Should I buy Moderna stock in 2025? An NZ Investor's Guide
Is Moderna stock a buy right now?
ScoreModerna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) currently trades at approximately $26.93 (as of 30 May 2025), with recent average daily trading volume reaching 10.6 million shares – a figure that highlights continued investor attention despite sector volatility. After a challenging twelve months marked by a -35% year-to-date performance and a one-year decline of -81%, much of the negative sentiment appears to have already been priced in. Recent headlines include the cancellation of a major US government contract and more stringent FDA approval processes, which have undoubtedly presented headwinds. However, Moderna's robust cash position—$9.5 billion as of the end of 2024—positions it well to invest in research and development and weather short-term disruptions. The company is actively transitioning from dependency on pandemic-era vaccines to a broader portfolio, with up to ten product approvals expected by 2027 and recent launches such as the mRESVIA RSV vaccine. Within the highly dynamic biotech sector, Moderna stands out for its strong partnerships and diversified pipeline across respiratory, oncology, and rare diseases. The consensus target price from more than 28 major national and international banks stands at $35, which reflects a constructive outlook on long-term growth potential. In sum, Moderna may appeal to New Zealand investors seeking exposure to innovation-driven healthcare, supported by both sector trends and financial resilience.
- ✅Leading mRNA technology platform with extensive intellectual property.
- ✅Strong cash reserves at $9.5B support ongoing R&D and strategic agility.
- ✅Diversified late-stage pipeline, including respiratory and cancer therapies.
- ✅Successful launch of RSV vaccine demonstrates clinical and commercial progress.
- ✅Strategic partnerships with Merck, AstraZeneca, and Vertex add scale and credibility.
- ❌Recent revenue contraction highlights sensitivity to vaccine market cycles.
- ❌Absence of dividend and ongoing net losses may deter some income-focused investors.
- ✅Leading mRNA technology platform with extensive intellectual property.
- ✅Strong cash reserves at $9.5B support ongoing R&D and strategic agility.
- ✅Diversified late-stage pipeline, including respiratory and cancer therapies.
- ✅Successful launch of RSV vaccine demonstrates clinical and commercial progress.
- ✅Strategic partnerships with Merck, AstraZeneca, and Vertex add scale and credibility.
Is Moderna stock a buy right now?
Score- ✅Leading mRNA technology platform with extensive intellectual property.
- ✅Strong cash reserves at $9.5B support ongoing R&D and strategic agility.
- ✅Diversified late-stage pipeline, including respiratory and cancer therapies.
- ✅Successful launch of RSV vaccine demonstrates clinical and commercial progress.
- ✅Strategic partnerships with Merck, AstraZeneca, and Vertex add scale and credibility.
- ❌Recent revenue contraction highlights sensitivity to vaccine market cycles.
- ❌Absence of dividend and ongoing net losses may deter some income-focused investors.
- ✅Leading mRNA technology platform with extensive intellectual property.
- ✅Strong cash reserves at $9.5B support ongoing R&D and strategic agility.
- ✅Diversified late-stage pipeline, including respiratory and cancer therapies.
- ✅Successful launch of RSV vaccine demonstrates clinical and commercial progress.
- ✅Strategic partnerships with Merck, AstraZeneca, and Vertex add scale and credibility.
- What is Moderna?
- How much is the Moderna stock?
- Our complete analysis of the Moderna stock
- How to buy Moderna stock in New Zealand?
- Our 7 tips for buying Moderna stock
- The latest news about Moderna
- FAQ
What is Moderna?
| Indicator | Value | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| 🏳️ Nationality | United States | US-based biotech, subject to US tax and regulatory environments. |
| 💼 Market | NASDAQ (Ticker: MRNA) | Listed on NASDAQ, providing high liquidity and visibility. |
| 🏛️ ISIN code | US60770K1079 | Unique securities identifier for global trading access. |
| 👤 CEO | Stéphane Bancel | CEO since 2011, recognized for experience in biotech innovation. |
| 🏢 Market cap | $10.07 billion (as of May 2025) | Significantly reduced; reflects market uncertainty and future growth concerns. |
| 📈 Revenue | $3.2 billion (FY 2024, projected $1.5–2.5B in 2025) | Revenues declined post-pandemic; transition to seasonal vaccine sales is underway. |
| 💹 EBITDA | -$3.6 billion (FY 2024, negative) | Large losses as R&D spends remain high amid dropping COVID vaccine sales. |
| 📊 P/E Ratio (Price/Earnings) | N/A (company loss-making) | Negative earnings; investors focused on pipeline potential, not current profitability. |
How much is the Moderna stock?
The price of Moderna stock is rising this week. Currently, Moderna is trading at $26.93 USD, up 3.38% (+$0.88) in the past 24 hours, though down 0.79% over the last five days.
| Market Cap | Avg 3M Daily Volume | P/E Ratio | Dividend Yield | Beta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10.07 billion | 10.58 million shares | N/A (losses) | N/A | 2.00 |
Moderna’s P/E ratio is not available due to ongoing losses, and no dividend yield is offered, while its stock beta is 2.00, indicating high volatility.
For NZ investors, this volatility presents both risks and potential opportunities in a rapidly shifting biotech sector.
Check out New Zealand's best brokers!Compare brokersOur complete analysis of the Moderna stock
After a rigorous review of Moderna’s most recent financial results and its share price evolution over the last three years, we have integrated in-depth financial analysis, technical market signals, and peer benchmarking through our proprietary algorithms. This integrated approach offers a forward-looking picture of Moderna’s position within the global biotechnology landscape. So, why might Moderna stock once again become a strategic entry point into the healthcare innovation sector in 2025?
Recent Performance and Market Context
Despite tremendous volatility, Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) has captured renewed market attention in the wake of operational and regulatory inflection points. As of 30 May 2025, the stock traded at $26.93, reflecting an intraday gain of +3.38%. Its 52-week range is highly pronounced ($23.15 to $158.82), illustrating both risk and the magnitude of potential upside. While the stock is down over 80% year-on-year and -35% YTD, recent days have signalled stabilising forces, pointing to the possibility of a bottoming process.
Notably, select positive events have shifted sentiment. The successful market launch of Moderna’s RSV vaccine, “mRESVIA,” generated $25 million in revenue in 2024 and underscored ongoing commercial momentum. While regulatory headwinds impacted near-term COVID-19 vaccine revenues and cancelled government contracts temporarily constrained growth, these have simultaneously prompted prudent cost management initiatives and an accelerated pipeline focus on next-generation products.
On the macro front, the biotechnology sector remains well supported by robust global demand for respiratory, oncology, and rare disease therapeutics—market segments that underpin Moderna’s diversification strategy. A favourable regulatory environment in major markets, coupled with sustained innovation in mRNA technology, reinforces the company’s long-term outlook even as post-pandemic demand for COVID-19 vaccines normalises. These crosscurrents set the stage for tactical entry, favourably positioning investors for secular healthcare growth themes relevant to New Zealand and global portfolios alike.
Technical Analysis
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): At 48.73, RSI indicates neutrality, and suggests the downtrend has paused while buyers and sellers reach equilibrium—a classic precursor to trend reversals.
- Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): With a reading of -0.25, MACD remains weak but is approaching a turning point; any momentum uptick could trigger a clear buy signal.
- Short-Term Averages: The price is marginally above its 20-day moving average ($25.89), presenting a short-term bullish tilt.
- Support and Resistance: The sturdy support zone around $25.76–$26.00 provides a technical floor. Overcoming resistance ($28.46–$28.54) and the first pivot ($27.67) could spark renewed bullish momentum in the medium term.
- Medium-Longer Term Structure: While longer-term moving averages (50, 100, 200 days) remain above the current price—structurally valid during a consolidation phase—they set clear targets for upside moves in the event of positive news, creating asymmetric risk/reward scenarios.
Overall, the current technical structure appears to favour accumulation, especially around support. This offers a compelling setup for investors seeking positions ahead of potential catalysts.
Fundamental Analysis
- Revenue Dynamics: The company reported $3.2 billion in revenue during 2024—a decline from the pandemic-driven peak but sustained by diversified vaccine sales and pipeline advances. Management estimates 2025 revenue to range between $1.5–$2.5 billion as new products scale.
- Profitability and Cash: While net losses totalled $(3.6) billion in 2024 (BPA -$9.28), the company retains an exceptionally robust cash position ($9.5 billion at year-end), affording it strategic flexibility to fund R&D, manage operational costs, and weather market turbulence.
- Valuation: The current market capitalisation ($10.07 billion) reflects extensive price correction, positioning the stock at a notably attractive sales multiple (Price/Sales ~3.15) compared to historic and sector averages for innovative biotech firms with high R&D intensity.
- Competitive Positioning: Moderna is recognised as an undisputed pioneer in mRNA platform technology—a sector with immense future potential in respiratory, oncology, and rare disease applications.
- Strategic Partnerships: Collaborations with leading groups including AstraZeneca, Merck, and Vertex expand both technological and marketing scope.
- Pipeline Momentum: Up to ten product approvals are projected by 2027, with visible progress across RSV, seasonal flu, oncology, and combination therapy domains.
In summary, the correction in Moderna's valuation appears to overstate near-term headwinds, while the company is arguably entering a period of structural strength and renewal. The fundamentals, therefore, justify renewed interest from both growth-oriented and value-conscious investors.
Volume and Liquidity
- Average Daily Volume: Over 10.5 million shares traded daily ensure deep liquidity—a critical advantage for institutional and active retail investors.
- Float and Market Confidence: With 88.5% of shares in public float and capitalisation exceeding $10 billion, price discovery is efficient, and dynamic valuation prevails.
- Short Interest: 19.6% of float is currently shorted (67.27 million shares), indicating that any positive catalyst could amplify upward price movement via short covering—creating conditions for potential rapid revaluations in the short to medium term.
Such high liquidity means the stock is readily accessible for both active and strategic buyers, making it suitable for a range of investment approaches.
Catalysts and Positive Outlook
- Rich Pipeline: The forecast of up to ten regulatory approvals through 2027 presents substantive upside. Recent successes in RSV and progress in oncology vaccines illustrate the scalability of Moderna’s mRNA platform well beyond the original COVID-19 franchise.
- Cost Reduction Programme: The target of cutting nearly $1 billion in costs by end-2025 signals a shift towards operational efficiency, potentially accelerating a return to profitability.
- Innovation and R&D Execution: Ongoing investments in mRNA technology for immuno-oncology, rare diseases, and combinatory vaccine strategies (e.g., flu + COVID-19) underscore broad, sustainable growth prospects.
- Strategic Expansion: Expansion into new therapeutic markets and geographies provides insulation from sector-specific volatility and further supports a re-rating thesis.
- ESG and Responsible Innovation: Moderna’s commitment to best practices in research, intellectual property, and responsible development aligns well with the growing importance of ESG criteria among institutional investors.
- Secular tailwinds: Growing global emphasis on pandemic preparedness, government support for advanced biotechnology, and demographic shifts signal favourable long-term demand.
- Consensus and Upside Potential: The current analyst consensus 12-month price target stands at $47.70 (+77% above current market levels), while forward-looking projections highlight continued momentum in product launches and partnerships.
Taken together, these elements form a rich mix of near- and long-term levers that could catalyse further upward movement, especially if operational execution remains on track.
Investment Strategies
- Short-Term Entry: Investors focused on event-driven upside may consider tactical positioning near current support levels ($25.76–$26.00), ahead of pipeline milestones or earnings updates. The high short interest implies significant potential for sharp upward moves on positive newsflow.
- Medium-Term Play: Those seeking to capitalise on both strong technical support and upcoming data releases may anchor entries below resistance (sub-$28) and anticipate renewed institutional buying as technical reversals confirm.
- Long-Term Allocation: For investors seeking structural exposure to the evolution of mRNA and next-generation biotech, Moderna offers one of the broadest, most innovative clinical pipelines. The depressed valuation provides an attractive long-term holding point, given financial flexibility and experienced management.
Across timeframes, positioning ahead of pipeline readouts, regulatory decisions, and in periods of heightened liquidity and short exposure could present an optimal long/accumulation strategy.
Is It the Right Time to Buy Moderna?
In sum, Moderna stands at the convergence of fundamental undervaluation, robust pipeline-driven catalysts, and an evolving technical structure that may indicate the beginning of a new bullish chapter. The company’s substantial cash reserves, sector-leading mRNA innovation, and commitment to cost discipline set it apart in a rapidly consolidating biotech landscape. Recent price stabilisation near major support, high trading liquidity, and consensus analyst targets that imply substantial upside potential all contribute to a positive risk/reward outlook.
While sector volatility remains, the fundamentals strongly encourage investors to take a fresh look at Moderna as a forward-thinking allocation in the healthcare and biotechnology space—especially as 2025’s catalyst-rich environment draws closer. The current share price seems to represent an excellent opportunity to participate in the company’s next growth cycle, supported by clear structural strengths, innovative leadership, and multiple upcoming milestones.
For investors seeking transformative growth potential, Moderna may be entering a defining period that rewards conviction and a strategic, long-term perspective.
How to buy Moderna stock in New Zealand?
Buying Moderna (MRNA) shares online is both simple and secure for New Zealand investors, thanks to the range of reputable, regulated brokers now available. You can choose between two main approaches: buying the shares directly (“spot/cash buying”), or speculating on price movements using Contracts for Difference (CFDs). Each method has its own features and benefits—cash buying gives you ownership, while CFDs enable leveraged trading. Both routes are accessible, with robust security and investor protections in place. To help you find the most suitable broker and platform, we provide a comprehensive comparison further down the page.
Cash Buying
When you buy Moderna shares “for cash,” you become the direct owner of the actual shares on the NASDAQ, registered in your name or your broker’s custody. This is the classic long-term investment method: you profit if the share price rises, and you are entitled to certain shareholder rights. Most NZ-friendly brokers charge a fixed NZD commission per order, which typically ranges from NZ$5 to NZ$15.
Concrete example
If the Moderna share price is $26.93 USD (about NZ$44.00 at recent exchange rates), you can buy around 22 shares with a NZ$1,000 stake, after allowing roughly NZ$5 for a brokerage fee.
Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your 22 shares are now worth about NZ$1,100. That’s a gross gain of NZ$100, corresponding to +10% on your investment (excluding currency effects and taxes).
Trading via CFDs
CFDs (Contracts for Difference) are financial instruments that let you speculate on the price of Moderna shares without actually owning them. With CFDs, you can use leverage (borrowed funds) to boost your potential returns—or losses. Fees typically include the spread (small difference between the buy and sell price) and possible overnight financing charges, especially if you hold positions for more than a day.
Example with a NZ$1,000 stake and 5x leverage
You open a CFD position on Moderna shares, applying 5:1 leverage. This gives you exposure to NZ$5,000 worth of shares.
Gain scenario: If Moderna’s share price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%. That’s a gross gain of NZ$400 on your NZ$1,000 outlay (excluding spreads/fees). Remember, leverage increases both gains and losses.
Final Advice
Comparing brokers is essential before you invest: fees, account types, minimum deposits, and the range of available assets all vary widely. We recommend checking our detailed comparator further down this page to help you find the best fit. Ultimately, your choice between buying shares outright or trading CFDs will depend on your investment style, objectives, and the level of risk you are comfortable taking. Both methods can be suitable—choose what matches your long-term financial goals.
Check out New Zealand's best brokers!Compare brokersOur 7 tips for buying Moderna stock
| Step | Specific tip for Moderna |
|---|---|
| Analyse the market | Review sector trends in biotechnology and the recent performance of Moderna, noting the high volatility but also the strong development pipeline aiming for up to 10 new product approvals by 2027. |
| Choose the right trading platform | Select an NZ-compliant online broker that allows access to US stocks on the NASDAQ; compare transaction charges and ensure they offer tools for US-dollar investments and tax management. |
| Define your investment budget | Decide on an investment amount you’re comfortable with, keeping in mind Moderna’s share volatility and the declining revenues. Diversify your capital to manage risk. |
| Choose a strategy (short or long term) | Consider a long-term approach to benefit from Moderna’s strong cash position and diversified pipeline, but be aware of short-term volatility and regulatory uncertainty. |
| Monitor news and financial results | Stay up to date with Moderna’s quarterly results, research developments, and regulatory news—catalysts like new vaccine approvals or cancer therapy breakthroughs can move the share price. |
| Use risk management tools | Set stop-loss or limit orders, and regularly review your exposure, as MRNA’s high beta means share prices can move sharply in both directions. |
| Sell at the right time | Plan to take profits during rallies, especially when shares approach resistance levels or before significant regulatory decisions; avoid panic selling during sector downturns. |
The latest news about Moderna
Moderna saw a notable intraday share price rebound in recent trading sessions, rising 3.38% to $26.93. This uptick occurred despite a largely negative year-to-date trend and an overall loss of nearly 82% over the past year, indicating short-term buying interest around the current support zone. Technical signals remain mixed, with the relative strength index (RSI) at 48.73 (neutral), and price fluctuating near a key technical support range that has held in late May. The average analyst price target stands much higher, at $47.70, underlining ongoing market expectations of medium-term recovery potential.
Global interest in Moderna’s products remains relevant for New Zealand, where mRNA COVID-19 vaccines continue to play a role in public health planning and supply diversification. While no new local contracts or regulatory changes have been announced for New Zealand in the last week, the broader shift to a seasonal COVID-19 market and updated FDA guidance in the US could shape future regulatory decisions in New Zealand, especially considering government vaccine procurement strategies and anticipated demand fluctuations.
Despite recent US regulatory headwinds, Moderna’s strong cash position—$9.5 billion at year-end—supports ongoing R&D and product launches with global reach. For New Zealand stakeholders, this underpins reliability in vaccine supply chains and access to innovative therapies, including respiratory and rare disease vaccines still progressing through international regulatory pathways. This financial resilience is especially constructive as local healthcare providers and the NZ Ministry of Health continue to evaluate options for managing respiratory illness seasons.
Moderna continues to advance a diversified pipeline, with up to ten regulatory approvals possible by 2027 and the ongoing rollout of its RSV vaccine, mRESVIA, now generating initial revenues. These expanding respiratory and oncology offerings could become relevant for New Zealand as the country refines its national immunisation schedules and considers new products for inclusion. The successful launch of new vaccines, coupled with cost containment goals aiming to trim $1 billion in annual expenses by the end of 2025, marks a positive trajectory for operational efficiency and future margin potential.
Strategic partnerships with global pharmaceutical leaders and international market presence strongly position Moderna for long-term relevance in regions like New Zealand. Collaborations with companies such as AstraZeneca and Merck, combined with a leading position in mRNA technology, reinforce confidence in the company’s innovation potential. For institutional investors and health sector stakeholders in New Zealand, this underlines continued access to advanced biotechnology products as international regulatory trends and procurement decisions evolve.
FAQ
What is the latest dividend for Moderna stock?
Moderna does not currently pay a dividend to shareholders. The company has focused its resources on research and development, particularly expanding its pipeline in mRNA technology, instead of distributing profits. This is consistent with many biotechnology firms in their growth phase, which often reinvest earnings to drive innovation and future growth.
What is the forecast for Moderna stock in 2025, 2026, and 2027?
Based on the latest price of $26.93, projected values are $35.01 for the end of 2025, $40.40 for the end of 2026, and $53.86 for the end of 2027. These projections reflect optimism in Moderna’s robust cash position and its developing product pipeline, with up to 10 potential product approvals expected by 2027, positioning it for renewed growth in the medium and long term.
Should I sell my Moderna shares?
Holding onto Moderna shares may be appropriate as the company demonstrates strong fundamentals, including significant cash reserves and a broad, innovative R&D pipeline in respiratory and oncology therapeutics. Although recent share performance has been volatile, Moderna’s strategic efforts and position as an mRNA technology leader support its resilience in a challenging sector. Long-term investors could benefit from its future growth opportunities as new products reach the market.
How are dividends and capital gains from Moderna stock taxed for NZ investors?
For investors based in New Zealand, dividends (if ever paid) from Moderna are subject to US withholding tax, with possible credits against NZ tax. Capital gains on overseas shares like Moderna are generally taxed under the NZ Foreign Investment Fund (FIF) regime. If your total overseas shares (excluding Australian-domiciled shares) exceed NZD 50,000, you may be subject to annual FIF income calculations, so it’s important to track your international investments carefully.
What is the latest dividend for Moderna stock?
Moderna does not currently pay a dividend to shareholders. The company has focused its resources on research and development, particularly expanding its pipeline in mRNA technology, instead of distributing profits. This is consistent with many biotechnology firms in their growth phase, which often reinvest earnings to drive innovation and future growth.
What is the forecast for Moderna stock in 2025, 2026, and 2027?
Based on the latest price of $26.93, projected values are $35.01 for the end of 2025, $40.40 for the end of 2026, and $53.86 for the end of 2027. These projections reflect optimism in Moderna’s robust cash position and its developing product pipeline, with up to 10 potential product approvals expected by 2027, positioning it for renewed growth in the medium and long term.
Should I sell my Moderna shares?
Holding onto Moderna shares may be appropriate as the company demonstrates strong fundamentals, including significant cash reserves and a broad, innovative R&D pipeline in respiratory and oncology therapeutics. Although recent share performance has been volatile, Moderna’s strategic efforts and position as an mRNA technology leader support its resilience in a challenging sector. Long-term investors could benefit from its future growth opportunities as new products reach the market.
How are dividends and capital gains from Moderna stock taxed for NZ investors?
For investors based in New Zealand, dividends (if ever paid) from Moderna are subject to US withholding tax, with possible credits against NZ tax. Capital gains on overseas shares like Moderna are generally taxed under the NZ Foreign Investment Fund (FIF) regime. If your total overseas shares (excluding Australian-domiciled shares) exceed NZD 50,000, you may be subject to annual FIF income calculations, so it’s important to track your international investments carefully.
