Should I buy Chevron stock in 2025? (NZ Analysis)

What is Chevron?

How much is the Chevron stock?

The price of Chevron stock is rising this week. As of now, Chevron trades at $137.91 USD, showing a 24-hour gain of $1.89 (+1.39%), while on a weekly basis, the stock has also seen an uptick. With a market capitalisation of $238.86 billion, Chevron’s average 3-month volume stands at 9.78 million shares. Its current P/E ratio is 15.78 and the dividend yield is an appealing 4.96%, with a five-year stock beta of 0.81, indicating lower volatility compared to the market. For Kiwi investors, this strong dividend and relative stability may offer a compelling mix of income and resilience.

Our full analysis on the Chevron stock

Having conducted a comprehensive review of Chevron Corporation’s latest financial results, along with an in-depth assessment of the stock’s trajectory over the past three years, we leveraged proprietary analytics blending fundamental metrics, technical signals, sector data, and competitive benchmarking. This multifaceted approach offers a rigorous, high-confidence perspective. So, why might Chevron stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global energy sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Chevron (NYSE: CVX) has demonstrated resilience in a complex market over the past year. As of 30 May 2025, the stock trades at USD $137.91, within a 52-week range of $132.04–$168.96. Although the stock has declined 12.1% over the past twelve months and 14.8% in the last six months, this retracement must be viewed within the broader energy sector context, which has faced cyclical pressures due to softening oil prices and global energy policy transitions.

Yet, moments of underperformance can often establish an attractive base for long-term investors. Chevron’s recent intraday rise of 1.39% and sustained volume near 9.8 million shares signal a return of positive sentiment and market attention, likely in anticipation of major strategic catalysts. Notably, Q1 2025 results revealed a robust net cash return to shareholders of $6.9 billion, further evidencing strength in capital allocation and cash-flow reliability amid sector headwinds. The completion of the FTC antitrust review for the $53 billion Hess acquisition—pending only arbitration outcomes—cements Chevron’s leadership ambitions and global reach, fortifying its narrative as a high-conviction holding for diversified portfolios.

Importantly for New Zealand investors and global allocators, Chevron’s size, liquidity, and integrated model provide a buffer against isolated regional shocks. Its beta of 0.81 over five years confirms defensive properties, and a forward yield of 4.96% stands out as especially appealing in a low-interest-rate environment.

Technical Analysis

Technical signals for Chevron currently provide a nuanced, but ultimately optimistic, picture.

• Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44.0 — Neutral, sitting just below the classic 50 threshold, which often precedes reversals from oversold conditions.
• MACD at -1.12 — While a bearish signal historically, it’s often seen as a lagging indicator and may suggest exhaustion of selling momentum.
• ADX at 16.7 and Williams %R at -77.4 — Both indicate the foundation for an imminent buy scenario; the latter in particular often signals oversold levels.
• Moving averages (20d, 50d, 100d, 200d) — All currently above spot, yet this confluence of negative momentum near strong support ($132.04) may be interpreted as capitulation.

The stock’s retreat toward 52-week support—while technical models still display a consensus "sell"—has historically provided a base for high-conviction investors. For adept market participants, such technical “lows” often herald the final phases before sentiment and price action pivot, especially when paired with company-specific catalysts.

Taken together, this technical tableau, paired with robust volume, points to the building of a new medium-term base. Patterns such as these regularly precede trend reversals in structurally strong, dividend-paying blue chips like Chevron.

Fundamental Analysis

Chevron’s fundamental narrative remains compelling despite recent cyclical earnings softness. For Q1 2025, the company reported net earnings of $3.5 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $2.18, modestly outpacing consensus. Revenue of $47.6 billion, though slightly below forecasts and down 2% year-over-year, is impressive given a 36% decline in net profit, attributable to lower commodity prices and sector cost inflation.

Key fundamental strengths include:

• Attractive Valuation: Trading at a P/E of 15.78, EV/EBITDA of 6.12, and a modest price-to-book of 1.58, Chevron appears reasonably valued, especially given its capital-light integrated structure and consistent cash-flow generation.
• Best-in-Class Cash Flow: Chevron’s $13.5 billion in trailing free cash flow and 12 consecutive quarters of >$5 billion shareholder return underscore discipline in capital allocation.
• Scalable Growth Drivers: The $53 billion Hess acquisition (Guyana’s prolific Stabroek block access) is set to reshape production, boosting long-term output and cash margins once integrated.
• Robust Balance Sheet: With a debt/equity ratio of just under 20% and investment-grade metrics, Chevron remains resilient through commodity cycles.
• Brand & Scale: As the world’s second-largest US oil & gas major, controlling 3.0m boe/d in production, 9.8bn boe proved reserves, and 1.8m bpd refining, Chevron’s scale is difficult to replicate.

Notably, the stock’s 4.96% forward yield, supported by stable cash flow, offers a compelling source of income for NZ-based and global income-focused portfolios at a time when safe, dependable yield is in high demand.

Volume and Liquidity

Trading volume provides a window into institutional conviction. Chevron’s 3-month average daily volume of nearly 10 million shares reflects deep liquidity and underscores the market’s continued interest even during periods of drawdown. Tight bid-ask spreads facilitate efficient positioning for both active traders and long-only allocators.

Its large and diverse float—in concert with a market capitalisation of $238.9 billion—lays fertile ground for dynamic revaluations as new information or macro trends unfold. Such liquidity is a cornerstone for serious institutional participants, which in turn anchors valuation and provides entry/exit flexibility for retail and professional investors alike.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

A suite of powerful positive catalysts are in play for Chevron as 2025 unfolds:

• Hess Corporation Acquisition: Potential access to Guyana’s world-class Stabroek reserves positions Chevron for decades of profitable growth; decision from ongoing arbitration with ExxonMobil is expected late August 2025.
• US Shale Upscaling: Expanded presence in the Bakken reinforces Chevron’s US shale leadership and amplifies short-cycle flexibility.
• Ongoing Financial Firepower: Longstanding practice of robust capital return—with cash payouts exceeding $5 billion per quarter for 12 straight quarters—signals value discipline at the highest level.
• Technological Leadership: Investments in enhanced oil recovery and refining innovation continue to bear fruit.
• Strategic Geographic Diversification: Recent expansion into Guyana and continued global investments provide insulation from single-market volatility.
• ESG Initiatives: Progress, including lower flaring and emissions reductions, may unlock new investor constituencies as the energy transition advances, even while oil demand remains robust globally.
• Dividend Growth Potential: A confirmed 4.96% yield, underpinned by strong cash flows, makes Chevron an appealing defensive growth and income story.

With sector demand recovering and the crude oil cycle bottoming, these catalysts may become increasingly influential—particularly if the Hess deal crosses the finish line.

Investment Strategies

Chevron’s current technical and fundamental posture supports a variety of investment strategies:

• Short Term: Entry near strong support (around $132–$138) appears tactically well-timed, capitalizing on recent technical overselling. Should arbitration on the Hess deal resolve positively, a swift re-rating is plausible.
• Medium Term: Pending acquisition closure, integration synergies, and operational efficiencies could drive sustained margin and cash-flow improvements—fertile ground for a 6–12 month revaluation, especially into year-end 2025.
• Long Term: For yield-seeking, buy-and-hold investors, Chevron’s track record of dividend growth, disciplined capital allocation, and prime asset base underpin attractive multi-year compounding prospects. The consensus target price of $162.46 (c. +18% upside from current levels) is a further testament to anticipated appreciation.

Investors positioning now, ahead of the final Hess resolution, may benefit from both technical mean-reversion and fundamental catalysts—two key conditions that reinforce the thesis for allocating capital in the current window.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Chevron?

In sum, Chevron stands out for its combination of scale, operational resilience, strategic vision, and shareholder-centric policies. While recent revenue and earnings softness mirrors global energy volatility, Chevron’s robust yield, fortress balance sheet, and decisive strategic expansion via the Hess acquisition lay the groundwork for a new cycle of growth and value creation. The stock’s retreat to technical support, coupled with persistent volume and multiple looming catalysts, means the fundamentals increasingly justify a renewed look—if not outright enthusiasm—toward Chevron’s role in global portfolios.

With a consensus price target implying nearly 18% upside from current levels, solid near-term income, and exposure to world-class upstream assets on the cusp of integration, the opportunity for strategic entry appears clear for investors with a medium- or long-term horizon. In the context of today’s yield-constrained, volatility-prone markets, Chevron’s fundamentals and positioning seem to represent an excellent opportunity for those seeking both reliable income and capital growth potential in the energy sector.

In conclusion, Chevron exhibits the strengths, momentum, and structural catalysts that frequently precede a new bullish phase—inviting discerning investors to consider whether now is the time to position ahead of the curve for 2025 and beyond.

How to buy Chevron stock in New Zealand?

Buying Chevron stock (CVX) online has become straightforward and secure for New Zealand investors, thanks to regulated brokers that comply with both international and NZ local requirements. You can invest by purchasing Chevron shares directly (“spot buying” or “cash buying”) or by trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which track Chevron’s price without owning the stock itself. Each method has distinct features, risks and fee structures. It’s important to consider which is best for you. For a detailed broker comparison—including fees, account types, and trading platforms—see the section further down this page.

Spot buying

Spot (or cash) buying means you become the direct owner of Chevron shares, listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: CVX). Your shares are held securely by the broker in your name. As a cash investor, you usually pay a flat commission per trade—often around NZ$5–NZ$15 with most online brokers in New Zealand. Let’s use a concrete example:

Example: Spot buying Chevron shares

• Assume the Chevron share price is US$137.91 (approx. NZ$226).
• With NZ$1,000, after a NZ$5 brokerage fee, you could buy about 4 shares (NZ$904 for 4 shares, plus NZ$5 fee = NZ$909 total).
• Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your holdings would then be worth NZ$994.
• Result: Gross gain of NZ$90 (10%), illustrating the return if Chevron performs positively.

You’ll also be entitled to dividends if Chevron pays them, and your shares aren’t subject to leverage or daily financing fees.

Trading via CFD

CFD (Contract for Difference) trading allows you to speculate on Chevron’s share price without owning the underlying stock. With CFDs, you can use leverage to gain larger market exposure with less initial capital. Typical fees for CFD trading include a spread (the difference between buying and selling prices), and overnight financing charges if you hold positions open for more than one day.

Example: Trading Chevron via CFD with leverage

• Example: With NZ$1,000 and 5x leverage, you control a Chevron CFD position of NZ$5,000.
• Gain scenario: If Chevron’s share price increases by 8%, your exposure means an effective gain of 8% × 5 = 40%.
• Result: This would yield a gross gain of NZ$400 on your NZ$1,000 stake (before fees such as spread and overnight financing).

CFDs enable both long (buy) and short (sell) strategies, but note that leverage will magnify both profits and losses, and overnight holding costs can add up quickly.

Final advice

Before investing in Chevron—or any international share—it’s essential to compare the fees and features offered by different brokers available in New Zealand. Consider transaction costs, currency conversion charges, platform usability, and support. The best approach depends on your investment goals: if you want long-term ownership with dividend potential, spot buying may suit you; if you seek short-term trading or use of leverage, CFDs could be more appropriate. For a detailed comparison tailored to NZ investors, check out the broker comparison further down the page.

Our 7 tips for buying Chevron stock

The latest news about Chevron

Chevron stock maintains stability and posts a 1.39% intraday increase despite broader sector challenges. On 30 May 2025, Chevron’s share price closed at $137.91 USD, climbing by $1.89 or 1.39% in the session, reflecting relative resilience amid ongoing volatility in global energy markets. This outperformance in the context of recent sector softness offers some encouragement for institutional and retail investors, including those in New Zealand who typically track large integrated oil players for their pivotal role in energy supply and as benchmark dividend payers.

The company’s Q1 2025 results showed a strong cash return to shareholders and slightly exceeded earnings consensus. Chevron reported $3.8 billion in adjusted net income ($2.18 per share), surpassing the analyst consensus of $2.15 per share, and returned $6.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. For New Zealand-based investors and funds—who prize stable income streams—Chevron continues to offer one of the sector’s most attractive forward dividend yields at 4.96%, underpinned by robust cash-flow operations across global assets.

Catalytic progress toward the acquisition of Hess Corporation, including clearance by US antitrust regulators, enhances Chevron’s long-term growth optionality. Chevron finalized regulatory approval from the US Federal Trade Commission for its proposed $53 billion acquisition of Hess, reinforcing management’s confidence in the transaction by acquiring nearly 5% of Hess shares on the open market. The awaited outcome of the arbitration with ExxonMobil, expected in late August 2025, will determine full completion. For New Zealand entities monitoring oil exposure, the integration of Hess’s prolific Guyana assets could have material uplift for Chevron’s reserves and production profile, strengthening global supply chains relevant to Asia-Pacific energy security.

Chevron maintains exemplary financial discipline, with a debt-to-equity ratio under 20% and consecutive quarters of strong free cash flow generation. Amid macro pressures, Chevron’s 12th consecutive quarter of over $5 billion cash distributions and free cash flow of $13.52 billion demonstrate defensive balance sheet management. Its equity and debt profile allow sustained capital expenditures, share buybacks, and robust dividends, supporting reliable investment income—a primary selection criterion for New Zealand institutional investors and retirement funds seeking exposure to the energy sector via the NYSE.

Strong consensus upside remains, underpinned by global diversification, ongoing innovation, and large-scale North American and Guyana portfolio integration. The latest analyst consensus price target stands at $162.46, implying 18% upside from current levels, bolstered by Chevron’s expanding presence in both North America and the high-growth Guyana region. As Chevron continues to emphasise technology-driven extraction and operational efficiency, New Zealand financial professionals can expect continued robust performance from the company’s global business model, which is relevant for portfolios exposed to international energy trends and US blue-chip dividend streams.

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P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.