Should I buy Occidental Petroleum stock in 2025? (For NZ Investors)

What is Occidental Petroleum?

How much is the Occidental Petroleum stock?

The price of Occidental Petroleum stock is rising this week. Currently trading at 41.46 USD, Occidental shares have gained 0.83% in the past 24 hours and are up 2.75% over the past week. With a market capitalisation of 40.8 billion USD and an average 3-month daily volume of 12.87 million shares, the stock maintains a P/E ratio of 16.65 and a dividend yield of 2.33%. Occidental’s beta stands at 0.81, reflecting moderate volatility relative to the market. With recent positive momentum, NZ investors may find its stable performance and reliable dividends particularly appealing amidst energy sector swings.

Our full analysis on Occidental Petroleum stock

Having rigorously reviewed Occidental Petroleum’s latest financial results and stock performance across the past three years, we leveraged a blend of financial metrics, technical signals, market trends, and competitive positioning, all processed via advanced proprietary algorithms. This multidimensional analysis highlights key trends underpinning the company’s valuation, operational strengths, and future prospects. So, why might Occidental Petroleum stock once again represent a strategic entry point into the global energy sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) currently trades at USD 41.46 (as of 30 May 2025), following a modest intraday gain of +0.83% and a weekly advance of +2.75%. While the stock has faced a 6-month decline of 18.03% and is down 32.17% over the past year, this pullback has opened a notable valuation gap vis-à-vis both historical pricing and sector peers. The 52-week trading range—USD 34.78 to USD 64.76—illustrates substantial volatility, yet also signals upside potential as price gravitates near the lower bound.

On the positive side, Occidental delivered a robust Q1 2025 earnings beat, posting revenue of USD 6.84 billion (4.27% above consensus) and an EPS of USD 0.87 (a 19.18% positive surprise). Strategic actions—most notably the accretive acquisition of Carbon Engineering and continued deleveraging—have fortified Occidental’s balance sheet. This, set against a sector backdrop of resurgent oil and gas demand fueled by global economic reopening and an increasingly strategic focus on North American energy resilience, casts Occidental in a favorable light for contrarian investors.

Technical Analysis

• Key moving averages: The 20-day moving average (USD 41.47) and 50-day moving average (USD 42.57) converge near current price, suggesting price consolidation and potential for a trend reversal. The longer-term 200-day average sits materially higher at USD 48.54, highlighting mean reversion potential as sentiment shifts.
• Oscillators: The 14-day RSI reads 47.46—neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. MACD sits at 0.02, showing only a faint bearish bias, with no significant downside momentum detected.
• Support and resistance: USD 40.88 has emerged as a robust support, tested recently and holding, while a resistance band in the USD 42.53–43.58 range appears within reach should bullish momentum continue. If that upper boundary is breached, a further upswing could materialize.
• Momentum: The stability of the RSI and consolidation near major moving averages suggest short-term sellers may be exhausted, setting the stage for a bullish phase if supported by incremental buying volume.

Combined, these technical factors indicate OXY shares seem to be stabilising at a potential cyclical low, providing a well-timed opportunity for entry, especially ahead of further upside catalysts.

Fundamental Analysis

Occidental’s fundamental profile continues to impress across several axes:

Revenue, Profitability, and Expansion

• Q1 2025 performance capped a series of outperformance events, with sales and profitability exceeding even optimistic forecasts. Revenue of USD 6.84 billion and EPS of USD 0.87 both surpassed expectations, demonstrating resilient operating leverage.
• Free cash flow remains robust (USD 3.0 billion in Q1 2025), supporting ongoing debt reduction—USD 2.3 billion already repaid in 2025—and asset sales (USD 1.3 billion realized in Q1), enabling further balance sheet strengthening.

Valuation

• P/E (TTM) stands at 16.65, below many historical averages and relative sector darlings, implying an attractive valuation for a diversified energy major.
• Dividend yield at 2.33% is competitive, particularly in a climate of global rate uncertainty, and offers an appealing total return profile for NZ-based income-focused investors.
• Consensus analyst target price of USD 49.54 reflects nearly 20% upside from current levels, supported by both margin expansion and forward growth initiatives.

Structural Strengths

• Dominance in the Permian Basin ensures access to the lowest cost barrels in the US—a critical advantage amid commodity market volatility.
• Pioneering position in carbon capture and decarbonisation technologies (bolstered by the USD 1.1 billion Carbon Engineering acquisition and the application of AI in CO₂ injection) creates a structural moat as regulators and industry shift focus toward sustainable energy practices.
• Endorsement by Berkshire Hathaway (28.2% stake), with Warren Buffett steadily increasing holdings, adds further credibility and indicates institutional confidence in Occidental’s vision.

These intertwined factors underline Occidental Petroleum’s capacity to generate value through multiple business cycles, supporting a fundamentally compelling investment thesis from both a valuation and quality standpoint.

Volume and Liquidity

• Three-month average daily trading volume stands at 12.87 million shares, signifying deep liquidity and an ability for institutional investors to efficiently access the stock.
• Nearly 1 billion shares outstanding with substantial public float (Berkshire holding aside) ensures an open and dynamic market.
• Low 5-year beta of 0.81 underscores defensive characteristics in contrast to more volatile energy names—OXY is less prone to extreme swings and offers sound risk management properties.

These dynamics reinforce Occidental’s appeal as a cornerstone for energy-sector allocators seeking both stability and the optionality of upside re-rating.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

• Technological advancement: Integration of AI-driven CO₂ injection technologies and large-scale carbon capture facilities positions Occidental at the leading edge of energy transition solutions, attracting incremental investor interest as ESG themes intensify.
• Scale and reserves: With 1,327 thousand barrels of oil equivalent produced daily (2024 average) and 4 billion BOE of proven reserves, Occidental is positioned to increase both volume and cash flow as commodities markets recover.
• Strategic backing: Warren Buffett’s continued accumulation affirms the underlying value and strategic potential seen in Occidental—even during cyclical downturns.
• Macroeconomic tailwinds: Global demand for US hydrocarbons, coupled with regional supply constraints, should provide a constructive backdrop for price realisation.
• De-risked balance sheet: Rapid debt repayments, asset sales, and robust free cash flow generation reduce financial risk and free up capital for growth initiatives or shareholder returns.

Collectively, these elements may drive a bullish rerating over coming quarters—especially as Occidental moves from recovery mode to delivering on its decarbonisation goals and production growth targets.

Investment Strategies

• Short term: The stock is stabilising at cycle lows, just above a resilient support level (USD 40.88), with minimal technical downside. Entry now positions investors for outperformance if upward momentum resumes and resistance at USD 43.58 is overtaken.
• Medium term: Upcoming catalysts—potential positive news on further debt paydowns, operational milestones in AI-driven production, or policy developments favouring domestic hydrocarbons—could drive a strong technical breakout. Layered accumulation during periods of low volatility appears justified.
• Long term: The secular leadership in carbon capture and the robust partnership with Berkshire Hathaway set Occidental apart, providing the durability needed to weather commodity cycles and regulatory transitions. The 2.33% dividend yield offers a material kicker for patient holders, while the attractive P/E suggests room for multiple expansion as earnings power builds.

For New Zealand-based investors seeking global portfolio diversification, OXY therefore stands out as a flexible tool—equally suitable for tactical trades or for anchoring long-term energy allocations.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Occidental Petroleum?

• Attractive entry valuation and 20% consensus upside
• Clear technical support at current levels, with bullish reversal potential
• Solid fundamentals, including outperformance on revenue and earnings, strategic innovation in carbon capture, and strong free cash flow
• High trading liquidity and institutional validation from Berkshire Hathaway
• Multiple compelling growth catalysts on both operational and ESG fronts

While energy sector volatility should always be acknowledged, the evidence increasingly indicates Occidental Petroleum may be entering a new bullish phase. The company’s combination of cost discipline, pioneering technology adoption, and credible sponsorship at the board level all contribute to a highly favourable risk-reward profile.

As the sector pivots towards decarbonisation and sustainable energy leadership, Occidental appears uniquely placed to capture structural upside—making this juncture seem especially opportune for those seeking exposure to global energy transformation. For investors combining discipline with ambition, Occidental Petroleum’s current lows and future prospects seem to represent an excellent opportunity to reconsider strategic positioning in the portfolio.

How to buy Occidental Petroleum stock in New Zealand?

Buying shares in Occidental Petroleum (OXY) online is straightforward and secure when using a regulated stock broker. Whether you’re a first-time investor or looking to diversify, you can choose between two main methods: direct spot buying (owning the actual shares) or trading via Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which let you speculate on price movements without owning the stock. Each approach has its own benefits and risks. Below, we delve into how both methods work and what fees to expect, followed by a broker comparison to help you find the platform best suited to your needs.

Spot Buying

Spot buying means purchasing physical Occidental Petroleum shares, making you an actual shareholder. This is the classic way to invest, suitable for medium- to long-term investors seeking potential share price appreciation and dividends. For New Zealand investors, online brokers typically quote fees in New Zealand dollars (NZD). Most platforms charge a fixed brokerage commission per trade—commonly around NZ$5–NZ$15—plus potential minor currency conversion costs, as OXY trades in USD on the NYSE.

Example

Suppose you have NZ$1,000 to invest. If the Occidental Petroleum share price is US$41.46 (recent price), and assuming a NZD/USD rate of 0.61, this equals roughly NZ$68 per share. After a NZ$5 brokerage fee, you could purchase about 14 shares (NZ$952 / NZ$68 ≈ 14), excluding currency spread and small rounding.

✔️ Gain scenario

If the share price rises by 10%, your holdings would now be worth around NZ$1,100. Result: That’s a +NZ$100 gross gain, or +10% on your original investment.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading allows you to speculate on the price of Occidental Petroleum without owning the actual shares. Instead, you enter into a contract with your broker to capture price movements up or down. One major advantage is leverage: with a small deposit, you can gain larger market exposure—but this magnifies both gains and losses. Instead of a flat commission, you’ll pay a spread (the difference between buy/sell price) and overnight financing if you hold your position for more than a day.

Example

You open a CFD position on OXY shares with a NZ$1,000 investment and apply 5× leverage. This amplifies your market exposure to NZ$5,000.

✔️ Gain scenario

If OXY’s share price goes up 8%, your position delivers a 40% gain (8% × 5), netting you NZ$400 (excluding spread and overnight fees).

Final Advice

Before investing, it’s crucial to compare brokers’ fees, currency conversion charges, and trading conditions, as these can impact your returns. Consider whether direct share ownership or leveraged trading (CFDs) best suits your objectives, risk tolerance, and investment horizon. Each method has distinct advantages—so use the broker comparator further down this page to find the best platform for your needs as a New Zealand investor. Happy investing!

Our 7 tips for buying Occidental Petroleum stock

The latest news about Occidental Petroleum

Occidental Petroleum stock has shown a positive weekly performance, rising 2.75% despite broader energy market volatility. This recent uptick is significant given the sector’s challenges and indicates a stabilizing sentiment toward OXY. The stock is currently trading at $41.46 USD, just above its key technical support around $40.88, and targets a consensus price of $49.54, reflecting nearly 20% upside potential. The intraday movement (+0.83%) and proximity to its 20-day moving average highlight ongoing market interest, which could appeal to institutional and retail investors in New Zealand seeking energy diversification.

The company’s Q1 2025 earnings exceeded expectations, with revenue and EPS beating analyst estimates by 4.27% and 19.18% respectively. Occidental delivered $6.84 billion in revenue and an EPS of $0.87, demonstrating strong operational efficiency and effective cost management. These robust results have strengthened overall market confidence in OXY’s fundamentals, reinforcing its appeal for long-term portfolios. For New Zealand investors, especially those tracking global oil and gas performers for superannuation or managed funds exposure, these results underscore Occidental’s resilience compared to key sector peers.

Occidental Petroleum has reinforced its cash position and reduced leverage, generating $3 billion in operating cash flow and repaying $2.3 billion in debt to date in 2025. These financial moves are viewed positively by the market, as they provide greater stability and flexibility amid fluctuating commodity prices. The continued asset sales—$1.3 billion in Q1 alone—support Occidental’s deleveraging strategy and its ability to fund innovation, ensuring sustained dividend payouts and capital returns. This risk mitigation is especially relevant for New Zealand institutional investors focused on capital preservation in global holdings.

Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake and now holds 28.2% of Occidental, with recent purchases signalling deep conviction from a major long-term investor. Warren Buffett’s company currently owns over 260 million shares, reaffirming confidence in Occidental’s management and business strategy. This robust institutional backing is a constructive signal, often reassuring global shareholders, including those in New Zealand, about Occidental’s governance and strategic direction. The presence of Berkshire Hathaway as an anchor investor is likely to support share price resilience and attract new capital from funds and private clients in the region.

Occidental’s focus on carbon capture and advanced technology, including the acquisition of Carbon Engineering for $1.1 billion, strengthens its long-term growth narrative. The company’s leadership in decarbonization and deployment of artificial intelligence for enhanced oil recovery positions it at the forefront of energy transition initiatives, a theme increasingly important for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) mandates. With New Zealand’s strong ESG orientation and regulatory focus on emissions reductions, Occidental’s strategic push into low-carbon technologies may boost its credibility and make it a compelling component within NZ sustainable and global equity portfolios.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.