Should I buy ASML stock in 2025? Full NZ Market Analysis
Is ASML stock a buy right now?
ScoreASML Holding N.V. stands as a pivotal force in the global semiconductor equipment sector, making it a compelling consideration for New Zealand investors seeking tech exposure beyond local borders. As of late May 2025, ASML shares are trading around $747.07 USD, with a three-month average daily volume of approximately 1.64 million shares. Recent quarterly results have exceeded expectations, reflecting robust annual revenue of €28.3 billion and a resilient net profit profile, even in a year marked by macro volatility and shifting trade policies. Notably, the company’s Q4 results outperformed estimates, underlining strong end-market demand, mainly driven by the continued AI-led upcycle in advanced chip manufacturing.
While recent warnings from the CEO about potential tariff uncertainty stemming from US-China relations deserve monitoring, the overall market sentiment remains constructively optimistic. This confidence is buoyed by ASML’s unmatched technological leadership in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, high recurring service revenues, and an expanding base of long-term clients such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. Within the context of the global technology sector, ASML’s dominant market position and high barriers to entry fortify its outlook. According to the consensus of over 31 national and international banks, a target price of $971 is projected, highlighting analyst conviction in the company’s upside potential as demand for AI-related chips accelerates.
- ✅Dominant market leader in EUV lithography with effective monopoly status.
- ✅Consistently outperforms earnings expectations with strong profit margins.
- ✅Beneficiary of long-term growth in AI and advanced chip demand.
- ✅Robust, recurring revenues from servicing long-lifespan equipment.
- ✅Significant, ongoing investment in next-generation R&D and innovation.
- ❌Geopolitical tensions may intermittently affect trade and investor sentiment.
- ❌Heavily exposed to cyclicality in the broader semiconductor industry.
- ✅Dominant market leader in EUV lithography with effective monopoly status.
- ✅Consistently outperforms earnings expectations with strong profit margins.
- ✅Beneficiary of long-term growth in AI and advanced chip demand.
- ✅Robust, recurring revenues from servicing long-lifespan equipment.
- ✅Significant, ongoing investment in next-generation R&D and innovation.
Is ASML stock a buy right now?
Score- ✅Dominant market leader in EUV lithography with effective monopoly status.
- ✅Consistently outperforms earnings expectations with strong profit margins.
- ✅Beneficiary of long-term growth in AI and advanced chip demand.
- ✅Robust, recurring revenues from servicing long-lifespan equipment.
- ✅Significant, ongoing investment in next-generation R&D and innovation.
- ❌Geopolitical tensions may intermittently affect trade and investor sentiment.
- ❌Heavily exposed to cyclicality in the broader semiconductor industry.
- ✅Dominant market leader in EUV lithography with effective monopoly status.
- ✅Consistently outperforms earnings expectations with strong profit margins.
- ✅Beneficiary of long-term growth in AI and advanced chip demand.
- ✅Robust, recurring revenues from servicing long-lifespan equipment.
- ✅Significant, ongoing investment in next-generation R&D and innovation.
- What is ASML?
- How much is the ASML stock?
- Our full analysis on the ASML stock
- How to buy ASML stock in New Zealand?
- Our 7 tips for buying ASML stock
- The latest news about ASML
- FAQ
What is ASML?
| Indicator | Value | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| 🏳️ Nationality | Netherlands | Based in the Netherlands, ASML benefits from a stable European business environment. |
| 💼 Market | NASDAQ, Euronext Amsterdam | Dual listing offers liquidity and access for US/EU investors, including those in NZ. |
| 🏛️ ISIN code | NL0010273215 | Unique identifier; crucial for trading and portfolio tracking from New Zealand. |
| 👤 CEO | Christophe Fouquet | New CEO since 2024; key for continuing ASML's leadership and innovation focus. |
| 🏢 Market cap | $298.24 billion USD | One of Europe's largest tech firms; scale supports R&D and global operations. |
| 📈 Revenue | €28.3 billion (FY 2024) | Strong year-on-year revenue growth signals robust demand for ASML’s technology. |
| 💹 EBITDA | Not specifically disclosed | High gross margins indicate strong operating leverage; details in full financials. |
| 📊 P/E Ratio (Price/Earnings) | 31.35 | Premium valuation reflects ASML's near-monopoly and future growth in semiconductor demand. |
How much is the ASML stock?
The price of ASML stock is rising this week. As of now, ASML shares are trading at $747.07 USD, up by $0.56 (0.07%) over the last 24 hours and recording a 1.34% gain for the week.
| Market capitalization | $298.24 billion |
|---|---|
| Average 3-month trading volume | 1.64 million shares |
| P/E ratio | 29.59 |
| Dividend yield | 1.12% |
| Stock beta | 1.22 |
ASML's stock beta of 1.22 signals moderate volatility compared to the broader market. For NZ investors, ASML’s leading industry position and promising long-term prospects present notable investment opportunities despite some market fluctuations.
Check out New Zealand's best brokers!Compare brokersOur full analysis on the ASML stock
Having thoroughly reviewed ASML Holding N.V.’s most recent financial results and analyzed the stock’s performance trajectory over the past three years, we have leveraged a combination of financial ratios, technical indicators, sector trends, and proprietary algorithmic models to assess ASML’s outlook. Our research integrates market data, competitor positioning, and structural economic drivers to provide a comprehensive viewpoint. So, why might ASML stock once again become a strategic entry point into the advanced semiconductor equipment sector in 2025?
Recent Performance and Market Context
Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment for semiconductor equities in 2024, ASML has displayed remarkable resilience. The stock is currently trading at $747.07 USD (as of 30 May 2025), showing an intraday gain (+0.07%), a 1-week uptick of 1.34%, and a robust 11.42% advance over the past six months. While the 1-year return sits at -24.68%—reflecting a sector-wide correction and broader cyclical headwinds—ASML’s share price remains comfortably above its 52-week low ($578.51), having rebounded decisively from its trough.
Key positive events have underpinned recent sentiment. January 2025 saw the release of record-beating Q4 2024 results, substantially surpassing revenue and margin expectations. This resilience was further supported by an increase in the final 2024 dividend, approved at the AGM in April 2025. Moreover, while commentary from management regarding US tariff uncertainty in May generated some cautious headlines, the underlying trend remains constructive, reflecting robust order books and continued demand for next-generation semiconductor production tools—especially in the context of surging investments in AI and high-performance computing.
Macroeconomically, global technology investment—particularly across Asia-Pacific—remains on an upward trajectory, buttressing sector performance. The ongoing digital transformation, coupled with geopolitical efforts to secure advanced chip supply chains, provides an enduring tailwind for leading-edge equipment makers. For New Zealand-based investors seeking international growth exposure, ASML stands at the confluence of structural technology demand and global supply chain reorientation.
Technical Analysis
ASML’s technical posture as of late May 2025 indicates a market coiling for renewed upside. The 14-day RSI at 58.8 signals a healthy balance between overbought and oversold conditions—positioning the stock for further advance without technical exhaustion. The MACD indicator at 18.57 communicates a clear bullish momentum cue.
| Moving Average | Level (USD) | Relationship with Price |
|---|---|---|
| 20-day | $725.21 | Below current price |
| 50-day | $691.78 | Below current price |
| 100-day | $710.11 | Below current price |
| 200-day | $735.23 | Below current price |
All key moving averages confirm a positive bias: the 20-day ($725.21), 50-day ($691.78), 100-day ($710.11), and 200-day ($735.23) are each trading below the current price, reinforcing the ongoing uptrend. This multi-timeframe support structure is significant, as it highlights persistent buying interest across both short- and long-term horizons.
Critical technical levels bolster the case for re-accumulation. Strong support is established at $742.18—a zone buyers have consistently defended—while initial resistance at $771.40 provides a clearly defined near-term upside target. With classical pivot points at $750.76 (S1) and $762.02 (R1), traders and investors have actionable benchmarks for entry and risk management.
The market’s overall technical consensus leans “Strong Buy”, reflecting broad-based conviction in ASML’s recovery potential and offering promising momentum for those considering fresh allocations.
Fundamental Analysis
| Metric | Q4 2024 | 2024 Full Year | Q1 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €9.3 billion | €28.3 billion | €7.7 billion (prelim.) |
| Net Income | — | €7.6 billion | €2.4 billion |
| Gross Margin | 51.7% | — | — |
| Dividend per Share | — | €6.40 (+4.9% y/y) | — |
| Return on Equity | 55.11% | — | — |
ASML’s fundamentals remain among the most compelling in the global technology sector. The Q4 2024 topline reached an impressive €9.3 billion—well ahead of analyst estimates—and annual revenue for 2024 hit €28.3 billion, translating into robust full-year net income of €7.6 billion. The company’s Q1 2025 results sustained this positive trend, with preliminary revenue at €7.7 billion and net profit of €2.4 billion, reflecting persistent commercial strength even amid sectoral volatility.
- Profitability: Q4's gross margin was 51.7%. Return on equity (ROE) is 55.11%, highlighting management effectiveness and operating leverage.
- Dividend growth: €6.40 per share for 2024 (+4.9% year-on-year), forward yield 1.12%.
- Valuation multiples: Forward P/E 29.59, Price/Sales 8.91, Price/Book 15.51—consistent with historical ranges for technology leaders.
- Analyst consensus: 12-month price target at $905.45 (+21.06% upside), Morningstar fair value $881.
- Strategic moat: Unparalleled position in Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, with clients like TSMC, Samsung, Intel; high entry barriers, service revenues, and long-term equipment cycles.
Strategically, ASML remains unrivaled in Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography—an essential process for fabricating the world’s most advanced semiconductors. The company’s clients include all industry titans: TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. Massive capital and technological barriers to entry protect the franchise, while decades-long equipment service lifecycles provide recurrent, high-margin revenue streams.
Volume and Liquidity
Market confidence in ASML is reflected in sustained trading volumes. The three-month average daily turnover stands at 1.64 million shares—substantial for a European-headquartered global technology stock and indicative of broad institutional and retail engagement.
The float remains ample (393.20 million shares outstanding), facilitating efficient price discovery and dynamic valuation adjustment in response to news flow and earnings surprises. Importantly, this liquidity profile allows for active portfolio management without fear of capacity constraints—an essential feature for both active and passive global investors.
Catalysts and Positive Outlook
Looking ahead, ASML is positioned amid several powerful catalysts set to drive further upside.
- Technological leadership: The company's dominance in EUV and rollout of new High-NA EUV systems keep it years ahead of would-be competitors, powering industry-wide transitions to more advanced chip nodes.
- AI and high-performance computing: The explosive growth of artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure is creating acute demand for ever-smaller, more powerful chips—locking in multiyear order visibility for ASML’s core products.
- Geographic expansion: ASML’s continued focus on Asia-Pacific leverages fast-growing chip fabrication hubs and government-supported technology buildouts.
- Recurring service revenues: With a typical machine operational lifetime exceeding 30 years, the associated high-margin maintenance and upgrade contracts are set to provide consistent, recession-resistant cash flows.
- ESG and innovation: Heavy R&D investment ensures intellectual property leadership and aligns with global sustainability requirements—a particularly salient consideration for New Zealand investors increasingly focused on ESG credentials.
Sector-wide, technology regulation appears increasingly supportive of domestic capability buildouts (notably in the US, EU, and Asia), indirectly reinforcing demand for ASML’s unique offerings regardless of near-term geopolitical tension.
Investment Strategies
ASML’s current price action and positioning appear attractive for a variety of investment horizons:
- Short-term: The proximity of the stock to its established support at $742.18—coupled with positive earnings momentum and technical strength—may reward tactical buyers seeking a rebound toward first resistance at $771.40.
- Medium-term: Investors looking toward the next catalyst (notably any updates related to new EUV deployments or major customer orders) have a window to position ahead of such events, potentially participating in multi-quarter appreciation as macro trends realign.
- Long-term: Given ASML’s sector monopoly, formidable brand, and secular growth drivers (AI, geopolitics, automation), the stock remains a core candidate for long-term portfolios seeking sustained technology exposure. The blend of earnings consistency, innovation, and defensive moat continues to justify incorporating ASML at current levels, especially for those aiming to ride the next wave of technological transformation.
Ideal positioning could be considered at or near the recent technical floor, or in anticipation of upcoming earnings and commercial announcements, when volatility may present entry points below consensus fair value.
Is it the Right Time to Buy ASML?
In summary, ASML exemplifies a rare combination of cyclical resilience, structural dominance, and technological indispensability. The company’s robust Q4 and Q1 performance, compelling forecasted growth driven by AI and advanced chip demand, attractive (and growing) dividend, and the consensus among analysts for significant near-term upside (+21%) all suggest that the fundamentals justify renewed investor interest.
Technical indicators reinforce this view, with strong support and a resumption of bullish momentum, while broad and deep liquidity enhances portfolio implementation for a wide range of investor types. For New Zealand-based investors, ASML stands out among global technology stocks as particularly well placed to benefit from sector expansion and global supply chain realignment.
As the world increasingly relies on advanced semiconductors to power growth and innovation, ASML’s unique market position appears poised to convert structural demand into lasting shareholder value. There is every reason to believe that the stock may be entering a new bullish phase supported by durable fundamentals and strategic catalysts—an excellent opportunity for investors attentive to long-term technology trends and portfolio growth potential.
With its dominant industry positioning and persistent innovation engine, ASML seems especially well structured to deliver robust returns to those seeking exposure to the heart of the next technological revolution.
How to buy ASML stock in New Zealand?
Buying ASML stock online is simple, secure, and accessible for New Zealand investors thanks to regulated online brokers. You can choose between two main methods: direct spot buying—where you own the shares outright—or trading through Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allows you to speculate on price movements with leverage. Both approaches are available via popular online platforms registered in NZ. Whichever style suits you, rest assured that regulated brokers provide investor protections. To help you get started confidently, you’ll find a detailed broker comparison tool further down the page.
Spot buying
A cash (spot) purchase means you’re buying ASML shares directly through a broker, which makes you the actual owner of the stock. This method is perfect if you want to benefit from long-term price appreciation and dividends. NZ brokers typically charge a fixed commission per order—often around NZ$5 to NZ$15, depending on the platform.
Example
Suppose ASML shares are trading at US$747.07 (approx. NZ$1,210 at current exchange rates). With a NZ$1,000 investment, you could buy about 0.82 shares (NZ$1,000 minus an NZ$5 fee, divided by the NZ$1,210 share price).
✔️ Scenario: The share price rises 10%.
Your NZ$1,000 investment is now worth NZ$1,100.
Result: Gross gain of NZ$100 (+10%), plus you’ll also be eligible for any declared dividends.
Trading via CFD
CFD trading lets you speculate on the rise or fall of ASML’s share price without owning the physical shares. You can use leverage, meaning only a small part of the trade’s value is needed up front. Fees include the spread (the difference between buy and sell price) and possibly overnight financing if you hold the position beyond market close.
Example
You open a CFD position on ASML with NZ$1,000 and use 5x leverage, giving you exposure worth NZ$5,000.
✔️ Scenario: The stock rises by 8%.
Your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%, or NZ$400 (on your NZ$1,000 investment, excluding fees).
*Note: If the price goes down, losses are also magnified.*
Final advice
Before investing, it’s essential to compare broker fees, currency conversion rates, platform features, and support services. The best choice depends on your objectives—whether you want to own shares for the long term or actively trade price movements. For detailed side-by-side comparisons of brokers serving New Zealanders, refer to the comparison tool further down this page. Always choose the investment route that matches your own goals and risk comfort.
Check out New Zealand's best brokers!Compare brokersOur 7 tips for buying ASML stock
| Step | Specific tip for ASML |
|---|---|
| Analyse the market | Assess demand trends in the global semiconductor and AI sectors, which drive ASML’s growth, while keeping an eye on cyclical risks and NZD/USD rates. |
| Choose the right trading platform | Select an NZ-compliant broker with access to the NASDAQ and Euronext, competitive FX rates, and clear dividend handling for international stocks. |
| Define your investment budget | Allocate capital based on ASML’s moderate volatility and diversification benefits, ensuring you stay within your personal risk tolerance. |
| Choose a strategy (short or long term) | Favour a long-term approach to benefit from ASML’s strong innovation pipeline, robust recurring revenues, and positive analyst outlook. |
| Monitor news and financial results | Follow ASML’s earnings, major geopolitical updates, and announcements on new technologies, as these can significantly move the share price. |
| Use risk management tools | Make use of stop-loss orders and set appropriate position sizes, especially given ASML’s exposure to global trade and market fluctuations. |
| Sell at the right time | Consider profit-taking near resistance levels or after sharp rallies, and reassess your position when there are major industry or company changes. |
The latest news about ASML
ASML stock has gained 1.34% over the past week, backed by strong technical buy signals and consensus upgrades. Over the last seven days, ASML shares have seen positive momentum, with the price climbing to $747.07 USD and technical indicators such as moving averages and MACD all flashing buy signals. The technical consensus is currently at an unequivocal “Strong Buy,” with the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages supporting upward price trajectories. This recent strength is notable given global market volatility and reassures NZ-based investors, who often seek stability and growth potential within internationally listed semiconductor leaders.
Recent financial results show Q1 2025 revenue and profit exceeding analyst expectations, reinforcing business resilience. Preliminary figures for Q1 2025 reveal revenues of €7.7 billion and a net profit of €2.4 billion, building on a record-setting Q4 2024 where revenues reached €9.3 billion against market forecasts. This outperformance underscores ASML’s recurring contract strength, technological leadership, and rapid monetization of next-generation lithography demand globally, including the Asia-Pacific region that is of high strategic importance for New Zealand’s hi-tech sector suppliers and investors seeking global technology exposure.
ASML has secured approval for a final 2024 dividend of €1.84 per share, with a 4.9% increase in annual payout. In April 2025, shareholders approved a final dividend for 2024, raising the total annual dividend to €6.40 per share. This increase reflects management’s commitment to rewarding long-term investors and adds an attractive yield (forward 1.12%), addressing the rising appetite in New Zealand for dividend-paying international equities amidst persistently low domestic rates. The stock’s earnings consistency and dividend policy enhance its profile for Kiwi investors focused on capital preservation and portfolio income.
The ongoing global demand for advanced chips, especially for AI, reinforces ASML’s industry monopoly and long-term outlook. ASML continues to dominate the market for EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography equipment—crucial for manufacturing state-of-the-art semiconductors—which has fueled a robust order book from major global clients such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. In New Zealand, where semiconductor and AI-adjacent innovation is a government priority, this entrenched monopoly, coupled with robust R&D and recurring service revenues, signals sustainable long-term growth, making ASML a prime candidate for inclusion in technology-focused investment portfolios.
Analyst consensus remains bullish, with a $905.45 USD price target offering notable upside from current levels. Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and sector cyclicality, analysts maintain a “Buy” rating on ASML, with a consensus target implying over 21% upside. For NZ-based market participants and professional analysts, this consensus—supported by solid fundamentals, superior return on equity (55.1%), and increasing relevance in global supply chains—reinforces the attractiveness of ASML as a core holding within international growth and thematic mandates, especially for those seeking direct exposure to the semiconductor industry’s global evolution.
FAQ
What is the latest dividend for ASML stock?
ASML currently pays a dividend. For 2024, shareholders received a total dividend of €6.40 per share, with a final payment of €1.84 per share approved in April 2025. The forward yield sits at around 1.12%, and the company has a consistent history of growing its dividend over recent years—reflecting strong cash generation from its dominance in lithography equipment.
What is the forecast for ASML stock in 2025, 2026, and 2027?
Based on recent figures, a projected share price for ASML could be $971 at the end of 2025, $1,121 at the end of 2026, and $1,494 at the end of 2027. These estimates align with ongoing sector growth, driven by strong demand for advanced semiconductors and ASML’s unique leadership in next-generation chip manufacturing equipment.
Should I sell my ASML shares?
Given ASML’s position as the key innovator in cutting-edge semiconductor technology and its historical ability to outperform market expectations, holding ASML shares remains a reasonable choice for those seeking long-term growth. The company’s solid fundamentals, recurring revenue streams, and resilient sector trends all support a mid- to long-term holding strategy—even with short-term volatility.
How are dividends and gains from ASML stock taxed for New Zealand investors?
Dividends paid by ASML to New Zealand investors are generally subject to Dutch withholding tax, typically at 15%, which may not be fully reclaimable. For NZ tax purposes, both dividends and capital gains from overseas shares like ASML must be declared, potentially under the Foreign Investment Fund (FIF) rules when holdings exceed NZD $50,000. Always check with a tax advisor for the latest details on double taxation agreements and reporting requirements.
What is the latest dividend for ASML stock?
ASML currently pays a dividend. For 2024, shareholders received a total dividend of €6.40 per share, with a final payment of €1.84 per share approved in April 2025. The forward yield sits at around 1.12%, and the company has a consistent history of growing its dividend over recent years—reflecting strong cash generation from its dominance in lithography equipment.
What is the forecast for ASML stock in 2025, 2026, and 2027?
Based on recent figures, a projected share price for ASML could be $971 at the end of 2025, $1,121 at the end of 2026, and $1,494 at the end of 2027. These estimates align with ongoing sector growth, driven by strong demand for advanced semiconductors and ASML’s unique leadership in next-generation chip manufacturing equipment.
Should I sell my ASML shares?
Given ASML’s position as the key innovator in cutting-edge semiconductor technology and its historical ability to outperform market expectations, holding ASML shares remains a reasonable choice for those seeking long-term growth. The company’s solid fundamentals, recurring revenue streams, and resilient sector trends all support a mid- to long-term holding strategy—even with short-term volatility.
How are dividends and gains from ASML stock taxed for New Zealand investors?
Dividends paid by ASML to New Zealand investors are generally subject to Dutch withholding tax, typically at 15%, which may not be fully reclaimable. For NZ tax purposes, both dividends and capital gains from overseas shares like ASML must be declared, potentially under the Foreign Investment Fund (FIF) rules when holdings exceed NZD $50,000. Always check with a tax advisor for the latest details on double taxation agreements and reporting requirements.
