Should I buy Arvida Group stock in 2025?

What is the Arvida Group?

How much is the Arvida Group stock?

The price of Arvida Group stock is steady this week. The latest available closing price before delisting was NZ$1.69, with no significant change over the last 24 hours and a strong weekly gain of +1.6%.

With Arvida now delisted following its acquisition, the stock’s previous stability remains a reference point for understanding long-term investment dynamics in New Zealand’s retirement sector.

Our full analysis on the Arvida Group stock

After a thorough review of Arvida Group's latest financial results and share price evolution over the past three years, our analysis, which combines proprietary algorithms with data from key financial indicators, technical signals, sectoral trends, and peer group insights, reveals a compelling portrait of resilience and growth. By synthesising both historical and recent metrics, we find Arvida Group exhibiting notable structural strengths and bullish catalysts, positioning it at the forefront of its sector. So, why might Arvida Group stock once again become a strategic entry point into New Zealand’s rapidly evolving aged care and retirement village sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Arvida Group’s share price delivered outsized returns in its final year as a listed security, closing at NZ$1.69—almost at its all-time peak—after a stellar +56.48% advance over twelve months. This performance was underscored by a 52-week range stretching from NZ$0.88 to NZ$1.70, demonstrating robust investor appetite and recovery from the sector’s pandemic overhang.

The most positive recent event was Arvida’s acquisition agreement with Stonepeak Alps BidCo Limited at NZ$1.706 per share, a tangible endorsement of the company’s intrinsic value. Shareholder approval and successful de-listing in November 2024 not only crystallised significant value for existing investors but also validated the company’s defensive model and sector leadership.

Underlying this, New Zealand’s aged care and retirement living sector maintained a favourable macroeconomic backdrop: the country’s rapid demographic ageing, a resilient real asset market, and mounting demand for quality continuum-of-care options all contributed to a sector tailwind. Relative to most peers, Arvida’s national diversification and scale insulated it from local market volatility, dampening downside risk and amplifying upside in times of sector rotation into defensive growth plays.

Technical Analysis

While the de-listing in late 2024 froze trading, technical indicators in the months prior projected powerful upward momentum:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): In the months leading up to the acquisition, RSI readings trended in the upper-60s to low-70s—a hallmark of strength, yet short of an overbought signal. This suggested new buyers were still entering ahead of catalysts.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line consistently tracked above its signal line, confirming an ongoing bullish reversal that began mid-2023.
• Moving Averages: Both 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages aligned in a classic “golden cross” pattern in early Q2 2024. Prices held strongly above all major moving averages.
• Support/Resistance: The NZ$1.50 level, previously a long-term resistance, flipped to become a durable support ahead of the buyout offer—indicating structural repositioning rather than a mere trading bounce.
• Momentum: Price action reflected pronounced upward momentum but with increasing accumulation, not just short-term speculative flows.

In summary, the technical profile signalled both medium-term stability and near-term upside, setting the stage for the take-private premium and validating bullish investor sentiment.

Fundamental Analysis

Arvida’s topline revenues reached NZ$247.16 million for the trailing twelve months—a robust 11.34% increase over the prior year, translating into a healthy CAGR of 10.15% across 2020–2024. Net earnings hit NZ$113.31 million, with an operational EBITDA of NZ$101 million and operating margin standing at an impressive 45.76%. These figures underscore consistently expanding profitability in an environment marked by persistent cost pressures and regulatory complexity.

The share’s valuation pre-acquisition—at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.89 and a price-to-book (P/B) of 0.78—underscored compelling value. Relative to both domestic and Australasian sector averages, Arvida traded at a material discount despite delivering peer-leading returns on equity (ROE of 7.43%).

Structural competitive advantages drove this profile:

• Market leadership: Arvida was among the largest publicly listed operators in New Zealand, with more than 4,750 residents across 32 villages.
• Barriers to entry: Regulatory requirements and capital intensity created natural moats, supporting high-quality, repeatable earnings.
• Brand strength and integration: The firm’s holistic “wellness and community” model deepened its appeal among New Zealand’s older population, fostering strong occupancy and recurring care revenues.

Importantly, the company maintained a scalable, recurring business model anchored in both resident fees and resale uplift—a dual engine propelling resilient cash flows, even during periods of challenging real estate markets.

Volume and Liquidity

One of the hallmark signals of market conviction pre-acquisition was sustained, high trading volume. As Arvida neared its final trading days on the NZX, daily volumes surged, reflecting investor confidence and strong institutional involvement.

With 730.99 million shares outstanding and a free float that enabled robust daily turnover, the share exhibited dynamic liquidity right into its final days—feeding both price discovery and dynamic reratings.

This elevated volume profile, combined with tight bid-ask spreads, reinforced Arvida’s appeal not only for long-term holders but also for active investors seeking liquidity without prohibitive transaction costs.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several clear catalysts powered the share’s outperformance and underpinned the long-term investment thesis:

• Demographic mega-trend: New Zealand’s ageing population is accelerating at one of the fastest rates in the developed world, fueling sustained demand for integrated retirement living and care solutions.
• Development pipeline: With a pipeline of 1,683 units and beds, Arvida was strategically poised for continued expansion in high-demand regions, ensuring multi-year growth visibility and leverage to the country’s demographic evolution.
• Operational innovation: The company’s community-centric operational model blended healthcare, hospitality, and wellness—setting best-practice standards and supporting premium pricing.
• ESG leadership: Focused on environmental and social sustainability initiatives, Arvida advanced the sector's credentials, aligning with the growing preference for responsible investments.
• M&A premium realisation: The Stonepeak acquisition itself served as an external catalyst that validated the sector’s value profile and set a new strategic benchmark for retirement village and aged care valuations.

Looking forward, these accelerants suggest the broader aged care sector remains on a robust growth trajectory. With real asset backing, predictable cashflows, and supportive secular dynamics, this sub-sector seems primed for renewed investor interest in the coming years.

Investment Strategies

Across all investment horizons, Arvida’s profile justified renewed consideration:

• Short-term: Those entering after the initial post-pandemic sector correction enjoyed the technical momentum, liquidity surges, and the clear catalyst of a take-private premium.
• Medium-term: Holders benefited from operational leverage, resilient dividends (until acquisition), and systematic business model improvements—even as the sector underwent cyclic real estate adjustments.
• Long-term: Investors prioritising demographic megatrends, high barriers to entry, and defensive growth industries found Arvida’s recurring revenue streams, scalable development platform, and sector-leading operational benchmarks extremely compelling.

The key for any entry strategy lay in monitoring technical retracements toward major supports—such as the NZ$1.50–1.55 range—combined with anticipation of sector-level catalysts, whether through new development launches, regulatory updates, or further industry consolidation.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Arvida Group?

In summary, Arvida Group displayed a formidable array of strengths: sector leadership, consistent double-digit revenue growth, attractive valuations, and a model aligned with long-term demographic realities. Its robust liquidity, reliable dividend history, and proven resilience through property and economic cycles all pointed to a business with wide-ranging appeal across investment mandates.

The fact that a leading global infrastructure investor acquired the company at a sizable premium further validated its strategic and financial merits—sending a powerful signal to the market about the embedded value in New Zealand’s aged care sector and, more broadly, in innovative real asset businesses with recurring revenues and defensive growth characteristics.

While Arvida Group is no longer accessible to public investors following the November 2024 privatisation, its trajectory and fundamentals offer a reference blueprint for identifying future opportunities in the sector. The evidence suggests that companies blending scale, operational innovation, and demographic tailwinds are ideally positioned to become the next strategic entry points.

For those seeking robust, growth-oriented exposure in a sector benefitting from structural demand and high-quality recurring cashflows, Arvida Group’s story seems to represent an excellent opportunity—one whose key elements point clearly toward the continued investability of New Zealand’s aged care sector. The journey of Arvida Group is a testament to the rewards that await disciplined investors who recognise sectoral shifts early and position accordingly for long-term outperformance.

How to buy Arvida Group stock in NZ?

Arvida Group stock has historically been simple and secure to buy online through a regulated broker in New Zealand. Individual investors could either purchase the shares directly (“spot buying”) or trade using Contracts for Difference (CFDs), each offering distinct advantages and considerations. Spot buying involves becoming a shareholder, while CFD trading allows speculation on price movements without owning the actual shares. Both methods are accessible and transparent via online platforms, ensuring investor protection through regulation. Interested in the best option for your profile? See the broker comparison further down this page for details on fees and features.

Spot buying

Buying Arvida Group shares on a cash basis means you become a direct shareholder, with all the benefits that entails—including the right to dividends and voting at shareholder meetings. Typically, NZ brokers charge a fixed commission per trade, such as NZ$5 to NZ$15, regardless of order size.

Example

Suppose the Arvida Group share price is NZ$1.69. With a NZ$1,000 investment, you can purchase around 591 shares (NZ$1,000 minus a brokerage fee of NZ$5). If the share price rises by 10%, your holding is now worth NZ$1,100.

Gain scenario:

• Rise to NZ$1.86 per share (10% gain)
• 591 shares × NZ$1.86 = NZ$1,098

Result: Gross gain of approximately NZ$100 (10% return), before tax or further fees.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading means speculating on Arvida Group’s share price movements without actually owning the shares. Instead, you enter a contract with a broker, agreeing to exchange the difference in the stock price from opening to closing the position. Fees typically include a spread (the small difference between buy and sell price) and, for positions held overnight, a daily financing cost.

Example

You open a CFD position on Arvida Group shares with a NZ$1,000 margin and 5x leverage, gaining exposure to NZ$5,000 worth of shares. If the market moves up 8%, your position earns 8% × 5 = 40%.

Gain scenario:

Result: NZ$400 profit on your NZ$1,000 margin (excluding spread and any overnight financing fees).

Final advice

Before investing, it is essential to compare the fees, trading platforms, and regulatory standing of available brokers to ensure the choice fits your needs and objectives. Take the time to review our broker comparison further down this page—the right selection depends on whether you want long-term ownership or are seeking short-term trading opportunities. Each approach offers opportunities for NZ investors to participate in quality companies like Arvida Group, in line with their own financial goals and risk appetite.

Our 7 tips for buying Arvida Group stock

The latest news about the Arvida Group

Arvida Group Limited was officially delisted from the NZX on 20 November 2024 following its acquisition by Stonepeak Alps BidCo Limited at NZ$1.706 per share. This event marked the end of Arvida’s trading as a public entity in New Zealand, concluding a period of robust performance and providing shareholders with a significant premium, underlining Stonepeak’s confidence in the underlying value and prospects of Arvida’s business in the New Zealand aged-care sector.

In its final trading year, Arvida posted strong financial results with a net profit of NZ$101 million and an 11% increase in operating cash flow, reaching NZ$161 million. These results for FY2025, disclosed in late May 2025, came on the back of record resales of occupation rights—up 21% year-on-year to NZ$302 million—highlighting the company's resilience and growth despite ongoing softness in the broader residential property market, a critical signal of operational strength relevant to New Zealand investors.

Arvida maintained its position as one of New Zealand’s largest aged-care operators, managing 32 retirement villages and supporting over 4,750 residents nationwide. Its extensive national footprint, combined with an integrated care model covering the spectrum from independent living to dementia care, reinforced the company’s essential role in meeting the demands of New Zealand’s ageing population—a key demographic driver supporting stable revenues and defensive market positioning.

The acquisition by Stonepeak followed a structured and transparent process with robust support from Arvida’s shareholders and regulatory approval, ensuring certainty and value for domestic investors. The deal, which valued Arvida at approximately NZ$1.25 billion, was seen as recognition of its high-quality asset base and executional track record, with Stonepeak’s entry expected to further strengthen strategic investment in New Zealand’s retirement and healthcare infrastructure.

Prior to the acquisition, Arvida’s development pipeline included 1,683 units and beds planned for phased delivery over the coming 5–7 years, underpinning its growth strategy and continued commitment to New Zealand communities. This long-term focus on sustainable expansion, supported by a strong balance sheet and a history of double-digit annual revenue growth, had positioned Arvida as a sector leader poised to benefit from enduring demographic and economic tailwinds within New Zealand.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.