Should I buy KMD Brands stock in 2025? Expert Guide for NZ Investors

What is KMD Brands?

How much is KMD Brands stock?

The price of KMD Brands stock is stable this week. As of now, the share trades at NZ$0.305, showing a 0.00% change over the past 24 hours and a -6.2% decline for the week. Market capitalisation stands at NZ$217.06 million, with an average daily volume of 400,506 shares traded over the last three months.

The company currently reports no Price/Earnings ratio due to losses and has a 0.00% dividend yield, while its beta of 0.41 indicates relative stability compared to the wider market. Investors should note that while volatility remains low, KMD Brands is navigating a challenging period with continued operational headwinds.

Our complete analysis of the KMD Brands stock

After conducting a rigorous review of KMD Brands' latest financial results and evaluating the stock’s performance over the past three years, our analysis incorporates a multi-dimensional blend of quantitative figures, technical signals, forward-looking market context, and competitive dynamics—all synthesized by our proprietary evaluation frameworks. As KMD Brands finds itself at a critical inflection point within the global outdoor and apparel sector, a key question arises: does KMD Brands stock offer a unique strategic entry point for investors seeking to capitalise on sector recovery and brand-driven growth in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Over the past year, KMD Brands (NZX: KMD, ASX: KMD) has witnessed a marked share price contraction, with the stock now trading at NZ$0.305 as of May 30, 2025. This reflects a -26.5% drawdown over the last six months and a -27.4% loss over twelve months. This weakness is not isolated to KMD; it mirrors the persistent headwinds across the broader consumer cyclical space, particularly within retail apparel, as high interest rates and shifts in consumer discretionary spending have dampened sentiment and moderated growth expectations.

Yet, amidst this softness, several positive signals emerge. First, consensus analyst targets remain robust, with a 12-month average price target of NZ$0.46 (+50.8% upside from current levels)—pointing to material potential for a retracement towards intrinsic valuation. Secondly, management optimism is visible through multiple insider purchases in April 2025, with executives acquiring over NZ$260,000 in open-market KMD shares, reaffirming internal conviction in the stock’s recovery prospects. The recent appointment of seasoned executive Brent Scrimshaw as CEO in March 2025 is further expected to usher in operational discipline and strategic clarity.

The macroeconomic backdrop, while still challenging, offers glimmers of improvement: inflation in Australasia is now stabilising, global leisure travel is rebounding, and outdoor activity trends remain deeply embedded in consumer lifestyles. As the operating environment normalises, outdoor and lifestyle brands with a dominant regional footprint and sticky customer bases—like KMD—seem poised for relative outperformance.

Technical Analysis

Technically, KMD Brands’ chart structure is approaching a critical juncture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 31.4, near oversold levels, which often signposts price exhaustion and the potential for a technical rebound. The MACD remains modestly negative (>–0.01), but a shift in short-term momentum is plausible should the stock find consistent support.

Current moving averages (20-day at NZ$0.31, 50-day at NZ$0.32, 100-day at NZ$0.34, and 200-day at NZ$0.38) all hover above the spot price, indicating that sentiment and momentum have yet to reverse. However, the stock has repeatedly found buyers around its 52-week technical floor at NZ$0.295—a level corresponding with both major support and capitulation lows. This formation increases the probability of a base-building phase, particularly given the extreme readings in momentum indicators and the theory of mean reversion.

Bullish entry scenarios could be reinforced by breakouts above the NZ$0.32–0.34 resistance band; a decisive move above these thresholds would likely catalyse a powerful upward leg, in line with institutional price targets. For investors interpreting technicals as a supplementary buy trigger, conditions appear to be aligning for a medium-term reversal.

Fundamental Analysis

On fundamentals, KMD Brands presents a case of cyclical recovery supported by structural strengths. Despite H1 FY25 losses (NZ$21.4 million net loss versus NZ$10.6 million YoY), headline revenue grew marginally to NZ$470.9 million (+0.5% YoY). Forward guidance estimates annual top-line growth of 4.4% CAGR over the next three years, underpinned by omnichannel investments, geographic expansion, and reinforced brand positioning.

While profitability remains challenged and the company’s earnings multiple is currently not meaningful due to negative earnings, KMD’s market capitalisation (NZ$217.06 million) stands at a clear discount to its brand value and global retail presence. Industry comparables with similar scale and multi-brand strategies are trading at materially higher revenue multiples, hinting at a significant disconnect between market price and recovery value.

KMD’s competitive advantage lies in its globally recognised owned brands—Kathmandu, Rip Curl, and Oboz—which command both heritage and market share in outdoor and surf lifestyle segments. These elite brands underpin high-margin product lines, repeat customer engagement, and resilience against undifferentiated competition. Furthermore, KMD’s projected reduction in net debt below NZ$50 million by July 2025 demonstrates both financial discipline and a commitment to balance sheet fortification—key for weathering sector slowdowns.

Volume and Liquidity

From a liquidity perspective, KMD Brands boasts solid daily trading volume, averaging over 400,000 shares per session (three-month average) across the NZX and ASX. Such volume correlates with strong institutional presence and helps dampen volatility, as reflected by the low beta reading of 0.41 versus the NZX index—providing both nimbleness and a stable environment for executing sizeable positions.

The large public float (over 711 million shares on issue) means there is ample supply for new entrants, yet the stock’s depressed valuation and above-average turnover signal ongoing reappraisal by both institutional and retail investors—conditions often preceding price inflection.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

• Digital and E-commerce Investment: The group is accelerating investment in digital platforms—enabling frictionless omni-channel engagement, personalisation, and margin-accretive online sales growth.
• Store Expansion and Operational Efficiency: Ongoing strategic expansion into growing APAC and South American markets, coupled with higher store productivity, underpins medium-term EBITDA upside.
• Brand Portfolio: Market leading positions in outdoor (Kathmandu), surf (Rip Curl), and performance footwear (Oboz) drive diversified cross-sell and insulation against regional downturns.
• ESG and Sustainability: KMD continues to enhance ESG leadership through sustainable sourcing, circular product strategies, and environmental stewardship—values increasingly prized by younger consumers and institutional investors.
• Management Transformation: CEO Brent Scrimshaw’s fresh perspective, paired with recent insider stakes, augurs well for strategic discipline and decisive execution.
• Debt Reduction Trajectory: The target to reduce net debt below NZ$50 million by July 2025 will free up cash flow for reinvestment and signals financial prudence at a challenging but opportune time.

Sector-wide, the easing of supply chain disruptions, renewed travel, and return to outdoor activities act as structural tailwinds poised to benefit consumer-facing brands with international traction and robust digital capabilities.

Investment Strategies

For investors constructing a buy thesis around KMD Brands, three principal entry strategies emerge, each dovetailing with the stock’s evolving profile:

• Short-Term:
• Tactical positions at or near the NZ$0.295–0.305 technical support could capture a sharp rebound as oversold conditions reverse toward resistance levels of NZ$0.32–0.34.
• Momentum-driven investors may await confirmation via RSI recovery or a MACD crossover before entering, targeting rapid upside as mean reversion triggers.
• Medium-Term:
• With digital and internal restructuring catalysts set to accelerate over H2 2025, entries ahead of tangible operational updates may generate attractive risk/reward, aiming for the analyst consensus target near NZ$0.46.
• Active monitoring of management commentary and trading volumes can inform position sizing and trailing stop discipline.
• Long-Term:
• For value and turnaround investors, current prices offer a rare opportunity to acquire ownership in a global, multi-brand “category killer” at significant discount to medium-term recovery value.
• Income-seeking portfolios should note the absence of dividends, but patient capital can position for full-cycle participation in sector normalisation and strategic global expansion.

Is it the Right Time to Buy KMD Brands?

Synthesising the above, KMD Brands exhibits multiple qualities that collectively justify enhanced attention from contrarian, value-oriented, and sector-rotation investors. The company’s iconic brand suite, geographic diversity, and advanced digital pivot offer a compelling base for operational recovery and margin expansion—bolstered by tangible management commitment and an improving macro-climate.

Though recent financial results reflect earnings pressure, the preponderance of forward-looking factors—digital innovation, margin tailwinds, strengthening consumer trends, and insider confidence—all combine to suggest that KMD Brands may soon transition from out-of-favour to strategic outperformer. The exceptional risk/reward at current valuation, relative to both historic benchmarks and analyst targets, seems to represent an excellent opportunity for those positioned ahead of the recovery curve.

In sum, while prudent risk management remains essential, all the ingredients for a potentially powerful turnaround appear to be present. For discerning investors ready to look beyond near-term turbulence, KMD Brands may be entering a new bullish phase, with the forthcoming quarters serving as a pivotal proving ground for this iconic portfolio’s next chapter.

As the sector embarks on a new growth cycle and with KMD Brands’ unique blend of brand strength and operational focus, the stock deserves a place on the radar of investors seeking both value and upside potential in 2025.

How to buy KMD Brands stock in New Zealand?

Buying KMD Brands stock online is a simple and secure process for New Zealand investors when using a regulated broker. You have two main choices: you can buy and own KMD Brands shares directly (“spot buying”) or trade using Contracts for Difference (CFDs), allowing for leveraged exposure without owning the underlying shares. Both methods can be accessed quickly online, and trustworthy platforms offer investor protections. Each method has unique features and risks, so it’s wise to review the comparative broker table found further down this page to find the best fit for your needs.

Spot buying

When you buy KMD Brands shares directly (also called a “cash” purchase), you become a shareholder in KMD Brands Limited, entitled to any future dividends and voting rights. This is the most common way to invest for the long term: you pay the full share price up front, plus a brokerage fee. Typical online brokers in New Zealand charge a flat commission per trade, ranging from NZ$3 to NZ$15.

Example: Spot buying

For example, with KMD Brands currently trading at NZ$0.305 per share, and a brokerage fee of NZ$5, a NZ$1,000 investment allows you to buy approximately 3,262 shares (NZ$1,000 - NZ$5 fee = NZ$995; NZ$995 ÷ NZ$0.305 ≈ 3,262 shares).

Gain Scenario:

If the share price rises by 10%, your holding is now worth NZ$1,100. Result: That’s a gross gain of NZ$100 – a 10% return on your initial stake (before any taxes or further fees).

Trading via CFD

CFD (Contract for Difference) trading lets you speculate on KMD Brands’ share price movements without owning the actual shares. With CFDs, you trade using leverage, meaning you can control a larger position with a smaller upfront investment. Fees typically include the spread (the difference between buy/sell prices) and daily overnight financing costs if you hold positions overnight.

Example: CFD trading

For example, with a NZ$1,000 deposit and 5x leverage, you can open a CFD position that mimics owning NZ$5,000 worth of KMD Brands shares.

Gain Scenario:

If the KMD Brands share price increases by 8%, your position delivers a 40% return (8% × 5), or a gain of NZ$400 from a NZ$1,000 outlay (excluding spreads and overnight fees).

Final advice

Before you start investing, it’s important to compare brokers’ fees, platforms, and support for NZX-listed stocks, as costs and features can vary widely. While both spot buying and CFD trading offer accessible ways to invest in KMD Brands, the right choice depends on your personal risk tolerance, investment horizon, and objectives. Be sure to review the broker comparison table further down the page to find the right option for you.

Our 7 tips for buying KMD Brands stock

The latest news about KMD Brands

Consensus analyst target implies over 50% upside from current levels despite negative market sentiment. Over the past week, the KMD Brands share price has remained stable in intraday trading but declined 6.2% overall, reflecting generally negative sentiment; however, the current analyst consensus price target stands at NZ$0.46, which is over 50% higher than the present NZ$0.305 share price. This notable valuation gap indicates that professional analysts expect meaningful upside potential for the stock, provided that KMD can deliver on its outlined recovery and digital strategy, presenting a constructive medium-term outlook for New Zealand investors.

Recent management share purchases signal confidence in the company’s recovery plan. April 2025 saw significant insider buying activity, with members of the management team acquiring shares on-market for a combined value of NZ$266,000. These transactions are interpreted as a strong indicator of internal confidence, particularly relevant following the March 2025 appointment of Brent Scrimshaw as CEO. For New Zealand investors, the combination of leadership transition and insider conviction is a positive governance signal that could support future operational and share price recovery.

Digital investments and retail expansion support the medium-term growth story. KMD Brands has explicitly committed to increased investment in digital sales platforms and e-commerce capabilities, alongside a strategic programme to expand retail store presence and drive operational efficiencies locally and in other key markets. These ongoing initiatives target a projected annual revenue growth of 4.4% over the next three years, which, if achieved, would materially strengthen the company’s position in the competitive New Zealand and global outdoor retail sectors.

Financial results remain challenging but show resilience in sales and gross margin. For the half-year ended 31 January 2025, KMD reported a slight increase in sales (+0.5% year-on-year), and maintained a strong gross margin (58.5%), despite the challenging retail environment and intensified margin pressures. While net losses deepened to NZ$21.4 million compared to the prior period, the stability in top-line revenue demonstrates solid brand resilience and market demand, offering some reassurance to stakeholders in the local market that the business retains a competitive core.

Debt reduction and strategic execution remain focal points, with clear targets set for FY25. Management has reaffirmed commitments to operational improvement and financial discipline, with a stated target to reduce net debt below NZ$50 million by July 2025. This focus on deleveraging, if successful, would improve the balance sheet and bolster confidence among financial analysts and investors based in New Zealand. Combined with efforts to optimize costs and ramp up digital transformation, these measures form the foundation for a potential recovery in shareholder value over the coming periods.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.