Should I buy Kraft Heinz stock in 2025? Essential NZ Guide

What is Kraft Heinz?

How much is the Kraft Heinz stock?

The price of Kraft Heinz stock is rising this week. As of now, Kraft Heinz (KHC) is trading at $27.02 USD, showing a 1.81% increase over the past 24 hours, though down 1.96% for the week.

While the share price has experienced recent pressure, the high dividend yield and defensive profile may appeal to NZ investors seeking stability and steady income.

Our full analysis of the Kraft Heinz stock

We have analysed Kraft Heinz’s latest financial results and examined its stock performance across the last three years, leveraging a combination of financial metrics, technical indicators, real-time market data, and comparative peer analysis through proprietary algorithms. Against a backdrop of recent corporate milestones and shifting sector dynamics, clear signals are emerging from both technical and fundamental perspectives. So, why might Kraft Heinz once again become a strategic entry point into the global packaged food sector as we head into 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ: KHC), a fixture in the global consumer staples landscape, is currently trading at $27.02 USD (as of 30 May 2025), reflecting an intraday gain of +1.81%. Over the past week, the share price has declined by -1.96%, while six- and twelve-month windows register corrections of -15.48% and -22.04% respectively. The stock is now hovering just above its 52-week low ($26.01), well off last year’s high of $36.53.

Despite these headline declines, it is important to contextualise the recent drawdown within broader sector and macroeconomic developments:

• Macroeconomic resilience: While inflationary pressures and shifting consumer preferences have weighed on volumes (notably a -6.4% year-on-year decrease in Q1 revenues), packaged food remains a classic defensive sector—historically delivering relative outperformance during phases of increased volatility.
• Sectorwide consolidation: M&A activity is accelerating among food and beverage players, with conglomerates seeking operational efficiencies and category leadership—an environment where Kraft Heinz’s scale and flexibility may set the stage for renewed investor focus.
• Recent positive events: The company has decisively outperformed earnings-per-share forecasts ($0.62 vs $0.60 consensus in Q1 2025), underlining effective cost controls and resilience amid sector headwinds.

In sum, recent price weakness appears to reflect cyclical pressures rather than a deterioration in core fundamentals, potentially setting the stage for a favourable price-to-value reset.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, Kraft Heinz is exhibiting classic indicators of a potential medium- to long-term bullish reversal:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): At 30.15 (14 days), the RSI is firmly in the oversold zone, historically associated with a high probability of technical rebounds.
• MACD: The moving average convergence divergence indicator remains negative at -0.67, highlighting current short-term selling pressure but also suggesting any positive momentum could spark sharp upward moves.
• Moving Averages: All signals (20, 50, 200-day SMA) are aligned on the downside, yet this capitulation often precedes major support tests—$26.01 now acting as a fortress support level, having triggered rebounds in prior market cycles.
• Support and Resistance: Immediate resistance levels are clustered at $28.54 and $31.00, with a major technical ceiling at $36.53. If the stock can establish a floor near current lows, the technical structure favours consolidation followed by a potential upside breakout toward the consensus target of $31.56.

Short-term technical momentum is subdued, but the confluence of oversold momentum and strong support suggests the potential for a significant mean reversion, making the current price region appear historically attractive for strategic entry.

Fundamental Analysis

Kraft Heinz’s fundamental profile remains compelling for investors seeking resilient value and income:

• Revenue and profitability: While Q1 2025 sales declined (-6.4% year-on-year), adjusted EPS beat expectations. EBITDA ($1.199 billion, down just 5.2%) underlines robust margin defence despite top-line pressures.
• Valuation: With a price/earnings ratio of just 12.12 and a substantial discount to historical averages and global peers, KHC screens as one of the more attractively valued defensive names. The forward P/E, combined with projected stable free cash flow and a PEG (price-to-earnings/growth) well below the sector median, reinforces this.
• Dividend yield: A 6.03% annual yield ($1.60 per share) remains among the highest in its sector, buttressed by a consistent dividend policy through multiple cycles.
• Balance sheet and strategic flexibility: $2.79 billion in cash, a 95% free cash flow conversion, and a globally diversified sales mix (operations in 40+ countries) place Kraft Heinz in a strong position relative to competitors, even amidst industry headwinds.
• Brand power and innovation: With iconic holdings spanning Kraft, Heinz, Oscar Mayer, Philadelphia, and Velveeta, the company maintains a dominant share in multiple categories while continuing to invest in innovation and emerging market growth (+3.9% organic gains in Q1 from these regions).

Kraft Heinz’s fundamentals justify renewed interest, particularly given the structural strengths underpinning the business and the substantial buffer provided by its robust dividend policy.

Volume and Liquidity

The trading profile of KHC further fortifies its appeal to a broad spectrum of investors:

• Deep liquidity: With average daily volumes of 11.28 million shares over the last quarter and nearly the entire capitalisation (1.18 of 1.19 billion shares) comprising the free float, there is minimal liquidity risk—an essential attribute for both institutional and retail NZ investors seeking optimal execution.
• Stable ownership: Berkshire Hathaway’s retained 27.5% holding provides both validation and a stabilising anchor, reflecting enduring faith from one of the world’s most reputable investment houses.
• Market confidence: Sustained trading volume, even amid recent volatility, highlights persistent investor interest at these levels, reinforcing the notion that the market remains engaged and ready to react positively to new catalysts.

Historical trading data consistently suggest that volume surges at or near major support levels have presaged strong follow-through rallies.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Despite cyclical pressures, Kraft Heinz is entering a new phase defined by multiple potential catalysts:

• Strategic flexibility: The recent departure of Berkshire representatives from the board (while maintaining their ownership stake) introduces greater latitude for management to pursue value-unlocking M&A and portfolio optimisation.
• Operational excellence: Active programmes targeting cost reduction, operational streamlining, and high-margin product innovation may drive market sentiment, particularly as the company seeks to offset ongoing North American volume declines (-7.1% in Q1).
• Emerging market expansion: Structurally elevated growth in international markets (+3.9% organic sales growth in Q1) underpins a more diversified and resilient earnings base.
• Product innovation and brand elevation: Ongoing investments in product quality and new offerings—particularly in response to changing consumer demands—poise KHC to capture incremental share from both traditional and challenger brands.
• ESG initiatives: Management’s continued focus on environmental, social, and governance commitments—coupled with a strengthened leadership team under CEO Carlos Abrams-Rivera—positions the company to attract new layers of institutional demand in a progressively ESG-conscious marketplace.

With these drivers, forward guidance sees adjusted EPS for 2025 between $2.51 and $2.67 and a stable, high free cash flow yield—metrics that support both dividend sustainability and broader capital deployment.

Investment Strategies

Kraft Heinz’s current price and operational outlook are supportive of a range of portfolio objectives:

• Short term:
• Positioning near the 52-week low ($26.01) appears opportunistic, especially with technical indicators signalling oversold conditions. Entry near current levels captures both immediate yield and the potential for sharp technical rebounds.
• The next ex-dividend date has just passed (30 May 2025), enabling new entrants to prepare for the next dividend cycle.
• Medium term:
• The combination of expected mean reversion toward the analyst consensus target ($31.56, or +30% upside from current price), operational execution, and potential corporate actions makes KHC a strong candidate for re-rating as sector fundamentals stabilise.
• Long term:
• For income-focused investors with a multi-year horizon (including NZ superannuation and managed funds), Kraft Heinz offers one of the most compelling blends of yield, defensive moat, and blue-chip brand strength, with the added upside of international growth and ongoing cost efficiencies.

Given the breadth of positive momentum and undervaluation, the current market phase seems to represent an excellent entry opportunity for well-diversified global portfolios.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Kraft Heinz?

In summary, Kraft Heinz stands at a strategic inflection point. The company’s blend of robust yield, iconic brands, stable operating cash flows, and its freshly enhanced strategic agility combine to reflect structural strengths rarely available at such an undemanding valuation. The current technical oversold state, reinforced by strong support at historical lows, greatly increases the probability of a bullish reversal—further validated by recent outperformance on adjusted earnings and a plethora of identifiable catalysts in corporate strategy, product innovation, and expanding market footprints.

With a consensus price target implying material upside, an attractive risk-reward profile, and clear evidence of operational resiliency, Kraft Heinz stock is—by every meaningful financial, technical, and strategic measure—worthy of close and renewed consideration from NZ and global investors seeking stable returns and defensiveness with upside optionality.

For those searching for a compelling combination of yield, value, and potential turnaround momentum in the defensive consumer sector, Kraft Heinz at current levels seems to represent an excellent opportunity to gain exposure ahead of the next phase of sector leadership and innovation.

How to buy Kraft Heinz stock in New Zealand?

Buying Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ: KHC) shares online is simple and secure for New Zealand investors, thanks to regulated brokers operating under strict financial supervision. There are two main approaches: purchasing real Kraft Heinz shares (“spot buying”) for long-term investing, or trading Kraft Heinz CFDs for more flexible, leveraged exposure. Both methods are accessible via user-friendly platforms, allowing you to invest or trade in just a few clicks, with your capital protected by robust security systems. To help you make the best choice, you’ll find an in-depth broker comparison further down this page.

Cash buying

A cash purchase means you are buying Kraft Heinz shares directly via a broker, becoming a shareholder and benefiting from dividends and any potential price appreciation. NZ-based brokers typically charge a fixed commission per trade, such as NZ$5–15, depending on the provider. For example, if Kraft Heinz shares trade at US$27.02 and you invest NZ$1,000 (after conversion, roughly US$600), you could buy about 22 real shares, factoring in a NZ$5 brokerage fee.

Example gain scenario for cash buying

Gain scenario:
If the KHC share price rises by 10%, your holdings are worth NZ$1,100.
Result: +NZ$100 gross gain, a +10% return on your investment.

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) let you speculate on Kraft Heinz share price movements without owning the underlying shares. Instead, you trade a contract mirroring the share price. CFDs involve costs such as the spread (the difference between buy and sell price) and overnight financing fees if you keep leveraged positions open past one day. Suppose you commit NZ$1,000 as margin and use 5x leverage: your market exposure rises to NZ$5,000.

Example gain scenario for CFD trading

Gain scenario:
If KHC rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: +NZ$400 gross gain (excluding spreads and financing), achieved from a NZ$1,000 deposit.

Final advice

Before investing, carefully compare broker fees, minimum deposit requirements, and available market access, as these can meaningfully impact your overall return. Whether you choose to buy real shares or use CFDs should fit your risk appetite and investment objectives. The right strategy depends on whether you seek long-term ownership and dividends, or are looking for short-term trading opportunities. For details on the best brokers for New Zealand investors, please refer to the comparator available further down this page.

Our 7 tips for buying Kraft Heinz stock

The latest news about Kraft Heinz

Kraft Heinz’s quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share has been confirmed, maintaining an attractive 6.03% yield. This is particularly relevant for New Zealand-based investors seeking stable income, as the dividend was sustained despite revenue pressures, affirming the company’s commitment to shareholder returns. While US-sourced dividends to NZ investors are generally subject to a 30% withholding tax, the US-NZ double taxation agreement allows most retail NZ investors to benefit from a reduced rate (15%), improving the net effective yield. The company’s record of unbroken dividend payments signals resilience, a key consideration amid global market volatility and for those prioritising defensive sectors in their portfolios.

Kraft Heinz exceeded analyst expectations on earnings per share for Q1 2025, despite challenging sales dynamics. Earnings per share reached $0.62, outpacing the consensus estimate of $0.60, predominantly due to operational efficiency and cost control. Positive earnings surprises often signal improving management discipline and can drive renewed investor confidence, even when sales trend downward. The company’s iconic brands and broad international footprint, including supplies to New Zealand retailers, provide some insulation from regional market weakness, supporting the investment case for NZ holders looking for multinational defensive exposure.

Berkshire Hathaway has withdrawn its representatives from Kraft Heinz’s board but retains its substantial 27.5% stake. This major governance shift, effective in late May, enhances Kraft Heinz’s strategic flexibility without disrupting the backing of one of the world’s most respected institutional investors. Market analysts view Berkshire’s continued shareholding as a stabilising factor, indicating an ongoing endorsement during a phase of strategic review and potential M&A activity. For NZ analysts, Berkshire’s sustained commitment may be interpreted as a sign of underlying value and risk mitigation amid long-term transformation.

Kraft Heinz is actively exploring strategic portfolio moves, including potential M&A, to unlock shareholder value. Senior management has confirmed a focus on acquiring or divesting assets to optimise the company portfolio, strengthen core operations, and capture geographies with faster growth. Such restructuring initiatives are considered constructive, especially for global investors looking for catalysts that could rejuvenate earnings growth and support stock recovery. For NZ-based institutions or funds, this strategic dynamism aligns with mandates to prioritise companies committed to unlocking greater shareholder value during market downturns.

Technical signals place Kraft Heinz in oversold territory, indicating attractive entry points for value-oriented investors. With the 14-day RSI at 30.15, the stock is technically oversold, and consensus target price remains at $31.56—about 30% upside from current levels. Moreover, with a very low beta of 0.27, the stock is less volatile than the broader market, a characteristic valued by NZ investors wary of macro-driven swings, particularly given the intention to diversify globally amidst persistent economic uncertainty.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.