Should I Buy NIO Stock in 2025? Expert NZ Analysis

What is NIO?

How much is the NIO stock?

The price of NIO stock is rising this week. As of now, NIO trades at $3.68 USD, showing a 24-hour increase of +$0.01 (+0.27%), though it's down -5.15% over the past week. The company's market capitalisation stands at $8.12 billion USD, with an average 3-month volume of 50.3 million shares.

NIO currently has a P/E ratio of N/A (as the company is not profitable), offers a 0% dividend yield, and features a stock beta of 1.73, highlighting strong sensitivity to overall market movements.

For NZ investors, such volatility means opportunities and risks often move hand in hand with this dynamic stock.

Our full analysis on the NIO stock

After a rigorous review of NIO’s most recent financial results and an in-depth comparison of the stock’s trajectory over the past three years, our multifactor analysis—combining financial metrics, technical signals, evolving market trends, and competitive data through proprietary algorithms—delivers fresh insight into this dynamic EV manufacturer. The evidence points to a period of consolidation that may hold significant promise for strategic investors, especially as the sector pivots toward renewed growth in 2025. So, why might NIO stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global electric vehicle market in the year ahead?

Recent Performance and Market Context

NIO’s shares are currently trading at $3.68 USD, towards the lower end of their 52-week range ($3.02 – $7.71), reflective of a consolidation phase following a challenging sector-wide correction. While the stock has declined approximately 15.98% year-to-date and 25.35% over the past twelve months, these developments must be contextualised within the volatility inherent to fast-growing EV markets and the cyclical nature of technology equities. Notably, the company announced a 53% year-on-year surge in April vehicle deliveries, reaching 23,900 units, with a cumulative total of nearly 66,000 vehicles delivered so far in 2025—a powerful signal of renewed operational momentum.

The macroeconomic environment is increasingly constructive: robust support for EVs from Chinese policymakers, an accelerating phase-out of internal-combustion vehicles in developed markets, and fresh macro tailwinds—including stabilising rates and strong consumer demand for electric mobility—are all converging. These dynamics, alongside sector enthusiasm for technological differentiation, position NIO to capitalise on the global energy transition underway.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, NIO’s current chart structure underscores the possibility of an inflection point materialising in the near term:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14 days): The RSI of 44.08 is in neutral territory, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions—a set-up historically associated with pre-reversal scenarios.
• MACD: At -0.01, the MACD is only modestly negative and appears to be bottoming out, indicative of potentially waning downward momentum.
• Key Support Levels: With well-defined supports at $3.63, $3.58, and $3.52, the stock seems to have found a stabilisation zone. These are ideal points for patient accumulation, as they have held through recent volatility.
• Moving Averages: The stock remains below its main moving averages, consistent with a short-term bearish trend, yet this can often be a precursor to a reversal once improved fundamental catalysts take hold.

Structurally, NIO exhibits the classic hallmarks of a base-building phase, with downside risk appearing increasingly circumscribed by robust technical supports and a bullish reversal likely if positive news flow—such as the upcoming Q1 results or new product launches—confirms investor optimism.

Fundamental Analysis

Beyond the technicals, NIO’s investment thesis rests firmly on compelling fundamental attributes:

• Revenue Growth: The operational rebound is clear: expected 2025 revenue is projected at $13.8 billion USD, an impressive 51.4% year-on-year rise. This robust top-line acceleration reflects market share gains and successful new model introductions.
• Expanding Delivery Volume: Annualised volume growth remains enviable, with total vehicle deliveries up 44.5% YTD versus 2024, substantially outpacing many competitors.
• Attractive Valuation: Despite ongoing losses (2025 EPS likely around -$1.23), NIO’s Price/Sales multiple of just 0.83 stands out as notably attractive for a high-growth, innovation-led company. Relative to sector peers, this discount appears excessive, especially as NIO’s revenue inflection and diversified business model suggest rising returns over time.
• Strategic Expansion: Major strategic initiatives are underway, including the launch of the Firefly premium brand (targeting Europe in H2 2025), the scalable ONVO family offering, and ongoing portfolio extension to nine premium electric models. The innovative partnership with CATL on battery swapping technology and the planned rollout of 2,000 new battery swap stations in 2025 further reinforce a modular, high-utility business platform.
• Brand and Ecosystem Strength: NIO’s reputation for advanced driver-assistance, integrated powertrain solutions, and a seamless customer ecosystem (including home, mobile, and public charging) yield strong brand stickiness and competitive differentiation.
• R&D and Technological Edge: Leading-edge, proprietary R&D in battery technology, autonomous driving, and smart-vehicle architecture enable first-mover advantages, particularly in the world’s largest EV market.

These fundamentals, especially when coupled with consistent operational improvements and license-to-operate in both China and—significantly—fast-growing European markets, support the case that NIO’s current discount may not be sustainable.

Volume and Liquidity

Market liquidity remains a further strength in NIO’s profile. With a substantial average daily trading volume of 50.3 million shares, investor participation is deep and sustained, underscoring strong market confidence in the name’s long-term potential. The sizeable free float and dynamic capital flows contribute to a price environment conducive to healthy price discovery, allowing for efficient entries and exits. For NZ-based investors, liquidity at this scale is especially advantageous in the context of global portfolio diversification.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Looking forward, a mosaic of powerful growth catalysts are poised to stimulate renewed investor enthusiasm:

• Upcoming Earnings Release: NIO will announce Q1 2025 results on 3 June 2025. Consensus expects a BPAs of -$0.22 and revenues of $12.46B USD but with upside potential if recent delivery strength is sustained.
• Firefly Brand Launch: The new Firefly marque is accelerating NIO’s premium positioning and will debut in major European markets in Q3 2025—a strategic entry aligned with surging regional demand for innovative EVs.
• Technological Leadership: The battery-swap ecosystem is set to expand by 2,000 new stations this year, supported by a major partnership with industry leader CATL, enhancing operating leverage and customer convenience. These initiatives reflect NIO’s best-in-class commitment to usability, driving distance, and reduced ownership friction.
• Expansion in China and Abroad: Ongoing growth in China’s domestic market—now complemented by pronounced inroads into Europe—and plans to reach 20+ international markets by year-end 2025, support ambitious sales targets and growing global recognition.
• Favourable Policy Environment: Both Chinese and European governments continue to reinforce policies that favour EV adoption, including subsidies, infrastructure investments, and regulatory initiatives targeting vehicle carbon neutrality—tailwinds that directly benefit NIO’s footprint.
• ESG Credentials: NIO’s efforts to align its operating model with ESG imperatives provide a further draw for global institutional capital sourcing, raising the stock’s attractiveness to impact-focused portfolios.
• Consensus Upside: Analyst price targets average $5.15 (a 40% premium), and updated ‘Buy’ ratings from major brokerages underscore an emerging bullish consensus.

This convergence of operational, technological, and macro catalysts suggests NIO may be entering a new upward cycle, offering investors multiple pathways for outsized returns—should expectations materialise.

Investment Strategies

Strategic investors considering NIO will find an array of compelling positioning opportunities across timeframes:

• Short-term: Technical indicators imply that NIO is approaching a support range ($3.58–$3.63) where risk-reward becomes increasingly favourable. Event-driven investors may seek tactical exposure ahead of the 3 June earnings release, as positive surprises in delivery volumes or margin performance could catalyse a swift upward re-pricing.
• Medium-term: For those with a three-to-twelve–month horizon, anticipated operational lifts—including the full ramp-up of Firefly deliveries, new battery swap stations, and international market launches—support a thesis of sustained recovery. Momentum strategies may also benefit as the stock approaches and possibly breaks through resistance ($3.74–$3.85), potentially triggering technical buying.
• Long-term: For growth-focused investors, NIO’s comprehensive ecosystem innovation, expanding model range, and international scale create long-term value creation catalysts. Fundamentals such as revenue CAGR, technology leadership in battery exchange, and exposure to secular electrification trends position NIO as a credible core holding in a diversified, future-oriented portfolio.
• Ideal Positioning: Given current price action and technical supports, opportunistic entries at current or slightly lower levels appear well justified for those seeking exposure ahead of major company- or sector-specific catalysts. The structure of recent trading highlights NIO’s responsiveness to positive operational surprises, making accumulation at technical lows both prudent and promising.

Is it the Right Time to Buy NIO?

In summary, NIO’s compelling combination of refreshed operational momentum, best-in-class technological innovation, strategic international expansion, and attractive relative valuation set the stage for a significant recovery narrative. The company’s resilient delivery growth and expanding addressable market, coupled with its upcoming catalysts—including the transformative Firefly debut and continued battery swap roll-out—highlight a business that is successfully repositioning for the next wave of EV sector leadership.

Despite ongoing losses and sector volatility, NIO’s low valuation and strong underlying fundamentals seem to represent an excellent opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the dynamic electric vehicle space. With robust support levels, improving technical signals, and analyst consensus pointing to material upside, the rationale for renewed interest in NIO has rarely been stronger.

For NZ-based investors searching for growth opportunities beyond domestic shores, NIO stands out as a liquid, innovative, and strategically positioned company, well aligned with the defining energy and mobility trends of the next decade. While prudent risk management remains essential, NIO’s current positioning and emerging catalysts justify a confident, optimistic perspective for the periods ahead.

In this context, NIO seems poised to enter a new bullish phase—one that discerning investors may wish to take seriously as a potential cornerstone for forward-looking, high-growth portfolios.

How to buy NIO stock in New Zealand?

Buying NIO shares online is both straightforward and secure for New Zealand investors, thanks to access to reputable, regulated brokers. Today, you can choose between two main methods: buying real NIO shares (“spot buying”) for traditional investing, or trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs) for a more flexible, leveraged approach. Both methods can be executed entirely online, from your computer or mobile. Your funds and assets are protected by regulatory standards. To help you make the best choice, a detailed broker comparison tailored for NZ investors is available later on this page.

Spot buying

Spot buying means purchasing actual NIO shares, which are then held for you by your broker in your name. This straightforward approach suits long-term investors and offers direct ownership, including voting rights and potential future dividends (though NIO currently pays none). Fees for spot buying on US stocks with NZ-based brokers are usually a low fixed commission—typically around NZ$5 – NZ$15 per trade.

Example: Spot Buying NIO Shares

If the NIO share price is US$3.68, you can buy about NZ$1,000 ÷ (US$3.68 × NZD/USD 1.62) ≈ 170 shares with a NZ$1,000 investment (assuming NZD/USD exchange rate 1.62 and including a NZ$5 brokerage fee).

✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your holding is now worth NZ$1,100.

Result: +NZ$100 gross gain, that’s +10% on your investment (excluding FX movements).

Trading via CFD

CFD trading lets you speculate on NIO’s share price movements without owning the actual shares. CFDs offer the ability to use leverage, meaning you can access a larger market position for a smaller upfront commitment. However, be aware CFDs also carry higher risks. Main fees are the spread (the broker’s margin between buy/sell prices) and overnight financing if you hold the position past market close.

Example: Trading NIO with CFDs

You place NZ$1,000 on a NIO CFD with 5x leverage—so your market exposure becomes NZ$5,000.

✔️ Gain scenario: If NIO’s share price moves up 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.

Result: +NZ$400 profit (on your NZ$1,000 margin, before fees and currency conversion).

Final advice

Before investing, it’s important to compare brokers based on their fees, available markets, trading tools, and regulation—especially as conditions vary widely for NZ residents. Whether you choose straightforward spot buying for steady wealth-building, or the flexibility and risk of CFDs for active market trading, the right method depends on your personal goals and risk profile. Refer to the broker comparison further down this page to find the option best suited to your needs.

Our 7 tips for buying NIO stock

The latest news about NIO

NIO reported a record 53% year-on-year growth in vehicle deliveries for April 2025. This marks 23,900 vehicles delivered in April alone, with a cumulative 65,994 vehicles for 2025 so far (+44.5% over the previous year), which demonstrates NIO’s positive operational momentum in the highly competitive EV segment. This consistent expansion in its customer base underpins revenue growth and signals resilient demand across global markets, providing reassurance for NZ-based investors seeking exposure to the EV sector’s growth story.

The launch of the premium Firefly brand commenced at the end of April, supporting NIO’s ambitious diversification. Firefly—NIO’s new high-end electric marque—is set for a European expansion in Q3 2025, which aligns with NIO’s strategy to consolidate share across multiple market segments and geographies. Such a move is particularly relevant given New Zealand’s import-led EV market and the nation’s growing appetite for premium electric vehicles, positioning NIO as a potential future supplier or market influencer in the Australasian region.

NIO’s strategic partnership with battery giant CATL is advancing battery swap technology, targeting 2,000 new stations in 2025. This collaboration represents a technological edge and infrastructure investment directly benefiting NIO’s scalability and user experience. Battery swapping is a unique differentiator, with China’s national objective of 16,000 stations by end-2025, and as similar infrastructure advances throughout Asia-Pacific, New Zealand investors can anticipate robust innovation diffusion with relevance to local adoption trends and technological collaboration opportunities.

Financial analysts remain constructive, with a consensus price target implying over 40% upside from current levels. The latest analyst consensus sets a target of $5.15 per share, well above the current market price of $3.68, and is based on forecasts of strong revenue growth for 2025 (+51.4% vs 2024). With three “Buy” recommendations among sixteen experts and the stock’s recent underperformance over the last year, NZ-based portfolio managers may see current levels as an opportunistic entry point for medium-term growth, subject to typical sector and company risks.

NIO’s NYSE/HKEX/SGX multi-listing structure provides accessible international exposure for New Zealand investors. While NIO currently has no direct distribution or operational footprint in New Zealand, its triple-market listing and status as a widely traded ADR on NYSE enable local funds, brokers, and retail investors to gain transparent access. The company’s global market ambitions and the Chinese government’s backing for EV technology further support the case for ongoing relevance to the New Zealand investment community, especially as the local EV sector matures.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.