Should I buy Ryman Healthcare stock in 2025?

What is Ryman Healthcare?

How much is the Ryman Healthcare stock?

The price of Ryman Healthcare stock is falling this week. As of now, Ryman trades at NZ$2.10, reflecting a 5.41% drop over the past 24 hours and a 16.0% decrease for the week. The company’s market capitalisation stands at NZ$2.25 billion, with an average three-month daily volume of 2.77 million shares. No current P/E ratio is available due to recent losses, and the dividend yield is 0.00% as dividends are suspended. The stock’s beta is 1.04, signalling slightly higher volatility than the broader NZ market. The recent downside highlights short-term uncertainty, but investors will note analyst consensus pointing to significant medium-term recovery potential.

Our full analysis on the Ryman Healthcare stock

As part of our latest review of Ryman Healthcare’s financial performance and share price action over the past three years, we have combined core financial metrics, technical chart patterns, comparative peer benchmarks, and real-time market sentiment via our proprietary algorithms. By examining these multi-layered inputs, we aim to illuminate key strengths and potential upside drivers for Ryman’s pivotal position within the Australasian retirement and healthcare sector. So, why might Ryman Healthcare stock once again become a strategic entry point into the aged care and infrastructure space in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Despite considerable headwinds over the last 12 months, Ryman Healthcare’s current share price (NZ$2.10 as of 30 May 2025) reflects a valuation that has come under significant pressure. The company's share price is down 42.3% over the past year and 31.8% in the last six months—an adjustment which now places it near its 52-week low and well below its 2021–2022 highs.

However, this dramatic reset in valuation has occurred against the backdrop of transformative corporate developments and sector-wide shifts:

• Leadership Renewal: Naomi James’ appointment as CEO in late 2024, bringing operational and capital discipline, is already driving cost rationalisation efforts that shaved NZ$23 million off expenses in H2 FY25.
• Strengthened Balance Sheet: The NZ$1 billion capital raise in Q1 2025 arms Ryman with ample liquidity for expansion and resilience, bolstering market confidence about its capacity to execute on its village pipeline and operational improvements.
• Sector Tailwinds: The macro environment remains fundamentally supportive. New Zealand and Australia face accelerating demographic ageing, with policy reform in aged-care funding set to further incentivise quality providers. Sector volatility is moderating as regulatory clarity emerges, giving well-capitalised players like Ryman a structural advantage.

Importantly, the market consensus is shifting from near-term pessimism to a recognition of medium- and long-term upside—with analysts targeting an average price objective of NZ$3.67, a substantial 75% premium to current levels.

Technical Analysis

At first glance, technical charts indicate pronounced oversold conditions:

• RSI (14-day) at 21.09: A deeply oversold reading, rarely sustained for extended periods, which statistically precedes technical rebounds.
• MACD negative at -0.07: Continues to confirm the current bearish trend, but now sits near multi-year extremes.
• All Key Moving Averages (20, 50, 100, 200 days): The share price resides significantly below all major moving averages—a scenario historically associated with consolidation phases immediately prior to a trend reversal.
• Support and Resistance: Strong support has formed at NZ$2.10 (now the 52-week low), a level which has historically triggered institutional accumulation in oversold stocks. Immediate resistance is at NZ$2.26, beyond which a technical squeeze could quickly develop if positive catalysts emerge.

While technical signals currently confirm a “sell” momentum, this is precisely the juncture at which contrarian investors often identify early entry points. With volumes solid, downside appears increasingly contained, and the emergence of a bullish reversal could propel a sharp recovery should news flow turn more positive.

Fundamental Analysis

Ryman’s fundamentals underpin an attractive long-term thesis, even as near-term profitability has been impacted by strategic recalibration:

Revenue Growth and Strategic Expansion

• Revenue: FY25 revenue reached NZ$760.7 million, a robust 10% increase over FY24, reflecting resilient underlying demand and a still-favourable demographic profile.
• Net Loss: The reported loss of NZ$436.8 million in FY25 was largely attributable to one-off asset write-downs and conservative accounting adjustments, rather than operational underperformance.
• Growth Pipeline: Ryman maintains one of the largest expansion pipelines in the region, with 45 villages across NZ and Australia and clear plans to continue growing its footprint.

Valuation and Market Position

• Valuation: While price/earnings metrics (PER) are not meaningful due to one-off losses, the stock’s current price-to-revenue—and potential future price-to-earnings given expected EPS recovery—looks compelling relative to historic norms and to peers.
• Market Share and Brand Equity: As an undisputed leader in the integrated aged care sector, Ryman boasts network effects, brand loyalty, and a recurring revenue base through care and residency fees—a model that has proven itself resilient across cycles.
• Innovation: The company’s unique continuum-of-care village model is widely regarded as an innovation benchmark, allowing for high rates of resident retention and operational synergy.

Structural Strengths

• Dominant position in NZ’s retirement sector with established track record
• Predictable, recurring revenue streams due to weekly care fees
• Direct leverage to the powerful megatrend of ageing populations across both major markets

Volume and Liquidity

• Trading Activity: With a robust average daily volume of 2.77 million shares over the past quarter, liquidity has remained consistently strong. This reflects sustained institutional and retail interest—even in a period of price recalibration.
• Float: Out of a total 1.02 billion shares outstanding, a large float (842 million shares) supports orderly price discovery, while the recent capital raising further diversified the share register. As a result, Ryman offers a dynamic valuation profile that is well suited to both long-term investors and tactical market participants.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Looking forward, the company is uniquely positioned to benefit from several major potential catalysts:

• Ongoing Corporate Transformation: Under new leadership, cost structures are being aggressively streamlined and capital redeployed towards the best-returning opportunities.
• Regulatory and Policy Winds: New Zealand’s ongoing aged-care funding reforms are tipped to reward quality operators, potentially driving positive earnings revisions.
• Pipeline Deliveries: As Ryman brings new retirement villages online, revenue growth is forecast to accelerate—a key lever for margin and balance sheet improvement.
• Demographic Megatrend: The region’s rapidly ageing population remains the single largest structural tailwind in the sector—offering a multi-year visibility into demand, occupancy, and revenue.
• Potential for Dividend Reinstatement: As profitability and cash flows recover over the coming years, the prospect of a reinstated dividend would represent a clear catalyst for capital appreciation and investor engagement.
• Improved ESG Positioning: Ryman remains focused on sustainability in new developments, which increasingly appeals to institutional mandates oriented towards ESG-compliant investments.
• Consensus Upgrades: Current forecasts anticipate 47.3% annualised profit growth as extraordinary items normalise, pointing to an attractive re-rating potential as the turnaround story takes hold.

Investment Strategies

For investors evaluating ideal entry scenarios, Ryman Healthcare appears to present a range of compelling positioning choices:

• Short-Term Perspective: While technicals are currently negative, the stock is showing signs of being heavily oversold. For agile investors, this could represent an opportunity to position ahead of a technical bounce, with risk tightly managed against the NZ$2.10 support.
• Medium-Term Opportunity: With cost reductions, leadership renewal, and a strong balance sheet now in place, the next few quarters may see positive operational news flow and early signs of margin recovery. Entry during the current consolidation period could allow participation in the first phase of price normalisation toward consensus targets.
• Long-Term Conviction: For those with a multi-year horizon, the combination of powerful demographic demand, sectoral tailwinds, and the company’s proven ability to compound value over time arguably form a compelling case. Historical normalization after asset write-down cycles often rewards patient investors with outsized returns.
• Technical Positioning: Investors seeking to maximise upside versus risk may find the current price action—at 52-week lows and established technical support—a notably attractive entry, particularly as bullish catalysts begin to emerge.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Ryman Healthcare?

In summary, Ryman Healthcare exhibits a rare convergence of conditions that seem to represent an excellent opportunity for the discerning investor:

• The stock trades at deep value levels rarely seen in its history, underscored by meaningful technical support and robust trading liquidity.
• Recent operational setbacks are—on closer inspection—largely the result of prudent one-off adjustments and a rapid repositioning under renewed executive leadership.
• The medium-term outlook is supported by a clearly strengthening balance sheet, a rich development pipeline, and structural demographic growth drivers.
• With the company’s operational excellence, dominant market position, and multiple positive changes underway, the fundamentals more than justify a renewed interest.
• Analyst consensus is notably bullish, with a target price 75% above current levels supported by expectations for a strong earnings recovery.
• The stock may indeed be entering a new bullish phase as technical selling pressure dissipates and positive news flow emerges.

For those seeking a blend of recovery potential, sectoral resilience, and demographic growth, Ryman Healthcare clearly deserves to be on the radar for fresh capital allocation. As the story transitions from tactical stabilisation to strategic expansion, it marks a defining new chapter in the Australasian healthcare and infrastructure space—offering an ideal entry point for investors confident in long-term value creation and cyclical recovery.

How to buy Ryman Healthcare stock in New Zealand?

Buying Ryman Healthcare stock online is both straightforward and secure when you use a regulated broker in New Zealand. As an investor, you can choose between two main methods: buying real shares (spot buying) or trading contracts for difference (CFDs) that allow you to speculate on the price without owning the underlying shares. Each approach comes with its own benefits and risks, suitable for distinct investment objectives. If you’re unsure which option matches your needs, you’ll find a detailed broker comparison further down this page.

Spot buying

A cash (spot) purchase means you are buying actual Ryman Healthcare shares listed on the New Zealand Exchange (NZX), becoming a shareholder in the company. With most online brokers in NZ, you typically pay a fixed commission per trade—often around NZ$5–NZ$15 per order, depending on the platform.

Example

Example: If the Ryman Healthcare share price is NZ$2.10, a NZ$1,000 investment (with a NZ$5 brokerage fee) lets you buy approximately 473 shares (NZ$995 / NZ$2.10 ≈ 473 shares, the rest covering the fee).

✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price increases by 10% to NZ$2.31, your 473 shares are now worth NZ$1,093.63.

Result: That’s a +NZ$98.63 gross gain (+10% on your initial investment), not including brokerage charges on sale.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading involves speculation on the rise or fall of Ryman Healthcare’s share price without owning the actual shares. With CFDs, you can use leverage to amplify your market exposure, but this increases both potential profits and risks. Fees typically include the spread (the difference between buying and selling prices) and overnight financing if positions are kept open beyond the trading day.

Example

Example: Suppose you open a CFD position on Ryman Healthcare shares using NZ$1,000 as margin with 5x leverage, so your exposure is NZ$5,000.

✔️ Gain scenario: If the stock price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40% return, or +NZ$400 on your NZ$1,000 margin (excluding fees and interest costs).

Final advice

Before investing in Ryman Healthcare, it's essential to compare the fees, spreads, and conditions offered by different brokers, as these can impact your net return. Your choice between cash buying and CFD trading will depend on your investment horizon, risk appetite, and objectives—whether you prefer to hold shares long-term or seek faster, leveraged trading opportunities. To help you, a side-by-side broker comparison is available a little further down the page. Always invest according to your own goals and financial situation.

Our 7 tips for buying Ryman Healthcare stock

The latest news about Ryman Healthcare

Ryman Healthcare’s share price hit a fresh 52-week low, declining 16% over the last seven days. This significant drop follows the release of the FY25 results, which saw the stock close at NZ$2.10, reflecting heightened volatility on the NZX and heightened investor sensitivity to loss figures. Despite short-term bearish sentiment, the stock maintains high liquidity with an average daily turnover of 2.77 million shares, suggesting active interest and potential responsiveness to any positive developments in the coming weeks.

The company delivered a robust 10% revenue growth year-on-year, reaching NZ$760.7 million in FY25. This increase is notable amid sectoral headwinds and underscores Ryman’s resilience and ability to expand its operational footprint in both New Zealand and Australia. The revenue momentum confirms strong demand fundamentals in the aged care sector, supported by continued demographic tailwinds, and reinforces Ryman’s dominant market position locally.

Analyst consensus remains optimistic, predicting a 75% potential upside with a target price of NZ$3.67. Despite the recent correction and temporary operational losses, four major analysts covering the stock see substantial medium-term rebound potential, underpinned by projected annual earnings growth of 47.3%. Their outlook is mainly based on management’s ongoing restructuring efforts, an anticipated improvement in operational efficiency, and favourable demographic dynamics in New Zealand.

Operational restructuring in the second half of FY25 delivered NZ$23 million in cost reductions. This strategic initiative, combined with the NZ$1 billion equity raising earlier in 2025, has strengthened Ryman’s balance sheet and laid the foundation for margin enhancement. These moves signal decisive action by the new leadership team—headed by CEO Naomi James since November 2024—to restore profitability and build long-term shareholder value, which may bolster investor confidence as restructuring benefits become more visible.

The company’s strategic development pipeline and sector reforms are key future catalysts for growth. Ryman’s established pipeline of new retirement villages, a leading integrated care model, and the prospect of pricing reform in the NZ and Australian aged care sectors are expected to support sustainable expansion. The rising senior population and local policy developments further enhance the investment case for New Zealand-based institutions and long-term holders, positioning Ryman as a key beneficiary of structurally growing healthcare demand.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.