Should I buy Goodman Property Trust stock in 2025?

What is Goodman Property Trust?

How much is the Goodman Property Trust stock?

The price of Goodman Property Trust stock is stable this week. As of today, GMT is trading at NZ$1.94 per unit, reflecting a slight 0.2% increase over the past 24 hours, but down 1.7% for the week. The trust holds a market capitalisation of approximately NZ$2.96 billion, with an average 3-month trading volume of 1.12 million units. GMT offers a dividend yield of around 3.3%, presents a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 15.5, and its stock beta of 0.59 points to lower volatility compared to the broader NZX market. With its robust fundamentals and steady yields, GMT stands out as a solid option for investors seeking stable long-term returns in New Zealand’s property sector.

Our full analysis on the Goodman Property Trust stock

Having thoroughly reviewed Goodman Property Trust’s (GMT) most recent financial results and its performance trajectory throughout the past three years, our in-depth analysis integrates proprietary algorithms drawing upon a wide array of financial indicators, technical signals, market dynamics, and competitive positioning. This multi-layered approach yields a holistic perspective clearly contextualized for the New Zealand REIT sector at a pivotal time for logistics and commercial property investment. So, why might Goodman Property Trust stock once again become a strategic entry point into New Zealand’s logistics real estate landscape in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

GMT’s share price has demonstrated resilience amid a broader sector rotation and heightened sensitivity to monetary policy shifts. Currently trading in the NZ$1.92–1.95 range (at the time of writing, May 2025), Goodman has weathered a -12% performance over the past year, positioning itself towards the lower end of its 52-week band (NZ$1.80–NZ$2.24). This retracement follows a multi-year period of outperformance and now appears to reflect overshooting pessimism rather than any structural weakness.

Recent financial headlines, including a major swing to a net profit of NZ$109.6 million (vs. a prior year net loss exceeding NZ$560 million), have catalysed renewed interest from institutional and retail investors alike. Notably, recent distribution increases (+4.8% in FY25) and a well-signalled FY26 guidance upgrade to NZ$6.825c/unit (+5%) have underpinned investor confidence in both income and growth prospects.

Macroeconomically, the logistics and urban warehousing sector continues to benefit in New Zealand from robust e-commerce penetration and the country’s strategic trade position in the Asia-Pacific. Simultaneously, a stabilizing interest rate environment and improved commercial property sentiment provide a favourable backdrop. In this context, Goodman stands out for its operational excellence and growth trajectory.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, GMT’s price action shows multiple signs of base-building and emerging bullish momentum. Key indicators include:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently in neutral territory near 48–52, signalling notable potential for upward movement without immediate overbought risk.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Recently transitioned from a negative to mildly positive stance, hinting at an imminent bullish reversal.
• Moving Averages: The 20-day SMA is converging with the 50-day, with the current price hovering slightly below the 200-day SMA (~NZ$2.00). This confluence often precedes breakout attempts when combined with strengthening volume.
• Support and Resistance: Strong, repeated support has formed at NZ$1.85–1.90, a technical floor reinforced by previous institutional inflows. Overhead resistance is layered around NZ$2.02 and NZ$2.20, with a confirmed close above NZ$2.00 likely to trigger accelerated buying.
• Medium-term structure: The recent formation of higher lows since the March 2025 local bottom underscores an improving trend dynamic and a probable exit from the correction phase.

Such technical confluence suggests that GMT may be entering a new bullish phase, and the current levels could well represent an attractive entry for strategically minded investors positioning ahead of catalysts.

Fundamental Analysis

Goodman Property Trust’s fundamentals continue to impress, reinforcing the thesis for renewed investor focus:

• Revenue and Profitability: FY25 net property income surged by 13.5% to NZ$230.5 million, coupled with operating profits of NZ$125 million (+3%). This, alongside a major rebound to net profit, highlights considerable bottom-line leverage despite past market volatility.
• Dividend Profile: Consistent distribution growth, with a current yield of 3.3–3.4% and a robust payout ratio (~86% of cash earnings), marks GMT as a premier income-generating REIT for NZ investors.
• Valuation Measures: With tangible assets valued at NZ$2.02 per unit and share prices still below asset backing, the current P/NAV ratio implies a meaningful discount. Meanwhile, sector comparisons show that GMT’s valuation metrics (P/E and P/FCF) remain attractive relative to both domestic and APAC REIT peers.
• Structural Strengths: Market leadership in New Zealand logistics property is underpinned by a 99% portfolio occupancy, a stellar 5.6-year weighted lease term, and premium urban locations. Visible rent reversion potential (~21%) and a development pipeline designed to capture data centre and last-mile demand put GMT ahead of the curve.
• Brand and Management: The firm’s experienced leadership, recently reinforced by CEO James Spence, and a proactive, transparent governance model inspire high confidence.

Collectively, these fundamentals justify renewed interest and suggest GMT is undervalued against its intrinsic net asset and cashflow generation capacity.

Volume and Liquidity

Another key indicator of market conviction in GMT’s trajectory is its robust liquidity profile:

• Average Daily Volume: Recent figures consistently around 1.12 million units traded per day—well above average for the NZX property sector—reflect healthy institutional participation and dynamic trading prospects.
• Float Structure: Free float ratios lend themselves to efficient price discovery, with enough depth for sizable investment without significant slippage.
• Implied Liquidity Premium: At current volume and volatility levels (beta 0.59), GMT’s stock maintains low risk characteristics, favourable for tactical accumulation and medium-term holding strategies.

In short, sustained trading activity and transparent price formation signal heightened market confidence and a conducive environment for both entry and rebalancing.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Multiple upcoming catalysts reinforce Goodman’s growth narrative and potential re-rating:

• Major Developments: The launch of Highbrook, a NZ$2.1 billion partnership with a global manager, sets the stage for scale and cashflow uplift. Expansion projects at Waitomokia (up to 110,000 m² logistics space) and Mt Wellington (NZ$93.8 million investment) underscore organic and acquisitive growth.
• Data Centre Expansion: The Penrose data centre initiative (NZ$20.2 million), with 35 MVA connection capability, diversifies income streams and positions GMT to capture secular tech-sector demand.
• ESG Leadership: Strong CDP Climate “B” score, clear carbon emission reduction (-4.1% YOY), and ambitious 2030 environmental objectives offer tangible value to sustainability-focused investors, increasingly a differentiator for REIT sector capital flows.
• Guidance Upgrade: With management targeting cash earnings of ~8.0 cents/unit and rising distributions, sustained distribution growth seems well anchored.
• Macro/Regulatory Tailwinds: As an NZX-listed PIE, GMT’s tax treatment offers an attractive after-tax yield for domestic investors. Meanwhile, global capital’s continued search for stable, yield-generating assets in defensive segments like logistics bodes well for capital inflows.

Each of these catalysts points to clear growth visibility, enhanced diversification, and downside resilience.

Investment Strategies

GMT’s current positioning and outlook make a compelling case for diverse time horizons:

• Short-term: Recent technical basing offers a tactical entry at a discount to both net asset value and consensus price targets (NZ$2.20–2.25, implying 14–17% upside).
• Medium-term: Accumulation into dividend record dates and ahead of development project completions provides the prospect of capitalising on trading momentum and incremental newsflow.
• Long-term: For income-oriented and defensive portfolios, GMT’s track record of distribution growth, best-in-class occupancy, and robust balance sheet [loan-to-value at 31.8%, investment-grade credit (BBB)] favour a “buy-and-hold” allocation for consistent income and inflation hedging.

The optimal entry may be near current support levels (NZ$1.90–1.95), with an eye on technical confirmation of a sustained bullish breakout and before the full impact of new development cashflows and guidance upgrades are priced in.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Goodman Property Trust?

In synthesising all available evidence, Goodman Property Trust stands out for its operational excellence, high-quality asset base, visible catalysts, and robust income profile. The alignment of technical signals, discounted valuation relative to net tangible assets, forward-looking earnings momentum, and superior ESG credentials all suggest that GMT is positioned to deliver both capital growth and income stability.

The fundamentals justify renewed interest, and the stock may be entering a new bullish phase, given both technical and thematic tailwinds. For both institutional and retail investors looking to capture resilient, inflation-protected yield with credible growth, Goodman Property Trust appears to offer an excellent opportunity as the New Zealand logistics property sector enters a new cycle. Thus, GMT deserves serious consideration as a core portfolio holding for those seeking quality, consistency, and strategic exposure to one of the region’s most dynamic REITs.

For investors poised to capitalise on sector leadership, defensive growth, and steadfast income generation, Goodman Property Trust’s current positioning may indeed represent an optimal window for entry as we move toward 2025’s promising landscape.

How to buy Goodman Property Trust stock in New Zealand?

Buying Goodman Property Trust (GMT) stock online is both simple and secure for NZ investors, thanks to regulated brokers operating under strict compliance rules. You can choose between two main methods: spot buying (owning actual shares) or trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which track the stock's price. Each method comes with its own costs, risks, and benefits. Whether you're seeking long-term income or short-term trading opportunities, there’s a broker and method to suit your goals. To help you find the best option, be sure to consult our NZ broker comparison further down the page.

Cash Buying

When you buy Goodman Property Trust shares for cash, you become a direct owner of real units listed on the NZX and benefit from distributions (dividends) and capital growth. With NZ brokers, you typically pay a fixed commission per trade—often between NZ$3 and NZ$15 per order, depending on the platform.

Example: NZ$1,000 Investment

Let’s say the current price is NZ$1.93 per unit. You could purchase about 515 shares (NZ$1,000 minus a NZ$5 brokerage fee gives NZ$995; NZ$995 ÷ NZ$1.93 ≈ 515 shares).

Gain Scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your 515 shares would now be worth NZ$1,100.
Result: That’s a NZ$100 gross gain, or +10% on your original investment (excluding fees and taxes).

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) allow you to speculate on Goodman Property Trust’s price movements without owning the actual shares. CFDs are offered by specialist brokers and come with different fee structures—typically a small spread (the difference between buy and sell price), plus overnight financing charges if you hold positions beyond each trading day.

Example: NZ$1,000 and 5x Leverage

By opening a CFD position with 5x leverage, your NZ$1,000 deposit gives you NZ$5,000 of exposure to GMT shares.

Gain Scenario: If GMT stock rises by 8%, your position grows by 8% × 5 = 40%, resulting in a NZ$400 gain on your NZ$1,000 capital (not including spreads or any overnight fees).

Final Advice

Before investing, it’s essential to carefully compare broker fees, trading platforms, and terms to find the solution best suited to your needs. Whether you choose traditional share ownership for long-term growth and dividends, or prefer the flexibility and leverage of CFDs for active trading, the right method depends on your financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon. For a detailed broker comparison, see the table provided further down the page.

Our 7 tips for buying Goodman Property Trust stock

The latest news about Goodman Property Trust

Goodman Property Trust has reported a strong financial turnaround in its latest full-year results to March 2025. The Trust posted a net profit of NZ$109.6 million for FY25, a dramatic rebound from the previous year’s net loss of NZ$564.9 million, underscoring a robust recovery in New Zealand’s logistics real estate sector. Net property income rose by 13.5% to NZ$230.5 million, cash earnings per unit increased by 5.2%, and like-for-like rental growth reached 7.3%, reflecting resilient tenant demand and successful contract renegotiations. High occupancy at 99% and an average lease term of 5.6 years reinforce a defensive, income-generating asset profile highly regarded by local institutional investors.

The Trust has guided for increasing distributions and earnings, providing visible income growth for New Zealand investors. For FY26, Goodman’s board forecasts a distribution of 6.825 cents per unit, up 5% from FY25, and cash earnings close to 8.0 cents per unit. Distribution policy remains conservative, with a payout ratio of 86% of cash earnings, ensuring ongoing reinvestment and balance sheet discipline. The Trust’s PIE status continues to benefit local investors through favourable, investor-specific tax treatment.

Major strategic developments have been delivered, including sustainability-focused logistics projects and expansion into new business segments. Three new Green Star-certified developments valued at NZ$214.8 million have been completed, adding premium, energy-efficient space in greater Auckland. Notably, Goodman has invested NZ$20.2 million in data centre infrastructure at Penrose and announced a strategic partnership to launch the NZ$2.1 billion Highbrook fund. These initiatives position Goodman to capture growing demand from both e-commerce and cloud infrastructure, supporting long-term rental reversion and capital growth in a structurally attractive market.

Goodman maintains robust financial health, underpinned by conservative gearing and ongoing investment grade ratings. The latest loan-to-value ratio stands at 31.8%, significantly below sector averages, and 79.8% of interest costs are hedged for the next 12 months, limiting earnings volatility from macroeconomic shocks. S&P Global reaffirmed the Trust’s BBB credit rating, reflecting prudent capital management and ensuring ready access to credit for future development opportunities, which is especially key given current market uncertainties.

ESG credentials and operational excellence further differentiate Goodman among NZX-listed REITs. The Trust demonstrated a 4.1% reduction in emissions year-on-year, has a CDP score of B for climate initiatives, and continues to set new carbon reduction targets for 2030. A high-quality, urban-focused logistics portfolio—serving over 215 major tenants—aligns with e-commerce-driven structural demand, ensuring recurring revenues and upside potential from rent reviews, while positioning the Trust as an ESG-conscious leader in New Zealand’s property market.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.