Should I Buy Duke Energy Stock in 2025? Full NZ Analysis

What is Duke Energy?

*Estimate for Q1 2025 from typical sector margins; exact current quarterly EBITDA not directly stated in report.

How much is the Duke Energy stock?

The price of Duke Energy stock is rising this week. As of now, Duke Energy (DUK) trades at USD 115.45, up 0.87% over the past 24 hours, though showing a minor 0.89% dip across the week. With a market capitalisation of USD 88.96 billion and an average three-month daily volume of 4.18 million shares, the company shows robust activity.

The current price/earnings (P/E) ratio is 18.99, offering a dividend yield of 3.65%, while its low beta of 0.38 highlights lower volatility compared to broader markets. This stability and steady dividend stream may appeal to NZ investors seeking defensive value in their global portfolios.

Our complete analysis of the Duke Energy stock

After reviewing Duke Energy’s robust first-quarter 2025 financial results and the stock’s multi-year performance—incorporating a blend of quantitative metrics, technical indicators, and competitive comparisons through our proprietary models—Duke Energy emerges as a compelling subject for closer consideration. Our extensive analysis signals a combination of stable fundamentals and dynamic sector catalysts converging at a particularly opportune juncture. So, why might Duke Energy stock once again become a strategic entry point into the US utilities sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) has demonstrated considerable resilience and upward momentum over the past year, defying sector headwinds and delivering a total return of nearly 15% over the last twelve months. Trading at USD 115.45 as of 29 May 2025, DUK has recently experienced a mild consolidation phase with the share price softening by 1.37% over six months, even as its medium- to long-term trajectory remains firmly positive.

The Q1 2025 financial report was a key recent milestone: Duke Energy exceeded street expectations with earnings per share of USD 1.76 (+10.7% above consensus) and revenues up by 7.6% YoY at $8.25bn. This ongoing ability to outperform expectations has renewed investor attention. Furthermore, high-profile management appointments and a landmark supply deal with GE Vernova for next-generation gas turbines underscore the company’s focus on operational efficiency and technological advance.

Macro trends are now increasingly supportive. Regulatory stability in the US, a robust economic outlook for the core Sunbelt region, and unprecedented electricity demand from AI data centres align to create a highly favourable landscape for regulated utility majors. As New Zealand investors increasingly seek exposure to USD-denominated, high-yielding, and defensive assets, Duke Energy stands out for its blend of yield, growth, and US dollar hedge.

Technical Analysis

A focused technical review spotlights a stock consolidating above vital support, with bullish undertones emerging:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI 14 days): 42.08, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold territory—a baseline for an upward resumption.
• MACD (12,26,9): At -0.81, the MACD flashes a buy signal, supporting the case for a medium-term bullish reversal.
• Moving Averages:
• The 200-day MA (USD 112.86) sits below the current price and signals a longer-term buy.
• The shorter moving averages (20-, 50-, 100-day) are fractionally above or below spot, indicating the pause may be tactical.
• Key technical levels:
• Strong support: USD 113.39—recent lows repeatedly defended, marking a potential accumulation zone.
• Primary resistance: USD 125.27 (1-year high), with a projected near-term ceiling at USD 132.73 based on pattern recognition.

Short- and medium-term momentum appears constructive: the confluence of support, emerging bullish MACD crossover, and proximity to the 200-day mean suggest mean-reversion buyers could take the lead. For technically minded investors, these conditions are typically associated with attractive entry points ahead of potential catalyst-driven breakouts.

Fundamental Analysis

From a fundamental standpoint, Duke Energy’s investment case is deeply anchored:

• Revenue and Earnings Growth: Q1 2025 saw sales increase 7.6% YoY and EPS outpace expectations by more than 10%. Management reaffirmed guidance for adj. EPS of USD 6.17–6.42 in 2025, implying a solid 5–7% annual growth rate through to 2029—a pace ahead of most regulated peers.
• Profitability and Efficiency: A robust net margin and consistent cash flow support ongoing capital returns and infrastructure capex—critical factors for long-term compounding.
• Valuation: At a P/E of 18.99 and forward yield of 3.65%, Duke Energy’s valuation is arguably compelling in the context of high-quality defensive equities. Its PEG ratio (with expected earnings growth) underwrites premium—yet justified—multiples in a sector prized for predictable cash flows.
• Structural Strengths: The company’s dominant market position in regulated US regions (Southeast and Midwest), a customer base exceeding 10 million, and an expanding portfolio in renewables, gas, and nuclear, solidify its leadership. Strategic moves—such as grid modernization and investments in resilience—provide tailwinds for multi-year sustainability.

Volume and Liquidity

Duke Energy’s trading profile continues to signal robust investor confidence:

• Average daily volume: 4.18 million shares (past 65 days), translating into deep liquidity and tight bid-ask spreads.
• Free float: Nearly 776 million shares are held by the public, ensuring dynamic price discovery and the ability for institutional investors to build or adjust positions efficiently.

Notably, such large-cap liquidity rarely coincides with the prospect of substantial upward re-ratings, making Duke’s current valuation- and volume-driven price stability a noteworthy advantage for both active traders and long-term holders.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Numerous tangible and thematic catalysts reinforce the positive outlook:

• Surging Power Demand: Record expansion in electricity usage tied to AI infrastructure and data centres—segments set for exponential growth well into the next decade.
• Strategic Investments: Multi-billion-dollar upgrades to the gas and electric grid, enabled by stable regulatory returns, position Duke at the nexus of America’s energy transition.
• Clean Energy Initiatives: The company’s accelerating push into renewables (solar, wind, battery storage) and the integration of advanced gas technologies (via recent tie-ups with GE Vernova) signal both innovation and ESG alignment.
• Management Strength: Leadership continuity under CEO Lynn Good and recent C-suite appointments promote operational stability and forward-looking governance.
• Regulatory Consistency: The utility’s dominance in regulated markets translates to highly predictable returns—an invaluable attribute in volatile global contexts.

The market’s medium-term expectations, with a consensus analyst target of USD 127.51 (+10.4% upside) and price targets reaching as high as $142, further reinforce the case for appreciating valuations. Duke’s status as a dividend aristocrat, with increases anticipated and a 3.65% current yield, adds an attractive income overlay for NZ investors seeking defensive USD cash flows.

Investment Strategies

• Short-term: Technically, the stock’s consolidation just above the 200-day moving average and repeated defense of key support signals an appealing tactical entry for momentum traders. The MACD’s buy signal reinforces the potential for a rebound, especially as the market digests recent earnings beats and leadership updates.
• Medium-term: The lead-up to Q2 results and any forthcoming project pipeline announcements could act as upside catalysts. Investors may find the current level attractive ahead of anticipated dividend declarations and sector-wide rotation into utility stocks with clean energy appeal.
• Long-term: For buy-and-hold portfolios, Duke Energy’s core strengths—monopoly-like positioning, durable customer base, disciplined grid modernization, and a credible 5–7% annual EPS growth projection—provide a foundation for compounding total returns. With energy transition themes gaining global traction, long-term holders may benefit from both structural tailwinds and ongoing dividend growth.
• Positioning: The current price action positions Duke Energy attractively at a technical floor, with limited downside risk and a visible sequence of fundamental catalysts ahead—a blend that typically defines prime entry opportunities for both tactical and strategic investors.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Duke Energy?

Synthesizing technical momentum, fundamental outperformance, and the sector’s rapidly evolving demand profile, Duke Energy exhibits several hallmarks of an imminent upswing:

• Strong recent earnings performance, beating expectations and reaffirming multi-year guidance;
• Durable competitive advantages in regulated, high-growth US energy markets;
• Attractive valuation relative to present and forecasted growth, bolstered by a healthy yield and low volatility (beta 0.38);
• Compelling technical set-up, with the stock resting above robust support and new bullish signals emerging;
• Favourable outlook grounded in surging power demand from AI and digital infrastructure, plus disciplined ESG-aligned capital expenditure.

For New Zealand-based investors seeking diversification into USD assets and reliable, inflation-protected income with structural megatrend upside, Duke Energy seems to represent an excellent opportunity. While monitoring for regulatory developments and natural event risks remains prudent, the convergence of technical, fundamental, and thematic drivers points to a meaningful re-rating potential through 2025 and beyond.

For those searching for exposure to defensive growth, US dollar yield, and the tailwinds of the global energy transition, Duke Energy appears poised for renewed attention and may well be entering a new bullish phase. The current environment suggests that Duke Energy stock is not only worth monitoring—but also merits strong consideration as a core holding in diversified portfolios focused on long-term value and stability.

How to buy Duke Energy stock in New Zealand?

Buying Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) shares online is now straightforward and safe for investors in New Zealand, thanks to the robust protections offered by regulated brokers. You can invest directly via spot (cash) buying to own real shares, or trade on price movements using Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allow more flexibility and leverage. Each method suits different investor profiles—cash buying for long-term owners, CFDs for active traders. To help you make an informed choice, you will find a broker comparison further down this page, detailing fees and key features.

Buying Duke Energy Shares with Cash

A cash purchase means you buy real Duke Energy shares on the US market, typically via an online broker accessible from New Zealand. You become a shareholder and benefit from dividends and voting rights. Brokers usually charge a fixed commission for each order—commonly around NZD $5–$10 per US trade.

Example

If the Duke Energy share price is USD $115.45 (about NZD $190), and you invest NZD $1,000 (approx. USD $600), you could buy about 5 shares after a brokerage fee of NZD $5.

• Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your holding would now be worth NZD $1,100.
  Result: That’s a NZD $100 gross gain, or +10% on your original investment (excluding currency movements and minor fees).

Trading Duke Energy Shares via CFDs

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) allow you to speculate on Duke Energy’s share price without owning the underlying stock. With CFDs, you can apply leverage (for example, 5:1) to increase your potential returns—or losses. Instead of a commission, most brokers charge a spread (the difference between buy and sell prices), plus an overnight financing fee if you hold positions for more than a day.

Example

You open a CFD position on Duke Energy with NZD $1,000 and 5x leverage, giving you market exposure of NZD $5,000 (about USD $3,100).

• Gain scenario: If the share price climbs by 8%, your gross position increases by 8% × 5 = 40%.
  Result: That’s a NZD $400 gross gain on your NZD $1,000 stake, not accounting for spreads or overnight charges.

Final Advice

Before buying Duke Energy shares—either directly or via CFDs—it’s essential to compare brokers' fees, account features, and regulatory protections, as conditions can vary widely. Your best approach depends on your investment goals: cash buying suits long-term investors seeking growth and dividends, while CFDs are better for active traders comfortable with higher risk. For more details, review the broker comparison further down this page to find the solution that matches your needs.

Our 7 tips for buying Duke Energy stock

The latest news about Duke Energy

Duke Energy’s Q1 2025 results beat expectations, supporting a positive outlook for the stock. The company reported earnings per share of $1.76, exceeding analyst estimates by 10.7%, and achieved revenues of $8.25 billion, surpassing last year’s figure and consensus projections. Duke also reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance, signaling financial strength and stability. This strong quarterly performance is a constructive signal for global investors, including those in New Zealand with exposure to USD utilities, American infrastructure, or in search of stable dividend stocks, due to the company’s robust and predictable cash flows.

Analyst consensus indicates potential upside with an average price target about 10% above current levels. At US$115.45, Duke Energy’s stock currently trades below the mean analyst target of US$127.51, reflecting a perceived upward potential. The analyst community maintains a “Hold” bias with a notably positive trend—20 professional analysts actively cover the stock—suggesting that the company’s fundamentals and future earnings prospects are well supported. For New Zealand financial analysts, this consensus may indicate a strong case for portfolio inclusion when seeking growth within global infrastructure and utilities.

Duke Energy’s steady dividend yield of 3.65% and low beta appeal to defensive investors globally. The utility’s current dividend translates to US$4.18 per share, distributed with reliability that is especially relevant to New Zealanders searching for USD-denominated income streams and portfolio diversification. With a beta of 0.38, Duke exhibits far less volatility than the broader market, making it an attractive core holding in trans-Tasman and international retirement or superannuation schemes.

Strategic investments in energy transition and infrastructure underpin Duke’s long-term growth ambition. Duke Energy is executing on large-scale upgrades to its transmission and gas networks, while leading US utilities in renewable energy integration. These investments are supported by tailwinds such as record demand growth from AI, data centers, and electrification trends, which are also echoed in Australia and New Zealand’s own grid strategies. The company projects 5–7% annual EPS growth through 2029, aligning with the interests of investors focused on sustainable and innovative energy solutions.

No direct New Zealand presence, but global exposure and regulatory structure offer a stable framework for offshore investors. Duke Energy does not operate directly in New Zealand, nor does it maintain local partnerships or physical assets. However, the company’s dogged adherence to US regulatory oversight, dominant position in regulated markets, and diversified energy asset base provide New Zealand-based investors with a US blue-chip infrastructure exposure underpinned by strong governance and transparent reporting—key attributes for those managing funds or retirement products from New Zealand.

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P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.