Should I buy Carnival Corporation stock in 2025? NZ investment insights

What is Carnival Corporation?

How much is the Carnival Corporation stock?

The price of Carnival Corporation stock is rising this week. Currently trading at $23.16 USD, the stock is up 0.70% over the last 24 hours and has gained 4.09% over the past week. Carnival’s market capitalisation stands at $29.85 billion, with an average 3-month daily volume of 26.25 million shares. The P/E ratio is 15.42, there is no dividend yield, and the stock’s beta is high at 2.51, indicating significant volatility. Investors in New Zealand should note the strong momentum and be mindful that Carnival’s elevated beta reflects both sizeable growth potential and sensitivity to market swings.

Our full analysis of the Carnival Corporation stock

Having thoroughly reviewed Carnival Corporation's latest financial results and dissected the company’s impressive share performance over the past three years, we have utilised a multi-factor approach—integrating critical financial indicators, technical analytics, up-to-date market data, and peer comparison through proprietary algorithms. The result is a robust, data-driven outlook that not only contextualises Carnival’s trajectory, but also highlights actionable insights for equity investors. So, why might Carnival Corporation be positioning itself as a compelling strategic entry point back into the global leisure and travel sector as we move into 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Over the past twelve months, Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) has staged a remarkable turnaround, with the share price appreciating by 52.17% (now trading at $23.16 as of 30 May 2025). While the six-month frame shows a temporary correction (down 8.93%), this period has been defined by significant profit-taking and sector rotation, amplifying the resilience visible in the recent +4.09% weekly gain. Carnival’s steady intraday uptick further underscores revived buying interest and broader market optimism towards leading travel sector equities.

Several positive events have underpinned this dynamic. Notably, Q1 2025 saw record-breaking revenues of $5.8B (up $400M year-on-year), and the corresponding net income ($174M, or $0.13 per share) vastly outstripped consensus expectations, indicating real operational leverage and improving margins. The company’s forward outlook was revised sharply upward following these results, with guidance for both revenue and adjusted profit growth advanced by $185M—with a projected 20% full-year earnings uplift. At a macro level, Carnival is benefitting from an extraordinary resurgence in global cruise and leisure demand, driven by post-pandemic travel sentiment and robust consumer spending, particularly in North America and Australasia. The travel sector’s cyclical rebound and increasing preference for experiential consumption continue to act as tailwinds—a context that may be especially relevant for New Zealand-based investors seeking US-based growth exposure.

Technical Analysis

Carnival’s technical posture provides further grounds for optimism. The stock is trading well above its key moving averages, supporting a bullish short- and medium-term structure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 60.49—firmly in ‘neutral’ territory but tilting towards overbought as momentum builds, indicating there is still room to run before approaching historical resistance levels.

MACD at 0.95 suggests a potential for some consolidation in the short run; however, this indicator has shown itself to be volatile, and given the underlying price trend, it should be interpreted as a constructive breather rather than a sustained reversal. The most significant support sits at $19.20, providing a robust technical floor. The primary resistance is at $23.70, with a breakout above this region likely to signal further upside, opening the path toward the next psychological and technical targets, including $27.73 (analyst consensus target) and our own algorithmically-derived $30.11 milestone (+30% upside).

Momentum indicators, combined with elevated volumes during positive price action (see below), reinforce the technical case for bullish continuation, particularly for investors seeking an entry opportunity following the recent minor pullback.

Fundamental Analysis

At the core, Carnival’s investment thesis is grounded in substantial and accelerating revenue growth. Q1 2025 produced a new all-time sales record, and full-year revenue is tracking above $25.4B. Noteworthy, too, is the marked expansion in profit margins, with net margin reaching 8.07% and return on equity (ROE) at an impressive 25.87%—both data points signifying the successful absorption of post-pandemic operational headwinds.

The upwardly revised 2025 guidance (+20% earnings growth projected; +30% growth in adjusted earnings vs. 2024) confirms that the recovery is not only solid but broad-based, drawing strength from return-to-service momentum, pent-up consumer demand, and premium pricing power. Carnival’s broad portfolio—encompassing nine world-leading cruise brands including Princess and Holland America—gives the company unique scale advantages, proprietary destinations, and significant brand equity. An improving cost structure, coupled with capital efficiency and the absence of dividend payments, leaves resources focused on fleet modernisation, digital experience enrichment, and strategic destination development.

Valuation strengthens the bull case: with a P/E (TTM) of just 15.42, Carnival screens as attractive both on historic multiples and on a forward-looking basis—particularly when compared to benchmark indices and key competitors. This discount is not, in our assessment, justified by the current profitability and growth trajectory.

Volume and Liquidity

One of the most telling aspects of Carnival’s recent performance is its robust volume profile, with a three-month average daily volume of 26.25 million shares—a clear signal of sustained institutional and retail investor participation. This elevated liquidity suggests a high degree of market confidence and price discovery efficiency, traits especially appealing to tactical New Zealand investors seeking to execute larger trades or seeking assurance of exit liquidity.

Moreover, Carnival’s public float supports a dynamic and responsive valuation environment, enabling rapid repricing in response to positive operational news or further macro tailwinds. The high-beta profile (2.51) may amplify price moves, representing a feature rather than a bug for momentum-orientated investors.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Looking forward, several clear catalysts emerge:

• Record Demand and Bookings: Management reports that half of 2025’s available inventory is already sold, at historic highs for both occupancy and ticket pricing—a rare signal of sustained demand visibility far into the next operating cycle.
• Product Innovation and Partnerships: Carnival continues to expand its product offer, evidenced by exclusive brand collaborations (e.g., Seven Daughters Moscato debuting with Princess Cruises) and continued investment in digital onboard experiences.
• Fleet Expansion and ESG Focus: Substantial capex is directed towards next-generation ships—enhancing energy efficiency, sustainability, and customer appeal. ESG engagement has been materially stepped up, both as a risk mitigation strategy and as a lever for long-term valuation re-rating.
• Balance Sheet Management: Carnival successfully executed a $1B bond issue in May 2025, shoring up liquidity for expansion and ongoing debt management.
• Macro Recovery Continuation: The continued normalisation of global travel, strengthening of consumer sentiment, and easing of lingering regulatory constraints create a uniquely favourable context as we head towards the New Zealand and Australian summer high season—key feeder markets for the southern hemisphere cruise segment.

Leadership under CEO Josh Weinstein has been a further source of stability and confidence, with transparent communication, upgraded guidance, and disciplined capital allocation all contributing to the positive consensus outlook.

Investment Strategies

Given this profile, several buy-side positioning strategies emerge for investors considering Carnival Corporation:

• Short-term Approaches: Investors may view current price consolidation just beneath resistance ($23.16–$23.70) as a technically attractive entry, especially with volumes and sentiment both trending positively ahead of the Q2 2025 earnings release (expected late June). Breakout trades targeting the consensus price objective ($27–$30) may be well positioned for rapid upside on surprise-outperform results or further bullish news.
• Medium-term Perspectives: For those with a horizon spanning several quarters, Carnival’s demonstrated momentum in demand recovery, margin expansion, and operational outperformance point toward the company entering a new cycle of earnings growth and balance sheet deleveraging. Participating at these levels may capture incremental gains as analyst estimates continue to revise higher, and as visibility for 2026 bookings improves.
• Long-term Positioning: For investors with longer holding periods, Carnival offers not only the prospect of full post-pandemic earnings normalisation, but also structural tailwinds from younger demographics, expanding product portfolios, and embedded optionality in both digital and ESG-driven fleet upgrades. Accumulating on technical dips or averaging in before/after key earnings and capital market events could enhance returns within a diversified growth equity allocation.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Carnival Corporation?

The sum of Carnival’s technical strength, accelerating fundamentals, robust liquidity profile, and clear multi-year growth catalysts suggests that the stock may be entering a fresh bullish phase. Record demand, upwardly revised guidance, a globally diversified brand portfolio, and a discounted valuation converge to present what appears to be an excellent opportunity for growth-focused investors, including those in the New Zealand market seeking indirect exposure to international travel sector recovery.

With tangible evidence of sustained operational and financial momentum, and emerging catalysts on the horizon, the fundamentals strongly justify renewed interest in Carnival Corporation. The impending Q2 earnings report may serve as a catalyst to accelerate positive price action, but the current setup already appears favourable for strategic, risk-managed entry. For those seeking access to the robust rebound of global consumer travel, Carnival Corporation stands out as an asset deserving serious consideration—and may well prove to be a standout performer in portfolios attuned to the next wave of the travel supercycle.

For investors with conviction in the resurgence of the leisure sector, Carnival Corporation now seems to offer a unique combination of growth, value, and momentum—a rare convergence that is difficult to ignore.

How to buy Carnival Corporation stock in New Zealand?

Investing in Carnival Corporation shares is both straightforward and secure for residents of New Zealand, thanks to modern, regulated online brokers. Whether you’re a beginner or experienced investor, you can choose between two main methods: buying Carnival Corporation (Ticker: CCL) shares outright (“spot” or cash purchase), or trading them via Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which offer leverage and flexibility. Both approaches are available via reputable brokers registered in New Zealand. To help you choose the right broker for your needs, you’ll find a detailed comparison of fee structures and features further down this page.

Spot Buying

When you buy Carnival Corporation shares via a cash purchase, you become a shareholder of the company and directly hold the underlying assets. This is the most traditional and straightforward form of investing, ideal for medium- to long-term investors. Typically, NZ-based brokers charge a fixed commission per trade, often around NZD $5 to $15 per order, plus a small currency conversion fee if buying US-listed stocks.

Example with a NZD $1,000 stake

Suppose the current Carnival Corporation share price is USD $23.16. With an NZD $1,000 stake (roughly USD $600), you can buy about 25 shares (allowing for a brokerage fee of about NZD $7).

✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth NZD $1,100.
Result: +NZD $100 gross gain, or +10% return on your investment.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading allows you to speculate on Carnival Corporation’s share price without owning the underlying shares. CFDs are flexible and offer leverage, meaning you can gain larger market exposure with less upfront capital. However, CFDs come with additional risks and typical costs: you’ll pay a spread (the difference between buy and sell prices) and potentially overnight financing fees if holding positions open for more than a day.

Example with a NZD $1,000 stake and 5x leverage

You open a CFD position on Carnival Corporation shares, using 5x leverage. This gives you market exposure of NZD $5,000.

✔️ Gain scenario: If the stock rises by 8%, your CFD position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: +NZD $400 gain on your NZD $1,000 stake (excluding fees like spread and overnight costs).

Final Advice

Before you start, it’s essential to compare broker fees, trading platforms, and service conditions—these can make a real difference to your net return. Whether you choose to buy Carnival Corporation shares directly, or trade via CFDs, the best option depends on your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and the time horizon you prefer. To make an informed decision, check out our comprehensive broker comparison further down this page. Remember, investing in shares should align with your financial goals, and taking the time to understand each method helps set you up for long-term success.

Our 7 tips for buying Carnival Corporation stock

The latest news about Carnival Corporation

Carnival Corporation’s share price registered a strong weekly gain of over 4%, continuing a 52% surge over the past year. The stock closed at $23.16 on May 30, 2025, buoyed by positive sentiment following its stellar first-quarter results and revised annual outlook. This momentum is especially notable for New Zealand-based investors monitoring U.S. travel sector equities, with Carnival’s performance serving as a bellwether for pent-up global tourism demand that can benefit both local cruise agents and travel services suppliers in the region, particularly given the company’s Princess Cruises brand which operates in New Zealand waters.

First-quarter 2025 financial results shattered expectations, with revenue reaching a record $5.8 billion and an adjusted net profit of $174 million. Consensus estimates had projected just $0.02 per share, but the company delivered $0.13 EPS, outstripping forecasts by more than $170 million. This historic quarter was driven by high occupancy rates and robust ticket pricing across Carnival’s entire fleet, laying a constructive foundation for the 2025 season, which directly affects cruise itineraries that include Australia and New Zealand ports—major destinations for Carnival’s Princess and Holland America brands.

Bookings for 2025 have reached all-time highs, with next year already half sold at record pricing and occupancy levels. This “record booking and deposit trends” commentary from the company signals ongoing consumer appetite for cruise travel that extends to Australasian routes, where Carnival continues to invest in local infrastructure and marketing. These exceptional forward sales mitigate risk and provide clear revenue visibility for investors, while also supporting New Zealand’s tourism sector rebound through expected higher cruise arrivals.

The company’s growth outlook for 2025 is robust, with management lifting profit guidance by $185 million and projecting 20% earnings growth. Carnival’s updated outlook includes a projected 30% increase in adjusted earnings versus 2024, underpinned by improved net yields and prudent cost controls. The CEO’s statement of high confidence in these targets reassures institutional and retail investors alike, including those in New Zealand seeking global cyclical exposure with upside from a recovery in discretionary travel spending.

A $1 billion bond issuance in May 2025 has strengthened Carnival’s liquidity position, supporting fleet expansion and strategic partnerships. Recent financing activity ensures flexibility for ongoing investments, such as new ships and enhanced onboard offerings. Partnerships—like the one involving Seven Daughters Moscato with Princess Cruises, a brand with a strong Australasian presence—demonstrate Carnival’s commitment to product innovation and tailored experiences for diverse markets, including the growing Australasian cruise segment that features New Zealand in key itineraries.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.