Should I buy Heartland Group Holdings stock in 2025?

What is Heartland Group Holdings?

How much is Heartland Group Holdings stock?

The price of Heartland Group Holdings stock is stable this week. Currently trading at NZ$0.79 per share, the stock shows no intraday change but has gained 1.3% over the past week.

The beta of 0.70 indicates relatively low volatility. With its defensive profile and steady returns, Heartland could appeal to NZ investors seeking stability in a shifting market.

Our full analysis on the Heartland Group Holdings stock

Having rigorously reviewed Heartland Group Holdings Limited’s (NZX: HGH) latest financial statements and thoroughly examined the share’s three-year price action, my team and I have applied our proprietary algorithms to triangulate insights from financial metrics, technical signals, peer group benchmarking, and sector trends. This multi-factor evaluation aims to clarify both the short- and long-term opportunities. So, why might Heartland Group Holdings be entering a renewed phase of attractive value, positioning it as a potential strategic entry point into the Australasian financial services sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

In 2025, Heartland’s stock price has navigated through a transitory period, currently trading at NZ$0.79—close to its 52-week low of NZ$0.70, and off from its 12-month high of NZ$1.18. Over the past week, the share price registered a modest gain of +1.3%, suggesting a stabilisation phase after a six-month drawdown of -19.39% and a one-year decline of -20.2%. This relative underperformance, however, belies underlying improvements: the recent reporting period revealed an 8.4% increase in net operating income, and sector sentiment is shifting positively as operational headwinds begin to abate.

Importantly, Heartland is executing on bold strategic moves. The group has now finalised the acquisition of Australia’s Challenger Bank Limited, reinforcing its foothold in the high-potential Australian reverse mortgage and specialist lending niche. Furthermore, the subsidiary’s elevation to Authorised Deposit Institution (ADI) status both diversifies its funding base and unlocks new growth markets.

Regionally, the macro backdrop is improving for financials. New Zealand’s interest rates are expected to remain stable, supporting net interest margins, while Australian credit demand in both retail and agribusiness segments is rebounding. This creates fertile ground for a nimble, specialist lender like Heartland to leverage its differentiated business model.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the stock offers compelling signals that a bullish reversal could be underway. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 52.0, indicating a neutral zone—with no pronounced overbought or oversold condition—a classic profile before potential upward momentum.

• The 5-day (NZ$0.784) and 20-day (NZ$0.782) moving averages generate ‘buy’ signals, underlying recent price support,
• While longer-term 50/100/200-day averages remain below the current price, suggesting that any sustained upward move through the NZ$0.80–0.82 band may catalyse further technical buying.

Importantly, the NZ$0.70 level—matching the 52-week low—has repeatedly acted as robust support, providing a hard floor against further drawdown. Should the share price break decisively above the NZ$0.80–0.82 resistance zone, it could ignite a new bullish impulse.

Aggregate technical consensus remains balanced (six ‘buy’ vs. six ‘sell’ signals via moving averages), but with short-term momentum and price structure aligning, the risk-reward equation seems increasingly skewed to the upside.

Fundamental Analysis

Despite a challenging interim result—driven mainly by prudent loan loss provisioning and transient ADI upgrade costs—Heartland continues to exhibit strong underlying fundamentals:

• Revenue and Growth: Net operating Income rose 8.4% year-on-year for 1H2025. Annually, topline revenue is projected to expand by 13.85% in FY2025 and a further 8.45% in FY2026, placing Heartland among the fastest-growing specialty lenders in Australasia.
• Profitability: While net profit after tax (NPAT) was NZ$3.6 million, underlying NPAT reached NZ$10.7 million, and aggressive provisioning is expected to moderate in the second half. Importantly, the net interest margin is anticipated to return above 4.0%.
• Valuation: With a price-to-earnings ratio of just 7.90 and a PEG ratio well below sector averages, Heartland stands out as attractive relative to both core regional banks and specialist competitors. A consensus price target of NZ$0.98 implies an upside potential of +24% from current levels.

Strategically, Heartland maintains several enduring structural strengths:

• Best-in-class positioning in reverse mortgages and niche lending products (“best or only” philosophy),
• Diversification across NZ and Australia, underpinning sustained loan book expansion,
• A highly visible brand and proven digital innovation track-record,
• Solid capitalisation and strong liquidity, ensuring resilience and flexibility to seize growth opportunities.

Volume and Liquidity

Heartland’s three-month average daily volume stands at 728,129 shares—a figure sufficient to ensure transactional liquidity and support active market participation. Notably, volume has remained resilient throughout the recent price consolidation, reflecting persistent investor engagement and a willingness of market participants to accumulate shares near technical lows.

A free float primarily listed on both NZX and ASX enhances price discovery, while a moderate market capitalisation of NZ$740.56 million makes the stock attractive to both institutional and retail investors seeking quality exposure to the specialist banking sector.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Multiple tailwinds are now coming into alignment to drive Heartland’s next phase of growth:

• Reverse Mortgage Leadership: Heartland’s market leadership in reverse mortgages—delivering +15% growth in both NZ and Australia—reflects not just demographic tailwinds but executional excellence.
• Margin Expansion: The transition to ADI status in Australia reduces funding costs and is expected to drive the net interest margin solidly above 4%, enhancing profitability.
• Australian Agribusiness Rebound: An improving outlook in the Australian livestock sector is restoring loan demand, backed by rising farmer confidence.
• Operational Efficiency: Heartland has articulated a disciplined plan for operational simplification and divestment of non-core assets, setting the stage for expense normalisation and margin recovery in FY2025 and beyond.
• ESG and Digital Initiatives: The group’s digital innovation pipeline remains robust, enhancing customer engagement and driving cost-effective expansion. Enhanced governance, notably with the appointment of Andrew Dixson as CEO, signals a renewed focus on disciplined execution and shareholder value creation.

Analyst sentiment is shifting positively: consensus forecasts indicate expected annual earnings growth north of 28%—well in excess of the broader NZX/ASX banking peer group.

Investment Strategies

Heartland’s current share price appears to offer highly favourable entry points for a range of investors:

• Short-term tacticians may find opportunity in trading the stock’s established support at NZ$0.70, with tight risk management as the share approaches the NZ$0.80–0.82 resistance zone.
• Medium-term participants gain exposure to upcoming catalysts—operational cost normalisation, further loan growth, and post-acquisition integration in Australia.
• Long-term investors can target Heartland’s defensive yield (dividend of 5.06%), robust capital base, scalable digital platform, and strong projected revenue growth. Entry at today’s multi-quarter lows could set the stage for both capital appreciation and recurring income.

Heartland also remains eligible for Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE) treatment in New Zealand, providing tax-efficient access for local investors.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Heartland Group Holdings?

In summary, Heartland Group Holdings stands at the crossroads of an inflection point, with several converging drivers poised to unlock value.

• The company’s position as a sector innovator and niche lending leader is reaffirmed by consistent loan book expansion and successful execution of its Australian strategy.
• Temporary margin compression appears largely priced into the stock, and ongoing strategic transformation is expected to materially improve underlying profitability.
• The current valuation combines an attractive entry price, sector-low P/E ratio, and a consensus analyst target suggesting material upside.
• Technical indicators and stable liquidity point to nascent upward momentum, with clear support underpinning prudent downside risk management.

With an annual dividend yield north of 5% and a robust growth outlook, Heartland Group Holdings seems to represent an excellent opportunity for investors seeking a blend of defensive income and capital growth in the Australasian financial sector. The outlook for 2025 and beyond is increasingly constructive, making now a particularly timely juncture to give this underappreciated stock closer consideration as markets rotate towards agile, specialised banking innovators.

For those seeking well-capitalised, growth-oriented exposure to New Zealand and Australian financials, Heartland Group Holdings may well be entering a new bullish phase—positioning itself as a compelling addition to any forward-looking investment portfolio.

How to buy Heartland Group Holdings stock in New Zealand?

Buying Heartland Group Holdings shares online is straightforward and secure when you use a regulated broker in New Zealand. Investors typically have two main ways to gain exposure: direct “spot” buying (cash purchase of shares) or trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs) to speculate on price movements with leverage. Each method suits different investor objectives and risk profiles. To help you choose the most cost-effective and suitable platform, you’ll find a broker comparison further down the page.

Spot Buying

A cash purchase means you buy Heartland Group Holdings shares outright through your chosen NZ-regulated broker, becoming a direct shareholder. Most NZ online brokers charge a fixed commission per order—commonly around NZ$3 to NZ$10 per trade.

Example

If Heartland Group Holdings shares are priced at NZ$0.79 each, with NZ$1,000 you could purchase approximately 1,262 shares (NZ$1,000 ÷ NZ$0.79 = 1,265, minus a typical NZ$5 brokerage fee).

Gain Scenario: If the share price rises 10% to NZ$0.87, your shares are now worth NZ$1,100.
Result: +NZ$100 gross gain, or +10% on your investment (excluding brokerage and standard taxes).

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) allow you to trade Heartland Group Holdings shares without actually owning them, instead speculating on price movements, often with leverage. With CFDs, you pay the spread (difference between buy/sell price) and overnight financing fees for positions kept open beyond a day.

Example

You open a CFD position with NZ$1,000 margin and 5x leverage. Your market exposure is now NZ$5,000.

Gain Scenario: If the share price increases by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: +NZ$400 gain on your NZ$1,000 margin (before fees and interest).

Final Advice

Before you invest, it’s essential to compare different brokers' fees, trading conditions, and available features, as these can affect your returns. Whether you opt for direct spot buying or CFD trading depends on your investment goals—long-term wealth building or short-term trading. Find a comprehensive broker comparison further down the page to guide your decision with confidence.

Our 7 tips for buying Heartland Group Holdings stock

The latest news about Heartland Group Holdings

Heartland Group Holdings stock rose 1.3% over the past week, outperforming a stable NZX market. This recent uptick, combined with stable intraday trading at NZ$0.79, reflects a renewed but measured investor confidence following a volatile six-month period, where the stock had declined more than 19%. The improved weekly price action signals early signs of stabilization, supporting the consensus technical outlook that is currently neutral to cautiously optimistic for the NZ market.

Analysts maintain a positive 12-month target price for HGH, implying a 24% upside from current levels. With a consensus target of NZ$0.98, HGH is positioned as an undervalued stock, trading at a forward Price/Earnings ratio of 7.9 and offering a robust dividend yield of 5.06%. These metrics highlight continued institutional interest and make the company attractive to New Zealand investors seeking both income and capital appreciation, particularly given its eligibility for PIE-structured investment vehicles and the resilience of its business model.

Heartland's operational momentum continues, marked by the finalized acquisition of Challenger Bank and ADI status in Australia. The successful AUD 36 million acquisition and subsequent transition of Heartland Bank Australia to an Authorised Deposit-taking Institution (ADI) have strategically extended Heartland's reach, diversified its funding sources, and paved the way for sustainable geographic and product expansion across New Zealand and Australia. These developments are recognized as constructive by market participants, with transitional costs viewed as manageable and offset by the company’s strengthened future earnings capacity.

The group reported an 8.4% rise in net operating income for 1H2025 despite market challenges. Net operating income (NOI) for the six months ended December 2024 reached NZ$155.1 million—an encouraging sign even as net profit after tax was impacted by higher provisions for doubtful debts and short-term operational costs related to strategic changes. Analysts regard this revenue growth, alongside 15% year-on-year advances in reverse mortgage lending in both New Zealand and Australia, as affirmation of Heartland’s sector leadership and resilience in its core niches.

Market sentiment towards HGH has shifted to slightly optimistic on the back of strong forecasted earnings growth. While near-term results were below expectations due to investment-heavy strategies, the current forecast anticipates annual profit growth of 28.3% and revenue expansion of nearly 14% for 2025. Given the company’s niche positioning, sector innovation, and the positive market response to ongoing operational simplification and leadership stability, seasoned NZ analysts emphasize the solid medium- to long-term outlook, underlining Heartland’s appeal as a defensive yet growth-oriented investment.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.