Should I buy Glencore stock in 2025? A New Zealand Perspective

What is Glencore?

How much is the Glencore stock?

The price of Glencore stock is rising this week. As of 30 May 2025, Glencore shares are trading at 277.90p, up 2.15% over the last 24 hours and showing a solid weekly gain. The company holds a market capitalisation of £32.51 billion, with an average three-month trading volume of 55 million shares. Glencore’s forward P/E ratio stands at 14.53, offering investors a dividend yield of 2.91%. While the stock’s beta is currently unavailable, the recent uptick highlights renewed interest—investors in New Zealand should note Glencore’s volatility as both a risk and an opportunity for portfolio growth.

Our full analysis on the Glencore stock

Having thoroughly reviewed Glencore’s latest financial results and dissected the stock’s trajectory over the past three years, we have leveraged a suite of financial indicators, technical signals, sector market data, and competitor benchmarks—integrated through our proprietary analytical algorithms. This rigorous evaluation points to key strengths and potential inflection points for the company. So, why might Glencore stock once again become a strategic entry point into the global commodities space in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Glencore PLC (LSE: GLEN) currently trades at 277.90p as of 30 May 2025, representing a resilient upward movement, with a robust intraday gain of +2.15% (+5.85p). Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has demonstrated notable volatility, ranging from a low of 205.00p to a high of 489.30p, underscoring its dynamic response to shifting commodity prices and sectoral trends.

Several positive catalysts have shaped performance in recent months. Notably, the successful completion of the $7 billion Elk Valley Resources (EVR) acquisition in July 2024 cemented Glencore’s leadership in metallurgical coal—a key commodity for steelmaking. The group announced a $1 billion share buyback programme for 2025, signalling continued confidence in underlying cash flows and enhancing shareholder value.

From a macro perspective, the current environment remains fundamentally constructive for diversified commodity players. Structural undersupply in critical metals, accelerating global energy transition policies, and the growing role of battery and renewable technologies all create sustained demand for Glencore’s key products (copper, cobalt, zinc). Additionally, recent upgrades in analyst recommendations—including Morgan Stanley’s “Overweight”—highlight strengthening investor sentiment. The context is therefore one of measured optimism, with macro and micro factors increasingly aligned.

Technical Analysis

Glencore’s technical structure has evolved compellingly into Q2 2025. As of 30 May 2025:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14d): 60.16 — essentially neutral, but leaning towards bullish territory, suggesting headroom before entering overbought conditions.
• MACD (12,26,9): 2.65 — currently registering a short-term sell signal, potentially flagging near-term consolidation.
• Moving Averages:
• 20-day: 262.34p (Buy Signal)
• 50-day: 267.04p (Buy Signal)
• 100-day: 303.64p (Sell Signal)
• 200-day: 344.46p (Sell Signal)

The stock’s persistence above its 20- and 50-day moving averages, while still beneath longer-duration averages, suggests a classic recovery setup. Technically, price action is finding robust support at 265.90p, with a nearby resistance at 279.25p. The ongoing consolidation above key short-term averages can often precede breakouts, and the confluence of multi-month supports provides downside protection that will appeal to risk-conscious investors.

Momentum indicators now favour a bullish reaccumulation scenario, with the technical “structure” oriented towards intermediate recovery. This positioning offers an advantageous entry for those targeting a medium-term move back toward the next resistance cluster.

Fundamental Analysis

Despite a cyclical net loss in 2024 ($1.634 billion, versus a $4.280 billion profit in 2023), Glencore’s fundamentals remain particularly robust. Revenues reached $230.944 billion in 2024 (+6% YoY), while operating cash flows rose a solid 11% to $10.529 billion, underlining resilient operating leverage. The EBITDA decline (-16%, to $14.358 billion) was driven principally by lower thermal coal prices, a factor broadly anticipated by the market given 2023’s price normalisation.

Glencore’s forward-looking valuation stands out in a sector not historically viewed as “cheap”:

• Forward P/E: 14.53 — moderate for the sector, offering a discount to many peer mining conglomerates considering its diverse commodity mix.
• Dividend Yield: 2.91% — notable for offering sturdy income in addition to capital appreciation potential.

Strategically, Glencore’s unique dual business model—combining world-class trading operations with direct mining exposure—empowers it to profit from price volatility, while also mitigating downside risks. The group’s recent acquisition of EVR further strengthens its position in metallurgical coal, expanding exposure to energy transition-driven demand.

Crucially, Glencore is a leader in key “future-facing” metals: copper, cobalt, and zinc. These commodities are essential for electrification, renewables, and battery technologies, placing the company firmly at the centre of structural global demand. With a projected compound annual growth rate of ~4% through 2028 (in copper-equivalent terms) and a strong slate of global projects—Argentina identified as a new copper frontier—the growth outlook appears underappreciated.

Volume and Liquidity

Liquidity remains a major strength, with Glencore’s average daily volume at 55 million shares over the past quarter—making it one of the most actively traded names on the London Stock Exchange. Such depth allows for high-conviction trades, efficient price discovery, and the capacity for large institutions and asset managers to establish or adjust positions without market disruption.

The stock’s sizeable float (circa 11.97 billion shares outstanding) accommodates dynamic valuation resets and renders it responsive both to sector-specific news flow and macroeconomic shifts. This deep and active trading base is a clear marker of confidence, often making Glencore a first-mover during sector rallies.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Looking ahead, a variety of identified catalysts suggest scope for continued outperformance:

• Copper Production Recovery: Management has guided for a strong H2 rebound after Q1’s 30% volume dip (the second half is forecasted to contribute 58% of annual output), potentially triggering further earnings upgrades.
• EVR Integration: The completed $7 billion acquisition is now expected to deliver synergies and volume gains in high-margin metallurgical coal.
• Energy Transition Exposure: Glencore’s concentrated position in copper, zinc, and cobalt directly leverages the global shift to renewables, EVs, and battery storage—sectors included in NZ’s major infrastructure outlook for the decade ahead.
• Shareholder Returns: The 2025 capital returns package ($2.2 billion in buybacks and dividends) reinforces management’s confidence and improves the risk/reward profile.
• Geographic Diversification: Expansion into Argentina and other growth markets provides multi-decade growth potential, decoupling the company from any single-country or commodity cycle.
• ESG Initiatives: Glencore continues to pivot towards more sustainable mining and trading practices, a point of growing importance for institutional and retail investors alike.

Analyst consensus further supports the optimistic case: the average 12-month target price stands at 516.25p, representing significant upside from current levels, with recent targets clustered between 350p and 530p.

Investment Strategies

• Short Term: For tactical investors, the recent technical rebound offers an attractive swing-trading window, especially given price action’s position above its short-term moving averages and near strong support at 265.90p. Upcoming H2 copper updates and EVR performance announcements act as clear, time-limited catalysts.
• Medium Term: As copper production normalises and integration synergies emerge, the case for a re-rating through 2025 gathers weight. Momentum traders may see optimal entry in this consolidation zone before the market begins to price in next cycle growth.
• Long Term: For long-term holders and institutional investors, Glencore’s competitive moat—spanning trading, mining, and future-facing metals—underpins a secular growth story. The company’s robust free cash flow generation, proven acquisition track record, and sizable capital returns policy provide ample justification for continued portfolio inclusion. With New Zealand’s increasing interest in exposure to global decarbonisation and infrastructure, Glencore offers an outstanding avenue for alignment with megatrends.

The technical positioning at strong multi-month support, combined with looming operational and sectoral catalysts, means timing currently appears favourable for building or increasing positions.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Glencore?

• Strategic Positioning: Dual leadership in trading and mining delivers unique resilience and upside.
• Future-Facing Metals: Core exposure to copper, cobalt, and zinc directly addresses structural global demand.
• Operational Growth: Recent EVR acquisition and upcoming copper rebound create visibility on outperformance.
• Attractive Valuation: Moderate forward P/E, nearly 3% dividend yield, and consensus price targets collectively imply undervaluation.
• Robust Liquidity: Deep volume and float encourage institutional participation and efficient trading.

As the market awaits a production recovery, capitalises on energy transition momentum, and digests strong capital return plans, the stage seems set for a new bullish chapter. Forward-looking technicals, healthy underlying fundamentals, and directional catalysts strongly suggest renewed interest is justified at these price levels. For investors seeking exposure to a global leader at a potential inflection point, Glencore appears to represent an excellent opportunity aligned with both short-term momentum and sustainable long-term growth.

This confluence of strengths—strategic execution, sector megatrends, and technical recovery—reinforces the view that Glencore may be entering a new bullish phase with considerable upside potential for well-positioned investors in 2025.

How to buy Glencore stock in NZ?

Buying Glencore shares online is both simple and secure for New Zealand investors when you choose a regulated broker. You have two main choices: buying the shares outright (spot buying) or trading with Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allow you to speculate on price movements with leverage. Both methods are accessible through user-friendly online platforms, with your funds and assets protected by local or international regulations. Before you begin, it’s smart to compare broker fees and features—a comparison of top NZ brokers is available further down this page.

Spot Buying

Spot buying means purchasing Glencore shares directly through your broker. You will own real shares, becoming a part-owner of Glencore and eligible for potential dividends. In New Zealand, local brokers typically charge a fixed commission per trade—usually between NZ$3 and NZ$15, depending on the platform.

Example

Suppose Glencore shares trade at 277.90p on the London Stock Exchange (approximately NZ$5.75 per share, exchange rates may vary). With a NZ$1,000 investment and a brokerage fee of NZ$5, you could buy around 173 shares.

✔️ Gain Scenario

If the share price rises by 10%, your investment is now worth NZ$1,100.
Result: +NZ$100 gross gain—a 10% return on your investment.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading lets you speculate on the price of Glencore shares without directly owning them. CFDs offer leverage, often up to 5x for major shares, meaning you can amplify your market exposure. Instead of a fixed commission, you’ll pay a spread (the small difference between buying and selling prices), and overnight financing fees if you hold positions beyond a day.

Example

With NZ$1,000 and 5x leverage, you can open a CFD position equivalent to NZ$5,000 exposure to Glencore shares.

✔️ Gain Scenario

If Glencore’s share price climbs 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: +NZ$400 gain on your NZ$1,000 margin (excluding fees).

Final Advice

Before investing, always compare brokers’ fees, platforms, and support—costs can vary widely and affect your returns. Your choice between spot buying and CFDs should match your investment goals, risk appetite, and time horizon. For help choosing, see the broker comparator further down the page. Happy investing!

Our 7 tips for buying Glencore stock

The latest news about Glencore

Glencore shares posted a robust short-term rebound, trading above 20- and 50-day moving averages. The stock closed at 277.90p on 30 May 2025, up 2.15% intraday, bolstered by technical buy signals on short-term moving averages. These chart patterns suggest sustained near-term momentum, reflecting improved sentiment among traders. For New Zealand investors and financial professionals, Glencore's listing on the UK market provides diversification and direct access via LSE, which is relevant from a portfolio allocation perspective considering regional market conditions.

Glencore confirmed a $1 billion share buyback programme for 2025, underscoring confidence in its financial strength. In its latest official communication, the company announced an additional return to shareholders, supplementing regular dividends and highlighting management’s belief in Glencore’s underlying value. This initiative is notable for NZ-based investors searching for robust capital return policies and reliable dividend flows from their overseas holdings, enhancing both total return prospects and defensive attributes.

The recently completed $7 billion acquisition of Elk Valley Resources adds significant metallurgical coal volumes to Glencore’s portfolio. This strategic purchase expands Glencore’s presence in premium-grade coal supply chains vital for the steel industry across Asia-Pacific, a region where New Zealand's infrastructure and manufacturing sectors are closely integrated. For the NZ market, reliable access to critical raw materials contributes indirectly to economic resilience in construction and industry, while also diversifying Glencore’s revenue streams amidst shifts in global energy and commodity demand.

Market consensus remains notably constructive, with leading analysts such as Morgan Stanley upgrading Glencore to "Overweight" and forecasting substantial upside. The latest targets range up to 530p, with a consensus at 516.25p as of late May, implying significant appreciation from current levels. Such positive sentiment, validated by credible experts, serves as a confidence booster for New Zealand investors weighing international blue chip exposure, especially given the company’s essential role in global minerals trading and supply.

Glencore’s ongoing operational focus on energy transition metals, including copper, zinc, and cobalt, aligns strongly with New Zealand’s climate goals and infrastructure plans. Despite a 30% dip in copper output in Q1 2025, guidance points to a second-half recovery and enduring exposure to green-economy commodities. These metals are integral to NZ’s electrification, battery storage, and renewable projects, tying Glencore’s fortunes to growth sectors relevant for regional policy and investment themes.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.