Should I buy Oatly stock in 2025? Insights for NZ Investors

What is Oatly?

How much is Oatly stock?

The price of Oatly stock is stable this week. As of now, Oatly is trading at $11.10 USD with a 24-hour change of 0.00% and a solid weekly gain of 7.98%. The company’s market capitalisation stands at $332.20 million, with an average three-month volume of 126,974 shares. Oatly does not currently have a P/E ratio, as it remains unprofitable, and it offers no dividend yield. With a beta of 1.88, Oatly’s stock tends to experience higher volatility than the overall market—something New Zealand investors should factor into their strategies.

Our complete analysis of the Oatly stock

Having thoroughly examined Oatly Group AB's latest quarterly results and its stock performance across a three-year period, alongside peer benchmarking, macro trends, and in-depth technical analysis, our proprietary analytics point towards new grounds for optimism. By aggregating key financial ratios, advanced chart signals, and sector-wide developments, we detect significant strengthening within Oatly's operating model and market positioning. So, why might Oatly stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global plant-based consumer sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Oatly shares (NASDAQ: OTLY) currently trade at $11.10, showing stability intraday and a robust ascent of +7.98% over the past week. While the six-month trend is still negative (-20.6%), the recent rebound from its 52-week low of $6.00 highlights renewed investor confidence and adaptive momentum. Despite a challenging trailing twelve months (-47.6% year-on-year), the underlying sector fundamentals remain compelling. The plant-based dairy alternatives market is rebounding globally, benefiting from secular tailwinds driven by health-conscious consumers and favorable regulatory environments—especially relevant for Australasian and global investors looking for ESG-aligned opportunities.

Recent operational highlights for Oatly include the successful launch of major product expansions—most notably the Oatly Barista Edition Coffee through a partnership with Nespresso in January 2025. Moreover, Oatly’s asset-light initiative—refining global supply chains and selectively downsizing non-core manufacturing assets—has been well received by the market, exemplifying management’s discipline and long-term vision. The annual general meeting and Q1 earnings further communicated concrete progress toward profitability, galvanizing institutional interest.

Across the wider sector, heightened demand for sustainable, non-dairy beverages and foods continues to accelerate, with oat-based offerings outpacing other alternatives in both volume and revenue growth—a trend particularly pronounced in the Asia-Pacific and Greater China markets, where Oatly boasts strong brand resonance and expanding distribution.

Technical Analysis

A review of Oatly’s technical chart structure paints a constructive near-to-medium term outlook. Key indicators as of 30 May 2025 are as follows:

• RSI (14 days): 63.5 (Neutral to positively biased, not overbought—implying ample room for further upside)
• MACD (12,26): 0.31 (slightly negative, yet near a crossover zone—suggesting any additional buying activity could trigger a fresh bullish phase)
• Moving Averages:
• 5-day MA: $10.80
• 20-day MA: $10.37
• 50-day MA: $9.77
• 100-day MA: $10.40
• All above current support and flashing 'buy' signals, with only the 200-day MA ($13.21) requiring further momentum for a technical breakout.

At present, Oatly trades just above its key support at $10.34 and will likely target resistance at $11.54 on increased volume. The overall technical consensus remains resolutely in ‘buy’ territory, supported by a structure of higher lows and increasing positive momentum on multiple timeframes. This profile suggests that Oatly may be entering a new bullish phase, offering an excellent entry zone for investors tracking both technical and fundamental catalysts.

Fundamental Analysis

Oatly’s Q1 2025 earnings print marked a decisive inflection point. Revenue reached $197.5 million (modestly below consensus but effectively stable), while adjusted EBITDA losses narrowed significantly to -$3.7 million (vs. -$13.2 million YoY). Perhaps most compelling, net losses declined by an impressive 73% to -$12.5 million, underscoring disciplined cost controls and executional rigor. Gross margin also improved to a healthy 31.6%.

• Innovation-Led Portfolio: Oatly continues to lead as the world’s largest oat drink company, with a diversified suite of beverages, yogurts, frozen desserts, and culinary applications. New product pipelines in collaboration with global CPG partners position the brand to capture incremental market share.
• Geographical Diversification: Operations in Europe, North America, Asia-Pacific, and especially China (where growth is robust) insulate Oatly from regionalized volatility and create avenues for scalable expansion.
• Brand Equity: Oatly’s sustainability focus and premiumization strategy underpin high consumer loyalty—essential for defending margins in a competitive space.

On valuation, although the company remains loss-making (P/E not meaningful), it trades at roughly 0.4x trailing sales ($332.20M market cap versus $822M TTM revenue)—a level that appears highly attractive given Oatly’s sector leadership and the consensus price target of $18.40 (+65.8% potential upside). The current market cap does not fully reflect the company’s progress toward operational break-even and scalable, profitable revenue growth.

Volume and Liquidity

Sustained three-monthly average trading volume at 126,974 shares underlines persistent interest from both retail and institutional investors. The substantial float (approx. 27.92 million shares versus 29.91 million outstanding) ensures healthy liquidity—facilitating efficient price discovery and dynamic valuation adjustments. Elevated trading turns at recent support and resistance levels signal that Oatly remains a stock watched closely by market participants, supporting thesis-driven accumulation at technically attractive price points.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Multiple forward-looking catalysts further reinforce the constructive narrative:

• New Product Launches & Partnerships: The Nespresso tie-in and Oatly’s expanding range enhance visibility and engage previously untapped consumer segments.
• Asset-Light Model Execution: Factory closures in non-core geographies are driving operating expense efficiencies and margin improvement, all while enabling scalable supply.
• Sustainability & ESG Leadership: As climate-conscious investment becomes mainstream, Oatly's deeply-rooted ESG initiatives and environmentally positive brand ethos enhance its premium among global portfolios—especially relevant for New Zealand and APAC-based institutions seeking ESG integration.
• Geographic Growth: Exceptionally strong momentum in China and broader Asia-Pacific augurs well for medium-term revenue acceleration.
• Profitability Milestone Guidance: Management’s guidance for 2–4% constant currency revenue growth and the company's first ever full year of profitable growth in 2025 is a tangible inflection point that can prompt further upward revisions from analysts.

The convergence of these factors sets up a favorable context for share price appreciation, particularly as the broader plant-based foods category returns to secular growth and investor focus.

Investment Strategies

Depending on preferred time horizon and risk profile, Oatly’s current setup invites consideration of several differentiated strategies:

• Short-Term: For active traders, the recent bounce from support at $10.34 and bullish technical signals present an appealing momentum-driven opportunity. Positioning ahead of the $11.54 resistance may capture the next up-leg, especially if volume further accelerates.
• Medium-Term: Investors with a 3–12 month view may seek to accumulate within the current consolidation band, with potential to benefit from upcoming catalyst events (e.g., product rollouts, next earnings print, positive news on profitability milestones).
• Long-Term: Strategic buyers focused on secular megatrends in health, sustainability, and emerging consumer segments could view current valuations as a rare entry into a sector leader with global exposure and a powerful brand—especially given the projected first full year of profitable growth ahead.

In all timeframes, the technical and fundamental backdrop appears to justify renewed interest and favor cautious optimism, whilst respecting the stock’s higher volatility profile.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Oatly?

Bringing the analysis together, several points coalesce to underpin the view that Oatly now seems to represent an excellent opportunity for forward-looking investors:

• The business is executing a clear path to profitability, with material reductions in losses and operational improvements quarter-on-quarter.
• Sector and macro trends continue to lean in Oatly’s favor: health, sustainability, and plant-based diets are increasingly mainstream and supported by global policy.
• Technical alignment (multiple ‘buy’ signals above support, improving momentum) and a broad consensus among analysts (target +65.8% higher) reinforce upside potential.
• The stock’s current valuation—well below historical highs and sector norms—does not yet reflect these inflection points, offering promising re-rating prospects as milestones are delivered.

In summary, Oatly combines accelerating operational performance, supportive macro currents, and compelling technical structure at what appears to be a favorable valuation. For NZ and APAC-based investors seeking exposure to the next phase of plant-based consumer growth, the case for considering Oatly as a core portfolio position continues to strengthen. As the company approaches its first full year of profitable growth, the intersection of these factors may set the stage for a meaningful reappraisal of its investment merits.

As global markets increasingly reward innovation, sustainability, and disciplined execution, Oatly emerges as a stock with the momentum, leadership, and growth ambition to warrant close attention for those looking to capture the next wave in sustainable consumer brands.

How to buy Oatly stock in New Zealand?

Buying Oatly shares online is both straightforward and secure for New Zealand investors, thanks to the range of regulated international brokers available today. You can choose between two main methods: purchasing Oatly shares outright ("spot buying") for traditional investing, or trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allow for more flexible strategies with leverage. Each approach has its own advantages and risks, making it important to understand the differences before you start. If you're unsure where to begin, a handy broker comparison is available further down the page to help you make the best choice.

Spot buying

When you buy Oatly shares "spot" (also called a cash purchase), you become a direct shareholder and own the actual shares, usually held for you by your broker. This is the simplest and most popular way to invest in individual stocks. In New Zealand, international share trading typically incurs a flat fee per order, often in the range of NZD $3–$15 depending on the broker.

Important example

Example:
Assume Oatly shares are trading at US$11.10 each. If you deposit NZ$1,000 (about US$610 at a rate of 0.61), you can purchase approximately 55 shares (US$11.10 × 55 ≈ US$610), factoring in a typical NZD $5 brokerage fee.

✔️ Gain scenario:
If Oatly’s share price rises by 10%, your investment would now be worth about NZ$1,100.
Result: That’s a gross gain of NZ$100, or +10% on your original investment (not accounting for currency movements or transaction costs).

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) offer an alternative method to gain exposure to Oatly’s share price without owning the shares directly. When trading CFDs, you can take a position on whether the price will rise or fall, and you can also use leverage, meaning you can gain a larger market exposure with a smaller amount of capital. However, CFD trading comes with added costs such as spreads (the difference between the buying and selling price), and overnight financing fees if you hold positions for more than a day.

Important example

Example:
With NZ$1,000, you open a CFD position on Oatly using 5x leverage, giving you exposure to NZ$5,000 worth of shares.

✔️ Gain scenario:
If Oatly’s price rises by 8%, your position increases by 8% × 5 = 40%. That’s a gain of NZ$400 on your NZ$1,000 stake, but be mindful of spread and overnight fees which would reduce your net profit.

Final advice

Before investing in Oatly or any international stock, it’s essential to compare brokers’ fees, currency conversion rates, and trading conditions to find the best fit for your goals. Each method—spot buying or CFD trading—has its own benefits and risks, so choose based on your investment horizon, risk tolerance, and strategy. For an overview of top brokerage options suitable for NZ investors, don’t forget to consult the comparative table further down the page.

Our 7 tips for buying Oatly stock

The latest news about Oatly

Oatly shares posted a robust weekly performance with a 7.98% increase, underpinned by short-term technical momentum. The stock, trading on the NASDAQ under the OTLY ticker, currently stands at $11.10 as of May 30, 2025. Technical indicators are largely favorable: four key moving averages (5, 20, 50, 100 days) all signal a buy, and the overall technical consensus also recommends accumulation. Despite some residual caution flagged by a neutral RSI and a MACD sell signal, the technical environment markedly supports positive sentiment and short-term investor interest, something closely monitored by active managers and Kiwi investors seeking tactical positions.

Oatly demonstrated financial progress in Q1 2025, cutting net losses by 73% versus the previous year. Latest quarterly results revealed a net loss of $12.5 million, a substantial improvement from the previous year, as well as an improved adjusted EBITDA loss ($3.7 million compared to $13.2 million in Q1 2024). Although revenue of $197.5 million slightly missed consensus estimates, steady gross margins (31.6%) and the reduction of losses represent a shift towards financial discipline and greater operational efficiency, a constructive message for international investors, including those in New Zealand evaluating emerging global consumer brands.

Analyst sentiment remains bullish, projecting a 65% upside with a strong “buy” consensus for Oatly. Five analysts currently covering the stock set an average price target of $18.40, indicating a significant room for appreciation from current levels, and their collective recommendation is “buy.” This view aligns with Oatly’s stated ambition to achieve its first full year of profitable growth in 2025 and targets for 2% to 4% constant-currency revenue growth. This forward momentum provides reassurance to New Zealand-based investors and platforms that focus on high-growth international equities and are sensitive to relative valuation opportunities.

Strategic partnerships, including the recent global launch with Nespresso, reinforce Oatly’s product innovation and market reach. The debut of Oatly Barista Edition Coffee with Nespresso (January 2025) marks a strengthening of Oatly’s platform in the premium plant-based beverage segment worldwide, a move expected to invigorate brand equity and channel growth, especially within key markets in the Asia-Pacific region. This is particularly relevant for New Zealand, where Nespresso and Oatly enjoy broad supermarket and café distribution, spotlighting the importance of such partnerships for the local market ecosystem and for domestic investors seeking exposure to international consumer trends.

Oatly continues to benefit from structural strengths as a category leader with a global supply network, including the Asia-Pacific region. As the “world’s original and largest oat drink company,” Oatly leverages both a diversified global footprint and a proven reputation for innovation across drinks, yogurts, desserts, and culinary products. The company’s asset-light supply chain strategy, illustrated by recent optimization in Singapore, and growing traction in markets like China, reinforce its commitment to efficient scaling. For New Zealand’s plant-based segment—one of the Asia-Pacific’s most dynamic—Oatly’s presence and category leadership positions it as a benchmark stock for institutional and ESG-conscious investors monitoring food sustainability themes.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.