Should I buy Valneva stock in 2025? Expert Analysis for NZ Investors

What is Valneva?

How much is the Valneva stock?

The price of Valneva stock is rising this week. As of today, the VLA share is trading at €2.85, posting a 24-hour gain of +€0.012 (+0.42%) and a weekly increase of 0.64%. Valneva currently reports a market capitalisation of €485 million, with an average 3-month daily volume of 1,115,923 shares.

The stock has no P/E ratio available at this time (loss-making), offers a 0% dividend yield, and shows a beta of 1.10, indicating slightly higher volatility than the broader market.

Despite recent fluctuations, analyst consensus points to a promising growth outlook which could interest dynamic Kiwi investors.

Our full analysis on the Valneva stock

Having reviewed Valneva’s latest financial results and examined the stock’s performance across the last three years, we’ve leveraged a multi-dimensional analytical approach—including quantitative financial indicators, technical chart signals, consensus market data, and benchmarking of peers—processed through our proprietary algorithms. The result is a thorough assessment of Valneva (Euronext Paris: VLA; NASDAQ: VALN), a unique player in the specialized vaccine sector. So, why might Valneva stock once again emerge as a strategic entry point into the rapidly evolving biotech arena in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Valneva’s current share price stands at €2.85 as of 30 May 2025, marking an intraday uptick of +0.42% and a weekly gain of +0.64%. Most impressively, over the past six months, the stock has soared by 54.47%, decisively outperforming both the broader European biotech index and many vaccine-focused peers. While the 12-month change still shows a contraction of -27%—mainly attributable to 2024’s risk-off sentiment in small-cap biotech—recent momentum underscores a dramatic turnaround.

• Lucrative New US Military Contract: In January 2025, Valneva secured a renewal of the IXIARO® contract with the US Department of Defense (~USD 33 million).
• Expanded Market Approvals: February brought EU regulatory approval expanding IXCHIQ® (chikungunya vaccine) to adolescents, followed by its landmark approval in Brazil—the first for an endemic market.
• Successful Fundraising: An April equity raise (€14.2M) via ATM, led by Novo Holdings, bolstered its balance sheet.
• Consistent Revenue Growth: Q1 2025 revenue surged by over 50% year-on-year, markedly above sector averages.

The macroeconomic backdrop for biotech in 2025 is strengthening. Major economies (including New Zealand’s trading partners) are ramping up public health and travel vaccination budgets post-pandemic, while supportive regulatory reforms and M&A activity are buoying the valuation of innovative, IP-rich biotech firms. Valneva, with its cross-Atlantic listings, is well-placed to benefit from both EU and US investor risk appetite returning to the healthcare innovation space.

Technical Analysis

• Moving Averages: The stock trades slightly below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (€2.97 and €3.14, respectively), yet remains comfortably above its 200-day moving average—a classic technical structure frequently preceding reversals in growth equities.
• Key Support Levels: There is robust support at €2.71; the current price consolidating above this threshold signals persistent underlying demand.
• Resistance and Upside: Immediate resistance is visible at €2.99. A clean breakout above this level, on volume, could pave the way for a rapid retest of the €3.50 level and possibly, based on previous technical patterns, the €4–€4.30 zone.
• Momentum Indicators: RSI and MACD indicators are stabilising just below neutral. This configuration is often interpreted as a “coiling spring,” suggesting the potential for renewed bullish momentum as fresh catalysts materialize.
• Analyst Targets: The consensus 12-month price target is a striking €6.86—141% upside from current levels—with some calls as high as €10. Coupled with a strong “BUY” consensus (6 analysts), the technical setup is increasingly constructive.

Fundamental Analysis

• Revenue Growth: Q1 2025 revenue came in at €49.2 million, up 50% year-on-year, driven primarily by product sales (+51%) across its flagship franchise—IXIARO®/JESPECT® for Japanese encephalitis and DUKORAL® for cholera/ETEC.
• Profitability Trajectory: While the company recorded a net loss for the quarter (€9.2M), this was substantially impacted by one-off gains in the previous year and robust investment in R&D. Notably, operational cash burn declined by 67% in 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA of €32.9 million—concrete evidence of disciplined financial management and cost containment.
• Balance Sheet Strength: Cash and equivalents stood at €153 million at the end of March 2025, providing ample runway to fund ongoing R&D and clinical programs.
• Valuation: Though Price/Earnings data is not meaningful at this stage (reflecting the sector norm for high-growth biotechs investing heavily in their pipelines), Price/Sales (2.27) and Price/Book (2.71) are attractive relative to global vaccine peers, supporting the investment case for a meaningful rerating potential once breakeven is reached.
• Structural Advantages: Valneva is the market leader in travel-related vaccines (tropical and emerging infectious diseases), the first to commercialise a vaccine against chikungunya, and operates a growing product pipeline with strategic partnerships (notably Pfizer for the Lyme vaccine). The company’s global reach helps insulate it from isolated regional demand shocks.

Volume and Liquidity

• Trading Volume: With a 3-month average volume near 1.1 million shares daily and frequent trading spikes post-catalyst news, the stock demonstrates compelling market depth—critical for institutional interest and dynamic valuation recalibration.
• Float Dynamics: A moderate market cap (~€485M) and relatively open float allow for efficient price discovery, reducing the risk of price manipulation while keeping the stock accessible for both retail and professional investors.
• Market Signals: Consistently high trading activity around news flow (clinical trial results, approvals) demonstrates sustained investor attention and confidence.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

• Late-Stage Pipeline Momentum:
• VLA15 for Lyme Disease: In partnership with Pfizer, Phase 3 topline results are expected by year-end. If successful, VLA15 could unlock an estimated $143M in milestone payments plus 14–22% royalties, targeting a multi-billion euro addressable market with scant competition.
• S4V2 (Shigella) and VLA1601 (Zika): Both vaccines represent major first-mover opportunities, with Phase 1/2 results expected before 2026, potentially broadening Valneva’s portfolio into additional lucrative infectious disease markets.
• New Regulatory Approvals: Expansion of label indications for IXCHIQ® in adolescents and authorisations in further endemic countries (beyond Brazil) are set to underpin double-digit revenue growth.
• Commercial Guidance: Management is forecasting full-year product sales of €170–180M for 2025, with an ambition to achieve positive cash flow from commercial operations—a tangible pivot towards sustainable profitability.
• ESG and Global Health: Growing emphasis on pandemic preparedness, travel, and tropical disease vaccines in public policy circles (notably in New Zealand and APAC), aligns directly with Valneva’s business model and may drive additional government/NGO procurement.

Investment Strategies

• Short-Term: Nimble traders may look to exploit technical setups—buying near key supports (€2.71–€2.85) with a view to momentum-driven rallies towards resistance levels and ahead of major data releases.
• Medium-Term: Investors anticipating Q3–Q4 pipeline news (especially the Lyme vaccine Phase 3 data) and new product launches may consider staggered entry on consolidative dips, eyeing a rerating in the 6–12 month window.
• Long-Term: For those building positions in cutting-edge healthcare innovators, Valneva’s deep pipeline (+ multiple shots-on-goal), improving financial foundation, and leadership in specialised vaccines offer exposure to a high-growth, high-impact segment of the biotech landscape. In a global context where travel, climate change, and emerging infections are priorities, Valneva’s relevance is likely to increase.

Entry at current valuations seems particularly attractive for medium- and long-term profiles, as the stock consolidates above key medium-term supports and ahead of transformational late-stage trial data.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Valneva?

Weighing the robust revenue growth, strong pipeline progression, improving cash dynamics, and broadening product approvals, Valneva stands out as a biotech whose fundamentals increasingly justify renewed investor interest. The share price, while recovering strongly, remains well off consensus analyst targets—creating a positive risk-reward skew uncommon in the sector at this advanced stage.

• Key Strengths Include:
• Revenue acceleration (+50% YoY) with cost containment
• Strategic pipeline and market-first vaccine assets
• Strong balance sheet and recent capital inflows
• Multiple imminent, high-impact clinical and regulatory catalysts
• Growing market reach in both developed and endemic regions

For NZ investors, Valneva’s dual listing, seasoned management, and specialised portfolio offer targeted exposure to global healthcare innovation—a sector set to benefit from persistent multiyear trends. While diligence around clinical and regulatory updates is prudent, the overwhelming consensus is positive, and current levels seem to represent an excellent opportunity to initiate or expand exposure ahead of expected 2025 inflection points.

In summary, as Valneva consolidates its lead in specialised vaccines and approaches multiple growth catalysts, the stock may well be entering a new bullish phase—one that calls for serious consideration from investors seeking both innovation and upside in the international biotech sector.

How to buy Valneva stock in New Zealand?

Buying Valneva stock online has never been more straightforward or secure for New Zealand investors. Through regulated online brokers, you can access global markets and purchase shares in just a few clicks, enjoying protection from regulatory oversight and modern digital safeguards. There are two main ways to invest: traditional spot buying (owning the actual shares), or trading using Contracts For Difference (CFDs), which allow leveraged speculation on price changes without direct ownership. Each method has its advantages and suits different investor profiles — you'll find a detailed broker comparison further down this page to help you choose.

Spot Buying

Cash purchase means you buy Valneva shares on the Euronext Paris (VLA) or NASDAQ (VALN) exchanges and become a direct shareholder. This method suits those aiming for long-term investment, as you own the shares outright and can hold them as long as you want. When buying through most New Zealand-friendly brokers, expect a fixed commission per order, usually from NZ$5 to NZ$15 depending on the platform.

Example

If Valneva is trading at €2.85 per share (approx. NZ$5.00 at current exchange rates), with a NZ$1,000 investment and a NZ$5 brokerage fee, you could buy around 199 shares: (NZ$1,000 - NZ$5 fee) ÷ NZ$5.00 = ~199 shares.

Gain scenario

If Valneva’s share price rises by 10%, your investment is now worth NZ$1,100.
Result: +NZ$100 gross gain, a 10% return on your NZ$1,000 investment (before taxes & exchange fees).

Trading via CFD

CFD trading lets you speculate on Valneva’s price movements without owning the underlying shares. With CFDs, you can use leverage — amplifying both potential gains and risks — and can trade rising (“long”) or falling (“short”) markets. Fees typically include a spread (the small difference between buy and sell prices), plus overnight financing if positions are held beyond each day.

Example

Suppose you stake NZ$1,000 on Valneva via a CFD with 5x leverage. This gives you exposure to NZ$5,000 worth of shares. If the stock rises by 8%, your position gains 8% x 5 = 40%.
Result: That’s a NZ$400 gain on your NZ$1,000 margin (excluding spreads and any ongoing overnight charges).

Final Advice

Before investing, it’s essential to check and compare broker commissions, currency conversion fees, platform features, and other terms — 'small' differences can impact your returns. Remember, spot buying is typically better suited for investors seeking direct ownership and long-term growth, while CFDs suit those comfortable with higher risk, leverage, and active trading. Your choice should reflect your investment goals and risk tolerance. For a detailed side-by-side broker comparison, see the table further down this page.

Our 7 tips for buying Valneva stock

The latest news about Valneva

Valneva delivered robust revenue growth of over 50% in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year. This performance, driven mainly by its travel vaccine portfolio including IXIARO®/JESPECT® (Japanese encephalitis) and DUKORAL® (Cholera/ETEC), underscores the company’s strong rebound and momentum. Of note for New Zealand investors, JESPECT®, the local market brand for IXIARO®, is distributed regionally and continues to be relevant for outbound travelers and vaccination requirements, supporting recurring demand in Oceania. The growth aligns with the global increase in international travel and rising focus on tropical disease prevention, which is mirrored in health and travel advisories in New Zealand.

Recent analyst consensus remains highly positive, with a 'Buy' rating and an average price target more than double the current share price. Six covering analysts have set a consensus 12-month target of €6.86 (+141%), with the most bullish estimates reaching €10.00. This reflects broad confidence in Valneva’s prospects and its unique standing in the specialty vaccine segment. The consistently optimistic analyst outlook is an encouraging signal for professional market participants in New Zealand, who often look to international consensus when evaluating biotech exposure.

Strategic partnerships, such as the ongoing Phase 3 program of the Lyme vaccine with Pfizer, are advancing as planned and may catalyze further growth in 2025. Interim results from this collaboration, anticipated by the end of 2025, could unlock milestone payments and royalties, with significant commercial implications if successful. The Lyme vaccine market is considered underserved, including regions with similar tick-borne disease profiles to New Zealand, where eventual product access could be strategically relevant, given the country’s active public health interest in emerging infectious disease protection.

Financial stability has improved significantly, marked by a €153 million cash position and a 67% reduction in operational cash burn year-on-year. This solid liquidity position supports ongoing R&D investments, planned at up to €100 million for 2025, and is particularly reassuring for international investors wary of funding risks in biotech. The recent ATM raise with Novo Holdings further strengthens Valneva’s balance sheet and underpins sustained pipeline development—a crucial consideration for value preservation and strategic resilience, especially for funds and institutions based in or exposed to the New Zealand market.

While precautionary guidance for IXCHIQ® (chikungunya vaccine) in seniors has been issued in the US and Europe, the company maintains a positive benefit-risk profile for the general population and continues to target wider market expansions. These regulatory actions are based on a small number of adverse events in those aged 65+, a demographic less central to the vaccine’s core target segment. New Zealand’s rigorous pharmacovigilance standards mirror these international precautions, but this does not currently affect access for other age groups or the prospect for regional approval, thereby containing potential negative impact and maintaining growth prospects in markets with similar regulatory environments.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.