Should I buy Sunrun stock in 2025? Full NZ Review

What is Sunrun?

How much is the Sunrun stock?

The price of Sunrun stock is falling this week. As of now, Sunrun (RUN) trades at $6.75 USD, reflecting a -6.12% change over the past 24 hours and a downward weekly trend.

The company’s market capitalisation stands at $1.54 billion USD, with an average trading volume over three months of approximately 11.5 million shares.

Sunrun does not currently have a P/E ratio due to ongoing losses, nor does it pay a dividend (0% yield); however, its stock beta is 2.66, indicating significant volatility compared to the broader market.

For New Zealand investors, this combination of high fluctuations and no dividend highlights both the opportunity and the risk inherent in Sunrun’s trajectory.

Our full analysis on the Sunrun stock

After a rigorous review of Sunrun’s most recent quarterly results and a comprehensive examination of its multi-year share price trajectory, our proprietary algorithms—integrating financial, technical, and sector-wide data—reveal a company at a strategic inflection point. By benchmarking Sunrun against industry peers and analyzing current market dynamics, emergent technical patterns, and the latest consensus projections, a compelling picture emerges. So, why might Sunrun stock once again become a strategic entry point into the fast-evolving US clean energy sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Stock Price Movement: A Window of Opportunity

Sunrun (NASDAQ: RUN) currently trades at $6.75 USD as of 30 May 2025, repositioned near the lower end of its 52-week range ($5.45–$22.26). This marks a pronounced correction from its highs, reflecting broader volatility across the US clean tech and solar sector. Notably, despite a sharp intraday pullback of -6.12%, the stock’s short-term consolidation coincides with heightened volume and oversold technical signals—conditions that historically precede structural rebounds in high-beta, innovation-led equities.

Positive Recent Developments

• Cash generation marking its third consecutive positive quarter ($34.2 million in Q4 2024), a testament to effective cost control and improving operating leverage.
• Client contract revenues surged 21% YoY in Q4, representing $388.6 million, illustrating both subscription model resilience and superior customer retention.
• Debt profile de-risked, as the company repaid $132 million in recurring debt, reflecting a prudent approach toward balance sheet management even as the sector faces rising financing costs.
• Strategic fundraising: Over $4 billion raised in 2024 through asset-backed structures and tax equity, substantially reinforcing liquidity and growth runway.
• Storage attachment rate elevated to 62%, capturing robust demand for integrated solar-plus-storage solutions and positioning Sunrun to capitalize on the energy transition’s multi-year secular tailwind.

Favourable Sector Backdrop

For New Zealand investors or globally-focused portfolios, the US Inflation Reduction Act continues to provide a catalytic macroeconomic backdrop for renewables and distributed generation. Policy certainty, generous tax credits, and accelerating grid resilience investments are fuelling both retail adoption and utility partnerships. Clean power, notably residential solar and behind-the-meter storage, is a multi-decade growth story increasingly insulated from commodity price cycles and global economic uncertainty.

Technical Analysis

Indicators Pointing to Inflection

While the recent correction has result in the price falling below medium and long-term moving averages—specifically, 20-day ($9.12), 50-day ($7.60), and 200-day ($11.49)—several leading momentum indicators now point to a potential bullish reversal:

• RSI (14d) at 39.51: Approaching oversold, frequently signalling accumulation phases in high-growth equities.
• MACD (12,26,9) at 0.12: Current positive crossover, often associated with the initial phase of upward momentum.
• Williams %R at –91.65: Deep in oversold territory, supporting the bullish reversal narrative.

The zone between $6.26 (major technical and historical support) and $7.19 (short-term resistance) highlights an appealing risk-reward set-up, with the next upside price target at $7.97. Structurally, periods of extreme oversold readings paired with surging volumes have historically been followed by decisive sharp upswings, especially when the fundamental narrative remains intact.

Momentum and Structure: The Bullish Case

• Near-term: Multi-session basing above $6.26 may signal the formation of a durable low, attractive for investors seeking a tactical entry point.
• Medium-term: Should the stock reclaim the $7.14–$7.97 resistance band, bullish momentum could attract active capital and accelerate the trend toward consensus price targets.

Fundamental Analysis

Revenue Growth and Profitability Dynamics

Sunrun closed Q4 2024 with:

• Quarterly revenue of $518.5 million (+0.4% YoY), reflecting stable topline performance despite industry turbulence.
• Customer contract revenue up 21% YoY, underpinned by recurring subscription growth—a hallmark of resilience and high-quality sales mix.
• Adjusted EPS exceptional beat: $1.41 versus a –$0.27 estimate, signalling efficiency gains, successful hedging, and management’s focus on core profitability.

Attractive Valuation

• Market capitalisation at $1.54 billion USD is at a historic trough relative to R&D, installed asset base, and recurrent revenue profile.
• Price/Sales ratio remains compressed compared to its 5-year average, reflecting market dislocation rather than any structural business impairment.
• While Sunrun is yet to return to GAAP net profitability, sustained improvements in operating and free cash flow generation suggest the model is de-risking at an accelerated pace.

Structural Strengths and Competitive Edge

• Dominant subscription-based market leadership in the US residential solar space, with >1 million customers and nearly 900,000 long-term service subscribers.
• Innovation leadership: Storage installation up 78% YoY, commanding first-mover advantage in battery adoption and grid services.
• Resilient asset base: Net assets of $6.8 billion including nearly $1 billion in cash.
• Scalable, recurring revenue stream: 20–25 year contracts lay the groundwork for sticky and predictable cash flows.
• Strong brand and trusted partner network: Underpins cross-selling, upsell opportunities and new market penetration.

Volume and Liquidity

Market Confidence Reflected in Trading Activity

• Robust daily volume in recent sessions suggests that the market is pricing a new equilibrium, with potential for technical mean-reversion.
• Public float of 205.81 million shares (90% of total outstanding) is conducive to efficient price discovery, allowing for nimble movements and dynamic valuation resets as sentiment turns.

This favourable liquidity, combined with elevated intraday trading, is often a hallmark of stocks poised for a re-rating once fundamental catalysts trigger momentum shifts.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Upcoming Triggers

• Guidance for annual cash generation of $200–500 million (2025): An inflection point for perception of financial self-sufficiency.
• Ongoing roll-out of grid services (virtual power plant programs with 80 MW capacity): Strategic alignment with utilities and grid operators unlocks premium revenue channels.
• Continued robust growth in storage deployment (+30% capacity projected by Q1 2025) meets rising customer demand for resiliency and time-of-use price arbitrage.
• Beneficiary of federal and state renewable tax credits, guaranteeing margin stability and a competitive advantage in scaling.
• Debt reduction and strengthened asset-backed funding position Sunrun favourably to absorb market volatility and invest in growth capex without dilutive equity raises.
• Market consensus “Moderate Buy” from major Wall Street analysts, with 12-month target set at $11.92–$15.33—representing upside potential of 70–123% from current levels.

Sector and ESG Tailwinds

• Demand for clean, decentralized energy is surging across OECD markets, with the US at the vanguard—particularly relevant for international investors seeking indirect, dollar-exposed energy transition plays.
• ESG mandates and corporate decarbonisation: Sunrun’s leadership in responsible, sustainable infrastructure makes it a natural beneficiary of large-scale institutional capital rotations.

Investment Strategies

Short- and Medium-Term Positioning

• Tactically, current levels near $6.75—close to multi-year support—offer a low-expectation entry point. Sentiment is washed out, while technical oscillators start to inflect positive.
• A short-term strategy could focus on a rebound towards the lower resistance of the $7.97 pivot, with stop-losses monitored below the $6.26 support band.

Long-Term Perspective

• For investors with a mid- to long-term horizon:
• The convergence of forecasted positive cash generation, record asset deployment, and the undeniable secular adoption of residential storage and solar present strong upside asymmetry.
• Potential for multiple expansion as profits normalize and Sunrun’s unique recurring customer model gains further market recognition.

Optimal allocations may skew towards staged, incremental entries to take advantage of possible additional downside volatility while retaining exposure to a likely sector-wide re-rating in the next 12–18 months.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Sunrun?

Summing up, Sunrun combines market-leading brand strength, rapid customer and storage growth, solidifying cash generation, and an exceptionally favourable regulatory and macroeconomic backdrop. While short-term volatility is acute, the company’s structural strengths—recurring revenue model, debt reduction, and undeniable innovation capability—are now reflected in a compellingly depressed valuation. With technical indicators turning positive and major fundamental catalysts front of mind, Sunrun stock seems to represent an excellent opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the US clean energy transformation in 2025.

In the context of a dynamic global energy transition, Sunrun stands out as a classic case of a market leader poised for a robust recovery and sustained value creation. Investors would do well to keep this stock firmly on their radar as its next bullish phase potentially unfolds.

How to buy Sunrun stock in New Zealand?

Buying Sunrun (RUN) shares online is both straightforward and secure for New Zealand investors, provided you use a regulated broker. There are two main ways to gain exposure: you can either buy actual Sunrun shares (“spot buying”) and become a direct shareholder, or you can trade Contracts for Difference (CFDs) to speculate on price movements without owning the underlying shares. Each approach offers benefits depending on your investing goals and risk profile. To help you choose the right platform and method, you’ll find a detailed comparison of leading brokers further down this page.

Spot buying

Spot buying means that you directly purchase Sunrun shares on the NASDAQ via a broker, becoming a part-owner in the company. For New Zealand-based investors, local and international brokers typically charge a fixed commission per trade, often around NZ$5–NZ$15 per order.

Important example

Example:
If the Sunrun share price is US$6.75 (about NZ$10.90) and you wish to invest NZ$1,000, accounting for a brokerage fee of NZ$10, you can acquire approximately 90 shares (NZ$990/NZ$10.90 = ~90.8).
✔️ Scenario if shares increase 10%: Your shares are now worth NZ$1,100.
Result: NZ$100 gross gain (+10%) on your investment, before currency and tax considerations.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading allows you to speculate on Sunrun’s share price without directly owning the shares. With CFDs, you can use leverage (borrowed funds) to amplify your market exposure. Instead of a fixed commission, typical costs include the spread (the difference between buy/sell prices) and overnight financing fees if you keep positions open for more than a day. CFDs are riskier but can magnify both gains and losses.

Important example

Example:
You open a CFD position on Sunrun with NZ$1,000 and apply 5x leverage, giving you exposure to NZ$5,000 worth of shares.
✔️ If Sunrun rises 8%, your gain is 8% x 5 = 40%.
Result: NZ$400 gain (excluding fees) on your initial NZ$1,000. Remember: losses can also be amplified in the same way.

Final advice

Before you start investing, it’s vital to compare the fees, trading conditions, and available products at different brokers. The right choice largely depends on your investment objectives: choose direct share ownership for long-term potential, or CFDs for short-term, speculative trades. To help you make an informed decision, check our comprehensive broker comparison further down this page. Invest wisely and always consider your risk tolerance.

Our 7 tips for buying Sunrun stock

The latest news about Sunrun

Sunrun significantly exceeded earnings expectations in Q4 2024, posting an adjusted EPS of $1.41 versus the -$0.27 consensus forecast. This exceptional bottom-line result was accompanied by a third consecutive quarter of positive cash generation ($34.2 million), suggesting operational improvements and better cost management. Although revenue marginally missed expectations, customer contract income rose 21% year-on-year, and storage deployments soared by 78%, underlining Sunrun's momentum in the highly competitive U.S. solar plus storage market. These robust fundamentals may reassure international investors, including those in New Zealand, who closely monitor financial resilience as a precursor to sustainable long-term growth.

Consensus analyst price targets for Sunrun indicate a potential upside of 70% to 123% from current trading levels. With the stock recently trading at $6.75 USD—near its 52-week lows but substantially below the average analyst target range of $11.92–$15.33—many reputable Wall Street institutions have maintained "Moderate Buy" ratings. This wide gap between market price and consensus targets signals strong recovery potential should Sunrun meet its 2025 cash flow guidance and maintain growth in solar and storage adoption. New Zealand-based investors, who often seek growth opportunities in global clean energy, may view this risk/reward asymmetry favorably, particularly as Sunrun's recurring revenue model aligns with long-term stability themes.

Technical signals suggest a near-term buy opportunity, with the MACD and Williams %R both reflecting bullish momentum. Despite all short- and medium-term moving averages still flagging ongoing price weakness, technical indicators as of May 29 point towards a possible reversal: the MACD is in positive territory (+0.12), and the Williams %R value of -91.65 historically triggers buy signals in oversold conditions. With relative strength (RSI) at 39.51, Sunrun appears neither drastically oversold nor overbought, offering tactical entry levels for institutional and sophisticated investors, including those in the NZ sector seeking global portfolio diversification.

Sunrun’s guidance reaffirms sustained positive cash generation for 2025, projecting $200–500 million in annual free cash flow. Management expects continued growth, especially in energy storage—forecasting Q1 2025 storage deployments to rise by 30% year-on-year—while solar installations remain broadly stable. Numerous virtual power plant (VPP) projects, critical to grid resilience and futureproofing, are getting scaled, with over 80 MW in instant capacity. These achievements, matched by more than $4 billion in fresh asset and tax equity financing raised in 2024 and the repayment of $132 million in recurring debt, reflect Sunrun’s ability to operate with financial flexibility. Such guidance may resonate with New Zealand market participants, who are increasingly attuned to companies delivering strong and predictable free cash flow in the renewables space.

Though Sunrun has no direct operational presence in New Zealand, its scalable model and leadership in U.S. distributed energy have strategic relevance for NZ’s energy transition. Sunrun’s trajectory—marked by expanding storage attachment rates (now 62%), robust customer growth, and increasing VPP deployments—mirrors themes present in New Zealand’s own distributed energy ambitions. As New Zealand pursues greater grid flexibility and renewable integration, Sunrun’s experience and business model provide illustrative benchmarks for local stakeholders, including utilities and policymakers. Therefore, even without direct market exposure, Sunrun’s innovations and performance trends are watched closely by New Zealand investors seeking global best practices and identifying potential future partners or acquisition targets in the context of accelerating the local energy transition.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.