Should I buy Moderna stock in 2025? An NZ Investor's Guide

What is Moderna?

How much is the Moderna stock?

The price of Moderna stock is rising this week. Currently, Moderna is trading at $26.93 USD, up 3.38% (+$0.88) in the past 24 hours, though down 0.79% over the last five days.

Moderna’s P/E ratio is not available due to ongoing losses, and no dividend yield is offered, while its stock beta is 2.00, indicating high volatility.

For NZ investors, this volatility presents both risks and potential opportunities in a rapidly shifting biotech sector.

Our complete analysis of the Moderna stock

After a rigorous review of Moderna’s most recent financial results and its share price evolution over the last three years, we have integrated in-depth financial analysis, technical market signals, and peer benchmarking through our proprietary algorithms. This integrated approach offers a forward-looking picture of Moderna’s position within the global biotechnology landscape. So, why might Moderna stock once again become a strategic entry point into the healthcare innovation sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Despite tremendous volatility, Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) has captured renewed market attention in the wake of operational and regulatory inflection points. As of 30 May 2025, the stock traded at $26.93, reflecting an intraday gain of +3.38%. Its 52-week range is highly pronounced ($23.15 to $158.82), illustrating both risk and the magnitude of potential upside. While the stock is down over 80% year-on-year and -35% YTD, recent days have signalled stabilising forces, pointing to the possibility of a bottoming process.

Notably, select positive events have shifted sentiment. The successful market launch of Moderna’s RSV vaccine, “mRESVIA,” generated $25 million in revenue in 2024 and underscored ongoing commercial momentum. While regulatory headwinds impacted near-term COVID-19 vaccine revenues and cancelled government contracts temporarily constrained growth, these have simultaneously prompted prudent cost management initiatives and an accelerated pipeline focus on next-generation products.

On the macro front, the biotechnology sector remains well supported by robust global demand for respiratory, oncology, and rare disease therapeutics—market segments that underpin Moderna’s diversification strategy. A favourable regulatory environment in major markets, coupled with sustained innovation in mRNA technology, reinforces the company’s long-term outlook even as post-pandemic demand for COVID-19 vaccines normalises. These crosscurrents set the stage for tactical entry, favourably positioning investors for secular healthcare growth themes relevant to New Zealand and global portfolios alike.

Technical Analysis

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): At 48.73, RSI indicates neutrality, and suggests the downtrend has paused while buyers and sellers reach equilibrium—a classic precursor to trend reversals.
• Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): With a reading of -0.25, MACD remains weak but is approaching a turning point; any momentum uptick could trigger a clear buy signal.
• Short-Term Averages: The price is marginally above its 20-day moving average ($25.89), presenting a short-term bullish tilt.
• Support and Resistance: The sturdy support zone around $25.76–$26.00 provides a technical floor. Overcoming resistance ($28.46–$28.54) and the first pivot ($27.67) could spark renewed bullish momentum in the medium term.
• Medium-Longer Term Structure: While longer-term moving averages (50, 100, 200 days) remain above the current price—structurally valid during a consolidation phase—they set clear targets for upside moves in the event of positive news, creating asymmetric risk/reward scenarios.

Overall, the current technical structure appears to favour accumulation, especially around support. This offers a compelling setup for investors seeking positions ahead of potential catalysts.

Fundamental Analysis

• Revenue Dynamics: The company reported $3.2 billion in revenue during 2024—a decline from the pandemic-driven peak but sustained by diversified vaccine sales and pipeline advances. Management estimates 2025 revenue to range between $1.5–$2.5 billion as new products scale.
• Profitability and Cash: While net losses totalled $(3.6) billion in 2024 (BPA -$9.28), the company retains an exceptionally robust cash position ($9.5 billion at year-end), affording it strategic flexibility to fund R&D, manage operational costs, and weather market turbulence.
• Valuation: The current market capitalisation ($10.07 billion) reflects extensive price correction, positioning the stock at a notably attractive sales multiple (Price/Sales ~3.15) compared to historic and sector averages for innovative biotech firms with high R&D intensity.
• Competitive Positioning: Moderna is recognised as an undisputed pioneer in mRNA platform technology—a sector with immense future potential in respiratory, oncology, and rare disease applications.
• Strategic Partnerships: Collaborations with leading groups including AstraZeneca, Merck, and Vertex expand both technological and marketing scope.
• Pipeline Momentum: Up to ten product approvals are projected by 2027, with visible progress across RSV, seasonal flu, oncology, and combination therapy domains.

In summary, the correction in Moderna's valuation appears to overstate near-term headwinds, while the company is arguably entering a period of structural strength and renewal. The fundamentals, therefore, justify renewed interest from both growth-oriented and value-conscious investors.

Volume and Liquidity

• Average Daily Volume: Over 10.5 million shares traded daily ensure deep liquidity—a critical advantage for institutional and active retail investors.
• Float and Market Confidence: With 88.5% of shares in public float and capitalisation exceeding $10 billion, price discovery is efficient, and dynamic valuation prevails.
• Short Interest: 19.6% of float is currently shorted (67.27 million shares), indicating that any positive catalyst could amplify upward price movement via short covering—creating conditions for potential rapid revaluations in the short to medium term.

Such high liquidity means the stock is readily accessible for both active and strategic buyers, making it suitable for a range of investment approaches.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

• Rich Pipeline: The forecast of up to ten regulatory approvals through 2027 presents substantive upside. Recent successes in RSV and progress in oncology vaccines illustrate the scalability of Moderna’s mRNA platform well beyond the original COVID-19 franchise.
• Cost Reduction Programme: The target of cutting nearly $1 billion in costs by end-2025 signals a shift towards operational efficiency, potentially accelerating a return to profitability.
• Innovation and R&D Execution: Ongoing investments in mRNA technology for immuno-oncology, rare diseases, and combinatory vaccine strategies (e.g., flu + COVID-19) underscore broad, sustainable growth prospects.
• Strategic Expansion: Expansion into new therapeutic markets and geographies provides insulation from sector-specific volatility and further supports a re-rating thesis.
• ESG and Responsible Innovation: Moderna’s commitment to best practices in research, intellectual property, and responsible development aligns well with the growing importance of ESG criteria among institutional investors.
• Secular tailwinds: Growing global emphasis on pandemic preparedness, government support for advanced biotechnology, and demographic shifts signal favourable long-term demand.
• Consensus and Upside Potential: The current analyst consensus 12-month price target stands at $47.70 (+77% above current market levels), while forward-looking projections highlight continued momentum in product launches and partnerships.

Taken together, these elements form a rich mix of near- and long-term levers that could catalyse further upward movement, especially if operational execution remains on track.

Investment Strategies

• Short-Term Entry: Investors focused on event-driven upside may consider tactical positioning near current support levels ($25.76–$26.00), ahead of pipeline milestones or earnings updates. The high short interest implies significant potential for sharp upward moves on positive newsflow.
• Medium-Term Play: Those seeking to capitalise on both strong technical support and upcoming data releases may anchor entries below resistance (sub-$28) and anticipate renewed institutional buying as technical reversals confirm.
• Long-Term Allocation: For investors seeking structural exposure to the evolution of mRNA and next-generation biotech, Moderna offers one of the broadest, most innovative clinical pipelines. The depressed valuation provides an attractive long-term holding point, given financial flexibility and experienced management.

Across timeframes, positioning ahead of pipeline readouts, regulatory decisions, and in periods of heightened liquidity and short exposure could present an optimal long/accumulation strategy.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Moderna?

In sum, Moderna stands at the convergence of fundamental undervaluation, robust pipeline-driven catalysts, and an evolving technical structure that may indicate the beginning of a new bullish chapter. The company’s substantial cash reserves, sector-leading mRNA innovation, and commitment to cost discipline set it apart in a rapidly consolidating biotech landscape. Recent price stabilisation near major support, high trading liquidity, and consensus analyst targets that imply substantial upside potential all contribute to a positive risk/reward outlook.

While sector volatility remains, the fundamentals strongly encourage investors to take a fresh look at Moderna as a forward-thinking allocation in the healthcare and biotechnology space—especially as 2025’s catalyst-rich environment draws closer. The current share price seems to represent an excellent opportunity to participate in the company’s next growth cycle, supported by clear structural strengths, innovative leadership, and multiple upcoming milestones.

For investors seeking transformative growth potential, Moderna may be entering a defining period that rewards conviction and a strategic, long-term perspective.

How to buy Moderna stock in New Zealand?

Buying Moderna (MRNA) shares online is both simple and secure for New Zealand investors, thanks to the range of reputable, regulated brokers now available. You can choose between two main approaches: buying the shares directly (“spot/cash buying”), or speculating on price movements using Contracts for Difference (CFDs). Each method has its own features and benefits—cash buying gives you ownership, while CFDs enable leveraged trading. Both routes are accessible, with robust security and investor protections in place. To help you find the most suitable broker and platform, we provide a comprehensive comparison further down the page.

Cash Buying

When you buy Moderna shares “for cash,” you become the direct owner of the actual shares on the NASDAQ, registered in your name or your broker’s custody. This is the classic long-term investment method: you profit if the share price rises, and you are entitled to certain shareholder rights. Most NZ-friendly brokers charge a fixed NZD commission per order, which typically ranges from NZ$5 to NZ$15.

Concrete example

If the Moderna share price is $26.93 USD (about NZ$44.00 at recent exchange rates), you can buy around 22 shares with a NZ$1,000 stake, after allowing roughly NZ$5 for a brokerage fee.
Gain scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your 22 shares are now worth about NZ$1,100. That’s a gross gain of NZ$100, corresponding to +10% on your investment (excluding currency effects and taxes).

Trading via CFDs

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) are financial instruments that let you speculate on the price of Moderna shares without actually owning them. With CFDs, you can use leverage (borrowed funds) to boost your potential returns—or losses. Fees typically include the spread (small difference between the buy and sell price) and possible overnight financing charges, especially if you hold positions for more than a day.

Example with a NZ$1,000 stake and 5x leverage

You open a CFD position on Moderna shares, applying 5:1 leverage. This gives you exposure to NZ$5,000 worth of shares.
Gain scenario: If Moderna’s share price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%. That’s a gross gain of NZ$400 on your NZ$1,000 outlay (excluding spreads/fees). Remember, leverage increases both gains and losses.

Final Advice

Comparing brokers is essential before you invest: fees, account types, minimum deposits, and the range of available assets all vary widely. We recommend checking our detailed comparator further down this page to help you find the best fit. Ultimately, your choice between buying shares outright or trading CFDs will depend on your investment style, objectives, and the level of risk you are comfortable taking. Both methods can be suitable—choose what matches your long-term financial goals.

Our 7 tips for buying Moderna stock

The latest news about Moderna

Moderna saw a notable intraday share price rebound in recent trading sessions, rising 3.38% to $26.93. This uptick occurred despite a largely negative year-to-date trend and an overall loss of nearly 82% over the past year, indicating short-term buying interest around the current support zone. Technical signals remain mixed, with the relative strength index (RSI) at 48.73 (neutral), and price fluctuating near a key technical support range that has held in late May. The average analyst price target stands much higher, at $47.70, underlining ongoing market expectations of medium-term recovery potential.

Global interest in Moderna’s products remains relevant for New Zealand, where mRNA COVID-19 vaccines continue to play a role in public health planning and supply diversification. While no new local contracts or regulatory changes have been announced for New Zealand in the last week, the broader shift to a seasonal COVID-19 market and updated FDA guidance in the US could shape future regulatory decisions in New Zealand, especially considering government vaccine procurement strategies and anticipated demand fluctuations.

Despite recent US regulatory headwinds, Moderna’s strong cash position—$9.5 billion at year-end—supports ongoing R&D and product launches with global reach. For New Zealand stakeholders, this underpins reliability in vaccine supply chains and access to innovative therapies, including respiratory and rare disease vaccines still progressing through international regulatory pathways. This financial resilience is especially constructive as local healthcare providers and the NZ Ministry of Health continue to evaluate options for managing respiratory illness seasons.

Moderna continues to advance a diversified pipeline, with up to ten regulatory approvals possible by 2027 and the ongoing rollout of its RSV vaccine, mRESVIA, now generating initial revenues. These expanding respiratory and oncology offerings could become relevant for New Zealand as the country refines its national immunisation schedules and considers new products for inclusion. The successful launch of new vaccines, coupled with cost containment goals aiming to trim $1 billion in annual expenses by the end of 2025, marks a positive trajectory for operational efficiency and future margin potential.

Strategic partnerships with global pharmaceutical leaders and international market presence strongly position Moderna for long-term relevance in regions like New Zealand. Collaborations with companies such as AstraZeneca and Merck, combined with a leading position in mRNA technology, reinforce confidence in the company’s innovation potential. For institutional investors and health sector stakeholders in New Zealand, this underlines continued access to advanced biotechnology products as international regulatory trends and procurement decisions evolve.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.