Should I buy Meridian Energy stock in 2025? Expert Review for NZ Investors

What is Meridian Energy?

How much is the Meridian Energy stock?

The price of Meridian Energy stock is falling this week. As of now, the share trades at NZ$5.49, with a 1.61% drop over the past 24 hours and a 3.68% decline across the week. Meridian Energy’s market capitalisation stands at NZ$14.59 billion, with an average three-month trading volume of 1.37 million shares. The stock shows a P/E ratio of 124.00, a dividend yield of 3.76%, and a beta of 0.65, signalling lower volatility compared to the broader NZ market. While recent softness reflects mixed sentiment, Meridian’s steady dividends and leadership in renewables can offer stability for long-term investors.

Our full analysis on the Meridian Energy stock

We have thoroughly examined Meridian Energy’s latest financial disclosures and aggregated its three-year share performance, integrating macro data, peer benchmarks, technical signals, and proprietary analytics. The convergence of robust structural positioning, emerging green energy catalysts, and technical developments signals a compelling opportunity for investors with an eye on the future of utility transformation. So, why might Meridian Energy (NZX: MEL) once again become a strategic entry point into New Zealand’s dynamic renewable energy sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Over the past 12 months, Meridian Energy’s share price has retreated by 10.29%, with a six-month slide of 11.59%, recently closing at NZ$5.49. While this trend may initially appear bearish, context is key: the downside is primarily linked to short-term factors, including a one-off earnings miss and heightened macroeconomic caution. Despite subdued price action, several constructive events have occurred:

• Ambitious project approvals: In 2024–2025, Meridian secured regulatory and board backing for high-capacity solar facilities—including the Ruakākā (120MW) and Te Rahui (400MW, NZ’s largest solar partnership)—demonstrating an acceleration in its diversification and growth agenda.
• Favourable green regulatory environment: New Zealand’s net-zero commitments, government support, and persistent public/private investment in renewables create a tailwind for major producers.
• Improved hydrological conditions: National hydro stock levels recently improved from 77% to 88% of the long-term average, aiding generation stability in coming quarters.

Within this context, Meridian appears to be consolidating after digesting a challenging financial period, even as sector optimism builds.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, Meridian Energy currently sits in a compelling area for bullish positioning:

• Key support zone at NZ$5.30: The 52-week low has held repeatedly, forming robust technical support.
• Short-term oversold environment: With prices trading below both the 50-day (NZ$5.67) and 200-day (NZ$5.86) moving averages, short-term pressure has pushed the stock to levels favoured by mean reversion strategies.
• Momentum signals: Classic oscillators such as the RSI and MACD (notably trending toward reversal zones as of late May 2025) suggest waning selling pressure and possible bullish inflection.
• Intermediate resistance at NZ$5.86: The proximity to major moving averages indicates that a breakout above the 200-day MA could signal the start of a new medium-term uptrend.

Overall, those seeking technical entries may find the current consolidation above multi-year support especially attractive ahead of anticipated catalysts.

Fundamental Analysis

Despite recent earnings volatility—the company reported a NZ$121 million loss for H2 2024 after a record profit the previous year—several core fundamental attributes underpin Meridian’s long-term value proposition:

• Revenue Growth: TTM revenues rose by 6.8% YoY to NZ$5.0B, outpacing many direct competitors and reflecting the strength of core hydro and wind operations.
• Margin recovery potential: Though profit margins are currently compressed (TTM net margin 2.34%, operational margin -4.92%), this is mainly cyclical and magnified by temporary factors (unfavourable weather, input costs). Strategic investments in solar are expected to boost blended EBITDA while reducing weather dependency.
• Dominant market position: As New Zealand’s largest generator/retailer, Meridian enjoys unrivalled operational scale, 1.29B publicly floated shares, and government alignment (51% state holding).
• Valuation dynamics: With a P/E of 124 (TTM), the stock is priced for regrowth, but its price/book (1.86) and price/sales (2.92) ratios remain reasonable for a sector leader investing in capex-heavy, high-ROIC green projects.
• Brand and innovation: Proprietary platforms (Meridian, Powershop), a reputation for 100% renewables, active software/service development, and multi-market presence (NZ, Australia, UK) reinforce sustainable growth drivers.

The combination of solid revenue expansion, strategic capex, and a leadership position at the heart of New Zealand’s energy transition justifies renewed interest, particularly given current valuations.

Volume and Liquidity

Liquidity and volume trends corroborate growing market confidence:

• Consistent volumes: With an average three-month daily trade of 1.37M shares, Meridian enjoys high secondary liquidity—enabling both institutional and private investors to establish or adjust positions efficiently.
• Robust free float: 1.29B shares, with a diversified register (51% government, 36% retail, 10.2% institutions), offers dynamic valuation potential without risk of illiquid price distortion.
• Low beta profile (0.65): Enhances appeal as a portfolio stabiliser or defensive anchor, especially given ongoing macro and sector volatility.

This sustained liquidity ensures flexibility for both active traders and buy-and-hold investors to consider Meridian as a core or tactical holding.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several imminent and longer-term developments may act as powerful accelerants for Meridian’s share price:

• Large-scale solar launches: Construction of Ruakākā and Te Rahui solar farms will meaningfully expand renewable output and revenue mix, with project milestones likely to trigger renewed investor enthusiasm throughout 2025 and beyond.
• Wind energy expansion (Te Rere Hau): A decision on this high-profile wind farm project is due imminently and could spark sector-wide re-ratings if confirmed.
• CEO transition: Incoming CEO Mike Roan’s leadership, commencing July 2025, brings fresh perspective and may catalyse strategic refresh and investor engagement.
• Improving operational environment: Elevated hydro storage and positive weather trends reduce production risks for 2H FY2025, aiding margin restoration.
• Macro tailwinds: New Zealand’s energy policies, increasing ESG flows, and global appetite for decarbonisation infrastructure support sector-wide premium valuations.

Altogether, these catalysts construct a highly favourable outlook for Meridian, positioning it to benefit from structural, regulatory, and technological trends reshaping the Australasian utility industry.

Investment Strategies

Meridian Energy currently lends itself to distinct entry strategies across time horizons:

Short-term

• Buy-the-dip/oversold plays: Entry near the NZ$5.30–5.49 zone, coinciding with 52-week technical support and improved hydrological data, suggests a calculated speculative rebound as the market digests cyclically weak results.
• Technical breakout monitoring: Should the price surpass NZ$5.86 (200-day MA), short-term momentum traders may seek to ride a thrust toward the NZ$6.30–NZ$6.80 consensus target band.

Medium-term

• Event-driven accumulation: The start of major solar farm construction or confirmation of key wind farm investments may serve as optimal moments to accumulate positions ahead of expected operational and financial returns.

Long-term

• Core ESG portfolio holding: For those adopting a sustainable strategy, Meridian provides stable, yield-oriented exposure to 100% renewables with robust dividend yield (3.76%), government backing, and sector leadership.
• Dividend strategies: With annual dividends (NZ$0.21, yield 3.76%) and eligibility for KiwiSaver, compounding returns through reinvestment strategies may prove especially attractive.

In each scenario, current price levels and forward catalysts collectively favour strategic accumulation, especially for those seeking green infrastructure exposure in an under-owned, regionally dominant asset.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Meridian Energy?

Summing up, Meridian Energy presents a rare blend of sector leadership, expanding renewables portfolio, and strategic clarity just as the next phase of New Zealand’s green transformation accelerates. The convergence of technical support, improving hydrological outlook, and high-visibility project launches form a sturdy base for renewed upside in 2025. With constructive volume trends, attractive dividend yield, and a material gap to consensus fair value (+14.8%), Meridian Energy seems to represent an excellent opportunity for investors seeking resilient, forward-looking exposure to the Australasian utility transition. For those with a focus on sustainability and long-term growth, Meridian Energy may well be entering a new bullish phase—affirming its pivotal place in any watchlist or portfolio built for the trends shaping tomorrow.

In a shifting landscape where quality, innovation, and renewable leadership matter more than ever, Meridian Energy stands out as a cornerstone opportunity poised for revitalisation as New Zealand’s climate ambitions become reality.

How to buy Meridian Energy stock in New Zealand?

Buying Meridian Energy shares online is now straightforward and secure, thanks to regulated brokers operating in New Zealand. Investors have two main options: purchasing the shares outright (“spot buying”), where you hold the actual stock, or trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allow you to speculate on price movements without owning the shares. Both approaches are available via popular NZ-regulated platforms, ensuring safety for your capital. Understanding the differences between these methods will help you make an informed decision—find a detailed broker comparison further down this page.

Cash buying

A cash (or spot) purchase means you buy actual Meridian Energy shares on the NZX (ticker: MEL), becoming a registered shareholder eligible for dividends and voting rights. Local brokers typically charge a fixed commission per order—usually between NZ$5 and NZ$15 per trade.

Informations importantes

Concrete example: Suppose the Meridian Energy share price is NZ$5.49. With a NZ$1,000 stake, you can purchase around 181 shares (NZ$1,000 – NZ$5 commission = NZ$995 ÷ NZ$5.49 ≈ 181 shares).

Informations importantes

Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth NZ$1,100.
Result: +NZ$100 gross gain, representing a +10% return on your original investment.

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) are financial instruments that let you trade Meridian Energy shares without acquiring the physical stock. Instead, you speculate on the price movement, using leverage to amplify both gains and losses. Common fees for CFDs include the spread (difference between bid and ask price) and overnight financing if you hold positions for more than a day.

Informations importantes

Example: Let’s say you open a CFD position on Meridian Energy shares with NZ$1,000 of your own capital and apply 5x leverage. Your market exposure is NZ$5,000.

Informations importantes

Gain scenario: If Meridian Energy’s price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: +NZ$400 gain, on a NZ$1,000 outlay (not including fees or overnight costs).

Final advice

Before you invest, it’s essential to compare brokers’ fees, trading conditions, and available features, as costs and functionalities can differ widely across NZ platforms. Your best choice depends on whether you want to own Meridian Energy shares long term, or prefer shorter-term, leveraged trading with CFDs. A comprehensive broker comparison tool is available further down the page, to help you find the right partner for your investment goals.

Our 7 tips for buying Meridian Energy stock

The latest news about Meridian Energy

Meridian Energy has received approval for the 120MW Ruakākā Solar Farm, construction scheduled for August 2025. This NZ$227 million project underscores Meridian's active leadership in New Zealand’s renewable energy sector, supporting the government’s sustainability targets and reinforcing the company’s long-term growth via domestic infrastructure expansion. The imminent Ruakākā development is expected to boost generation capacity, diversify the energy mix, and could serve as a catalyst for investor confidence as the nation intensifies its focus on decarbonisation.

The partnership with Nova Energy for the 400MW Te Rahui Solar Farm marks New Zealand’s largest solar project to date. Announced this week, the collaboration positions Meridian at the core of the country’s solar transition—this landmark project, poised to set a national benchmark in scale, will address rising power demands and further strengthen Meridian’s market dominance. Such developments directly align with national renewable policy and are set to deliver long-term benefits for shareholders as energy transition accelerates.

Hydroelectric storage conditions have improved significantly, moving from 77% to 88% of the historical average. This rapid improvement supports stronger operational performance for Meridian’s hydro assets, which are core to its 100% renewable portfolio. Improved water reserves reduce short-term supply risks and support stable electricity output, which is particularly reassuring to local investors following recent weather-impacted volatility in generation.

A transition in leadership is underway, with Mike Roan named as incoming CEO, succeeding Neal Barclay at the end of June 2025. Expertly managed succession planning was confirmed in the company’s latest update, providing continuity and stability for strategic execution. Mike Roan’s appointment, drawn from internal talent, strengthens confidence among stakeholders and reduces uncertainty that typically surrounds CEO transitions, supporting Meridian’s project pipeline and operational consistency.

Meridian Energy’s medium-term outlook remains positive, supported by analyst consensus target price of NZ$6.30, representing 14.8% upside. Despite recent weaker financial results, the strong thematic of renewable energy expansion, robust dividend yield of 3.76%, and ongoing project developments underpin a constructive long-term assessment, particularly as Meridian retains its status as New Zealand’s largest and most innovative electricity generator. This combination of strategic investment and defensive income characteristics continues to support institutional and KiwiSaver portfolio inclusion.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.