demand growth for aluminium: Ongoing electrification (particularly in EVs), global infrastructure investment, and renewable energy buildouts are structurally pushing aluminium consumption higher.
• Integration of Alumina Limited: With the acquisition completed, Alcoa is poised to unlock operational synergies, cost optimisation, and enhanced supply chain security.
• Operational margin improvement: Process modernisation and scale economies, particularly in low-carbon product lines, are likely to widen margins as markets recover.
• ESG credentials: Alcoa’s ongoing innovation in green aluminium is strongly aligned with institutional investor requirements, ensuring continued access to capital and future market demand.

Regulatory tailwinds—especially those aimed at reducing carbon emissions in key markets—amplify aluminium's appeal versus higher-emission substitutes. Any rebound in global industrial activity or abatement of macro headwinds could serve as a springboard for marked share price recovery.

Investment Strategies

Alcoa shares present notable opportunities across short, medium, and long-term horizons:

• Short-term: With the stock consolidating near technical lows ($22.49 support), nimble investors may find an attractive risk/reward setup. The technical base and positive signals on short-term moving averages provide a tactical entry point, especially if combined with a catalyst such as a positive earnings surprise or sector rotation.
• Medium-term: Integration progress with Alumina Limited and the potential re-rating of sector peers could drive a steady upward revaluation as confidence returns. Intermediate investors may capitalise on a climb toward consensus price targets ($36.62) as earnings visibility and market sentiment improve.
• Long-term: For those seeking exposure to the broader industrial cycle and thematic growth (electrification, ESG, infrastructure), Alcoa’s dominant market share and diversified, global asset base offer a compelling case. The company is likely to be a key beneficiary of rising aluminium penetration across multiple sectors, with the valuation gap adding significant room for re-rating as macro headwinds dissipate.

For New Zealand-based investors, Alcoa’s Australian assets and Asia-Pacific exposure offer geographic as well as sector diversification. Allocations at or just above current technical supports enable favourable positioning ahead of likely cyclical upswings.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Alcoa?

Synthesising our analysis, Alcoa stands out with:

• Attractive valuation (PER 7.45) at a technical and historical discount
• Robust operational execution, evidenced by Q1 2025’s significant earnings beat
• Enhanced scale and integration following the Alumina Limited acquisition
• Strong, sustained trading volume underpinning price stability
• Multiple structural growth levers, from electrification to decarbonisation and industrial renewal

With technical patterns suggesting potential exhaustion of downside momentum and fundamentally driven catalysts beginning to take effect, Alcoa appears to represent an excellent opportunity for investors seeking value, cyclical upside, and exposure to long-term global trends.

In sum, the fundamentals, market positioning, and technical developments all indicate a stock that may be entering a new bullish phase—one that merits serious consideration and in-depth portfolio review by discerning New Zealand investors looking to capture the next leg of the global materials recovery. Alcoa’s blend of operational strength and sector tailwinds make it a name to watch closely as the market cycle turns.

How to buy Alcoa stock in NZ?

Buying Alcoa shares online is both simple and secure, especially with a regulated broker. As a New Zealand investor, you have a choice between two main approaches: spot (cash) buying, where you become a shareholder, and trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which lets you speculate on price moves without owning the underlying shares. Each method has its own features, costs, and benefits, so it’s essential to consider which aligns better with your objectives. For an informed decision, see our detailed broker comparison further down the page.

Cash Buying

A cash purchase means buying Alcoa shares outright through an online broker. You’ll be the registered owner and may be eligible for dividends if declared. Most NZ-friendly brokers charge a fixed commission for overseas shares, often around NZD $5–$10 per trade. For example, if Alcoa trades at USD $27.63 per share (about NZD $45 at current exchange rates), investing NZD $1,000 (after a $5 commission) lets you buy approximately 22 shares.

Informations importantes

✔️ Gain scenario:
If the Alcoa share price rises by 10%, your holdings would be worth NZD $1,100.
Result: That’s a NZD $100 gross gain, or +10% on your investment (commissions excluded from the gain).

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) allow you to trade on Alcoa’s share price movements without actually owning the shares. Instead of a flat commission, brokers typically charge a ‘spread’ (the difference between buying and selling prices), plus a daily ‘overnight’ financing fee if positions are held beyond market close. CFDs offer leverage, magnifying both gains and losses. For instance, using NZD $1,000 with 5x leverage gives you NZD $5,000 market exposure to Alcoa.

Informations importantes

✔️ Gain scenario:
If the share price climbs 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: That’s a NZD $400 gain on a NZD $1,000 outlay (excluding spreads and financing costs).

Final Advice

Before investing, it’s crucial to compare the fees, features and support offered by different brokers, as these can impact your returns. Whether you opt for direct share ownership or CFD trading depends on your investment goals and risk tolerance. Be sure to consult our broker comparison lower on this page to find the platform best suited to your needs.

Our 7 tips for buying Alcoa stock

The latest news about Alcoa

Alcoa’s Q1 2025 net profit substantially exceeded analyst consensus with a 36% earnings beat. In the first quarter of 2025, Alcoa reported a net profit of $548 million and earnings per share of $2.15, markedly surpassing the anticipated $1.68 per share. This strong outperformance signals robust operational execution and successful cost management. With a quarterly revenue of $3.37 billion, this result has been viewed positively by the market, highlighting Alcoa’s resilience despite sector headwinds. The solid quarterly earnings are relevant for New Zealand investors and analysts who value stability and upside in commodity-linked stocks, especially given ongoing volatility in global metals markets.

Alcoa completed its acquisition of Alumina Limited, consolidating its supply chain strength in Australasia. Finalized on August 1, 2024, the acquisition of Australia-based Alumina Limited for $2.2 billion strategically deepens Alcoa’s integration in the bauxite and alumina value chain. This is highly pertinent for New Zealand, given the country's geographic proximity to Australia and interconnected commodities trade dynamics in the region. The move is expected to improve operational efficiencies, secure raw material supply, and potentially enhance Alcoa’s export capacity, providing positive tailwinds for business in Asia Pacific markets where New Zealand is an active trading partner.

Alcoa maintains a positive dividend policy, announcing a quarterly payout of $0.10 per share for Q4 2024. The declaration of a consistent quarterly dividend signals ongoing confidence in Alcoa’s cash flow generation and capital discipline. This is particularly attractive for New Zealand-based institutional and retail investors seeking dividend yields among international equities. The ability to maintain and distribute dividends even in a challenging price environment underscores financial stability and may help to moderate share price volatility in local investor portfolios.

Alcoa leads in low-carbon aluminium innovation, reinforcing its ESG focus and appeal to sustainability-oriented NZ investors. The company’s ongoing innovations in low-emission aluminium production align with New Zealand's robust demand for sustainable materials, particularly in the infrastructure and renewables sectors. Alcoa’s strategic positioning as an industry leader in ESG and low-carbon output could support long-term demand from Kiwi companies integrating sustainability requirements across their supply chains, further bolstering the company’s regional relevance and growth prospects.

Despite a recent “death cross” technical signal, momentum indicators for Alcoa have turned neutral with short-term moving averages suggesting a potential rebound. Alcoa’s current technical indicators, including a neutral 14-day RSI of 52.41 and short-term moving averages (20-day and 50-day) pointing to buying signals, contrast with the longer-term bearish “death cross” formation. For New Zealand investors, this highlights a possible inflection point: short-term optimism coupled with attractive valuation metrics (P/E ratio of 7.45, analyst consensus price target of $36.62) may appeal to those seeking exposure to a cyclical rebound, especially as the broader Asia-Pacific commodity complex regains momentum.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.