Should I buy Sundial Growers stock in 2025? Expert Analysis for NZ

What is Sundial Growers?

How much is the Sundial Growers stock?

The price of Sundial Growers stock is stable this week. As of now, SNDL is trading at USD 1.30, unchanged over the past 24 hours, and showing a slight decrease of 0.76% across the last week. The company’s current market capitalisation stands at 334.48 million USD, with an average trading volume of around 1.6 million shares over the past three months. Sundial posts no price/earnings ratio, reflecting ongoing losses, and does not offer a dividend yield. The stock carries a high beta of 3.67, marking significant volatility—a critical point for investors in New Zealand considering exposure to fast-moving global sectors.

Our complete analysis of the Sundial Growers stock

Following a comprehensive review of Sundial Growers’ latest financial results, historical stock performance, and an integration of market intelligence—ranging from technical signals and financial ratios to macroeconomic trends and peer benchmarking—our proprietary algorithms have synthesized an advanced perspective on this unique asset. Sundial Growers (NASDAQ: SNDL), now one of the largest vertically integrated cannabis and spirits retailers in Canada, trades at 1.30 USD as of 30 May 2025—a level that, according to consensus analyst targets, implies massive upside potential. So, why might Sundial Growers once again become a strategic entry point into the fast-evolving North American cannabis and beverage sector as we approach 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Sundial Growers’ stock price trajectory over the past year has been marked by notable volatility, typical of leaders in emerging industries. The share price remains stable on the day at 1.30 USD, with a modest decline of 0.76% over the past week, but a more meaningful retracement of -32.64% in the past six months and -40.09% year-on-year. While these numbers might appear discouraging at first glance, they create an intriguing setup for investors looking for entry points with asymmetric upside.

Recent positive events merit close attention. Noteworthy, Sundial was listed on the Canadian Securities Exchange (CSE) in April 2025—enhancing its visibility and liquidity in the home market. Strategic initiatives such as the Q1 2025 repurchase of 5.76 million shares for cancellation, and the acquisition of 4.35 million shares (5.4% stake) of High Tide Inc., illuminate Sundial’s commitment to creating shareholder value and deepening its retail ecosystem. Such measures signal a confident management outlook and an effective capital allocation strategy.

On a macro and sectoral level, Sundial is exceptionally well-placed. The Canadian cannabis and beverage retail market is experiencing favourable regulatory momentum. With policymakers in both the US and Canada reassessing cannabis policy frameworks, and global consumer trends moving decisively toward legal recreational cannabis, the broader sector backdrop is becoming increasingly supportive. For NZ-based investors, this provides rare exposure to the North American cannabis growth story via a well-capitalised, liquid name.

Technical Analysis

While Sundial Growers is still emerging from a technical downtrend, several indicators suggest that a pivot point may be approaching, potentially ushering in a period of sustained recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 42.90 (neutral territory), avoiding oversold conditions and hinting at a possible base formation. The MACD indicator remains marginally negative (-0.03), but its proximity to a bullish crossover is worth monitoring closely.

Key moving averages—20, 50, 100, and 200 days—all currently signal a bearish trend, with share price just below these levels. However, strong technical support is present at 1.24 USD (the 52-week low), positioning risk-tolerant investors to accumulate near historic lows with limited further downside.

Immediate technical resistance lies near 1.38–1.40 USD, while the 2.40 USD level—Sundial’s 52-week high—represents a major potential breakout zone. Should sentiment or news catalysts turn, clearing the nearer resistance could unleash significant upward momentum, given the compressed price structure and high historical beta (3.67). The sideways movement and low recent volatility provide fertile ground for a potential bullish reversal in the short-to-medium term.

Fundamental Analysis

Beneath recent price underperformance, Sundial is rapidly transforming at the operational level. Revenues for Q1 2025 rose by 3.6% year-over-year, reaching 204.9 million CAD—a clear sign of resilience and growth even in a competitive landscape. Margin-wise, Sundial posted a record gross margin of 27.6%, beating analyst expectations and demonstrating effective execution. While the company reported a net loss (-14.7 million CAD; EPS -0.30 CAD), the progress towards profitability is noteworthy given sector conditions.

Crucially, the company’s balance sheet is a standout in sector context: 220.9 million CAD in unrestricted cash, no debt, and an ambitious target of achieving 100 million CAD in positive free cash flow within three years. This formidable financial strength augments management’s capacity for strategic acquisitions and organic expansion, setting Sundial apart from heavily leveraged competitors.

Sundial’s scale is also a decisive asset—it is now the largest private retailer of cannabis and spirits in Canada with 351 stores. The acquisition of Indiva positions it as a leader in edible cannabis products, a segment showing strong consumer growth. These structural strengths, combined with the company’s strong brand presence and distribution reach, lay the groundwork for sustained market share gains.

Valuation remains an appealing component for potential investors. At just 1.30 USD per share and a market capitalisation of roughly 334 million USD, the stock’s multiple appears compressed relative to its long-term growth prospects and balance sheet. While price/earnings ratios are not yet meaningful (Sundial remains loss-making), the consensus price target of 3.50 USD (+169% upside) reflects both latent value and analyst conviction.

Volume and Liquidity

Sundial Growers consistently trades around 1.6 million shares daily—an important signal of sustained market attention and investor confidence, especially vital in the small/mid-cap segment. Liquidity is further buttressed by its dual listing (NASDAQ and CSE) and a share float of approximately 257 million following recent buybacks.

This robust liquidity underpins dynamic valuation scenarios, enabling institutional and retail investors alike to enter and exit positions efficiently. The company’s own sizable buyback in Q1 2025 further fortifies the float and supports valuation metrics for medium- and long-term holders.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several forward-looking catalysts may well ignite a new phase of appreciation for Sundial shares:

• Loyalty & Customer Engagement: The ongoing expansion of Sundial’s Rise Rewards program is set to strengthen customer retention and sales, deepening its moat in Canadian retail.
• Strategic Acquisitions: Pending acquisition of 32 cannabis stores from 1CM Inc. for 32.2 million CAD would further enhance store footprint, bolstering both top-line and bottom-line potential.
• Operational Realignment in the US: Sundial is strategically reviewing and restructuring investments in key US cannabis enterprises (Parallel, Skymint), preparing for significant regulatory liberalisation that could unfold over the next 12–24 months.
• Product Innovation: Following the Indiva acquisition, Sundial is accelerating into high-growth value-added product segments, like edibles—an area with outsized upside in mature markets.
• ESG Initiatives: Sundial’s continued focus on operational integrity and responsible retailing aligns well with evolving investor and consumer ESG expectations, providing additional narrative tailwinds.

Equally important is the sector’s broader momentum. In both Canada and the US, regulatory changes—including possible national legislation and state-level reforms—may act as substantial value-unlocking events. Any progressive shift in North American cannabis or alcohol policy will disproportionately favour well-capitalised, integrated players such as Sundial Growers.

Investment Strategies

The current price structure, marked by consolidation just above the 52-week low, suggests compelling technical and strategic entry points for various investment horizons:

• Short-term: Traders may view accumulation near 1.24 USD as a calculated risk/reward pivot, with clear support at recent lows and potential for sharp rallies around positive news or sector momentum.
• Medium-term: Investors could structure positions ahead of major catalysts—such as the completion of new retail acquisitions or updates regarding US strategic investments—aiming for a retest of the 1.38–1.40 USD resistance and beyond.
• Long-term: For capital allocators with a multi-year mandate, Sundial’s balance sheet strength, sector leadership, and ambitious free cash flow targets underpin the thesis for significant value realisation as the sector matures. The analyst price target of 3.50 USD (+169% upside) provides a robust framework for patience and conviction.

Combining technical support at cycle lows, upcoming corporate catalysts, and a vast addressable market, the stock seems to offer an excellent entry for diversified portfolios looking to capture growth in next-generation consumer sectors.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Sundial Growers?

In sum, Sundial Growers stands out as a rare blend of strategic market positioning, strong capital stewardship, and dynamic sector exposure, currently trading near historic technical and valuation lows. The company’s robust financial resources, expanding retail operations, and innovative product leadership support the confidence that it is entering a new, potentially bullish phase.

Short-term volatility is to be expected—indeed, the company’s beta of 3.67 underscores its sensitivity to broader market swings. Yet, the combination of operational resilience, active capital return (buybacks), and sector-defining catalysts substantially strengthens the case for renewed investor interest.

For NZ-based investors seeking international growth, diversification, and exposure to an evolving consumer retail megatrend, Sundial Growers seems to represent an excellent opportunity at current levels. The medium-term outlook is optimistic, driven by structural tailwinds, robust liquidity, and a compelling analyst consensus target. As the regulatory and consumption landscape in North America continues to evolve, Sundial Growers offers a unique vantage to participate in this transformative sector.

The coming months may well mark the inflection point where Sundial’s operational progress and evolving industry framework converge—potentially unlocking significant value for discerning, well-positioned investors who recognise this rare blend of growth, resilience, and opportunity.

How to buy Sundial Growers stock in New Zealand?

Buying Sundial Growers (SNDL Inc.) stock online from New Zealand is both straightforward and secure when you use a regulated broker. Investors can choose between two main methods: traditional spot buying, where you own real shares outright, or trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allow you to speculate on price movements without actually owning the shares. Each approach has unique benefits and risks to suit different investment goals. For a comprehensive comparison of fees, features, and platforms, see our broker comparison table further down the page.

Spot buying

With spot buying, you purchase real Sundial Growers shares listed on NASDAQ under the SNDL ticker. This means you own the shares in your account and may benefit from shareholder rights. For New Zealand investors, most brokers charge a fixed commission per transaction, typically between NZD $5 and $15, plus potential FX fees if trading US stocks.

Informations importantes

For example:
If Sundial Growers shares are priced at USD $1.30 (approx. NZD $2.12 per share at recent rates), you can buy about 470 shares with a NZD $1,000 investment, factoring in a $5 brokerage fee.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If the share price goes up by 10% to around NZD $2.33, your holding is now worth about NZD $1,100.
Result: That’s a NZD $100 gross gain, or +10% on your initial investment (excluding currency fluctuations and tax).

Trading via CFD

CFD trading allows you to speculate on Sundial Growers share price movements without owning the underlying asset. Instead, you enter a contract with the broker to exchange the difference in price from opening to closing the position. With CFDs, fees typically include a spread (the broker’s markup on the price) and overnight financing costs if you hold positions open for more than a day.

Informations importantes

For example:
With a NZD $1,000 deposit and 5x leverage, you gain NZD $5,000 in market exposure to SNDL.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If the Sundial Growers share price rises by 8%, your CFD position yields 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: That’s a NZD $400 gain (on your initial $1,000), excluding spread, financing fees, and tax.

Final advice

Before investing, it’s essential to compare broker fees, currency conversion costs, available platforms, and trading conditions. Your choice between spot buying and CFDs should align with your investment strategy, risk tolerance, and financial goals. Take your time to review our detailed broker comparison below to find the option that best matches your needs as a New Zealand investor.

Our 7 tips for buying Sundial Growers stock

The latest news about Sundial Growers

SNDL’s analyst consensus price target stands at USD 3.50, indicating a +169% upside potential from current levels. This target, reaffirmed over the past week by major financial data platforms, reflects strong institutional expectations of operational improvements and successful strategic initiatives. For New Zealand-based investors seeking listed cannabis sector exposure, the pronounced upside and SNDL’s visibility on NASDAQ and, since April 2025, the Canadian Securities Exchange, make it relevant and accessible via global brokerage accounts widely available in NZ. While the share price has struggled over the last 12 months, the optimistic analyst outlook signals confidence in medium-term growth catalysts.

SNDL reported a record gross margin of 27.6% in Q1 2025, significantly exceeding market expectations. The company’s top-line revenue for the quarter grew 3.6% year on year to CAD 204.9 million, with operational improvements driving a solid margin result—especially notable in the context of a competitive, highly regulated cannabis and beverage landscape. This margin expansion is viewed positively by sector analysts and underscores SNDL’s progress toward sustainable profitability. Sustained improvement in operational effectiveness is a key parameter monitored by international investors, including those in the NZ market, who are increasingly focused on margin stability amid global cannabis sector volatility.

SNDL’s recent share buyback of 5.76 million shares highlights balance sheet strength and capital discipline. Over Q1 2025, management executed a significant buyback for cancellation, reducing outstanding share count to approximately 257 million. This move bolsters per-share value and signals leadership’s confidence in the company’s prospects, and is particularly constructive for international shareholders aiming for exposure to companies with shareholder-friendly policies. NZ investors, often attentive to capital allocation discipline, may view this positively in the current global climate of corporate governance scrutiny.

SNDL maintains a debt-free balance sheet with more than CAD 220 million in unrestricted cash reserves. The absence of financial leverage and ample liquidity position the company to navigate sector volatility and pursue expansion opportunities, such as its proposed acquisition of 32 retail cannabis stores from 1CM Inc. This robust financial position is of heightened importance for offshore investors from New Zealand, who frequently prioritize risk mitigation and corporate resilience given the global regulatory uncertainties facing the cannabis sector.

SNDL’s cross-listing and international reach ensure accessibility and regulatory clarity for New Zealand investors. The recent CSE listing and ongoing NASDAQ presence provide broad access for international capital flows, eliminating barriers for NZ-based institutions and retail investors. Moreover, SNDL’s Canadian regulatory domicile assures adherence to OECD-comparable standards, and the company’s activities in edibles and retail align with growing market trends in countries—like NZ—that monitor global cannabis market developments closely for future domestic policy evolution.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.