Should I buy Eli Lilly stock in 2025? NZ Investor Analysis

What is Eli Lilly?

How much is the Eli Lilly stock?

The price of Eli Lilly stock is rising this week. As of now, Eli Lilly trades at $722.57 USD, showing a 24-hour gain of +$3.18 (+0.44%) but a slight weekly decrease of -0.33%. The company’s market capitalization stands at $648.68 billion, with an average 3-month trading volume of 4.17 million shares.

While volatility has eased recently, these indicators suggest a strong but more stable investment profile within the global pharmaceutical sector.

Our comprehensive analysis of Eli Lilly stock

After thoroughly reviewing Eli Lilly’s (LLY) latest financial results, historical stock performance, and benchmarking a wide array of datasets—including fundamental indicators, technical metrics, market flows, and competitive positioning—leveraged by proprietary algorithms, we present a comprehensive perspective tailored for discerning NZ investors. Over the past three years, the pharmaceutical leader has demonstrated remarkable growth, tempered only recently by a technical pullback, creating renewed interest in its risk/reward dynamics. So, why might Eli Lilly stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global healthcare sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Eli Lilly has registered spectacular multi-year returns, with a five-year share performance of +372.42%, placing it firmly among top-performing global healthcare equities. The current share price (as of 30 May 2025) stands at USD 722.57, within its 52-week range of USD 677.09 to USD 972.53. While the stock has corrected by -11% over the past twelve months and -9.2% over six months, this retreat comes after an extraordinary multi-year rally and appears correlated with broad profit-taking in the sector.

Significant recent events underpin this resilience. The fourth quarter 2024 earnings release revealed quarterly revenue soaring 45% year-on-year and net profit more than doubling, up 101%. Leading product launches—especially the weight-loss and diabetes treatments Mounjaro and Zepbound—have surpassed expectations, with combined annual sales over USD 16 billion. Newly secured regulatory approvals (e.g., Zepbound for sleep apnea in obese adults, Kisunla for early Alzheimer’s in China) are set to broaden addressable markets.

Sectorally, the pharmaceutical industry continues to benefit from robust global health spending, an accelerated obesity treatment market, and powerful demographic demand trends. Eli Lilly’s leadership in innovative therapeutics is especially notable amidst secular increases in lifestyle and chronic disease incidence, presenting a favourable macroeconomic and sector backdrop as we head into 2025.

Technical Analysis

Technically, despite a recent downtrend—reflected in the stock trading below all key moving averages (20/50/100/200-day)—the picture may be shifting. The RSI (14 days) at 40.54 signals neutral territory, suggesting the selloff is losing momentum but not yet oversold. The MACD reading of -22.85, however, issues a nascent buy signal, indicating the potential start of a bullish reversal. The ADX (30.44) remains neutral, supporting the view that the prevailing trend could be close to exhaustion.

Importantly for tactical investors, LLY is now hovering just above a key support zone (USD 715-720), a level that has historically attracted significant institutional interest. The current pivot (USD 723.62) offers a robust entry area, while initial resistance looms at USD 732.91 and USD 740.60. As technical momentum stabilises, the risk-reward dynamics appear increasingly skewed to the upside, particularly for those seeking to position ahead of a potential inflection.

Fundamental Analysis

From a fundamental standpoint, Eli Lilly’s growth trajectory has been nothing short of exceptional. FY2024 annual revenues expanded 32% to USD 45.04 billion, with net profits more than doubling to USD 10.6 billion—underscoring superior operational leverage. Gross margin remains best-in-class at 81.3%, reflecting pricing power and patent-protected franchises. Notably, core franchise Mounjaro registered 124% sales growth to USD 11.54 billion, and the recently launched Zepbound already generated USD 4.93 billion.

Such explosive earnings and margin expansion justify the current premium valuation (P/E trailing 12M: 58.84), supported by consensus expectations of a further 32% revenue surge in 2025. The prospective PEG ratio remains competitive relative to high-growth peers, suggesting that the growth premium is warranted. The annual dividend yield, while modest (0.83%), is backed by healthy free cash flows and robust payout capacity.

Structurally, Eli Lilly commands a dominant global position in the rapidly expanding obesity and diabetes market, supported by a formidable R&D pipeline (USD 10.99 billion spent in 2024). The company’s innovation prowess is evidenced by multiple blockbuster launches and geographic expansion into high-demand markets. With 47,000 employees and a nearly 150-year-old brand, Lilly’s reputation and scale are unrivalled in the sector.

Volume and Liquidity

Sustained trading volumes (3-month average: 4.17 million shares) reflect vibrant market participation and investor conviction. The company’s large free float enables efficient price discovery and deeply liquid trading, essential features for institutions and active NZ investors. The index inclusions, sizeable market cap (USD 648.68 billion), and frequent analyst coverage ensure ample liquidity—mitigating concerns of slippage or illiquidity even during market volatility.

Importantly, the recent volume surge around the USD 715-720 support zone suggests accumulation by long-term buyers, often a leading indicator of an impending trend reversal. The substantial share buyback programme (USD 15 billion announced) further tilts the balance in favour of dynamic valuation support and return-enhancing capital management.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Eli Lilly’s outlook is punctuated by robust near- and long-term catalysts:

• Product innovation: The pipeline includes multiple late-stage candidates in obesity, diabetes, oncology, and neurology. Blockbuster products like Zepbound and Mounjaro are on track for expanded indications and market launches.
• Clinical milestones: Positive Phase 3 results for pirtobrutinib (chronic lymphocytic leukaemia), promising Phase 2 results for muvalaplin, and differentiated data for Zepbound are set to drive further upside.
• Regulatory momentum: Recent approvals for Zepbound, Omvoh (Crohn’s), and Kisunla position Lilly for strong revenue uplifts across geographical and therapeutic lines.
• Manufacturing expansion: USD 3 billion committed to scale up supply (notably in Wisconsin), mitigating prior production bottlenecks and supporting increasing demand projections.
• Strong ESG profile: Ongoing investments in sustainable manufacturing and equitable access buttress the brand’s premium.
• Capital return: Aggressive share buyback programme reinforces shareholder value creation.

The consensus analyst 12-month price target averages USD 955.31 (+38.5% upside), with the high water mark set as high as USD 1,190, reflecting strong institutional optimism.

Investment Strategies

For investors weighing entry into LLY, the current setup supports diversified positioning across time frames:

• Short-term tactical entry: The proximity to multi-month support at USD 715-720, alongside early bullish technical signals, favours nimble entries for traders anticipating a mean reversion or bounce into the USD 730-760 range.
• Medium-term accumulation: Entry ahead of key clinical catalysts, regulatory decisions, or upcoming earnings (where sequential top-line and margin expansion are expected) positions investors to benefit from multiple rerating triggers.
• Long-term conviction buy: For NZ investors seeking core healthcare sector exposure, Lilly’s structural growth runway, leading brands, high margins, and sector best-in-class innovation pipeline underscore the merits of dollar-cost averaging on periodic weakness.

Positioning at current technical lows, especially as the fundamental and sentiment backdrop improves, seems to represent an excellent opportunity to capture the next phase of Lilly’s growth.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Eli Lilly?

Eli Lilly’s recent technical correction, combined with exceptional fundamentals and a powerful pipeline of clinical and commercial catalysts, highlights why the stock may be entering a new bullish phase. Sector tailwinds in obesity and metabolic disease, extensive R&D momentum, global brand strength, and dynamic capital deployment strategies collectively build a compelling case for renewed investor interest. With core support holding, analyst consensus targeting outsized upside, and market-leading liquidity, the timing appears favourable for serious consideration from NZ investors seeking both safety and growth within the global healthcare sector.

In this context, Eli Lilly emerges as a stock with outstanding upside potential, supported by resilient earnings power, innovative leadership, and an enviable competitive moat—making now a moment of real opportunity for those looking to invest with conviction in 2025’s most dynamic health sector names.

How to buy Eli Lilly stock in New Zealand?

Buying Eli Lilly (LLY) shares online is simple, secure, and accessible for New Zealand investors when using a licensed broker. You have two main ways to get exposure: you can either purchase shares directly (also called spot buying) or trade via Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allow you to speculate on the price movements with leverage. Each method has its own features and costs. The best broker for your needs will depend on your goals and preferences—see our broker comparison tool further down the page for detailed guidance.

Cash buying

A cash purchase means you own Eli Lilly shares outright in your brokerage account. New Zealand brokers typically charge a fixed commission per order—this can range from NZD $3 to $15 per US stock trade, often around the $5 mark.

Real-world example

Let’s look at a real-world example: if Eli Lilly’s share price is USD $722.57 (approx. NZD $1,180 at a 0.613 USD/NZD rate), with NZD $1,000 you could buy around 0.85 shares after accounting for a typical NZD $5 commission.

• ✔️ Gain scenario:
  If Eli Lilly’s share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth NZD $1,100.
• Result: That’s a NZD $100 gross gain—or +10% on your investment (before currency impact and taxes).

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) let you speculate on Eli Lilly’s price without owning the underlying shares. You only post a portion of the full value as margin—this is called leverage. For Eli Lilly CFDs, brokers usually charge a spread (the gap between buy and sell price) and a small overnight financing fee if you keep positions open for more than a day.

Gain calculation example

Suppose you invest NZD $1,000 with 5x leverage: you control NZD $5,000 worth of Eli Lilly shares.

• ✔️ Gain scenario:
  If Eli Lilly stock rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
• Result: That’s a NZD $400 gain on a NZD $1,000 outlay (excluding broker fees).

Final advice

Before committing funds, always compare brokers’ fees, commission structures, and trading conditions—these affect your final returns. Whether you choose to buy Eli Lilly shares directly or trade via CFDs depends entirely on your investment style and objectives. To help you make the best choice, our in-depth broker comparison is available further down the page.

Our 7 tips for buying Eli Lilly stock

The latest news about Eli Lilly

Eli Lilly reported outstanding quarterly and annual financial results, underscoring robust revenue and profit growth. For Q4 2024, revenue reached $13.53 billion, a 45% increase year-over-year, while net income doubled to $4.41 billion. Full-year 2024 revenue jumped 32% to $45.04 billion with net profit up 102% to $10.59 billion, supported by strong sales of flagship products Mounjaro and the newly launched Zepbound. This growth trajectory demonstrates operational strength and is particularly relevant for New Zealand given the increasing demand for innovative diabetes and obesity treatments observed regionally, where access to breakthrough medicines is a mounting healthcare priority.

The company secured multiple major regulatory approvals internationally, including key indications that may influence market access in New Zealand. Zepbound was approved for moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea in obese adults and Omvoh for active Crohn’s disease, both of which address needs also present in NZ. As New Zealand’s Medsafe often reviews products post-major market approvals, these advancements provide momentum for future local registration and availability, giving New Zealand investors and clinicians optimism around portfolio expansion.

Eli Lilly maintains a positive outlook for 2025 with strong financial guidance and ambitious market expansion plans that align with growth opportunities in Australasia. The company projects 32% mid-point revenue growth to $58–61 billion and expects substantial increases in product output, especially for incretin-based drugs. Global launches, including in new markets, support the rising prevalence of obesity and diabetes seen in New Zealand, and signal continued investment in supply chain resilience and regional distribution partnerships that could benefit local healthcare access and the company’s earnings profile.

Recent analyst consensus remains strongly positive, supported by upward revisions and a substantial upside potential from current price levels. With a consensus target price of $955.31 and strong buy recommendations from over 38 analysts, Eli Lilly’s stock offers roughly 38% upside. The bullish sentiment is underpinned by its category leadership, global reach, and innovation pipeline, all particularly resonant in regions like New Zealand that value healthcare innovation and stable, blue-chip exposure within international portfolios.

The company’s technical momentum suggests a possible inflection point for investors, highlighted by critical support levels and early signs of reversal. While Eli Lilly’s share price has recently corrected and trades below key moving averages, the medium-term signals—such as a neutral RSI and a buy indication from MACD—point towards a potential recovery from support around USD 715–720. This offers a possible attractive entry for New Zealand-based investors seeking long-term exposure, especially considering the company’s resilient fundamentals, sustained dividend, and dominant therapeutic positioning.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.