Should I buy Dollar General stock in 2025? NZ Investor Analysis

What is Dollar General?

*Estimate based on industry margins and reported net income.

How much is the Dollar General stock?

The price of Dollar General stock is rising this week. As of now, the share trades at $97.07 USD, marking a 0.72% decline over the past 24 hours, but a notable 4.01% gain for the week. The company’s market capitalisation stands at $21.35 billion, with an average 3-month daily trading volume of 4.45 million shares. Dollar General currently trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.1, offers a dividend yield of 2.43%, and shows a beta of 0.28, indicating low volatility. With its defensive business model and relatively stable price movements, Dollar General may appeal to NZ investors seeking resilience in global equity markets.

Our full analysis on the Dollar General stock

Having thoroughly reviewed Dollar General Corporation’s most recent financial results and dissected the stock’s evolution over the past three years, we have drawn upon a combination of robust financial indicators, up-to-date technical signals, comprehensive market data, and competitive benchmarking—fused within our proprietary analytical frameworks. This multi-dimensional approach delivers an informed, forward-looking perspective on Dollar General (NYSE: DG), a key player in the discount retail segment. So, why might Dollar General stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global defensive/retail space as we approach 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Dollar General has experienced notable market volatility, yet its recent performance is distinctly constructive. As of 30 May 2025, DG is trading at $97.07 USD, with a capitalisation of $21.35 billion. Over the last six months, the stock has advanced by a significant 25.62%, despite still being down 30.31% on a one-year basis—reflecting a market in the midst of a major recovery following a challenging period for U.S. small-cap and retail names.

This rebound is supported by clear positive developments:

• The stock has surged 4.01% in just the past week, underscoring a sharp increase in momentum and investor receptiveness.
• Operationally, DG has rolled out several strategic initiatives, including a “Back to Basics” operational turnaround, a partnership with DoorDash to boost access for SNAP recipients (March 2025), and a dedicated push into new product lines within beauty and essentials.
• The macro environment continues to reward consumer defensive stocks as economic uncertainty persists in the U.S. and globally, making resilient, necessity-driven retail plays increasingly attractive. In this context, Dollar General’s value-oriented business model is tailored to benefit from both inflation-hedging and persistent demand in rural, less volatile consumer segments—a feature recognized by investors seeking steady, lower-beta growth.

The comparably low beta (0.28) further reinforces DG’s appeal as a volatility dampener in a broader NZ or global equities portfolio. Analyst consensus has turned moderately optimistic, with 12 buy recommendations and 6 sells, suggesting continued institutional confidence in a turnaround.

Technical Analysis

A nuanced technical view reveals that DG is currently in a technically advantageous position. Key highlights:

• Moving averages: The share now trades above all major moving averages, with the 20-day ($94.47), 50-day ($91.19), 100-day ($82.59), and 200-day ($83.79) all well below the current price—a classic signal of a medium- to long-term bullish trend in formation. This is a key signpost for momentum traders and medium-term investors alike.
• Relative Strength Index: The RSI (14-day) at 57.07 indicates the stock is in neutral territory—neither overbought nor oversold—which positions it favorably for further gains without immediate risk of technical exhaustion.
• MACD: While the MACD (2.75) shows some short-term consolidation or minor selling pressure, this is often interpreted as a healthy breather after a sustained rally, particularly when other longer-term technicals remain bullish.
• Support and resistance: The key support zone between $86.02 and $87.59 has held robustly, and the next resistance at $100.12 is within close range—suggesting that any decisive break above this threshold could catalyze rapid upward acceleration toward consensus high targets (notably $120).

The sustained price action above critical levels, alongside positive crossovers in several trend indicators, indicates that Dollar General may be entering a new bullish phase, ripe for tactical accumulation.

Fundamental Analysis

Dollar General’s fundamental profile underscores both resilience and recovery potential, particularly as it leverages core strengths established over decades:

• Revenue Growth: Fiscal 2024 revenue grew to $40.61 billion (+4.96% YoY), confirming continued sales expansion even in a pressured macro landscape. This top-line resilience sets DG apart among discount peers.
• Profitability and Margins: While net income saw a one-off contraction ($1.13 billion, -32.27% YoY)—largely due to margin compression and inventory write-downs—the management’s “Back to Basics” programme is already bearing fruit, with clear cost-control and margin-restoration levers identified for 2025.
• Earnings Outlook: Forward EPS estimates for Q1 2025 imply a minor 10.9% YoY dip, but longer-term projections anticipate earnings rebounding in line with operational recovery and top-line growth. Guidance signals a return to 4% profit growth in the year ahead—aligning with industry expectations for a maturing, stable retail player.
• Valuation: The current P/E sits at 19.0–19.1—a level that appears highly attractive given Dollar General’s historical average, sector medians, and the potential for multiple expansion as margins recover. The dividend yield of 2.43% ($2.36 per share) enhances the total return profile and will appeal to NZ and global investors seeking both growth and yield.
• Structurally sound: Dollar General holds a quasi-monopolistic position in rural U.S. markets (20,000+ stores), serves an essential consumer segment, and is largely insulated from urban retail price wars. This embedded market share, paired with resilient business fundamentals, offers stability rarely matched in consumer-facing U.S. stocks.

Volume and Liquidity

Trading volume remains robust, with a sustained 3-month average daily volume of 4.45 million shares. This provides plentiful liquidity, lowering transaction costs and enabling efficient entry or scaling for both private and institutional investors. Furthermore, the 219.95 million-share free float ensures that the stock’s valuation remains dynamic, reflecting real market sentiment rather than being easily skewed by illiquidity.

Such high volume in tandem with recent price appreciation is often interpreted as a sign of institutional accumulation and strengthening market confidence—an element that typically precedes material upward re-ratings.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several compelling catalysts should be kept in sharp focus:

• Operational turnaround: The ongoing “Back to Basics” push is focused squarely on margin improvement and inventory optimization. Early results signal that operational headwinds are being addressed methodically—potentially unlocking significant bottom-line upside in coming quarters.
• Strategic partnerships: The partnership with DoorDash, especially as it expands SNAP program reach, exemplifies DG’s adaptive, technology-led approach to customer engagement.
• Product Expansion: Targeted growth in beauty and personal care serves to both raise average ticket and tap into higher-margin categories—often under-exploited in rural retail.
• Macro tailwinds: Trade policy shifts (e.g., tariffs supportive of domestic consumption) and persistent economic volatility continue to play to DG’s defensive strengths. In times of economic stress, consumer behaviour historically gravitates toward value-based, essentials-oriented retail.
• Store network expansion: With 20,000+ locations and an ongoing pipeline of new openings, the store footprint still offers scope for incremental growth, especially where competition is limited.

Notably, the consensus 12-month price targets ($95.19–$97.96 average, $120 high) suggest meaningful upside from current levels, particularly as the company executes on its operational recovery path.

Investment Strategies

Recent technical and fundamental developments indicate several compelling entry points for NZ-based investors:

• Short-Term: Investors looking for a tactical play may consider accumulation ahead of Q1 2025 results (expected 3 June), as historical volatility around earnings has produced attractive swing trading opportunities—especially when the technical picture remains constructive.
• Medium-Term: The stock’s recent breakout above all major moving averages combined with robust support at ~$86–88 suggests an optimal risk-reward skew for medium-term holders, with an initial price target at key resistance ($100–120); downside risk appears cushioned by the defensive business model and current valuation.
• Long-Term: For investors seeking sustained, lower-volatility exposure to the U.S. consumer sector, DG’s combination of yield, structural growth, and gradual margin recovery offers an appealing multi-year thesis. Dividends and the company’s defensively skewed earnings profile add ballast in turbulent markets—highly relevant for NZ investors seeking external diversification.

Positioning at current levels—above key support but prior to a break of major resistance—seems prudent for those anticipating renewed sector inflows and a company-specific inflection.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Dollar General?

Dollar General stands out today with a unique set of strengths: an entrenched leadership position in resilient rural markets, a proven and adaptive management team, a visible operational turnaround, and a clear path to margin and earnings recovery. The stock’s technical positioning above its critical moving averages, paired with a compelling valuation and reliable yield, more than justify renewed investor interest.

With a firm foundation in defensive retailing and a tailwind from both macro and company-specific catalysts, Dollar General may be entering a new bullish phase. For NZ and global investors alike, the blend of robust liquidity, market confidence, and strategically timed initiatives suggests that current conditions represent an outstanding opportunity to consider a new or expanded position in DG as 2025 approaches.

In summary, Dollar General presents an exceptionally attractive risk/reward dynamic for those seeking stable growth, diversified exposure, and upside potential in a globally relevant defensive stock—setting the stage for a promising new chapter as the next cycle unfolds.

How to buy Dollar General stock in New Zealand?

Buying Dollar General stock online is a straightforward and secure process for investors in New Zealand, thanks to regulated online brokers. These platforms allow you to purchase real shares of Dollar General (spot buying) or to speculate on price movements without owning the underlying stock using Contracts for Difference (CFDs). Spot buying suits those wanting long-term ownership, while CFDs appeal to traders seeking leverage and flexibility. Next, we explain these two main investment methods and offer a side-by-side broker comparison further down the page to help you find the best fit for your needs.

Spot buying

Spot buying lets you invest in Dollar General by becoming a real shareholder. You will own the shares directly on the NYSE, benefiting from any dividends and potential price appreciation. Typically, NZ retail investors pay a fixed brokerage commission per order – often around NZ$8 – plus a small currency conversion fee (as Dollar General is traded in USD).

Example

If Dollar General’s share price is $97.07 USD (about NZ$158 at an exchange rate of 0.6150), with a NZ$1,000 stake you can buy approximately 6 shares (6 × NZ$158 = NZ$948), including a brokerage fee of around NZ$8.

✔️ Gain scenario

If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth NZ$1,100.
Result: +NZ$100 gross gain, or +10% on your investment.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading allows you to speculate on Dollar General’s price movements without owning the underlying stock. With CFDs, you trade with leverage, meaning you only need part of the full exposure as margin. Typical costs include the spread (the small difference between buy and sell price) and, if you hold positions overnight, overnight financing fees.

Example

You open a CFD position on Dollar General with NZ$1,000 and 5x leverage. This means your market exposure is NZ$5,000. If the stock price rises 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: +NZ$400 gain on an initial NZ$1,000 margin (excluding fees).

Final advice

Before investing, it’s essential to carefully compare brokers’ fees, currency conversion rates, and available trading tools. Your decision will depend on your own objectives and investment style—whether you prefer long-term ownership or active speculation with leverage. To help you get started, a detailed broker comparison is available further down this page.

Our 7 tips for buying Dollar General stock

The latest news about Dollar General

Dollar General’s stock has gained over 4% in the past week, supported by sustained technical strength. This movement, particularly relevant for investors from New Zealand assessing US retail, reflects the stock’s current position above its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages—signals commonly interpreted in global markets as confirmation of a medium- to long-term upward trend. The continuation of these trends is watched closely, especially given Dollar General’s low beta (0.28), indicating lower volatility, and a dividend yield of 2.43%. The defensive profile and recent upside may appeal to NZ-based portfolio managers seeking global diversification with resilience to economic cycles.

Consensus among analysts remains moderately optimistic, with a price target close to current levels and a high outlier target of $120. Twelve buy recommendations versus six sell ratings signal a cautiously improving market sentiment. While the stock is still well below its 52-week peak, this consensus, coupled with the four percent weekly rise, suggests a stabilizing narrative after a challenging year. For institutional investors or KiwiSaver managers, this analyst outlook supports the view of Dollar General as a turnaround candidate with risk-adjusted upside potential, following significant drawdowns in 2024.

Dollar General’s “Back to Basics” operational restructuring is underway, focusing on cost efficiency and margin recovery. This program, openly communicated by management, aims to address recent challenges in inventory management and shrinkage (inventory loss), areas closely monitored by global investors. Early signs of progress have positively influenced market perception, evidenced by recent price performance and constructive signals from technical indicators. For New Zealand investors, such operational turnarounds command attention, as efficiency improvements often precede sustainable earnings growth in multinational retail equities.

The company’s recent strategic partnership with DoorDash, expanding digital and SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) access, demonstrates adaptation to evolving consumer needs. Announced in March, this move integrates e-commerce capabilities and digital grocery delivery, which are key trends among global discount retailers and resonate with New Zealand investors following disruptive digital transformation in retail worldwide. Such partnerships help anchor Dollar General’s relevance in the US, with lessons in digital strategy valuable for NZ stakeholders seeking exposure to US retail innovation and inclusive service models.

No direct presence or product distribution has been reported in New Zealand, but Dollar General’s defensive business model and rural-market dominance have global read-across for defensive allocation strategies. With over 20,000 US stores and a quasi-monopolistic rural footprint, the company’s business model is regarded by global asset managers as resilient against economic headwinds, a trait that often appeals to New Zealand superannuation schemes or institutions searching for core defensive overseas assets. Furthermore, the stock remains US-domiciled and is primarily accessible to NZ investors via US exchanges, subject to US tax treaties (including on dividend withholding), with no direct New Zealand regulatory impact.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.