Should I Buy Coinbase Stock in 2025? (NZ Perspective)

What is Coinbase?

How much is the Coinbase stock?

The price of Coinbase stock is falling this week. Currently trading at $248.84 USD, the stock is down 2.14% over the last 24 hours and has declined 8.5% for the week.

The beta of 3.62 indicates significant price volatility. Investors should note the elevated risk, but also consider the company’s leading position in the crypto exchange sector.

Our full analysis on the Coinbase stock

We have closely analysed Coinbase’s latest quarterly results and examined the stock’s risk-adjusted performance over the past three years. Leveraging our proprietary algorithms—which synthesize financial ratios, technical momentum, sector data, and comparative competitive analysis—we aim to identify key insights investors should consider. So, why might Coinbase stock once again become a strategic entry point into the digital asset and fintech sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Coinbase Global (COIN), the premier US-listed crypto exchange, has exhibited remarkable resilience and strategic maturation despite the inherent volatility of the crypto market. As of 29 May 2025, COIN trades at USD $248.84, reflecting a +5.15% gain year-on-year—outperforming several fintech peers and signaling strong investor conviction. Although recent weeks have seen some corrective movement (down -8.5% week-over-week and -15.99% over six months), it must be seen within the context of broader crypto asset consolidation and sector rotations impacting growth stocks globally.

Crucially, Coinbase’s inclusion in the S&P 500 in May 2025 marks a watershed moment. This recognition not only broadens institutional investor access but also fortifies the stock’s credibility as a bellwether for regulated crypto access. Meanwhile, the announcement that Coinbase holds custody over roughly 90% of Bitcoin ETF assets underscores its dominance and the ongoing institutionalisation of digital assets. These achievements are particularly notable at a time when the US policy environment is shifting toward constructive crypto regulation, led by an administration notably supportive of digital financial innovation.

Additionally, the company disclosed a cybersecurity incident affecting 69,000 clients—a challenge, but one that thus far appears effectively contained, with market impact mitigated by the positive S&P 500 development. For New Zealand investors with a forward-looking perspective, these factors collectively establish a backdrop of strong sector momentum and growing legitimacy for crypto infrastructure stocks.

Technical Analysis

Technical signals currently suggest Coinbase is approaching an inflection point with favourable risk/reward dynamics for new entry.

• Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14-day) at 59.51 remains in neutral territory, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions and thus highlighting runway for further upside if positive catalysts emerge.
• MACD (12,26) at 18.54 delivers a cautious signal; however, cross-confirmation with other indicators points to underlying macro support.
• Williams %R at -29.04 has switched to an overt buy signal, validating early-stage accumulation typically preceding bullish reversals.

Importantly, the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) all signal an upward trajectory, with current price levels above each key average. This alignment is a classic confirmation of medium-term bullish structure—a highly sought-after configuration for technical traders.

• Key support levels at $246.76 and $238.26 represent robust entry zones, while resistance bands at $258.94 and $317 indicate substantial upside targets. With COIN oscillating just above the nearest support, the stock seems primed for a technical rebound.
• Aggregated technical sentiment (11 bullish, 5 neutral, 6 bearish) confirms majority buy across quantitative models, strengthening the confidence of any buy-side strategy.

Fundamental Analysis

Beneath the volatility, Coinbase delivers robust growth and structural advantages:

• Revenue growth: Annual revenue for 2024 surged +115.04% ($2.93B to $6.29B), far outpacing nearly all listed exchanges and fintech competitors.
• Q1 2025 performance: Revenue of $2.0B, with adjusted EBITDA of $930M and adjusted net income of $527M. Although topline missed consensus by a small margin, solid profitability signals strong underlying business health, especially impressive given ongoing sector expansion investments.
• Valuation metrics: At a trailing P/E of 47.85, Coinbase trades at a premium, yet this reflects anticipated hyper-growth and its quasi-monopoly status in the regulated US crypto market. With consensus analyst target at $266.58 (+7.1% upside) and bullish cases to $323.49, valuation can be seen as justified—if not attractive—relative to the opportunity set.
• Structural moat: As the largest exchange for both retail and institutional clients, Coinbase enjoys significant network effects, a deeply trusted brand, broad product diversity, and rapidly expanding international partnerships (e.g., with Penrose Partners in Bermuda).
• Strategic expansion: Continuous innovation—whether by making on-chain economy more accessible, or leading in tokenization infrastructure—reinforces its competitive lead. In a landscape marked by regulatory clarity and surging capital-market adoption, Coinbase’s uniquely compliant platform positions it for enduring relevance.

Volume and Liquidity

Liquidity is a clear strength for COIN:

• Average daily volume is 11.08 million shares, placing COIN among the most actively traded US tech stocks. This ensures tight spreads, robust price discovery, and reduces slippage for both institutional and retail orders—a key consideration for NZ-based investors seeking reliable US market exposure.
• Market cap of $64.77B and composition within the S&P 500 further institutionalise order flow stability, while the available float supports dynamic valuation. Consistent high volume, even in correction phases, is a tangible sign of market conviction and makes technical setups more actionable.
• For those employing algorithmic or quantitative strategies, such liquidity and order book depth translate to enhanced execution quality—critical for timely entry and exit in a high-volatility sector.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Coinbase enters the second half of 2025 with a series of powerful tailwinds:

• ETF and institutional adoption: Coinbase’s custody role in 90% of Bitcoin ETF assets is transformative. As digital asset exposure is standardised within new asset classes (including US 401(k) plans and sovereign pensions), the platform stands to benefit from exponentially rising flows.
• Supportive regulatory winds: US regulatory pivot—marked by pro-crypto policy stances and pragmatic oversight—bolsters the case for mainstream adoption. For NZ investors, this implies a new phase of stability and global integration for leading crypto equities.
• Growth of the crypto sector: Bitcoin trading near historical highs and sustained user adoption across altcoins ensure strong transactional growth, directly benefiting Coinbase’s fee-based model.
• Product innovation and ecosystem building: Coinbase’s commitment to on-chain development, next-gen financial applications, and geographic diversification (notably via Bermuda expansion) sets the stage for new revenue verticals.
• ESG and security improvements: Ongoing enhancements to cybersecurity, transparency, and governance aim to mitigate previous risks and satisfy institutional due diligence.

Overall, these catalysts can generate durable new flows, re-rating potential, and reinforce the ‘network effect’ that is central to fintech market leadership.

Investment Strategies

Investors considering Coinbase can identify robust entry points across the short, medium, and long horizons:

• Short-term: With shares consolidating just above strong technical support ($246–$238), COIN is well-positioned for tactical rebounds, especially with any positive crypto or regulatory headlines on the horizon.
• Medium-term: Inclusion in the S&P 500 anchors buy-side demand and opens the stock up to passive flows from index-tracking funds. Anticipated crypto sector strength and ongoing US election year policy support form a favourable backdrop through the remainder of 2025.
• Long-term: For NZ investors seeking exposure to secular trends in digital assets, Coinbase’s dominant market share, regulatory standing, and relentless product alignment may deliver compounding benefits. Expansion into institutional services, global partnerships, and mainstream ETF integration all serve as potent long-term drivers.

For all approaches, the current setup—with price action near technical inflection points and ahead of multiple sector catalysts—seems to represent an excellent opportunity for strategic positioning in anticipation of a newly bullish phase.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Coinbase?

To summarise, Coinbase presents a compelling mix of positive momentum, sector leadership, and accelerating financial performance. The recent inclusion in the S&P 500 validates its institutional legitimacy, while imminent catalysts—such as expanded ETF services, ongoing crypto-sector adoption, and favourable US policy—offer abundant upside. With robust liquidity, a proven business model, and technical indicators converging on a renewed upward trajectory, the fundamentals justify renewed interest at current levels.

While recognising inherent volatility and the evolving risk landscape, the stock’s profile today appears especially attractive for investors seeking exposure to the dynamic intersection of technology, finance, and digital assets. In this light, Coinbase may be entering a new bullish phase, meriting serious consideration from investors intending to tap into the next wave of fintech and crypto-driven growth.

For enterprising, risk-aware investors—especially those in forward-thinking markets such as New Zealand—Coinbase stands out as a rare opportunity to gain high-quality exposure to a megatrend that continues to reshape global finance.

How to buy Coinbase stock in New Zealand?

Buying Coinbase shares online is now both straightforward and secure for New Zealand investors, thanks to regulated brokers operating under robust oversight. You have two main ways to access Coinbase stock: a spot (cash) purchase, where you directly own the shares, or trading via CFDs (Contracts for Difference), which lets you speculate on price movements using leverage. Each method has its own specific fees, advantages, and risk profile. To help you choose the option best suited to your needs and budget, we present a concise comparison of brokers and their conditions further down this page.

Spot Buying: Direct Share Ownership

A cash purchase means you buy Coinbase (COIN) shares outright on the US NASDAQ, and become a shareholder. Most NZ-friendly brokers charge a fixed commission per transaction—for example, typically around NZD $5–$10 per order when buying US-listed shares.

Example: Spot Share Purchase

If the Coinbase share price is USD $248.84 (approx. NZD $410, as at May 2025) and you invest NZD $1,000 (after fees), you can buy about 2 shares (2 × $410 = $820), with the remainder held as cash or put towards fees. With a brokerage fee of around NZD $5, your total spend would be about NZD $825.

✔️ Gain Scenario:
If the share price increases by 10%, your shares are now worth about NZD $902 (2 × $451).
Result: That’s a NZD $82 gross gain, or +10% on your investment (excluding FX and taxes).

Trading via CFDs

With CFD trading, you don’t own the Coinbase shares—instead, you bet on the share price moving up or down. This method lets you use leverage (borrowing to increase your exposure), typically with fees based on the spread (the broker’s margin between buy and sell prices) and daily overnight financing costs if you hold positions more than a day.

Example: Trading Coinbase via CFD

You open a CFD position on Coinbase with NZD $1,000 margin and apply 5× leverage, giving you a market exposure of NZD $5,000.

✔️ Gain Scenario:
If Coinbase shares rise by 8%, your position makes 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: That’s a NZD $400 gain on your NZD $1,000 stake (before considering spread and overnight fees). Remember: leverage amplifies losses as well as gains.

Compare Brokers and Make the Right Choice

Before investing, always compare the fees, currency exchange costs, and conditions of different brokers. Some may provide lower commissions for cash buys, while others offer better spreads on CFDs. Also, consider your risk profile and investment goals: spot purchases are best for long-term investors wanting real share ownership, while CFDs suit active traders looking for short-term market exposure with higher risk and reward.
You’ll find our detailed broker comparison further down this page—to help you choose with confidence.

Our 7 tips for buying Coinbase stock

The latest news about Coinbase

Coinbase was officially added to the S&P 500 index in May 2025, marking a major institutional milestone. This historic inclusion makes Coinbase the first crypto-native company to join the renowned index, which is closely tracked by institutional funds worldwide, including many that serve New Zealand investors. The S&P 500 listing is expected to bolster the stock’s liquidity and credibility, and could indirectly increase the presence of COIN within KiwiSaver portfolios and other diversified funds accessible to New Zealand residents, especially as global passive investment vehicles rebalance to reflect the change.

Technical indicators as of 29 May 2025 present a generally bullish outlook for Coinbase’s stock, with long-term moving averages showing buy signals. While short-term volatility has caused a recent weekly price drop of 8.5%, the share price remains above its key 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day simple moving averages. Technical sentiment is currently more optimistic than not, with 11 bullish signals against 6 bearish and 5 neutral, suggesting resilience despite macro volatility. This technical strength is relevant for professional New Zealand investors who may view technical entry points as critical in a volatile sector.

Coinbase reported Q1 2025 results showing robust profitability and adjusted EBITDA, underscoring operational resilience even as revenue slightly missed consensus forecasts. The company posted US$2.0 billion in revenue (just shy of analyst expectations), an adjusted EBITDA of US$930 million, and a net income of US$66 million. Notably, the adjusted net income figure of US$527 million highlights strong core profitability, which supports the stock’s case for both institutional and retail investors from New Zealand monitoring for blue-chip quality in the crypto-financial sector.

Coinbase’s influence over institutional Bitcoin access has increased, as it now safeguards 90% of assets in U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. This market position cements its role as an essential infrastructure provider for institutions globally—including those in Australasia—who seek secure digital asset exposure. For New Zealand wealth managers and funds increasingly interested in regulated crypto products, this leadership assures a degree of counterparty reliability and scalability, enhancing Coinbase’s appeal in the region as a partner or product component.

The regulatory environment in the U.S. has recently been supportive, with favorable policy signals boosting sentiment across crypto markets in which Coinbase operates. Statements by the current U.S. administration in support of cryptocurrencies have sharply improved the outlook for exchanges, driving optimism among international investors, including those in New Zealand, who depend on clear global regulatory signals. Such regulatory tailwinds reduce perceived legal risks for COIN and its distributed product suite, adding confidence for both direct foreign investors and those accessing U.S. equities through NZ-domiciled platforms.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.