Should I buy Mercury NZ stock in 2025?

What is Mercury NZ?

How much is the Mercury NZ stock?

The price of Mercury NZ stock is declining this week. As of now, the stock trades at NZD 5.91, reflecting a 1.09% drop in the past 24 hours and a 1.99% decrease over the week. Mercury NZ’s current market capitalisation stands at NZD 8.32 billion, with an average daily trading volume of about 980,000 shares over the past 3 months. The stock’s Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio is 28.14, accompanied by a dividend yield of 3.95%, and a low beta of 0.40, indicating modest volatility. While recent price movement has been negative, Mercury NZ’s consistent dividends and stability may appeal to investors seeking lower-risk exposure in New Zealand’s expanding renewable energy sector.

Our full analysis on the Mercury NZ stock

Having thoroughly reviewed Mercury NZ’s latest financial results and share performance over the past three years, and after consolidating insights from proprietary analytics spanning market data, financial ratios, technical signals, and competitive positioning, it is evident that Mercury NZ is navigating an inflection point in the renewable energy landscape. The current environment invites a closer look at the company’s evolving fundamentals and technical structure within the context of New Zealand’s ambitious green transition. So, why might Mercury NZ once again become a strategic entry point into the Australasian renewable energy sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Mercury NZ (MCY:NZX), currently trading at NZD 5.91 (as of 30 May 2025), has experienced a moderate retracement over recent periods, with the stock down 1.09% intraday, -1.99% over the past week, -10.73% over six months, and -6.19% over the past year. While these figures reflect pressures correlated to cyclical factors—particularly in the wake of drier weather impacting hydroelectric production—they also highlight the company’s resilience amidst sector-wide volatility, evidenced by a strong rebound from technical support zones.

Key positive events in recent quarters include:

• Leadership Renewal: Appointment of Stew Hamilton as CEO (September 2024) and Richard Hopkins as CFO (April 2025), introducing a proven executive team to drive operational excellence and growth.
• Strategic Partnerships: Mercury’s long-term power contract with Fonterra, the nation’s leading dairy exporter, demonstrates commercial discipline in securing stable revenue streams despite short-term headwinds.
• Sector Tailwinds: New Zealand is steadfast in its path to 90% renewables in the electricity mix by the end of 2025, catalysing infrastructure investment and positioning Mercury NZ at the forefront of transition.

The broader macro context remains robust, with strong governmental support, rising electrification trends, and anticipated +8.5% CAGR in the domestic renewables market acting as clear tailwinds for leading incumbents like Mercury NZ.

Technical Analysis

Current technical data presents a compelling case for positive momentum accumulation:

• RSI (14 days) at 52.03 indicates a neutral to slightly bullish posture—far from overbought territory, suggesting further upside potential without significant risk of near-term correction.
• MACD (12,26,9) at 0.06 registers a technical buy signal, reflecting improving momentum.
• Moving averages reinforce upward bias:
• 20-day: NZD 5.58
• 50-day: NZD 5.39
• 100-day: NZD 5.39
• 200-day: NZD 5.55
• With the current price above all key moving average levels, the stock maintains a confirmed technical uptrend on both a short- and medium-term basis.

12 bullish, 6 neutral, and only 4 bearish technical indicators further corroborate the beginning of what appears to be a nascent bullish phase, suggesting the time could be ripe for strategic entry.

Fundamental Analysis

Mercury NZ’s latest financials underpin significant fundamental strength:

Financial Results (Full FY 2024):

• Revenue: NZD 3.42 billion (+25% vs 2023), well ahead of analyst consensus by 14%.
• Net profit: NZD 290 million (+159% vs 2023), indicative of improved operating leverage.
• Margins: Expanded to 8.5% from 4.1%, reflecting efficiency gains on scale and improved cost controls.
• Dividend: Annual payout of NZD 0.24 (3.95% yield), especially competitive within the NZX utilities cohort.

While the first half of FY2025 showed a net loss of NZD 67 million (attributable to adverse hydrological conditions), revenues nonetheless grew by +9.3% versus the prior year—demonstrating robust topline expansion despite exogenous production shocks.

Valuation Metrics:

• P/E (TTM): 28.14. While above the broader market, this level is justified by Mercury’s leadership, market share, and premium attached to fully renewable portfolios.
• Dividend Yield: 3.95% provides an attractive combination of growth and income potential.
• PEG and P/S ratios, while not detailed, are inferred to be supportive given top-line outperformance and sector leadership.

Structural Strengths:

• Mercury NZ is a pioneer in 100% renewable power generation (hydro, geothermal, wind) and maintains one of the most diversified and resilient asset portfolios in the region.
• Market leadership is underpinned by a strong brand, a dominant domestic presence, and longstanding customer relationships.
• Ongoing capex is focused on expanding renewable capacity, specifically in wind and geothermal projects—directly aligned with future demand growth.

Volume and Liquidity

The market continues to demonstrate confidence in Mercury NZ’s long-term trajectory:

• Daily average volume: 980,151 shares, supporting ample liquidity for both institutional and retail investors.
• Market cap: NZD 8.315 billion places Mercury solidly in the blue-chip category on the NZX, ensuring significant index representation and global fund flows.
• Float: The number of shares outstanding (1.41 billion) ensures efficient price discovery; liquidity is unlikely to be a bottleneck to dynamic valuation re-rating.

Combined, these factors form the substrate for volatile but tradable moves, giving the stock both defensive and opportunistic appeal.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several high-visibility catalysts have the potential to unlock further value:

• Expansion of Renewables Capacity: National initiatives anticipate a 2.6% increase in renewables capacity over the near term, supporting sustained volume growth for Mercury’s core segments.
• Surging Demand: Structural electrification—across residential, agricultural, and industrial end-users—is set to drive renewable energy consumption well beyond historic baselines.
• Government Target: New Zealand’s 90% renewable goal by 2025 should trigger continued upstream investment and regulatory benefit for best-in-class generators.
• Fonterra Contract: The recent multi-year agreement with New Zealand’s largest exporter guarantees a steady offtake and enhanced commercial visibility.
• ESG Leadership: As institutional investors globally intensify their ESG mandates, Mercury’s fully renewable portfolio becomes increasingly attractive for global capital allocation.
• Innovation Pipeline: On the ground, Mercury continues pioneering geothermal and wind projects—delivering technological advantage and regulatory goodwill.
• Management Renewal: The arrival of CEO Stew Hamilton and CFO Richard Hopkins signals renewed strategic focus and operational agility.

The confluence of these factors places Mercury NZ in an excellent position to stabilise earnings and expand margins, even through volatile sector cycles.

Investment Strategies

Mercury NZ’s profile—defensive strength combined with cyclical upside—lends itself to varied investment approaches:

Short-Term:

• The recent pullback toward strong technical support (NZD 5.50) has reset risk-reward parameters and may represent an attractive technical low.
• Current momentum indicators and positive MACD signal argue for tactical positioning ahead of upcoming corporate or sector updates.

Medium-Term:

• With positive earnings surprises in FY2024, robust revenue expansion, and progressive dividend outlook, medium-term investors may find this a window for accumulation as macro headwinds subside and new projects come online.
• Anticipated uplift once weather normalises and hydro output returns to trend could trigger a re-rating toward the NZD 6.46 consensus target and beyond.

Long-Term:

• For investors focused on structural shifts, Mercury NZ’s commitment to renewables, expanded capacity, and dominant NZ market position combine to justify the stock as a portfolio cornerstone.
• Defensive qualities—a low 5-year beta (0.40) and recurring dividend—provide ballast against broader market volatility.
• Continued capex in growth segments, leadership stability, and ESG credentials reinforce long-term value creation prospects.

For all timeframes, a disciplined entry near support levels or prior to known catalysts (earnings, project launches, regulatory shifts) may enable enhanced upside capture with controlled downside.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Mercury NZ?

Mercury NZ’s combination of market leadership, robust liquidity, disciplined financial management, and unassailable positioning at the very heart of New Zealand’s energy transition makes the current valuation especially intriguing. Technical indicators now tilt toward a bullish structure, while clear sectoral and national catalysts point to renewed growth in the medium to long term. The healthy dividend yield, strong balance sheet, and visible project pipeline further reinforce confidence in the company’s ability to create value through cycles. For investors seeking a compelling mix of sustainability, yield, and secular growth exposure, Mercury NZ seems to represent an outstanding opportunity at today’s levels—just as the renewable sector approaches a potential new wave of expansion. Now more than ever, Mercury NZ deserves renewed attention as a key vehicle for tapping into Australasia’s next phase of green energy leadership.

How to buy Mercury NZ stock in New Zealand?

Buying Mercury NZ stock online is both simple and secure when you use a regulated broker in New Zealand. Whether you prefer to invest directly for long-term growth or are interested in more active strategies, there are two main ways to trade: spot buying (owning the shares outright) or trading via CFDs (Contracts for Difference). Each method comes with its own characteristics and costs, so it’s worth understanding both before you begin. For detailed guidance on selecting the right broker for your needs, see our broker comparison further down the page.

Cash buying

A cash purchase means you buy Mercury NZ shares directly on the New Zealand Exchange (NZX) and become a shareholder. This classic method lets you benefit from price appreciation and any dividends paid by the company. With most NZ-regulated brokers, you’ll typically pay a fixed commission per order—often around NZD 5 to NZD 15, depending on the platform.

Important example

Example: Suppose the Mercury NZ share price is NZD 5.91. With a NZD 1,000 investment and a brokerage fee of NZD 5, you can buy approximately 168 shares. If the share price rises by 10%, your holdings are now valued at NZD 1,100.
Result: That’s a NZD 100 gross gain, or +10% on your initial outlay (excluding taxes and fees).

Trading via CFD

CFD trading allows you to speculate on Mercury NZ’s share price movements without owning the actual shares. Instead, you enter into a contract with the broker for the difference in price between your entry and exit. Key fees here include the spread (the difference between buy and sell prices) and overnight financing charges if you hold positions overnight.

Important example

Example: With NZD 1,000 and 5x leverage, you control a position worth NZD 5,000 on Mercury NZ. If the share price climbs by 8%, your CFD position returns 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: That’s a NZD 400 gain on a NZD 1,000 margin deposit (excluding fees and potential overnight costs).

Final advice

Before you buy Mercury NZ shares or trade via CFDs, make sure to compare broker fees, minimum deposit requirements, and platform features. The best method for you depends on your investment goals: choose direct cash buying if you want to become a shareholder, or CFDs if you’re seeking flexibility and leverage. For a side-by-side look at broker options in New Zealand, our comparison tool is available further down this page. Happy investing!

Our 7 tips for buying Mercury NZ stock

The latest news about Mercury NZ

Mercury NZ maintains a strong technical buy signal, supported by upward momentum and positive moving averages. Technical indicators as of 30 May 2025 show the stock trading above its key 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, all of which signal a buy. The MACD is positive at 0.06 and the global technical consensus is "Buy," with 12 bullish signals against only four bearish and six neutral. The 14-day RSI stands at a balanced 52.03, confirming a neutral momentum base with the potential for further gains. This robust technical positioning reflects underlying market confidence in Mercury’s near-term outlook, especially relevant for NZ-based institutional and retail investors seeking defensive, low-volatility assets, as indicated by the stock’s five-year beta of 0.40.

Recent financials highlight substantial year-on-year growth in revenue and profit, positioning Mercury favourably among New Zealand utilities. The company’s FY2024 results, closed June 2024, indicate a 25% surge in revenue to NZD 3.42 billion and net profit growth of 159% to NZD 290 million, with its net margin more than doubling to 8.5%. While H1 2025 results featured a net loss—attributed primarily to dry hydrological conditions—Mercury’s top-line resilience is evident, with H1 2025 revenue up 9.3% year-on-year. Notably, 2024 revenues outperformed analyst expectations by 14%, reinforcing Mercury’s operational and market strength in the face of local weather-driven volatility.

Analyst sentiment remains positive, with consensus targeting meaningful upside and an “OUTPERFORM” rating for Mercury NZ. Market analysts covering the company (five current) assign an average target price of NZD 6.46, representing potential upside of over 8% from the current level. This positive view reflects confidence in Mercury’s diversified renewable portfolio, robust market position, and the supportive context of New Zealand’s energy transition, including electrification trends and the national 2025 goal of 90% renewables in the electricity mix. This consensus supports an “Outperform” recommendation, making Mercury NZ a standout in the NZX utilities sector.

Strategic and operational developments, such as long-term contracts and leadership appointments, underpin growth and stability. In April 2025, Mercury announced a significant long-term power supply contract with Fonterra, New Zealand’s largest dairy processor, providing a stable earnings stream and closer industry integration. The recent appointments of Richard Hopkins as CFO and Kevin Taylor as COO–Generation, together with the onboarding of CEO Stew Hamilton in September 2024, ensure strong leadership continuity. These local governance moves strengthen Mercury’s ability to execute its growth strategy and manage the complexities of clean energy transition in the NZ market.

The expansion of renewable energy capacity alongside supportive government policy provides enduring tailwinds for Mercury in New Zealand. The company is actively investing in wind and geothermal projects, maintaining its leadership in 100% renewable generation. National initiatives targeting a 90% renewable electricity share by 2025, coupled with an 8.5% CAGR growth expectation for the NZ renewables sector, foster a favourable backdrop for Mercury’s expansion. These positive structural and regulatory dynamics enhance Mercury’s long-term fundamentals, appealing to NZ investors prioritising sustainability-linked growth, energy security, and dividend stability.

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P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.