Should I buy Caterpillar stock in 2025? Expert NZ Insights

What is the Caterpillar?

How much is the Caterpillar stock?

The price of Caterpillar stock is rising this week. The current share price stands at $351.79 USD, with a 24-hour increase of +0.66% (+$2.30) but showing a slight decrease of -1.91% over the past week. Caterpillar’s market capitalisation is now $165.45 billion, and the three-month average daily trading volume is 2.9 million shares. The stock has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 17.15, offers a dividend yield of 1.60%, and holds a beta of 1.35, indicating higher volatility than the overall market. While share movements have been brisk lately, Caterpillar’s global industrial profile may appeal to NZ investors seeking growth with an established brand despite short-term fluctuations.

Our full analysis of the Caterpillar stock

After a rigorous, data-driven assessment of Caterpillar Inc.'s (CAT) latest quarterly results and an in-depth review of the stock’s trajectory over the past three years, our proprietary analytic model synthesised signals from market data, performance indicators, technical trends, and competitive benchmarking. This holistic approach highlights Caterpillar's resilience and innovation amid macroeconomic headwinds and sector rotation. So, why might Caterpillar stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global industrials and infrastructure cycle in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Caterpillar’s share price currently stands at $351.79 (as of 29 May 2025), reflecting an increase of +0.66% on the day. Over the past year, the stock has delivered a positive total return of +4.05%, notwithstanding a recent six-month pullback of -13.38% that primarily mirrored cyclical sector volatility and global construction slowdowns. It is worth recognising that this recent softness comes after an extended rally during which CAT outperformed many industrial peers, underpinned by surging infrastructure investments and strong margin expansion.

Key recent developments further signal structural robustness:

• Leadership Transition: As of 1 May 2025, Joseph E. Creed has assumed the CEO role, while Jim Umpleby remains as Executive Chairman. This orderly succession ensures strategic continuity and is widely regarded as positive by both institutional and retail shareholders.
• Operational Stability: The headquarters relocation to Irving, Texas, continues to position Caterpillar advantageously for operational efficiency, tax optimisation, and talent attraction.
• Market Backdrop: Global infrastructure renewal, particularly across Asia-Pacific and North America, remains a critical macro tailwind. The company is well-positioned to benefit from resilient global demand for construction and mining equipment, especially as governments accelerate capex on critical infrastructure, renewable energy integration, and digital construction solutions.

Despite some cyclical pressures—such as softer Q1 numbers and sector rotation—Caterpillar has adeptly managed its margin profile and capital allocation, reinforcing its reputation as a “core holding” for exposure to the industrial supercycle.

Technical Analysis

Technically, Caterpillar exhibits telltale signs of preparatory strength:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 41.5, RSI points to neutral territory—meaning the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. Historically, these conditions have often preceded renewed institutional buying interest.
• MACD (12,26,9): The positive MACD signal at 0.92 suggests bullish momentum is potentially forming as downward pressure wanes.
• Key Support and Resistance: The primary technical support lies near $348.74, aligning with recent intraday lows—a level which coincides with institutional accumulation and has repeatedly proved resilient in past pullbacks. Above, the 52-week resistance at $418.50 frames an achievable technical upside if sector sentiment rebounds.
• Moving Averages: While CAT is trading below its recent six-month average due to the temporary pullback, the longer-term trend remains upward, and price clustering near support often precedes a constructive reversal.
• Momentum Structure: Short-to-medium term structure suggests the pullback is maturing and a “base-building” phase is underway, providing attractive risk/reward for new positioning.

These technicals collectively indicate that Caterpillar may be approaching a cyclical inflection point, with technical indicators building a foundation for renewed bullish flows, particularly if upcoming macro or earnings catalysts align favourably.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamentally, Caterpillar’s credentials remain notably compelling:

• Revenue and Earnings: Despite a 10% YoY decline in Q1 2025 revenue ($14.2B), management's disciplined cost controls supported an adjusted EPS of $4.25—just below consensus ($4.30), but maintaining sector-leading profitability amid macro uncertainty. Analyst forecasts peg fiscal 2025 revenues at $62.5B, underlining robust medium-term growth expectations on the back of megaproject momentum and sector outperformance.
• Profitability Profile: Margins remain sector-leading, with a 15.71% profit margin, an impressive ROA of 9.40%, and a standout ROE at 55.65%. Such profitability metrics highlight Caterpillar’s ability to generate strong returns in both expansionary and contractionary cycles.
• Valuation: At a Price/Earnings of 17.15 and Price/Sales of 2.69, CAT trades at a discount to many capital goods peers, especially considering its dominant market share and dividend reliability (current yield: 1.60%). With an enterprise value/revenue of 3.17 and a high-quality balance sheet, the current valuation appears undemanding for a global leader of this calibre.
• Strategic Advantages: Caterpillar’s historic leadership in construction and mining equipment is complemented by relentless investment in digitalisation and automation, boosting its competitive moat. Its strategic focus on autonomous and “smart” machinery, as well as its exposure to next-generation sustainable infrastructure, provides a compelling edge over legacy competitors.

From a fundamental standpoint, the combination of resilient earnings power, disciplined capital management, and durable competitive advantages justifies renewed investor focus at current price levels.

Volume and Liquidity

• Liquidity: Average daily volume remains healthy at 2.9M shares (65-day average), reflecting robust institutional and retail participation and providing ample liquidity for varied strategies and position sizes.
• Free Float: With a public float of 469.29M shares, investor access and price discovery are highly efficient, contributing to dynamic, market-driven valuation. This liquidity further reduces execution risk for both NZ-based and international investors.

Such liquidity metrics signal continued market confidence and make Caterpillar an attractive candidate for both tactical trading and longer-term allocation.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several tangible catalysts underpin Caterpillar’s positive outlook for 2025 and beyond:

• Mega-Infrastructure Spending: Record government and private investment in infrastructure across the US, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific should directly fuel equipment demand.
• Energy Transition: Caterpillar’s expanding portfolio in renewable energy and grid transition solutions for heavy equipment places it at the heart of a critical global megatrend.
• Digital and Autonomous Leadership: Ongoing advances in digital construction solutions and autonomous machinery continue to unlock new revenue streams, improve customer stickiness, and drive operational leverage.
• Emerging Markets Expansion: Penetration into high-growth emerging markets remains a potent growth lever, enabling de-risking from single-region exposures.
• ESG Initiatives: Accelerating ESG and sustainability programs not only answer to regulatory pressures but are likely to unlock competitive procurement advantages in an increasingly green economy.
• Capital Allocation: With $6.82B in free cash flow and a rational dividend plus buyback program, capital is being strategically redeployed for innovation, bolt-on acquisitions, and shareholder return optimization.

The consensus analyst price target of $368 (with a high-end range up to $425) underscores the market’s confidence in upcoming positive inflections.

Investment Strategies

Caterpillar’s current technical and fundamental setup allows for multiple entry strategies, each supported by recent developments and macro context:

• Short-Term: Positioning at/near the $348.74 support zone offers a favourable risk/reward profile, especially for investors anticipating a technical bounce or short-term sector rotation into industrials.
• Medium-Term: As the company moves through leadership transition and benefits from upcoming infrastructure funding announcements, positioning ahead of expected order acceleration and Q2 results seems prudent.
• Long-Term: For portfolios seeking exposure to the global infrastructure, renewables, and digital automation cycle, CAT stands out as a strategic core holding. The company’s robust capital return policy, strong brand equity, and technology leadership support a constructive outlook well beyond the current year.

In all time frames, the current valuation and technical positioning create a compelling set-up for either initial entry or incremental accumulation, with limited downside risk at support and clear upside catalysts.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Caterpillar?

Caterpillar’s unique combination of durable earnings power, proven adaptability, and innovation pipelines positions it as a prime beneficiary of the ongoing global infrastructure and energy transformation. The transition to a new CEO has been orderly, and financial metrics continue to support high confidence, even despite temporary revenue softness. Strong technical support, attractive valuation relative to industry peers, high liquidity, and a visible pipeline of catalysts—ranging from digital innovation to emerging market expansion—collectively suggest that Caterpillar may be entering a new bullish phase, well-suited to forward-thinking NZ investors seeking robust global exposure.

Ultimately, CAT appears to represent an excellent opportunity for those aiming to participate in the next wave of industrial growth and transformative infrastructure development worldwide. With firm technical underpinnings and a narrative supported by tangible macro and strategic advantages, Caterpillar deserves renewed close attention as a candidate to drive portfolio performance through 2025 and beyond. For investors ready to ride structural trends in infrastructure and technology-enabled industrials, Caterpillar’s present phase could well be the inflection point that rewards timely, well-informed conviction.

How to buy Caterpillar stock in New Zealand?

Buying Caterpillar (CAT) stock online has never been easier or more secure for investors based in New Zealand. Leading online brokers, regulated by top financial authorities, offer simple digital platforms where you can invest in Caterpillar shares in just a few clicks. The two main methods to invest are straightforward: you can buy CAT stock “in cash” (spot buying) to own the shares outright, or opt for Contracts for Difference (CFDs) to trade on price movements with leverage. Not sure which is right for you? We compare brokers and their NZD fees further down the page.

Spot buying

When you buy Caterpillar shares in cash, you own the actual stock, which means rights to any dividends and the potential for long-term growth. Most New Zealand retail brokers charge a fixed commission per order—typically NZ$5 to NZ$15 for US shares purchased via NYSE.

Example

Suppose Caterpillar trades at US$351.79 per share (≈NZ$570 at an exchange rate of 0.617). With a NZ$1,000 investment and a NZ$10 brokerage fee, you could buy about 1.7 CAT shares (NZ$990 divided by NZ$570 = ~1.7 shares).

Gain scenario:
If the CAT share price rises by 10%, your investment is now worth about NZ$1,100.
Result: you’ve made a +NZ$100 gross gain, or +10% on your investment.

Trading via CFD

CFD (Contract for Difference) trading allows you to speculate on Caterpillar’s stock price without owning the real shares. CFDs are leveraged products: you put down a fraction of the total value, but your gains or losses are amplified. Fees include a spread (the broker’s margin between buy and sell prices) and overnight financing if you keep your position open for multiple days.

Example

If you open a CFD trade on CAT with NZ$1,000 and 5x leverage, your exposure is NZ$5,000.

Gain scenario:
If the CAT stock rises by 8%, you earn 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: your position increases by NZ$400 (excluding fees), turning NZ$1,000 into NZ$1,400.

Final advice

Before investing, always compare brokers’ fees (commissions, spreads, currency conversions, and funding rates) and check their regulatory status. Your choice between buying shares in cash or trading via CFDs should reflect your investment objectives: long-term ownership and dividends, or short-term trading with leverage. Find a detailed broker comparator further down this page to help you choose with confidence.

Our 7 tips for buying Caterpillar stock

The latest news about Caterpillar

Caterpillar’s CEO transition completed smoothly with Joseph E. Creed officially assuming leadership in May 2025. This change has been described by reputable sources as well-organized and has instilled confidence in stakeholders, with the former CEO Jim Umpleby transitioning to Executive Chairman. Market reactions to the leadership shift have remained measured and positive, reflecting the company’s stable governance. This is particularly relevant for institutional investors and financial analysts in New Zealand, as stability in executive management reduces global operational risk for investors exposed to the stock via international funds or local NZX-listed vehicles.

Caterpillar continues its strategic expansion into autonomous and digital heavy equipment, increasing its relevance in developed Asia-Pacific infrastructure projects. The latest company communications highlight a firm focus on smart machinery and digital solutions—areas of interest in New Zealand, given the country’s ongoing investment in resilient infrastructure and government push for technologically advanced construction. Caterpillar’s leadership in mining and construction equipment is supported by local partnerships, long-standing presence via authorized dealers, and engagement with major NZ infrastructure projects, which collectively reinforce its regional competitive positioning.

Consensus analyst sentiment has shifted to neutral-to-positive, reflecting resilience amid weaker Q1 revenue and reaffirmed long-term growth forecasts. Although Caterpillar’s first quarter of 2025 saw revenue fall 10% year-on-year, analysts have maintained a consensus price target above current levels at $368.00, with a positive MACD indicator signaling technical upside. Projected 2025 revenues of $62.5 billion confirm expectations of recovery, and the company’s strong brand, high ROE (55.65%), and historical outperformance during infrastructure cycles support constructive outlooks—an important consideration for New Zealand investors seeking long-term growth exposure in global industrials.

Caterpillar’s direct and indirect presence in New Zealand remains robust, reinforcing local relevance and distributor confidence. Official company and industry reports confirm ongoing support for NZ construction, agriculture, and mining via established dealership networks and service centers throughout the country. Continued product innovation, coupled with a reliable parts and service infrastructure, helps New Zealand operators maintain productivity amid global supply chain volatility, deepening customer stickiness and ensuring that distributed products remain at the forefront of industry adoption.

Recent market signals: the MACD shows a positive pattern and the RSI remains neutral, indicating stability and potential for upside. As of 29 May 2025, Caterpillar’s technical indicators show a neutral Relative Strength Index (41.5) and a positive MACD (0.92), which together suggest the stock is neither overbought nor oversold and may be poised for gains. For New Zealand analysts and investors, these signals, alongside a solid dividend yield (1.6%) and robust cash flow, suggest an attractive ongoing risk-reward profile, positioning Caterpillar as a core global industrial holding for diversified portfolios.

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P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.