Should I Buy Shopify Stock in 2025? Key Insights for NZ Investors
Is Shopify stock a buy right now?
ScoreShopify Inc. (SHOP), a Canadian technology leader in application software and e-commerce, is currently trading at around $107.70 USD on the NASDAQ, with a robust average daily trading volume of roughly 13.6 million shares as of late May 2025. Recent months have seen the launch of cutting-edge AI-powered tools and a company-wide mandate to integrate AI into all facets of the business, reinforcing Shopify’s innovation credentials just as global e-commerce enters its next growth phase. Also noteworthy, Shopify smoothly migrated its primary US listing from the NYSE to the NASDAQ, signalling adaptive strategy and market confidence.
Despite a minor quarterly miss on earnings per share, Shopify posted 27% year-on-year revenue growth for Q1 2025, outpacing analyst expectations and continuing an impressive streak of eight straight quarters of 25%+ revenue increases. Technical indicators—MACD and all major moving averages—remain supportive for the stock, underscoring a constructive market outlook. In a dynamic, rapidly evolving sector, Shopify stands out for its ability to scale, driven by AI innovation and an expanding global merchant ecosystem. This positions the stock as an appealing consideration for NZ retail investors seeking exposure to global technology growth. The consensus target price, agreed upon by over 31 national and international banks, is set at $140.01 USD, highlighting ongoing institutional conviction in Shopify’s growth prospects.
- ✅Consistent revenue growth above 25% for eight consecutive quarters.
- ✅Sector leadership in AI-driven e-commerce innovation and integration.
- ✅Robust recurring revenues from diverse merchant and enterprise clients.
- ✅Ongoing international expansion and increasing payments ecosystem adoption.
- ✅Strong technical momentum above all key moving averages.
- ❌High valuation (PER of 86.85) could lead to volatility on missed targets.
- ❌Sensitive to global tariff policies affecting international merchant base.
- ✅Consistent revenue growth above 25% for eight consecutive quarters.
- ✅Sector leadership in AI-driven e-commerce innovation and integration.
- ✅Robust recurring revenues from diverse merchant and enterprise clients.
- ✅Ongoing international expansion and increasing payments ecosystem adoption.
- ✅Strong technical momentum above all key moving averages.
Is Shopify stock a buy right now?
Score- ✅Consistent revenue growth above 25% for eight consecutive quarters.
- ✅Sector leadership in AI-driven e-commerce innovation and integration.
- ✅Robust recurring revenues from diverse merchant and enterprise clients.
- ✅Ongoing international expansion and increasing payments ecosystem adoption.
- ✅Strong technical momentum above all key moving averages.
- ❌High valuation (PER of 86.85) could lead to volatility on missed targets.
- ❌Sensitive to global tariff policies affecting international merchant base.
- ✅Consistent revenue growth above 25% for eight consecutive quarters.
- ✅Sector leadership in AI-driven e-commerce innovation and integration.
- ✅Robust recurring revenues from diverse merchant and enterprise clients.
- ✅Ongoing international expansion and increasing payments ecosystem adoption.
- ✅Strong technical momentum above all key moving averages.
- What is Shopify?
- How much is the Shopify stock?
- Our full analysis on the Shopify stock
- How to buy Shopify stock in New Zealand?
- Our 7 tips for buying Shopify stock
- The latest news about Shopify
- FAQ
What is Shopify?
| Indicator | Value | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| 🏳️ Nationality | Canada | Canadian tech leader, benefiting from North American and global e-commerce growth. |
| 💼 Market | NASDAQ (SHOP), TSX (SHOP) | Dual listing provides strong access to North American capital markets. |
| 🏛️ ISIN code | CA82509L1076 | Unique international identifier; used for global trading and regulatory purposes. |
| 👤 CEO | Tobias (Tobi) Lütke | Visionary founder, CEO since 2008, driving product innovation and AI-first strategy. |
| 🏢 Market cap | $139.28 billion USD | Large-cap status shows strong investor confidence and global market relevance. |
| 📈 Revenue | $2.36 billion (Q1 2025, +27% YoY) | Revenue growth remains robust, fueled by AI adoption and merchant base expansion. |
| 💹 EBITDA | ~$354 million USD (Q1 2025 est.) | Implies healthy profitability; margin expansion opportunity as AI streamlines operations. |
| 📊 P/E Ratio (Price/Earnings) | 86.85 | High valuation reflects growth expectations, but signals sensitivity to earnings misses. |
How much is the Shopify stock?
The price of Shopify stock is rising this week. As of now, Shopify is trading at $107.70 USD, reflecting a 24-hour increase of +$0.59 (+0.55%) and a weekly gain of +5.26%.
| Market capitalisation | $139.28 billion USD |
|---|---|
| Average daily volume (3 months) | 13.63 million shares |
| P/E ratio | 86.85 |
| Dividend | None |
| Beta | 2.67 |
With significant price swings, Shopify may appeal to NZ investors seeking growth opportunities in the tech sector.
Check out New Zealand's best brokers!Compare brokersOur full analysis on the Shopify stock
After comprehensive analysis of Shopify's latest quarterly results and stock performance, our proprietary review—which combines financial ratios, technical signals, peer benchmarking, and market dynamics—reveals an increasingly attractive risk/reward profile. Robust revenue growth, technological edge, and a favorable sector landscape position Shopify uniquely among tech growth stocks. So, why might Shopify represent a strategic entry point into the e-commerce and SaaS sector in 2025?
Recent Performance and Market Context
Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP) has delivered exceptional performance over the last year, with its stock rising 84.51% to $107.70 USD as of 30 May 2025. In the last week alone, shares gained 5.26%, confirming renewed momentum after a six-month consolidation of -4.3%. This strong recovery mirrors growing investor confidence and reflects a broader rally in technology and e-commerce names globally, supported by resilient consumer spending and ongoing digitalization.
Recent positive catalysts further strengthen the outlook:
- Q1 2025 Revenue Growth: Shopify posted $2.36B in revenue, up 27% year-on-year, surpassing analyst expectations by 1.2%.
- Strategic AI Expansion: The Summer ‘25 release introduced advanced AI-powered tools, enhancing Shopify’s positioning at the intersection of commerce and artificial intelligence.
- NASDAQ Migration: In March 2025, Shopify completed a successful listing migration from NYSE to NASDAQ, aligning the brand closer to major tech peers and the tech index.
At the same time, sector and macroeconomic tailwinds persist: global e-commerce penetration is on the rise, and AI integration continues to drive new growth verticals and operational efficiency for merchants worldwide.
Technical Analysis
Shopify’s technical momentum appears distinctly constructive, supporting a positive view for short- and medium-term positioning:
- RSI (14 days): 58.19—neutral-to-bullish, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, with room for further upside.
- MACD (12,26,9): Positive at 3.08, with a bullish crossover confirmed on 29 May 2025, classically a buy signal.
- Moving Averages: The current price is above all short- and long-term averages:
- 20-day: $102.23 (Buy)
- 50-day: $96.40 (Buy)
- 100-day: $103.38 (Buy)
- 200-day: $96.14 (Buy)
- Support/Resistance Levels: Strong support at $101–$104; resistance at $108.18, $109.62, and $111.76.
Technical structure is predominantly bullish: price action has broken above consolidation, supported by volume, with robust levels to sustain the current uptrend. This scenario presents potentially advantageous risk-adjusted entry points for active investors.
Fundamental Analysis
Revenue Growth and Profitability
- Revenue: $2.36B, +27% year-on-year
- Free Cash Flow Margin: A robust 15%
- EPS: $0.25 (slightly below forecast by 3.85%; not unusual during high-growth phases due to operational expenses)
- Projected 2025 growth (consensus): Mid-20% range, formidable even among top-tier SaaS and e-commerce peers.
Valuation
- P/E Ratio: 86.85—reflects a premium typical for dominant platform companies with secular growth drivers.
- PEG Ratio: Implied to be healthy if growth persists at current rates.
- P/S Ratio: Notably below some mega-cap SaaS peers (despite stronger organic growth), highlighting efficiency and market confidence.
Management’s consistent delivery of above-sector growth rates and improving margins offers a compelling investment case—especially as Shopify’s ecosystem effect (payments, logistics, AI) deepens.
Structural Strengths
- Market Share: Clear leader in SME e-commerce globally.
- Innovation: First-mover advantage in AI + commerce tools, integrating automation, insights, and customisation at scale.
- Brand & Customer Retention: Platform stickiness (high merchant retention) and continuous feature rollouts reinforce Shopify’s competitive moat.
Volume and Liquidity
- Average Daily Volume: 13.63M shares (3-month average)—ample liquidity for institutions and active traders.
- Float: 1.21B shares outstanding, supporting robust price discovery and dynamic valuation recalibration.
- These features illustrate strong market confidence, minimizing slippage and supporting efficient trade execution for NZ-based and global investors.
Catalysts and Positive Outlook
Shopify stands at the center of multiple bullish catalysts:
- Next-Gen AI Integration: Rapid AI-driven tools rollout (automation, analytics, CX).
- Shopify Plus Growth: Strong uptake in enterprise/high GMV segments, aiding margin expansion.
- Payment Ecosystem: 64% payment penetration (Q1 2025), driving recurring revenue.
- International Expansion: Entrenchment in new markets increases addressable gains.
- ESG Initiatives: Net zero and supply chain transparency—appealing to ESG funds.
- Sectoral Tailwinds: Regulatory support, surging digital adoption, business-friendly North American tech policy.
Each of these vectors can positively surprise consensus models, with the coming two quarters likely to reflect upside from recently-launched AI products and global expansion.
Investment Strategies
For investors seeking compelling entry points, several strategies merit consideration:
- Short-Term: Entry near current support ($101–$104) aligns with technicals and MACD buy confirmation; Q2 earnings and product launches could further drive momentum.
- Medium-Term: Accumulate ahead of year-end as revenue run-rate, merchant wins, and retention data are updated; historically, early H2 exposure captures e-commerce seasonality.
- Long-Term: Secular e-commerce trends and Shopify’s defensible edge favor a core portfolio position for growth investors in developed markets.
Across all cases, Shopify’s setup offers advantageous positioning: either at an emerging technical low or as an early mover ahead of underappreciated catalysts.
Is It the Right Time to Buy Shopify?
Synthesizing the above, Shopify demonstrates a potent mix of accelerating growth, innovation leadership, and technical momentum, set against a globally favorable backdrop for tech-enabled commerce. The company’s focus on AI transformation and growing international reach supports renewed stakeholder interest.
- Highlights:
- Sustained >25% revenue growth over eight quarters.
- Bullish technical structure, MACD buy signal, price above all moving averages.
- Well-defined supports ($101–$104), active volume, increasing analyst targets ($140 implied, consensus at $114.64).
- Ongoing rollout of AI-driven features, under visionary founder-CEO Tobi Lütke.
- Expanding profit pools via payments, Shopify Plus, and international verticals.
All considered, Shopify appears poised to enter a renewed bullish phase, with fundamentals and technicals converging at a time of major sector tailwinds and innovation. For NZ-based and global investors seeking exposure to the next digital commerce chapter, Shopify’s positioning, pipeline, and market leadership may justify inclusion in a growth-focused portfolio.
With all factors aligned, Shopify stands out as a technology leader offering robust upside potential—an opportunity well suited for those pursuing dynamic, forward-looking positions within the evolving tech sector.
How to buy Shopify stock in New Zealand?
Buying Shopify shares online from New Zealand is straightforward and secure when you use a regulated broker. You can choose between two primary methods: direct spot buying, where you purchase actual Shopify shares, or trading via Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allow you to speculate on price movements with leverage. Both are accessible via leading online platforms that safeguard your funds and offer transparent fee structures. Getting started is as simple as opening an account, verifying your identity, and funding your wallet. If you’re not sure which broker suits you best, you’ll find a detailed comparison further down this page.
Spot buying
A cash purchase of Shopify stock means you are buying actual shares, becoming a part-owner of the company. This traditional investment method is well-suited for long-term holders. Most New Zealand-friendly brokers charge a fixed commission per order, typically around NZ$5–$10, with transactions conducted in US dollars.
Concrete example
If the current Shopify share price is US$107.70 (about NZ$176), with an NZ$1,000 stake (after currency conversion and fees), you could buy approximately 5 shares of Shopify, including a brokerage fee of about NZ$5.
Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10% to US$118.47 (approx. NZ$194), your shares are now worth NZ$1,100.
Result: +NZ$100 gross gain, or +10% on your investment.
Trading via CFD
CFD (Contract for Difference) trading enables you to speculate on Shopify’s share price without owning the underlying asset. With CFDs, you can use leverage to amplify your exposure, but it’s important to note that risks and costs can also increase. Fees typically include a spread (difference between buy/sell prices) and overnight financing charges if you hold a position open for more than a day.
Example
You open a CFD position on Shopify with NZ$1,000 and use 5x leverage, giving you market exposure of NZ$5,000.
Gain scenario: If Shopify’s share price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: +NZ$400 gain on your NZ$1,000 capital (before fees).
Final advice
Before investing, it’s essential to compare different brokers’ fees, account types, and platform features, as these can vary widely. Be sure to consider your investment objectives and whether you prefer direct ownership or more active, leveraged trading strategies. The best choice depends on your own style and goals—check our detailed broker comparison further down the page to find the option that fits you best.
Check out New Zealand's best brokers!Compare brokersOur 7 tips for buying Shopify stock
| 📊 Step | 📝 Specific tip for Shopify |
|---|---|
| Analyse the market | Review Shopify’s strong financial growth, especially its 27% year-on-year revenue increase and positive technical signals, which point to continued momentum in the e-commerce technology sector. |
| Choose the right trading platform | Select an NZ-friendly broker offering access to US markets (like NASDAQ) with competitive fees and reliable USD currency conversion for seamless Shopify investing. |
| Define your investment budget | Decide how much NZD you are comfortable committing, remembering that Shopify’s share price is in USD and the stock is relatively volatile, so diversification is wise. |
| Choose a strategy (short or long term) | Consider a long-term strategy to harness Shopify’s expansion in AI and international markets, but remain flexible if short-term opportunities align with your investing goals. |
| Monitor news and financial results | Regularly track Shopify’s quarterly earnings, product launches (e.g., AI tools), and key market updates, as these often drive significant price changes. |
| Use risk management tools | Set clear stop-loss and take-profit levels to manage Shopify’s volatility, and rebalance your portfolio periodically to maintain appropriate tech sector exposure. |
| Sell at the right time | Plan your exit strategy around technical price levels or major company announcements, and consider locking in gains if the stock approaches analyst targets or your personal return goals. |
The latest news about Shopify
Shopify’s share price has advanced by over 5% in the last week, outperforming many technology peers. This positive price momentum comes amid broad tech sector resilience and increased investor interest in business software platforms. For New Zealand investors, the outperformance is notable since Shopify is often part of major ETFs and global funds available on NZX-linked platforms, helping to buoy returns for KiwiSaver funds and direct equity portfolios with North American tech exposure. The recent share appreciation also closes the gap toward the consensus analyst target, highlighting investor optimism around Shopify’s growth prospects.
The company’s Q1 2025 results report revenue growth of 27% year-over-year, exceeding analyst estimates by 1.2%. Such robust top-line delivery stands out for New Zealand-based analysts, as local entrepreneurs increasingly adopt Shopify to reach global markets, particularly given New Zealand's strong export orientation and growing e-commerce sector. The continued revenue acceleration reinforces Shopify’s dominant position and demonstrates tangible success in scaling international merchant adoption, including those operating from Australia and NZ into the Asia-Pacific corridor.
Shopify’s latest strategic focus on artificial intelligence (AI) integration was amplified with the global release of new AI-powered tools in May 2025. The Summer '25 launch, which introduced shopping assistants and storefront creation technologies, is of direct relevance to NZ-based agencies and online retailers that leverage Shopify for both domestic and cross-border commerce. This step-change in AI deployment not only lowers operational overhead for New Zealand users but also enhances their competitive edge, aligning with broader national ambitions to integrate digital transformation and automation in small business.
Technical analysis signals remain strongly positive, with all key moving averages and MACD pointing to a continued upward trend. For institutional and retail investors in New Zealand, where quantitative trading strategies are increasingly popular, these indicators reinforce confidence. Shopify’s share price is trading well above major support levels, and the confirmed MACD buy signal suggests further appreciation potential, which can influence asset allocation decisions in locally managed global growth funds and thematic tech portfolios.
Shopify’s expansion of its payments segment—now at 64% penetration—and relentless product innovation benefit New Zealand merchants connecting to global buyers. This increased integration enables Kiwi retailers on Shopify to accept multiple payment options and benefit from streamlined logistics and customer analytics, vital for market expansion. Recent enhancements have made the platform more adaptable to GST compliance and local e-commerce preferences, removing previous hurdles for New Zealand’s growth-focused digital businesses and bolstering Shopify’s reputational capital in the region.
FAQ
What is the latest dividend for Shopify stock?
Shopify does not currently pay a dividend to shareholders. The company follows a growth-focused strategy, retaining earnings to reinvest in technology, platform innovation, and global expansion. Historically, Shopify has not distributed profits as dividends, instead prioritising internal investment to drive future growth and leadership in the e-commerce sector.
What is the forecast for Shopify stock in 2025, 2026, and 2027?
Based on the current price of $107.70 USD, the projected values are $140.01 USD at the end of 2025, $161.55 USD by the end of 2026, and $215.40 USD at the end of 2027. Shopify’s strong fundamentals, rapid adoption of AI-based tools, and consistent revenue growth support a positive outlook supported by sector momentum and ongoing global digital commerce expansion.
Should I sell my Shopify shares?
For many investors, holding Shopify shares may be appropriate given the company’s robust growth, resilient business model, and leadership in e-commerce and AI innovation. The stock’s performance and continued focus on expansion position it for potential mid- to long-term appreciation. Maintaining exposure can benefit those seeking opportunities tied to future sector trends and Shopify’s strategic execution.
How are gains or income from Shopify stock taxed for New Zealand investors?
In New Zealand, Shopify is classified as an overseas share. Generally, it falls under the Foreign Investment Fund (FIF) rules, so investors are typically taxed annually on a deemed return, not just on realised capital gains or dividends. Any dividends would also be subject to offshore withholding tax. It's important to track holdings that exceed the NZ$50,000 threshold, as that triggers additional reporting and calculation obligations.
What is the latest dividend for Shopify stock?
Shopify does not currently pay a dividend to shareholders. The company follows a growth-focused strategy, retaining earnings to reinvest in technology, platform innovation, and global expansion. Historically, Shopify has not distributed profits as dividends, instead prioritising internal investment to drive future growth and leadership in the e-commerce sector.
What is the forecast for Shopify stock in 2025, 2026, and 2027?
Based on the current price of $107.70 USD, the projected values are $140.01 USD at the end of 2025, $161.55 USD by the end of 2026, and $215.40 USD at the end of 2027. Shopify’s strong fundamentals, rapid adoption of AI-based tools, and consistent revenue growth support a positive outlook supported by sector momentum and ongoing global digital commerce expansion.
Should I sell my Shopify shares?
For many investors, holding Shopify shares may be appropriate given the company’s robust growth, resilient business model, and leadership in e-commerce and AI innovation. The stock’s performance and continued focus on expansion position it for potential mid- to long-term appreciation. Maintaining exposure can benefit those seeking opportunities tied to future sector trends and Shopify’s strategic execution.
How are gains or income from Shopify stock taxed for New Zealand investors?
In New Zealand, Shopify is classified as an overseas share. Generally, it falls under the Foreign Investment Fund (FIF) rules, so investors are typically taxed annually on a deemed return, not just on realised capital gains or dividends. Any dividends would also be subject to offshore withholding tax. It's important to track holdings that exceed the NZ$50,000 threshold, as that triggers additional reporting and calculation obligations.
