Should I buy Manawa Energy stock in 2025?

What is Manawa Energy?

How much is the Manawa Energy stock?

The price of Manawa Energy stock is rising this week. Currently, the share is trading at NZ$6.40, up 0.63% over the last 24 hours and 1.11% over the past week, with a market capitalisation of NZ$2.00 billion. Average trading volume over the last three months stands at 121,902 shares.

With a beta of 0.37, Manawa Energy displays low volatility, which may appeal to investors seeking stability in the New Zealand renewable energy sector.

Our full analysis of the Manawa Energy stock

Having conducted an exhaustive review of Manawa Energy’s most recent financial results and the distinctive trajectory of its stock over the past three years, we leveraged a coherent blend of our proprietary algorithms—integrating quantitative financial data, technical analysis, market sentiment, and sectoral benchmarking—to evaluate its positioning. This multi-layered approach offers both a granular and macro perspective on the opportunities that Manawa Energy may present as 2025 approaches. So, why might Manawa Energy stock once again become a strategic entry point into the booming New Zealand renewable energy sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Over the past twelve months, Manawa Energy (NZX: MNW) has delivered an impressive rally, with its share price appreciating by 54.59% to NZ$6.40 as of 30 May 2025. The stock has maintained robust momentum in 2025, gaining 23.08% in the last six months alone and showing a steady 1.11% increase in the past week. Intraday activity remains positive, with the latest session closing up by +0.63%.

The sharp upward move reflects not only general investor optimism in the New Zealand renewable energy space but is also a direct consequence of several critical company-specific catalysts—most notably, Contact Energy’s NZ$1.1 billion acquisition proposal for Manawa Energy, which secured Commerce Commission approval this May. This acquisition news ignited market confidence, underpinning a significant re-rating of the stock and aligning its performance with M&A-driven valuation trends. Moreover, these developments unfolded against a highly favourable macro backdrop: New Zealand continues to reinforce its commitment to renewable energy, further boosting sentiment for domestic clean energy producers like Manawa.

The market environment is further buoyed by global and domestic trends:

• New Zealand’s ambitious decarbonisation agenda and greenhouse gas reduction targets
• Ongoing infrastructure investment in clean energy
• Heightened investor appetite for low-beta, defensive assets amid periodic global volatility

As sector peers consolidate and global capital flows accelerate into renewables, Manawa Energy’s current market context seems to present a compelling entry for exposure to New Zealand’s energy transition.

Technical Analysis

A closer inspection of Manawa Energy’s technical indicators points to sustained bullish underlying momentum:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14): At 72.43, the RSI is elevated but not yet deeply overbought—suggesting strong buying interest, especially considering the context of corporate activity and sector rotation into renewables.
• MACD (12,26): Registered at 0.31 (slightly bearish on a standalone basis), but must be contextualised given the broader upward price surge and the stock’s tendency to respond primarily to fundamental news rather than short-term momentum shifts.
• Moving Averages: The share price is trading firmly above all key moving averages:
• 20-day: NZ$6.20 (Buy signal)
• 50-day: NZ$5.35 (Buy signal)
• 100-day: NZ$5.35 (Buy signal)
• 200-day: NZ$5.21 (Buy signal)

These levels reinforce the prevailing uptrend and suggest any near-term pullbacks could offer attractive entry points. The key technical support at NZ$6.28 has proven resilient, while resistance at NZ$6.51—the 52-week high—is within easy striking distance. The ability to sustain price action above all major averages points to strong institutional participation and increasing conviction among market participants.

• Clear price structure with higher highs and higher lows
• Above-average volumes on up-days
• A supportive technical base aligned with transformative corporate events

While MACD neutrality warrants measured optimism, the aggregate technical posture seems to support the view that Manawa Energy may be entering an advantageous setup for further upward momentum.

Fundamental Analysis

From a fundamental perspective, Manawa Energy offers significant structural strengths and positioned resilience, despite headline FY2025 profit headwinds:

• Revenue Base and Scale: FY2025 revenues reached NZ$490.76 million, confirming the robustness of its core hydroelectric business. With 26 hydro plants and 512 MW of installed capacity, Manawa Energy maintains one of the country’s most comprehensive renewable energy footprints.
• Temporary Profitability Dip: Notably, the reported EBITDA for FY2025 dropped to NZ$84 million and net profit was nearly flat (NZ$0.3 million), primarily due to exceptionally adverse hydrological conditions (unusually low rainfall impacting output). Importantly, these issues are largely cyclical in nature.
• Valuation Metrics: At a P/E of 61.78, Manawa Energy might appear richly valued on face value. However, this is skewed by temporary profit compression in FY2025. With improvement expected in hydrological conditions and transformative synergies from the Contact Energy acquisition, forward-looking multiples are anticipated to normalise. The underlying PEG and P/S ratios remain attractive versus the projected EBITDA rebound (Morningstar forecasts a near doubling of EBITDA over the next two years).
• Dividend Profile: A dividend yield of 2.36%, in a low-interest environment, continues to make Manawa Energy appealing for yield-oriented investors seeking sector stability and inflation-linked returns.

What sets Manawa Energy apart is its ‘infrastructure-like’ predictability combined with a pipeline of growth projects—particularly the Huriwaka Wind Project in the North Island and long-term CPI-indexed contracts with Mercury NZ. Its established brand, proven asset base, and secure contracts reinforce its defensive qualities, while development projects inject growth optionality.

Volume and Liquidity

One of the most notable hallmarks of sustained investor confidence is Manawa Energy’s robust trading activity. The average daily trading volume stands at 121,902 shares, underscoring active market participation, even when compared to local utilities and small-cap NZX standards. With a market capitalisation of NZ$2.00 billion and a float of nearly 313 million shares, the stock offers both liquidity and depth—facilitating dynamic price discovery and nimble entry or exit for investors across the spectrum.

• Liquidity Acts as a Valuation Buffer: High liquidity reduces transaction costs and cushions against sharp, erratic moves, strengthening the case for institutional positioning.
• Favourable Float Structure: Sufficiently large to allow meaningful investment, yet not excessively diluted, supporting upward moves in response to new catalysts.

The consistently high traded volumes—particularly on days with positive corporate announcements—demonstrate market endorsement of the company’s direction and validate the stock’s inclusion as a prospective buy within diversified portfolios.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Manawa Energy is currently located at the intersection of multiple bullish catalysts and long-term sector growth drivers:

• Short-term Catalysts:
• Finalisation of the Contact Energy acquisition, with regulatory clearance already granted, could unlock immediate premium upside for holders and reinforce sector-wide consolidation trends.
• Anticipated improvement in hydrological patterns for 2026 and beyond is expected to catalyse an earnings rebound, addressing the temporary softness seen this year.
• Medium- to Long-Term Growth Drivers:
• Wind and Hydro Expansion: The Huriwaka Wind Project and additional hydro developments are poised to boost capacity and revenue diversity, further embedding Manawa Energy’s leadership in New Zealand’s renewable sector.
• Positive Regulatory Backdrop: The government’s reinforcement of clean energy targets and supportive regulatory landscape is likely to underpin tariff stability and continued investment.
• ESG Focus: Sustainable investing continues to gather momentum, with Manawa Energy benefiting from increasing capital flows towards socially and environmentally responsible enterprises.
• Strategic Contracts: The inflation-indexed long-term supply agreement with Mercury NZ offers both revenue visibility and a hedge against cost escalation.
• Investor Sentiment: The combination of a transformative M&A event, structural sectoral tailwinds, and operational turnaround potential has notably altered investor sentiment. Analysts and institutional investors are now re-rating the company, with many projecting upside towards a fair value target of NZ$8.32 (a further 30% potential gain).

Investment Strategies

For investors seeking tactical and strategic entry into Manawa Energy, the current backdrop justifies renewed interest.

• Short-term Traders: May find opportunity as the stock consolidates near recent highs but remains below the acquisition offer price, with the added support of regulatory clearance for the Contact Energy deal. Any short-term dip to the NZ$6.28–NZ$6.40 support range could represent an ideal technical entry on pullbacks, ahead of formal deal completion or improved operational guidance.
• Medium-term Investors: Stand to benefit from ongoing sector rotation into renewables and anticipated recovery in core earnings throughout FY2026, supported by both the wind project pipeline and the unwinding of hydrological anomalies.
• Long-term Investors: Manawa Energy is well-positioned as a core holding for those seeking to align portfolios with the multi-decade electrification and decarbonisation trend. The combination of cash-yield, growth prospects, and acquisition-driven upside creates a trifecta of defensive and offensive portfolio characteristics.

Positioning at this juncture—either at current levels or on minor consolidations—enables participation in one of New Zealand’s most dynamic, future-proofed energy platforms.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Manawa Energy?

Summing up, Manawa Energy today stands at a confluence of technical strength, improving operational prospects, and powerful external catalysts. The stock’s remarkable resilience in the face of temporary challenges highlights both the quality of its underlying assets and management’s capacity to deliver in a changing environment. The recent acquisition proposal and regulatory approval introduce a lower-risk environment with clear price discovery, while medium-term prospects are underpinned by project expansion and regulatory tailwinds.

With robust liquidity, structural sector advantages, and the prospect of renewed EBITDA growth, Manawa Energy seems to represent an excellent opportunity within NZ’s high-growth renewable infrastructure landscape. The fundamentals justify renewed interest, particularly as the company is on the threshold of major transformation boosted by sector consolidation and multi-year national energy goals.

For investors seeking both stability and capital growth, Manawa Energy may be entering a new bullish phase—one that aligns with both current market optimism and the megatrend of sustainable power generation. The convergence of technical indicators, corporate catalysts, and sector momentum sets the stage for a compelling investment case in 2025 and beyond.

Manawa Energy is, without doubt, a stock to place under serious consideration for those looking to be exposed to the ongoing transformation and potential alpha generation within New Zealand’s renewable energy sector.

How to buy Manawa Energy stock in New Zealand?

Buying shares of Manawa Energy (MNW), a leading NZ renewable energy provider, online is a straightforward and secure process when you use a regulated broker. Today’s digital platforms let Kiwi investors buy actual shares (spot buying) or trade on price movements with Contracts for Difference (CFDs), all from your computer or mobile. Spot buying gives you direct ownership, while CFDs offer leveraged exposure. Both methods have advantages, depending on your investment goals. To help you choose the right solution, we’ve compared the leading NZ brokers further down the page.

Cash buying

A cash (or spot) purchase of Manawa Energy shares means you are buying real shares listed on the NZX and become an actual shareholder. This approach is popular for long-term investors who seek capital growth, dividends, and voting rights at company meetings. With online NZ brokers, fees are typically based on a fixed commission per order, often around NZ$5 to NZ$15 per trade.

Example

Manawa Energy is trading at NZ$6.40 per share. With a NZ$1,000 investment and a typical brokerage fee of NZ$5, you could buy about 155 shares:
NZ$1,000 - NZ$5 fee = NZ$995 investable, divided by NZ$6.40 ≈ 155 shares.

✔️ Gain scenario

If the price rises by 10%, your shares are worth NZ$1,100.
Result: Gross gain of NZ$100, or +10% on your investment, plus any dividends (excluding possible tax).

Trading via CFD

CFD (Contract for Difference) trading allows you to speculate on Manawa Energy’s share price movements without actually owning the shares. This method is popular with active traders, as it enables both long and short positions and access to leverage, amplifying gains and losses.
CFDs are subject to a spread (the small difference between buy/sell prices) and overnight financing costs if you hold positions for more than a day.

Example

You deposit NZ$1,000 and trade Manawa Energy CFDs with 5x leverage, giving you a market exposure of NZ$5,000.
If Manawa Energy’s share price rises 8%, your position gains 8% x 5 = 40%.

✔️ Gain scenario

You’d earn NZ$400 (excluding fees), a substantial return on your NZ$1,000 stake. Remember, leverage also increases risk, and you can lose more than your initial deposit.

Final advice

Before buying Manawa Energy shares or trading CFDs, it’s essential to carefully compare broker fees, platform user-friendliness, and extra services (like research and support)—these can significantly impact your results. Whether you choose to invest directly in shares for long-term growth or trade via CFDs for flexible, leveraged exposure depends entirely on your risk profile and financial objectives. To make a confident decision, check out our comprehensive broker comparison further down the page.

Our 7 tips for buying Manawa Energy stock

The latest news about Manawa Energy

Contact Energy’s proposed NZ$1.1 billion acquisition of Manawa Energy received Commerce Commission approval in May 2025. This regulatory green light is a significant milestone, removing a central hurdle for the transaction and signalling strong confidence in the combined entities’ ability to enhance New Zealand’s renewable electricity sector. The market reacted very positively to the announcement, driving Manawa Energy’s share price up by 1.11% in the week, with trading volumes remaining solid. The acquisition is now seen as the primary catalyst for the stock in the near term, supported by the optimism that the deal will bring operational synergies and renewed growth prospects.

Manawa Energy’s share price has outperformed the NZX over recent months, supported by robust upward technical signals. As of 30 May 2025, the stock closed at NZ$6.40, marking a 23% increase over the past six months and 54.6% over one year. The share price currently sits above major moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200-day), confirming a strong upward momentum and suggesting ongoing market confidence. The Relative Strength Index stands at 72.43, approaching overbought territory, while the key resistance level at NZ$6.51 remains in focus. These technical signals indicate persistent buying pressure and the potential for further upside in the short term.

Despite a disappointing FY2025 result due to adverse hydrological conditions, forward-looking projections remain constructive. Manawa reported EBITDA of NZ$84 million, down 42% year-on-year, and a marginal full-year net profit of NZ$0.3 million. While these figures fell short of expectations, management attributed the weakness to exceptionally low rainfall across its hydro assets—a sector-wide challenge. Nonetheless, industry analysts such as Morningstar maintain bullish medium-term forecasts, anticipating that EBITDA could double over the next few years as weather patterns normalize and operational performance improves, particularly with ongoing development projects in the pipeline.

Strategic development initiatives, including the Huriwaka wind project, reinforce Manawa Energy’s renewable credentials and growth trajectory. The company continues to expand its generation capacity with projects like the Huriwaka wind farm in the North Island, targeting greater energy diversification and enhanced supply security for New Zealand. This expansion strengthens Manawa’s profile as a leading domestic renewable generator, with 26 operational hydro stations and a total installed capacity of 512MW. These investments are also expected to support increased revenue stability and market share in a context of growing demand for clean energy.

Long-term offtake deals and low market volatility add to the investment appeal for local investors. Manawa Energy maintains stable cash flows through long-term contracts such as its CPI-indexed supply agreement with Mercury NZ, mitigating exposure to short-term wholesale electricity price swings. Combined with a notably low beta of 0.37 and a secure dividend yield of 2.36%, these factors make the stock particularly attractive for New Zealand-based portfolios seeking resilient exposure to the transition toward renewable energy.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.