Should I buy Autodesk stock in 2025? NZ Analysis & Forecast

What is Autodesk?

How much is the Autodesk stock?

The price of Autodesk stock is falling this week. As of now, ADSK is trading at $297.00 USD, reflecting a 24-hour decrease of 0.75% and a weekly change of -0.68%. The company’s market capitalisation stands at $64.02 billion, with an average daily volume over the past three months of 1.72 million shares. Autodesk’s current P/E ratio is 63.70, with no dividend yield, and the stock’s beta is 1.47, indicating moderately higher volatility compared to the broader market. Investors in New Zealand should note that while recent performance has been subdued, Autodesk’s long-term growth potential and strong market position continue to make it a stock to watch closely.

Our full analysis on the Autodesk stock

Having thoroughly examined Autodesk’s latest quarterly results, the stock’s evolution over the past three years, and an extensive range of analytical sources—including financial metrics, technical signals, market dynamics, and competitive intelligence—our proprietary scoring models indicate that Autodesk (ADSK) is navigating an intriguing inflection point. The synthesis of these datasets reveals a convergence of favourable structural and cyclical elements. So, why might Autodesk stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global technology software sector as we move into 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Autodesk’s shares, trading at $297 as of 29 May 2025, have displayed notable resilience amid a volatile macroeconomic environment, particularly for high-growth technology names. While the 12-month performance reflects a material pullback (-48.55%), this reset has effectively recalibrated valuation multiples to far more attractive levels relative to sector peers. Importantly, over the most recent quarter, Autodesk has outpaced expectations with Q1 FY2026 revenues of $1.63 billion, showing robust annual growth of 15%.

Markets responded positively to Autodesk’s latest earnings release, which featured a substantial guidance upgrade, outperformance of analyst EPS targets ($2.29 adjusted EPS vs. $2.15 consensus), and clear evidence of accelerating demand in core verticals. These positive developments complement the recent agreement with Starboard Value, an influential activist, culminating in governance enhancements and a more shareholder-aligned board—an event widely interpreted as beneficial for long-term value creation.

Broader sector dynamics further reinforce Autodesk’s setup. The rapid momentum behind digital transformation, AI adoption, and cloud-based platforms supports robust end-market demand, especially across the design, engineering, and construction ecosystems where Autodesk commands leading market share. With macroeconomic expectations stabilising and interest rate headwinds easing, the market landscape for enterprise software in 2025 appears substantially more constructive—an environment that positions seasoned industry leaders such as Autodesk to outperform.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, Autodesk exhibits increasingly constructive signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 67.29, a neutral bias just below overbought territory, affirming strong yet measured accumulation after the recent correction. The MACD (12,26,9) prints a bullish reading of 7.43, suggesting upward price momentum is gaining traction.

These averages stack below the current share price, acting as substantial support levels. The zone between $293.18 and $295.83 has repeatedly affirmed its validity as a robust support base—forming a technical floor from which several upward moves have recently originated. Immediate resistance is defined at the 52-week high of $326.62, offering a clear upside technical target.

Consensus from technical aggregate models is overwhelmingly bullish, with 16 “strong buy” signals outnumbering any bearish indicators. Short- and medium-term momentum is therefore highly favourable, suggesting Autodesk may be entering an extended bullish phase—timing that appears propitious for investors seeking new positions at technically attractive entries.

Fundamental Analysis

The fundamental backdrop for Autodesk is arguably the most compelling in several years. Fiscal Q1 2026 showcased strength across nearly every key metric:

• Revenue: $1.63 billion in the latest quarter (+15% y/y)
• Operating Margin (non-GAAP): 37%
• EPS: $2.29 (vs. $2.15 expected)

Crucially, Autodesk’s growth remains broad-based, driven by surging adoption of its cloud-native platforms and increasing wallet share within both construction and industrial design client bases. The transition to more recurrent, subscription-driven revenue streams further underpins visibility and resilience.

In terms of valuation, Autodesk’s forward P/E of 63.70, while higher than broad-market averages, appears justified for a category-defining software company with consistent double-digit revenue growth. The analyst consensus price target of $335.17, implying a further 12.85% upside from current levels, highlights growing confidence in the company’s earnings trajectory. Moreover, Autodesk’s continued investment in artificial intelligence, next-gen automation, and sustainability-centric solutions reinforces its leadership, brand equity, and structural growth prospects—critical drivers in an increasingly competitive market.

Volume and Liquidity

Autodesk remains one of the most liquid equities on the NASDAQ, with a robust 65-day average daily trading volume of 1.72 million shares. Its sizable float (213.37 million shares out of 213.94 million outstanding) ensures efficient market pricing and supports dynamic valuation. The sustained liquidity profile underlines strong institutional involvement and consistently high market confidence—key qualities for both tactical and long-term investors operating from New Zealand and other international markets.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several potent catalysts reinforce Autodesk’s positive outlook:

• Strategic Acceleration to the Cloud and AI: The migration of core platforms to the cloud, alongside the integration of advanced AI features, is both deepening Autodesk's competitive moat and enlarging its addressable market—driving stickier customer relationships and higher-margin revenue streams.
• Transactional Revenue Model: The rollout of a new transactional model contributed $78 million in Q1 alone, indicating a sustainable new engine of top-line expansion.
• Sector Leadership: Autodesk’s undisputed strength in 3D design and engineering software makes it a core technology provider for construction and industrial transformation—sectors with highly visible, multi-year growth runways.
• Positive Governance Changes: Engagement with Starboard Value has led to governance enhancements, aligning board oversight with strategic growth objectives and boosting credibility with institutional shareholders.
• Macro Tailwinds: The global shift towards digitisation in construction, infrastructure, and manufacturing—amplified by government incentives for productivity and sustainability initiatives—creates further growth vectors, especially relevant for NZ-based investors monitoring exposure to infrastructure cycles.
• Optimistic Analyst Sentiment: The consensus remains staunchly bullish, with “Buy” ratings prevailing and improved annual guidance reflecting higher operational confidence.

Investment Strategies

Given Autodesk’s current setup, several strategies present themselves for investors seeking exposure:

• Short-Term Tactical Entry: For those seeking near-term upside, entering around the technically significant support zone of $293–$296, with stop-losses just below, positions investors ahead of potential breakouts and Q2 catalysts.
• Medium-Term Momentum Play: The alignment of price above all major moving averages and the positive MACD trend supports a medium-term holding strategy, targeting the $326–$335 resistance region, particularly as AI and cloud product launches escalate.
• Long-Term Core Position Building: For investors with a longer horizon, Autodesk’s pivot towards high-value recurring revenue and sector leadership in digital construction and design present a compelling case for dollar-cost averaging. As NZ’s infrastructure investments mirror global digitisation, holding Autodesk aligns portfolios with these structural shifts.

Ideal positioning can thus be achieved either on pullbacks into the defined support zone, or in anticipation of earnings and product-related catalysts later in FY2026. Regardless of approach, the risk/reward profile at current levels is markedly more attractive than at prior highs, further supported by a rejuvenated management and governance framework.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Autodesk?

Autodesk stands at a compelling juncture: a global software blue chip delivering accelerating revenue growth, top-tier operating margins, and clear evidence of renewed execution discipline. Structural transitions to the cloud, AI integration, and innovative product models are catalysing a new era of growth, while recent governance enhancements and cost optimisation demonstrate prudent capital stewardship.

Technically, the confluence of support beneath current prices, bullish momentum signals, and overwhelming analyst confidence all point to the likelihood that Autodesk may be embarking on a new upward cycle. Foreseeable catalysts—from further cloud adoption to sector tailwinds and upgraded guidance—should continue to draw institutional and retail attention. For NZ investors seeking exposure to the heart of global technological transformation, Autodesk thus seems to represent an excellent opportunity for both tactical and strategic positioning.

With a uniquely robust platform for growth, a blue-chip customer base, and a management team responsive to both innovation and shareholder value, Autodesk’s risk-reward dynamic appears highly attractive heading into 2025 and beyond. The evidence strongly supports renewed interest in the stock as a core component of any forward-looking technology portfolio. For investors who value market leaders with proven resilience, Autodesk not only justifies consideration but may be exceptionally well-placed as the technology sector’s next strategic outperformer.

How to buy Autodesk stock in New Zealand?

Buying Autodesk (ADSK) shares online as a New Zealand investor is simple, secure, and accessible thanks to regulated online brokers. Two main methods are available: you can purchase the shares directly on the US market (spot buying), or you can trade Contracts for Difference (CFDs) to speculate on the price without owning the actual stock. Each method offers distinct advantages in terms of cost, flexibility, and personal objectives. To help you choose the right approach, a detailed broker comparison is provided further down this page.

Spot buying

Spot buying—or cash purchase—means you directly acquire real Autodesk shares in your name via an online broker connected to US markets. With this method, your main fees are a small fixed commission per transaction, typically ranging from NZ$5 to NZ$15 per order on most NZ-facing broker platforms.

Example

Suppose the Autodesk share price is US$297 (around NZ$496, at 1 NZD = 0.599 USD). With NZ$1,000, you could buy roughly 2 shares (NZ$992), after factoring a NZ$5 brokerage commission.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If Autodesk’s share price rises 10%, your 2 shares climb to a total value of NZ$1,100.
Result: This is a NZ$100 gross gain—+10% return on your investment (excluding exchange rate changes).

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) allow you to speculate on Autodesk’s share price movements without owning the stock. This product is offered by CFD brokers, and lets you use leverage to increase your exposure. Common fees include the spread (difference between buy and sell price) and overnight financing if you hold positions beyond the trading day.

Example

You open a CFD position on Autodesk with a NZ$1,000 stake and use 5x leverage, granting you NZ$5,000 in market exposure.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If Autodesk’s share price increases by 8%, your position would generate a 40% gain (8% × 5 leverage).
Result: You would earn NZ$400 profit on your initial NZ$1,000 (before fees and possible currency conversion).

Final advice

Before buying Autodesk shares or trading via CFDs, it’s important to compare each broker’s fees, available markets, and investor protections. Your choice should always align with your investment goals, risk profile, and preferred exposure. Spot buying may suit those focused on long-term holding, while CFDs offer flexibility and leverage for more active traders. You’ll find a comprehensive broker comparison further down this page to help guide your decision.

Our 7 tips for buying Autodesk stock

The latest news about Autodesk

Autodesk’s first quarter 2026 results have surpassed analyst expectations, prompting a raised annual guidance. On 29 May 2025, Autodesk reported Q1 revenues of $1.63 billion, reflecting 15% year-on-year growth, a 37% non-GAAP operating margin, and an adjusted earnings per share of $2.29—significantly beating consensus estimates of $2.15. The company subsequently lifted its full-year revenue outlook, now expecting between $6.925 and $6.995 billion, indicating robust ongoing business momentum. This positive financial trajectory is highly relevant for New Zealand investors and professionals, as local adoption of Autodesk’s cloud-based design solutions continues to increase within the region's construction and infrastructure sectors, which are currently experiencing substantial investment and digital transformation.

The technical outlook for Autodesk remains strongly positive, with consensus ratings reinforcing a “Strong Buy” recommendation. As of the latest analysis, all primary moving average indicators (20, 50, 100, and 200 days) show buy signals, and the MACD also supports a bullish stance. The RSI stands at a neutral 67.29, indicating there is still room before overbought conditions are reached. Notably, the current price hovers near a robust support zone between $293.18 and $295.83, while facing resistance at $326.62. For New Zealand investors trading US equities or using passive investment vehicles holding ADSK, these signals are particularly useful for timing entries and exits in a landscape marked by exchange-rate fluctuations and global tech sector volatility.

Autodesk’s strategic pivot toward cloud and artificial intelligence platforms offers direct benefits to New Zealand’s evolving digital design ecosystem. The company’s transition to a cloud-first, AI-powered offering is already contributing meaningfully—$78 million in Q1 alone—from new transactional models. This aligns closely with trends in the New Zealand market, where local AEC (Architecture, Engineering, and Construction) firms are increasingly adopting SaaS-based design tools to drive productivity and compliance with national infrastructure and sustainability mandates. As the country accelerates its digital transformation journey, Autodesk’s sector leadership and regional initiatives, including training partnerships and software licensing tailored for Pacific and Australasian customers, further solidify its relevance.

Recent governance enhancements, including the appointment of two new independent directors, position Autodesk for more disciplined execution and innovation. Following engagement with activist investor Starboard Value in April 2025, Autodesk concluded an agreement leading to strategic board refreshment. This bolsters governance oversight and supports accelerated implementation of operational improvements. Such developments are favorably viewed by global institutional investors, including those with exposure through New Zealand pension and managed funds, as they reduce execution risk amidst rapid industry change and complex international regulatory demands.

The upbeat sentiment among market analysts is matched by optimistic management guidance and a clear commitment to disciplined capital allocation. Analysts project a 12.85% upside from current levels, with a consensus price objective of $335.17 and a consistent "Buy" rating. This, coupled with a proactive focus on cloud deployment and AI augmentation, continuous product innovation, and a sound response to activist oversight, is expected to further underpin Autodesk’s growth in global markets—directly impacting New Zealand stakeholders tied to the built environment, digital transformation programs, or cross-listed investment products.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.