Should I buy McDonald's stock in 2025?

What is McDonald's?

How much is the McDonald's stock?

The price of McDonald's stock is declining this week. As of now, MCD trades at $311.86 USD, showing a 24-hour decrease of $0.98 (-0.31%) and a 0.78% drop over the past week. The company’s market capitalisation stands at $223.69 billion, with a 3-month average trading volume of 3.66 million shares.

McDonald's stock currently has a P/E ratio of 27.51, a dividend yield of 2.27%, and a beta of 0.57, indicating relatively low volatility compared to the market.

For NZ investors, this profile suggests an appealing balance between steady dividends and defensive market behaviour.

Our full analysis on the McDonald's stock

After thoroughly reviewing McDonald’s latest quarterly results and examining the share’s trajectory over the past three years, we have applied our proprietary modelling—integrating financial ratios, technical signals, market positioning, and competitor benchmarking. Our analysis reveals compelling underlying dynamics and evolving strategic catalysts. So, why might McDonald’s stock once again represent a timely entry point for global consumer sector investors as we look ahead to 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) has shown notable resilience and strength in the face of an evolving macroeconomic backdrop. As of May 30, 2025, McDonald’s trades at $311.86, not far from its 52-week high of $326.32, representing a 25.06% gain over twelve months and a 5.35% advance over the past six months. While intraday volatility remains modest (down 0.31% most recently), the share has exhibited steady momentum and acted as a defensive anchor for global equity portfolios amidst pronounced sector rotation.

Key positive events underpinning this performance include the company’s proactive move to integrate CosMc’s beverage offerings into the core menu and the successful extension of the budget-friendly $5 meal menu, designed to reinforce customer loyalty during a period of softening US consumer traffic. The announcement of $9 billion invested in restaurant renovations further demonstrates McDonald’s commitment to elevating the digital and physical customer experience worldwide.

Importantly, McDonald’s continues to leverage its global footprint—over 43,000 restaurants across 115 markets—securing its position as the world’s leading quick-service restaurant brand. The relatively defensive nature of the sector, especially regarding staple consumption habits and strong brand affinity, remains highly favourable in uncertain global markets, including for NZ investors seeking international consumer exposure.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, McDonald’s is demonstrating a strong, constructive chart structure ripe for renewed upside. The 14-day RSI stands at 50.55, suggesting the stock is in a neutral zone—neither overbought nor oversold—offering amplitude for further advances. The MACD at 1.19 delivers a positive bullish crossover, reinforcing the possibility of upward momentum in coming sessions.

Crucially, MCD is trading above its 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages—clear technical signals of a stock in an established uptrend and an indicator of underlying demand from institutional buyers. The zone between $301.21 and $312.06 has repeatedly acted as strong support, providing a technically attractive risk/reward benchmark for new entries.

A recent breakout above $308, confirming a shift above prior resistance, underscores a potential for further price expansion. With short-term resistance at the $326.32 all-time high in focus, a decisive close above this level could act as a catalyst for a new medium-term bullish phase.

Fundamental Analysis

• Revenue & Profitability: Annual revenues came in at $25.71 billion (TTM), with Q1 2025 revenues of $5.96 billion and net income of $1.87 billion, translating to an impressive operating margin of 31.75%. While Q1 saw a modest decline in revenue and net profit year-on-year (down 3.5% and 3.2%, respectively), the company exceeded market expectations for adjusted EPS ($2.67 versus $2.66 forecast), highlighting successful cost controls and operational agility even in a challenging top-line environment.
• Valuation: Trading at a P/E of 27.51 and with a healthy dividend yield of 2.27%, McDonald’s offers a blend of growth and income. The PEG and price-to-sales multiples remain at reasonable levels compared to sector giants, helping to justify the premium through superior profitability and return on assets (ROA of 15.31%).
• Structural Strengths: The company’s core franchise model—responsible for 60% of revenues via royalties and rental payments—provides a moat of predictable cash flow. Augmented by relentless innovation (digital order platforms, menu enhancements) and an iconic global brand, these factors solidify McDonald’s role as a sector leader.
• Market Share & Brand Equity: With systemwide sales of $131 billion in 2024, McDonald’s unparalleled market share ensures high visibility and continued pricing power. Its capacity to innovate and adapt rapidly to consumer trends represents a long-term structural tailwind.

Volume and Liquidity

Sustained volumes—3.66 million shares traded daily (3-month average)—indicate robust market confidence, enabling larger institutional and retail investors to establish or adjust positions without liquidity constraints. With a market capitalisation of $223.7 billion and over 715 million shares outstanding, McDonald’s free float and depth facilitate dynamic, efficient price discovery and signal healthy investor participation.

This consistent liquidity underpins not only ease of execution but also stability, making MCD an attractive holding for diversified and institutional portfolios alike, particularly for NZ investors seeking efficient exposure to US blue chips.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

• Property Modernisation: The $9bn investment in restaurant upgrades is expected to spur increased foot traffic, especially as digital ordering and experiential dining increasingly drive customer preferences globally.
• Menu and Product Innovation: The consolidation of best-selling CosMc’s beverages into the core McDonald’s menu, alongside targeted promotions such as the $5 meal deal, allows McDonald’s to respond flexibly to shifting consumer budgets and preferences.
• ESG and Digital Trends: Ongoing commitment to ESG leadership—including sustainable packaging, supply chain transparency, and community initiatives—positions McDonald’s favourably as global regulatory and consumer landscapes evolve.
• Defensive Growth through Franchise Model: With 60% of income generated via franchise royalties and lease payments, the business is insulated against transient operating cost pressures and sector cyclicality.
• Analyst Sentiment: Current Wall Street consensus is moderately positive, with 16 Buy and 12 Hold ratings, and a median target of $313.63 (range: $265–$364), implying healthy appreciation potential, with some models maintaining ambitious targets up to $405.42 (+30% from current levels).
• Upcoming Earnings Data: The next set of results due in late July/early August provides a natural catalyst, especially if operational performance and cost management continue to outpace expectations.

Investment Strategies

The technical and fundamental configuration suggests McDonald’s may now offer:

• Short-Term Entry: After rebounding from technical support at $301.21, a move toward the $326–$330 resistance zone could reward traders tactically positioned ahead of earnings and new menu rollouts.
• Medium-Term Positioning: As restaurant modernisations scale and digital strategies mature, anticipated improvement in comparable store sales and further margin stabilisation create scope for sustainable re-rating.
• Long-Term Investment: McDonald’s rare mix of defensive income, global brand power, and adaptive business model arguably supports steady wealth accumulation for growth and income-oriented investors. Dividend increases and buyback programmes reinforce total return potential over successive years.

Technically, recent consolidation between $301 and $312, coupled with the latest bullish breakout, presents an ideal point for incremental allocation—especially for those seeking a mix of value and momentum, with the next leg up likely catalysed by earnings or further market share gains.

Is it the Right Time to Buy McDonald’s?

Collectively, McDonald’s displays an impressive confluence of strengths: a defensive yet growth-oriented model, high and stable margins, solid free cash flow, disciplined innovation, and a premium but justified valuation. Recent technical signals, combined with consistently high trading volumes and supportive analyst sentiment, point to McDonald’s potentially entering a renewed bullish cycle.

While some risks persist—such as inflationary pressures weighing on lower-income consumers and operational cost headwinds in select regions—McDonald’s core strategy remains notably resilient and well adapted to shifting global consumption patterns. With its proactive investment in innovation, menu value, and digitalisation, the stock seems to represent an excellent opportunity for NZ investors seeking diversified exposure to international consumer leaders.

Looking ahead to 2025, the balance of evidence suggests that McDonald’s fundamentals and market positioning justify renewed interest: the share may be poised to outperform as operational catalysts unfold and macro conditions eventually stabilise. In our view, McDonald’s stands on the threshold of another wave of robust performance—one that serious investors would do well to monitor closely as the next chapter in its global growth story begins.

How to buy McDonald's stock in NZ?

Buying McDonald's stock online is a straightforward and secure process for New Zealand investors, thanks to a growing range of regulated brokers operating under local or top-tier overseas supervision. You can choose between two main methods: spot buying, which means owning the actual shares in your portfolio, or trading contracts for difference (CFDs), which track McDonald's price movements without direct ownership. Both approaches are accessible digitally and offer distinct advantages depending on your goals. To help you find the right platform and fee structure, you’ll find a detailed broker comparison further down this page.

Spot Buying

A cash or spot purchase of McDonald's shares means you buy and own the actual stock, becoming a shareholder entitled to potential dividends and voting rights. In New Zealand, most online brokers charge either a low fixed NZD commission per US share trade—typically around NZ$5 to NZ$10 per order.

Spot Buying Example

For example, if the McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) share price is about US$311.86 (approximately NZ$510), you could buy 1 share with a $1,000 NZD investment, factoring in an estimated NZ$5 brokerage fee (actual exchange rates & fees may apply).
✔️ Gain scenario:
If the share price rises by 10%, your holdings grow in value to approximately $1,100 NZD.
Result: That’s a $100 gross gain, or +10% on your investment (excluding currency and tax considerations).

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) allow you to speculate on McDonald's share price movements without actually owning the underlying stock. This method is popular with active traders because it offers leverage—meaning you can gain larger market exposure with a smaller initial outlay. NZ brokers typically charge a spread (the difference between buy and sell price) and may apply a small overnight financing fee if you keep positions open for multiple days.

CFD Trading Example

For instance, with $1,000 NZD and 5x leverage, you can open a CFD position linked to $5,000 worth of McDonald’s stock.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If the share price increases by 8%, your position earns 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: That’s a $400 gain on your $1,000 stake (excluding fees and currency fluctuations).

Final Advice

Before investing, it’s essential to carefully compare brokers’ fees, available US market access, platform features, and the security of your funds. Your choice between cash share dealing or CFD trading will ultimately depend on your investment objectives, risk appetite, and trading horizon. A detailed broker comparison is available further down this page to help you make the best decision for your needs.

Our 7 tips for buying McDonald's stock

The latest news about McDonald's

McDonald's share price currently remains resilient with a 1-year gain of over 25% as of May 30, 2025. After a moderate 0.78% decline over the past week, McDonald's continues to outperform broader market benchmarks over the longer term, which is particularly relevant for New Zealand-based investors seeking stable global blue-chip exposure. With a share price of USD $311.86 and a market cap of $223.69 billion, the stock's 52-week range and average daily traded volume highlight ongoing liquidity and institutional interest, factors important for NZ analysts evaluating international portfolio allocations.

The company is actively modernising its global restaurant estate, investing $9 billion in upgrades aimed at supporting digital and delivery growth. This strategic investment enhances both operational efficiency and customer experience, a trend that is mirrored in the New Zealand market where digital ordering and delivery services are increasingly influencing consumer behaviour. The global push into digital initiatives and store renovations positions McDonald’s outlets—including those in NZ—to benefit from rising demand for convenience and tech-enabled food service, potentially supporting medium-term revenue stability locally and abroad.

Latest quarterly results saw McDonald's beat earnings expectations, maintaining strong margins despite slight revenue softness. For Q1 2025, McDonald’s delivered an adjusted EPS of $2.67, marginally above consensus forecasts, even as revenues missed slightly at $5.96 billion. The ability to exceed profit expectations during a period of muted top-line growth underscores resilient operational management and prioritisation of profitability. This is a positive factor for New Zealand investors, for whom dividend security (current yield at 2.27%) and quality fundamentals are often key decision metrics in a concentrated market.

Technical indicators signal short-term upside potential, with the stock holding above key moving averages and recently breaking resistance at $308. The 14-day RSI at 50.55 and a positive MACD further support a neutral-to-bullish short-term outlook. This technical framework offers a constructive signal for NZ market participants who may be considering tactical allocations or searching for large-cap stability amidst ongoing global market volatility.

Analyst consensus remains moderately positive, led by McDonald’s robust franchise model and strong global brand position. Sixteen buy ratings and a consensus median target near the current price reflects cautious optimism, with the company’s resilience underpinned by its heavy weighting toward franchise and rental income (60% of revenue). This low beta stock (0.57) offers New Zealand institutional investors exposure to a defensive, income-oriented global leader with continuing adaptation to digital trends and evolving customer preferences both globally and, by extension, in New Zealand’s highly competitive fast-food sector.

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P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.