Should I Buy Mattel Stock in 2025? NZ Investor Insights

What is Mattel?

How much is the Mattel stock?

The price of Mattel stock is rising this week. As of now, Mattel trades at $19.39 USD, up 1.89% in the past 24 hours and gaining 2.00% over the last week. The company’s market capitalisation stands at $6.26 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 4.69 million shares over the past three months. Mattel features a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.35, does not currently pay a dividend, and has a stock beta of 0.62, suggesting lower than average volatility. This stability may appeal to New Zealand investors looking for exposure to a recognised global brand with moderate risk levels.

Our full analysis of the Mattel stock

Having meticulously reviewed Mattel’s most recent financial disclosures alongside the stock’s multi-year performance, and applying our proprietary cross-analysis of technical, fundamental, and comparative sector data, it emerges that Mattel now displays a notably reinforced investment profile. Our rigorously calibrated algorithms highlight a convergence of bullish structural factors and improved strategic execution. So, why might Mattel stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global leisure and entertainment sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Mattel's stock has demonstrated resilience and consistent upward momentum over the past year, closing at USD $19.39 as of 30 May 2025—reflecting a 10.48% annual gain and outperforming several consumer cyclical peers. Notably, the year-to-date performance stands at +9.36%, with a robust six-month appreciation of 1.95%, indicating the stock’s ability to generate stable medium-term returns. Within the past week alone, Mattel gained 2%, breaking above short-term technical thresholds, despite the traditionally muted period preceding the mid-year results season.

Major corporate developments in 2024-2025 have contributed significantly to this positive market sentiment. The company executed $400 million in share repurchases during 2024 with a clear trajectory to elevate that figure to $600 million in 2025—a strong indicator of management's confidence in both the balance sheet and future cash flow streams. The recent appointment of Paul Ruh as CFO further augments management capital allocation capabilities and provides fresh impetus to Mattel’s evolving financial strategy.

In parallel, macroeconomic conditions have been broadly supportive. The global leisure segment continues to benefit from the return of consumer discretionary spending post-pandemic, while the nascent digital transformation of the toy industry positions Mattel advantageously to capitalise on both traditional and emerging revenue streams. For New Zealand-based investors, the U.S. recovery narrative, combined with the company’s significant North American and global market share, provides solid exposure to international consumer trends with risk-mitigating diversification.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, Mattel displays a compelling risk-reward setup. The stock currently trades above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages ($17.48 and $17.71, respectively), which is typically interpreted as a bullish confirmation of trend persistence. Both moving averages are sloping upward, underpinning a strong positive price structure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 74.56 indicates a technically overbought territory, which could trigger a short-term pullback or consolidation; however, it also evidences sustained upward price pressure—a hallmark of emerging bullish phases in historically underpriced equities. The MACD registers at 0.65, marginally suggesting the possibility of a temporary cooling, but this is counterbalanced by the stock holding well above key support ($17.50), with immediate resistance only marginally higher at $19.52-$19.60.

Importantly, high turnover and strong price action above support levels suggest that any retracement may present tactical entry points for those seeking to establish a new position ahead of the next anticipated upward leg.

Fundamental Analysis

• Revenue and Profitability: Q4 2024 saw revenues rise 2% year-on-year to $1.646 billion, with annual revenues reaching $5.38 billion. While overall annual sales were marginally lower (-1%), profitability improved sharply—gross margins expanded to an impressive 50.9%, up 340 basis points, and adjusted operating income surged by $97 million to $738 million.
• Earnings and Free Cash Flow: Adjusted EPS rose to $1.62 (+$0.39 from 2023), and free cash flow for the year was a robust $598 million—signalling healthy cash generation and prudent operational management.
• Valuation: With a trailing P/E of 12.35 and forward P/E of 11.64, Mattel trades at a significant discount to the broader U.S. leisure and entertainment complex, where sector averages are materially higher. The conservative PEG and P/S multiples further underscore the stock’s undervalued status.
• Strategic Expansion & Brand Strength: Despite the temporary volume softness in its flagship Barbie line (-12% y/y), Hot Wheels sales jumped 10% and Fisher-Price increased 3%, reflecting effective brand management and consumer loyalty. The company remains a global leader with a suite of iconic properties, positioning it to monetise both physical and digital platforms.

Volume and Liquidity

Liquidity remains deep and reliable, with a three-month average daily trading volume of 4.69 million shares and a sizable float of approximately 320 million shares. Such sustained activity reflects high investor confidence and strong institutional interest, facilitating efficient price discovery and enabling NZ-based investors to execute both short- and medium-term trades without significant slippage.

Mattel’s market capitalisation of $6.26 billion offers a balanced profile between mid-cap growth and large-cap stability, allowing for dynamic valuation opportunities in response to operational catalysts.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

• Digital Transformation: Accelerated investments into digital experiences—most recently, the launch of "Mattel Match: Toybox Unlocked" with Uken Games and the expansion of "Uno Social Clubs"—demonstrate Mattel’s ability to innovate and capture new online revenue segments, particularly in gaming and experiential platforms.
• Operational Optimisation: A targeted $200 million in cost savings by 2026 via ongoing efficiencies underwrites flat to improving margins even in a subdued sales environment.
• Shareholder Returns: The ongoing and expanded share buyback program, coupled with healthy cash flows, points to further enhancements in per-share metrics, compounding returns for remaining shareholders with each tranche.
• ESG and Sustainability Focus: Mattel’s leadership in sustainable product lines and responsibly managed supply chains resonates increasingly with global consumers and institutional investors, potentially unlocking new pools of demand.
• 2025 Guidance: Management forecasts 2–3% constant-currency top-line growth, with adjusted EPS targeted between $1.66 and $1.72 and approximately $600 million in anticipated free cash flow—objectives fully backed by ongoing digital transformation and brand monetisation initiatives.

Investment Strategies

• Short-Term: For technically-oriented investors, the current elevated RSI and minor resistance at $19.60 may present tactical opportunities to enter on any pullbacks toward the $17.50 support area, which aligns with key moving averages and recent volume clusters.
• Medium-Term: Anticipating the next wave of digital launches and the realisation of cost saving initiatives, a medium-term position appears well-supported, particularly into the lead-up of Q3 and Q4 seasonal peaks, historically strong periods for revenue expansion in the toy sector.
• Long-Term: Mattel’s ongoing share repurchases, rich IP portfolio, and capacity to navigate cyclical and secular transformations in consumer behaviour make it a compelling core holding. The stock’s discounted valuation and consensus target price of $23.50 (+23.6% upside, with some analysts reaching as high as $30) position it as a potential outperformer in a diversified, global equity portfolio.

Ideal positioning would occur either during tactical dips to technical lows or in advance of major digital and product release catalysts, providing a blend of value and momentum exposure.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Mattel?

Synthesising the technical, fundamental, and strategic dimensions—Mattel presents a rare confluence of value, margin expansion, and innovation-driven growth. Key strengths include:

• Substantial improvement in profitability and free cash flow generation, underpinned by a disciplined operational focus.
• A well-executed digital pivot opening up multiple high-margin, high-growth opportunities.
• Ambitious buybacks and strong management, fostering a shareholder-oriented capital framework.
• An attractive valuation relative to both peers and historical averages, suggesting underappreciated upside.
• Ongoing product and digital launches serving as tangible near-term and structural catalysts.

While moderate risks around tariff exposure and sector cyclicality should be acknowledged, the company’s increasing operational flexibility and portfolio diversification mitigate many historical vulnerabilities. Market sentiment remains supportive, and consensus points toward continued appreciation.

In conclusion, Mattel appears strategically positioned not just for recovery, but for a new phase of durable, innovation-led expansion—seemingly representing an excellent opportunity for investors seeking exposure to a revitalised leader in global leisure and entertainment. As the industry dynamic continues to shift toward digital convergence and brand monetisation, Mattel’s renewed momentum suggests it is a stock to closely watch—and, for well-prepared investors, perhaps seriously consider for addition to a forward-looking portfolio.

How to buy Mattel stock in NZ?

Buying shares of Mattel (NASDAQ: MAT) online is a straightforward and secure process for New Zealand investors, provided you use a regulated broker. Today’s online platforms allow you to purchase Mattel shares directly (“spot buying”) or speculate on their price movements using Contracts for Difference (CFDs). Spot buying means you become a shareholder, while CFDs enable flexible trading, often with leverage, without owning the underlying asset. Each method has its own features, risks, and fees. To help you choose the best solution, we compare top brokers and their offers further down the page.

Cash buying

Cash buying is the act of purchasing physical Mattel shares on the stock market, making you a direct shareholder. This method is suitable for long-term investors seeking to participate in Mattel’s future growth. Most NZ-friendly brokers charge a fixed commission per order, generally ranging from NZD $3 to $15 for US stocks.

Example

Suppose the Mattel share price is USD $19.39 (about NZD $32 as per recent FX rates). With a NZD $1,000 investment and a typical brokerage fee of NZD $5, you can buy approximately 31 shares (NZD $993 value, NZD $5 fee).
✔️ Gain scenario:
If Mattel's share price rises by 10%, your portfolio would grow to NZD $1,100.
Result: That’s a +NZD $100 gross gain, or +10% on your investment (excluding currency conversion effects and tax).

Trading via CFD

When trading Mattel shares via CFDs (Contracts for Difference), you do not own the actual shares. Instead, you speculate on the price changes, which enables both rising and falling market strategies. Fees for CFDs generally consist of the spread (the difference between buy/sell price) and potential overnight financing charges if you keep positions open overnight.

Example

Say you open a CFD position for Mattel with NZD $1,000, using 5x leverage. You are now exposed to NZD $5,000 worth of Mattel shares.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If Mattel’s price increases by 8%, your position’s value rises by 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: That’s a +NZD $400 profit on your NZD $1,000 margin (excluding fees such as spread and financing).

Final advice

Before investing in Mattel shares, it’s important to compare the fees and conditions offered by different brokers and platforms—these can notably affect your returns. Your choice between cash buying and CFDs should match your investment goals and risk appetite. To help you make the right decision, you’ll find a comprehensive broker comparison further down this page. Investing in strong brands like Mattel can be an exciting opportunity—just be sure to choose the approach that best suits your financial strategy.

Our 7 tips for buying Mattel stock

The latest news about Mattel

Mattel’s share price posted a robust 2% gain over the past week, boosting its year-to-date performance to 9.36%. This positive momentum is reinforced by the current analyst consensus, which places Mattel’s 12-month price target at $23.50 per share—a 23.6% upside from current levels—indicating continued investor confidence in the company’s strategic direction. For New Zealand-based investors, Mattel’s global market reach and its products' widespread distribution through both major local retailers and online platforms ensure the company’s performance remains directly relevant to the domestic market, especially given New Zealand’s advanced e-commerce and retail sectors.

Mattel has advanced its digital and gaming expansion, most notably via a fresh partnership with Uken Games and new product launches. In the last week, Mattel announced the launch of “Mattel Match: Toybox Unlocked” with Uken Games and unveiled new digital engagement concepts such as the “Uno Social Clubs.” These initiatives directly enhance the digital experience of Mattel brands readily available to New Zealand families, further supporting the company’s push into high-growth segments and providing incremental avenues for revenue growth that are highly relevant for markets with digitally engaged populations like New Zealand.

The company’s Q4 and 2024 annual results demonstrated significant margin improvement and robust cash generation, supporting ongoing buyback programs. Mattel reported a fourth quarter with a 2% year-over-year sales increase, gross margins improving by 190 basis points to 50.7%, and a strong net profit. For the full year, the company achieved a 340-basis-point gross margin expansion and generated $598 million in free cash flow. These results underpin Mattel’s recently declared $400 million buyback in 2024 (with a $600 million target for 2025), signaling strong capital discipline and shareholder-friendly policies that benefit both international and New Zealand-based investors.

Operationally, Mattel’s core brands—Hot Wheels and Fisher-Price—delivered solid growth, offsetting softness in the Barbie portfolio and diversifying revenue streams. Hot Wheels registered a 10% annual sales increase and Fisher-Price grew by 3%, demonstrating the resilience and international appeal of these flagship brands. This is especially relevant to the New Zealand market where these products remain perennial bestsellers, supporting Mattel’s defensive qualities and global scalability while helping insulate the company from category-specific downturns.

Mattel’s near-term outlook remains positive, with 2–3% sales growth, stable margins, and continued strategic investment in content and digital experiences. Management’s 2025 guidance projects stable adjusted gross margins and free cash flow around $600 million, with further digital investments and operational optimizations targeting $200 million in cost savings through 2026. These moves not only strengthen Mattel’s international competitiveness but also expand its market relevance in digitally mature economies like New Zealand, positioning the company well for further growth and innovation in the sector.

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P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.