Should I buy Carvana stock in 2025?

What is Carvana?

How much is the Carvana stock?

The price of Carvana stock is declining this week. Currently, Carvana (CVNA) is trading at $319.65 USD, reflecting a slight 24-hour drop of 0.21% and a notable weekly decline of 5.76%. The market capitalisation stands at $68.59 billion, with a three-month average trading volume of 4.87 million shares. The stock’s P/E ratio is elevated at 111.91, there is no dividend yield, and its beta is 2.72, indicating substantial volatility. Given the strong recent growth yet high price swings, Carvana presents dynamic opportunities alongside considerable risks for NZ investors watching US markets.

Our full analysis on the Carvana stock

We have undertaken a comprehensive review of Carvana’s most recent financial results alongside the stock’s remarkable journey over the past three years, leveraging a blend of financial indicators, technical trend analyses, market intelligence, and peer benchmarking via proprietary algorithms. Carvana’s story has become one of striking growth, operational turnaround, and sector disruption, challenging traditional assumptions about the used vehicle market and digital retail. So, why might Carvana stock once again become a strategic entry point into the US tech-enabled automotive retail sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Carvana (NYSE: CVNA) has delivered an exceptional return profile since its nadir, currently trading at USD $319.65 as of 30 May 2025. The stock’s 52-week range—$97.55 to $323.57—highlights not merely strong absolute performance but also its volatility and capacity to outperform. While the past month saw a pullback of -26.91%, this correction follows a meteoric 1-year gain of +204.28% and a year-to-date rise of +57.18%, underpinning robust underlying investor enthusiasm.

Recent operational milestones reinforce this positive narrative. In Q1 2025, Carvana posted record revenues of $4.23 billion (up 38% YoY) and a net profit of $373 million, trouncing consensus analyst estimates. The exponential 46% YoY growth in vehicle units sold and the expansion of same-day delivery to new US metro areas such as Denver signal enduring demand and successful execution. The company’s steady improvements are occurring against a sectoral backdrop of normalising interest rates, persistent post-pandemic digitalisation, and a tight US used car supply, all of which structurally favour well-capitalised, agile players like Carvana.

Looking abroad, especially from a New Zealand investment perspective, this positions CVNA as a global digital disruptor in a sector ripe for digital transformation and cross-border thematic allocation.

Technical Analysis

The technical setup for Carvana is highly constructive. The 14-day RSI of 66.53 signals strong upward momentum, but remains just below overbought thresholds—indicative of persistent buying interest without market euphoria. The MACD reading of +21.18 provides further bullish confirmation, as does the recent breakout above well-established resistance at $260, a level that now serves as underlying support.

Current price action sits comfortably above both the 50-day ($231.86) and 200-day ($213.36) moving averages, signifying a long-term uptrend reinforced by medium-term consolidation. The primary support zone lies at $275.26—a technical anchor that has repeatedly absorbed selling pressure during recent drawdowns. Monthly resistance in the $342 region represents the next test for momentum-driven breakouts, and with volatility increasing as Carvana’s story unfolds, the stage appears set for renewed upward movement on any incremental catalyst.

Overall, the confluence of positive momentum, robust support, and healthy technical structure suggests that Carvana may be entering a new bullish accumulation phase.

Fundamental Analysis

On fundamental grounds, Carvana’s turnaround is particularly noteworthy. The company’s Q1 2025 revenues of $4.23 billion reflect 38% annualised growth—a scale unusual among mature consumer cyclical companies. The bottom-line inflection is even more pronounced, with adjusted EBITDA rising to $488 million (11.5% margin, up from 7.7% previously), yielding net income well above expectations.

This growth is not merely driven by top-line expansion but also by operational leverage and margin optimisation—hallmarks of a business model transitioning from scale-up to sustained profitability. The adjusted EPS of $1.51 (vs. $0.67 expected) highlights an ongoing pattern of positive earnings surprises.

While Carvana’s trailing P/E of 111.91 stands above sector averages, such a valuation is consistent with a high-growth, asset-light disruptor commanding a leadership position in US automotive e-commerce. Notably, consensus estimates forecast EPS in 2025 ($3.42-$3.46) and 2026 ($4.99-$5.02) rising substantially, with c. 30% upside potential implied by some forward-looking price targets ($415 range).

Carvana’s structural strengths—innovative digital platform, logistics network, powerful proprietary brand, and successful expansion playbook—combine to suggest that valuation premium is increasingly justified by transformed fundamentals.

Volume and Liquidity

Trading dynamics continue to validate institutional interest in Carvana. The 65-day average daily volume is 4.87 million shares, underscoring active market participation and ample depth to absorb volatility. The current session saw 2.1 million shares changing hands (43% of average)—signifying healthy rotation during technical consolidations and cyclical profit-taking, not structural weakness.

With a public float of 122.6 million shares and a short interest at 7.48% of float, Carvana also benefits from a “dynamic” valuation environment where positioning shifts can catalyse outsized price moves—particularly as non-believers cover or momentum buyers step in. This liquidity profile positions Carvana for robust price discovery and enhanced responsiveness to upcoming catalysts.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several powerful catalysts underpin Carvana’s forward journey:

• Product and Geographic Expansion: Ongoing roll-out of same-day delivery and tech-enabled auto vending towers exemplifies operational scaling with customer-centric innovation.
• Favourable Tariff Environment: Prospective US tariffs on imported new vehicles may further elevate demand for high-quality used vehicles, indirectly benefiting Carvana’s addressable market.
• Margin Enhancement: Management’s mid/long-term EBITDA margin target of 8-13.5% looks increasingly achievable given demonstrated operating efficiency.
• Platform Innovation: Continued investment in proprietary technology and digital customer journey cements Carvana’s features advantage in an historically slow-to-change sector.
• Sector Tailwinds: Rising digital penetration, evolving consumer preferences, and possible regulatory incentives for sustainable mobility all generate further upside, especially for a nimble leader like Carvana.
• Analyst revisions: Consensus has trended more positive, with 21 analysts rating the stock a “Moderate Buy/Overweight,” and price targets revised upwards in the face of strong execution.

Collectively, these drivers reinforce a scenario where Carvana’s growth story sustains, with significant scope for further upside re-rating on operational delivery or positive external developments.

Investment Strategies

Carvana’s profile supports a range of investment horizons and entry strategies:

• Short-term:
• The pullback from recent highs (c. -27% in May) provides a potentially attractive entry, especially as the stock consolidates above its previous resistance (now support) at $260.
• Active traders may focus on momentum signals and potential “breakout” above the $342 resistance, with volatility offering scope for tactical gains.
• Medium-term:
• The next round of quarterly results, expansion into additional US/Canada metro markets, or regulatory changes could all spur further price momentum.
• Medium-term investors might consider building positions ahead of identified catalysts or on technical dips near support ($275).
• Long-term:
• Carvana’s proven business model, entrenched market position, and robust earnings trajectory underpin an attractive, long-term growth thesis.
• Structural tailwinds—digitalisation, vehicle turnover rates, cross-border potential—could allow for multi-year compounding as management delivers on margin and scale targets.

In all approaches, disciplined sizing and awareness of sector volatility remain prudent.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Carvana?

In summary, Carvana presents a compelling blend of momentum, innovation, and operational delivery at a moment when its sector leadership is being both validated by results and rewarded with increasingly positive market sentiment. The recent technical correction appears more a function of healthy consolidation than structural risk, while the company’s fundamentals—accelerating revenues, margin expansion, and robust earnings trajectory—justify renewed investor interest at current levels.

Looking ahead, Carvana’s outstanding growth, margin improvement potential, and penetration of a vast, shifting US auto retail market all point toward additional upside. The consensus among professional analysts, as well as the repeated pattern of outperformance, reinforce this constructive outlook.

For investors seeking exposure to transformational stories at the intersection of technology, mobility, and consumer behaviour, Carvana at these levels seems to represent an excellent opportunity for consideration—whether for tactical exposure or a more strategic, long-term holding. As always, comprehensive risk management and alignment with individual objectives are essential.

Carvana’s resurgence in both fundamentals and investor interest suggests that 2025 may be remembered as the year when the company’s digital disruption thesis is fully recognised—offering a powerful entry point for those prepared to participate in the next chapter of automotive retail innovation.

How to buy Carvana stock in New Zealand?

Buying Carvana (CVNA) shares online from New Zealand is simple and secure when you use a licensed, regulated broker. There are two primary ways to invest: you can opt for direct share ownership (spot buying), giving you full shareholder rights, or gain exposure via Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allow for leveraged trading without owning the underlying asset. Each approach suits different investor needs and risk profiles. To help you find the solution that fits you best, we provide a detailed broker comparison further down the page.

Spot Buying

A spot or “cash” purchase simply means buying real Carvana shares, which are listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Once purchased, these shares are held directly in your name inside your brokerage account—you become an actual shareholder. In New Zealand, reputable brokers typically charge a fixed commission per trade, often between NZ$3 and NZ$8.

Example

Suppose Carvana shares are trading at US$319.65 (roughly NZ$520 at recent exchange rates), and you wish to invest NZ$1,000. After a brokerage fee of NZ$5, you could buy about 1.9 shares (NZ$1,000 - NZ$5 = NZ$995; NZ$995 ÷ NZ$520 ≈ 1.9 shares). ✔️ Gain scenario: If the Carvana share price rises by 10%, your shares would now be worth NZ$1,100. Result: That’s a gross gain of NZ$100, or +10% on your initial investment.

Trading via CFD

CFD (Contract for Difference) trading lets you speculate on Carvana’s share price movements without owning the actual shares. With CFDs, you can use leverage—amplifying your buying power and potential returns (as well as risks). Fees include the spread (the broker’s buy/sell margin) and, for positions kept open overnight, daily financing charges.

Example

You open a CFD position on Carvana, using 5× leverage with a NZ$1,000 margin. This gives you market exposure of NZ$5,000. ✔️ Gain scenario: If Carvana’s share price rises by 8%, your total position gains 8% × 5 = 40%. Result: On your NZ$1,000 investment, you earn NZ$400 (excluding trading fees).

Final Advice

Before making any investment, it’s essential to compare brokers’ fee structures, currency conversion policies, and available features for New Zealand residents. Your choice between spot buying and CFDs should reflect your financial goals, risk appetite, and preferred investment style. For a tailored overview—including platform ratings and detailed costs—our up-to-date broker comparison is available further down this page. Happy investing!

Our 7 tips for buying Carvana stock

The latest news about Carvana

Carvana delivered record-beating Q1 2025 results, with revenue growth of 38% and a net profit of $373M. In its latest quarter, the company posted revenues of $4.232 billion, a substantial increase from the prior year, and achieved a net income of $373 million—its best Q1 result ever. Adjusted earnings per share almost tripled consensus expectations, reaching $1.51 versus $0.67 forecast. The company also reported a 46% year-over-year jump in units sold, reflecting elevated demand for its online used car retail platform. These robust financials are paired with significant margin expansion and demonstrate operational leverage, which are constructive signals for shareholders, including those in New Zealand who may access Carvana shares via international brokerage accounts.

Technical signals remain positive, with the stock recently breaking resistance and momentum indicators in bullish territory. Carvana’s shares reached a new 52-week high of $323.57 within the past week, supported by a bullish MACD and an RSI of 66.53, suggesting strong buying interest without yet appearing overbought. The price has decisively broken through a key resistance at $260, potentially paving the way for further gains. For investors in New Zealand monitoring global momentum stocks or engaging in technical trading strategies, these signals suggest ongoing strength despite recent volatility.

Analyst sentiment is notably optimistic, underlined by upwards revisions and strong “buy” ratings in the latest consensus. Of the 21 major analysts covering Carvana, a large majority currently rate it as “Moderate Buy” or “Overweight,” including 9 “Strong Buy” ratings. Target price updates set a 12-month average target at $300.67, with some upward potential, reinforced by the company’s demonstrated turnaround and profitability. Such endorsements from global equity research firms add weight for New Zealand institutional and retail investors seeking exposure to US growth equities with momentum in both fundamentals and sentiment.

Carvana's strategic execution is driving rapid market share growth, strengthened by ongoing innovation and operational enhancements. The recent expansion into same-day delivery in Denver and a record 133,898 unit sales for Q1 reflect Carvana’s effectiveness at scaling its disruptive business model. The EBITDA margin has improved significantly from 7.7% to 11.5% year-on-year, signaling continued focus on margin expansion and cost leverage. Given that New Zealand investors are often attuned to innovation-led US companies with scalable online models, Carvana stands out for its leadership in the digitization of car retail and might be considered a bellwether for trends that could eventually influence auto retail elsewhere.

Positive external catalysts and resilient market positioning provide a constructive outlook for Carvana's medium-term growth. Analysts cite continuous e-commerce adoption and the potential upside from US tariffs on imported new cars as important tailwinds, likely to drive more consumers toward used vehicles—a segment where Carvana is a leader. The company’s technological and operational excellence position it to benefit from these external shifts, and the company’s guidance suggests further margin improvement ahead. Although there is no direct New Zealand market presence, Carvana’s performance is of interest to Kiwi investors focused on global automotive disruption and digital commerce, particularly in the context of diversified international portfolios.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.