Should I buy Phillips 66 stock in 2025? An NZ Perspective

What is Phillips 66?

How much is the Phillips 66 stock?

The price of Phillips 66 stock is rising this week. Phillips 66 (PSX) is currently trading at USD 114.68, up 1.91 USD (+1.69%) over the past 24 hours and showing a modest gain for the week. The company's market capitalisation stands at USD 45.95 billion, with a 3-month average daily volume of around 3.2 million shares. The stock features a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.80, a robust dividend yield of 4.24%, and a beta of 0.92, offering investors balanced exposure to the US energy sector. While recent performance has been mixed, the moderate beta suggests less volatility than the broader market, making PSX an appealing option for NZ investors seeking income and sector diversification.

Our full analysis of the Phillips 66 stock

After a rigorous review of Phillips 66's latest quarterly performance, together with an in-depth assessment of the share’s track record over the past three years, our proprietary analytical models—drawing on financial, technical, and market datasets—have produced a compelling picture of this US energy leader’s prospects. Combining fundamental strength with notable sectoral shifts and peer benchmarking, our findings suggest the company may be at an inflection point. So, why might Phillips 66 stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global energy sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) trades currently at USD 114.68, posting a daily gain of +1.69% and consolidating near the mid-range of its 52-week interval (USD 91.01–150.12). Over a three-year horizon, the stock has demonstrated robust resilience, notably outperforming many refining peers during periods of energy sector volatility. Importantly, Phillips 66 has displayed reliable dividend growth, a signal of management’s commitment to shareholder value even amid turbulent commodity cycles.

Market sentiment has recently shifted towards constructive territory, underpinned by Phillips 66’s operational discipline: a 15% reduction in controllable refining costs since 2022, and successful delivery of USD 1.24 billion in cost and sustaining capital savings over the past 12 months. Strategic initiatives, such as the Rodeo Renewable Energy Complex launch in Q1 2024, signal decisive progress in energy transition efforts without compromising core profitability.

On the macro level, the energy sector is benefiting from a stabilisation of oil prices, healthy global demand, and growing premiums for US refiners given evolving fuel specifications in North America and Asia-Pacific, markets keenly watched by New Zealand investors for their linkage to regional energy pricing and trade flows.

Technical Analysis

Examining technical indicators, Phillips 66 is currently trading above both its short-term (20-day: USD 114.54) and intermediate (50-day: USD 111.57) moving averages—classic buy signals suggesting the emergence of positive short-term momentum. While the 100-day (USD 117.27) and 200-day (USD 123.07) moving averages still sit above the spot price, this technical structure often presages a period of mean reversion to higher levels, especially when accompanied by rising volume.

• RSI (14 days): 51.82, indicating a neutral stance and headroom for further upside before approaching overbought conditions.
• MACD (12,26,9): Slightly negative (-1.49), evidence that the recent consolidation phase could be resolving as positive momentum emerges.

Key support is identified at USD 110.94, aligning with the 50-day moving average—a reliable floor for traders and investors seeking lower-volatility entries. Resistance is expected at USD 117.29 (recent local highs and short-term average), a potential bullish breakout level.

In sum, the technical context demonstrates an increasingly favourable structure for medium-term appreciation as the stock forms a base near support, inviting renewed institutional accumulation.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamentals firmly underwrite the technical setup. Despite reporting a YoY drop in 2024 EBITDA to USD 4.2 billion (reflecting wider sector cyclicality), Phillips 66 showed impressive resilience: Q3 2024 adjusted EPS of USD 2.04 notably outpaced analyst consensus (USD 1.63), highlighting operational flexibility in a competitive environment.

Management’s proactive approach is worth highlighting:

• Dividend Growth: The company declared a quarterly dividend increase to USD 1.20—yielding a compelling 4.24% at current prices, further strengthened by a 15% CAGR in dividend distributions since 2022.
• Return of Capital: Over USD 14 billion returned to shareholders through buybacks/dividends in less than 3 years, demonstrating a commitment to capital discipline.
• Efficiency: Sustainable 15% reduction in refining costs since 2022.
• Asset Transition: Pilot conversion of the Rodeo facility to a renewable energy complex positions Phillips 66 as a leader amongst US refiners navigating the energy transition.

From a valuation perspective, the stock’s P/E ratio of 25.8 must be analysed in the context of sector peers, many of whom command premium multiples without similar operational or dividend credentials. The forward-looking price target of USD 139.77 (+23.5% upside) appears justified by these combined competitive advantages, especially as the company’s integrated downstream model and strategic US presence offer persistent margin resilience.

Brand strength, geographic reach, and a diversified portfolio (spanning refining, midstream, and chemicals) add further defensiveness—qualities attractive to investors seeking stable cash flows and sector leadership.

Volume and Liquidity

Phillips 66 enjoys high liquidity, with a free float of over 406 million shares and a market capitalisation of nearly USD 46 billion. Trading multiples remain robust, demonstrating sustained institutional and retail interest through varying market conditions.

Such liquidity supports fair price discovery and dynamic valuation shifts, ensuring efficient entries and exits for both NZ institutional participants and retail investors considering exposure to large-cap US equities. Elevated trading volume during key earnings releases and corporate actions underscores prevailing market confidence in the company’s policy and trajectory.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several upcoming and ongoing developments may serve as potent catalysts to drive further value:

• Strategic Energy Transition: The commencement of the Rodeo Renewable Energy Complex signals Phillips 66’s front-footed approach to low-carbon fuel production, aligning operations with both US regulatory momentum and global decarbonisation trends observed in Australasia.
• Dividend Visibility: The clear trajectory of dividend increases not only attracts yield-oriented buyers but also signals management’s operational confidence.
• Operational Efficiencies: Realisation of significant cost savings enhances margin flexibility and potential for profit recovery as refining markets tighten.
• Potential for Further Capital Returns: Ample balance sheet capacity and a proven track record suggest scope for additional buybacks or special dividends.
• Improvement in Market Backdrop: Projected rebounds in refining margins, ongoing tightness in global product supply, and steady demand from Asian importers all underpin the context for margin expansion.

The current sentiment, neutral but with a tilt towards optimism reflected in a consensus target price well above current levels, points to further upside as macro refiners’ cycles turn favourable in late 2025.

Investment Strategies

Given the technical and fundamental configuration, several entry strategies could be considered for different horizons:

• Short-Term: For nimble investors, accumulating near the USD 110.94 support zone—coinciding with the 50-day moving average—appears strategic, with upside to the next resistance cluster (USD 117–123).
• Medium-Term: Await a confirmation of breakout above the USD 117.29 resistance, which, if accompanied by above-average volume, may trigger a run towards the technical and consensus price targets.
• Long-Term: For income-oriented and structurally bullish investors, the present yield (4.24%) and consistently rising dividends justify considering the current range as a compelling point to build or add to core positions—particularly given Phillips 66’s leadership in energy transition initiatives and demonstrated cost discipline.

In all cases, the stock’s comparatively low beta (0.92) moderates volatility relative to broader markets, appealing to those seeking a more defensive energy holding without forgoing growth.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Phillips 66?

Summing up, Phillips 66 currently combines sector-leading operational resilience, attractive and growing dividends, a visible commitment to sustainability, and proven capital return discipline—all supported by robust technical structures and market confidence.

With catalysts ranging from major renewable initiatives to significant operational efficiencies, and a track record of consistent shareholder returns, the stock seems to represent an excellent opportunity to gain exposure to a transforming global energy landscape from a position of relative strength.

As the refining cycle turns and the market increasingly recognises the value inherent in integrated, adaptable energy businesses, Phillips 66 appears poised for a renewed bullish phase—making now an opportune moment for NZ investors to give this US giant serious consideration.

For those seeking a blend of yield, growth, and the upside from sectoral evolution, Phillips 66 may indeed be entering a new era of outperformance within global energy equity portfolios. The share’s unique combination of technical, fundamental, and strategic advantages suggests that its story in 2025 and beyond is one of resilience, evolution, and latent value just starting to resurface.

How to buy Phillips 66 stock in New Zealand?

Buying Phillips 66 (PSX) stock online is both simple and secure for New Zealand investors, thanks to the many regulated brokers that provide access to the US markets. You can choose to buy shares outright (“spot buying”) or trade via CFDs (Contracts for Difference), each method suiting a different investment style and risk profile. Spot buying gives you direct ownership of shares, while CFDs enable leveraged trading on price movements without owning the stock itself. We’ll walk you through both approaches below, along with a comparison of leading brokers further down the page.

Spot Buying

A cash (spot) purchase of Phillips 66 shares means buying the underlying stock directly through your broker. In New Zealand, this usually involves a fixed commission per order—typically between NZ$5 and NZ$15, depending on the broker. For example, with the current Phillips 66 price at USD 114.68 (about NZ$187.60 at NZD/USD 0.61), a NZ$1,000 investment (before fees) allows you to purchase approximately 5 shares (as 1 share ≈ NZ$187.60). Factoring in a NZ$5 brokerage fee, your stake slightly decreases, but the calculation remains simple.

Gain scenario

If Phillips 66 rises by 10%, your shares become worth NZ$1,100 (10% higher), delivering a gross gain of NZ$100—reflecting a +10% return on your original investment (excluding fees and FX effects).

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) let you speculate on Phillips 66’s price moves without actually owning the shares. This approach is popular among active traders, as it offers leverage—meaning you can access a larger position with less capital. However, CFDs come with fees: you’ll pay a spread (the difference between buy and sell prices) and, if you hold a position overnight, a daily financing charge.

Example

You invest NZ$1,000 in a CFD on Phillips 66, using 5x leverage. That means you control a position worth NZ$5,000. If the stock price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% x 5 = 40%, so you realise a NZ$400 profit on your NZ$1,000 stake (before fees).

Final Advice

Before investing, always compare brokers’ fees, platforms, and trading conditions—even small differences can impact your returns. Ultimately, choosing between cash share purchases and CFDs depends on your objectives: long-term investors may prefer direct ownership for potential dividends and capital growth, while active traders might favour the flexibility of CFDs. To help you decide, see our NZ broker comparison tool further down the page.

Our 7 tips for buying the Phillips 66 stock

The latest news about Phillips 66

Phillips 66 raised its quarterly dividend to USD 1.20 per share, signalling continued shareholder value prioritisation. This marks a USD 0.05 increase and brings the annual dividend yield to 4.24%, a notable appeal for investors in New Zealand seeking reliable overseas dividends. Considering NZ’s tax treaty with the US, qualified New Zealand investors benefit from a reduced withholding tax on dividends, which enhances the effective net yield and supports the stock’s attractiveness for local portfolios targeting global energy sector exposure.

The successful start-up of the Rodeo renewable energy complex highlights Phillips 66’s strategic shift towards low-carbon solutions. This major initiative, operational since Q1 2024, boosts the company’s renewable fuels production. Given New Zealand’s strong governmental and consumer focus on sustainability and decarbonisation, this aligns Phillips 66 with global transition trends and positions it as a credible, long-term player for environmentally conscious investors in the region and institutional funds with ESG mandates.

Phillips 66 achieved substantial operational efficiencies, realising USD 1.24 billion in cost savings over the period. These improvements, including a 15% reduction in controllable refining costs since 2022, strengthen profitability amid volatile market conditions. For New Zealand investors and analysts, this demonstrates disciplined management and resilience within the cyclical energy sector, supporting Phillips 66’s ability to maintain strong cash flows and consistent dividend policies even during challenging periods.

Technical signals for the stock are mixed but include upward momentum in short-term moving averages. As of 30 May 2025, both the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages indicate buy signals, while the RSI remains neutral. With a current price of USD 114.68, PSX stands 23.5% below its consensus analyst target of USD 139.77, implying significant potential upside. This market positioning, along with robust fundamentals, makes the stock particularly interesting for New Zealand investors seeking growth-oriented holdings abroad.

Phillips 66 continues to reward its shareholders, returning over USD 14 billion through buybacks and dividends within three years. This policy of aggressive capital return is complemented by a 15% compound annual growth rate in the dividend, underscoring steadfast financial health and a strong commitment to shareholder interests—factors that are particularly valued by New Zealand institutions and private investors diversifying internationally in the energy and infrastructure sectors.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.