Should I buy Oceania Healthcare stock in 2025?

What is Oceania Healthcare?

How much is the Oceania Healthcare stock?

The price of Oceania Healthcare stock is rising this week. The current share price is NZ$0.63, showing a positive 5% change in the last 24 hours but a -4.5% drop over the past week.

With a low stock beta of 0.37, recent movements suggest limited volatility—an appealing factor for NZ-based investors seeking stability in the healthcare sector.

Our full analysis on the Oceania Healthcare stock

Following a thorough review of Oceania Healthcare’s latest financial statements, stock performance over the past three years, and in-depth analysis leveraging proprietary algorithms synthesising financial indicators, technical signals, market sentiment, and competitive dynamics, we believe the company’s shares warrant renewed scrutiny. Our multi-factor assessment highlights a blend of stability and latent upside that distinguishes Oceania Healthcare within New Zealand’s aged care and retirement sector. So, why might Oceania Healthcare once again emerge as a strategically timed entry point into the healthcare property sector for investors approaching 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Oceania Healthcare (NZX: OCA), currently trading at NZ$0.63 (as of 30 May 2025), has demonstrated noteworthy resilience and signs of recovery in a complex market environment. After an intraday gain of +5% and a robust one-year appreciation of +14.55%, the stock has recouped much of its earlier underperformance observed over the past six months (-20.25%). This suggests a gradual reversal of sentiment, catalysed by operational turnaround initiatives and sectoral tailwinds.

Notable positive events underpin this resurgence. The appointment of Suzanne Dvorak—renowned for her transformative leadership at Bupa Australia—as CEO in July 2024 was met with optimism by the market, introducing industry expertise and renewed strategic direction. Additionally, the FY2025 restructuring programme has begun yielding early operational efficiencies, with a tangible focus on cost discipline, margin preservation, and debt reduction.

Looking at the broader context, the New Zealand healthcare property sector continues to benefit from favourable long-term demand drivers. A sustained demographic shift towards an ageing population—projected to accelerate over the next decade—provides consistent underlying demand for premium retirement villages and care facilities. Regulatory support and a robust healthcare infrastructure further enhance the sector’s appeal, positioning leading operators like Oceania Healthcare to capture incremental market share as the competitive landscape evolves.

Technical Analysis

• Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14 days): Currently at 56.8, the RSI remains in an accumulation zone, indicating that buyers are gradually regaining control, yet the stock is far from overbought territory. This configuration often precedes medium-term rebounds in stocks after periods of underperformance.
• Moving Averages: The price maintains a position above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (NZ$0.611 and NZ$0.628 respectively), both yielding buy signals. These short- and mid-term averages suggest the formation of upward momentum and signal trend confirmation. While the 100-day and 200-day averages (both at ~NZ$0.64) still technically trend as resistance, the convergence of these levels with current prices accentuates the potential for a bullish crossover should upward momentum persist.
• MACD Value: The MACD (-0.004) is sending a marginally bearish signal. Yet, in the context of improving other indicators, this may simply reflect residual caution following the prior downtrend—setting the stage for a momentum shift as operational and sectoral catalysts come into play.
• Support and Resistance: The 52-week low of NZ$0.50 has repeatedly proven a strong support level, sharply limiting downside risks, while the 52-week high at NZ$0.85 delineates a plausible short-to-medium-term target in case of positive newsflow.

Overall, the blend of technical supports, strengthening averages, and emerging accumulation patterns strongly suggests that the stock may be entering a new phase of revaluation, particularly for investors employing a tactical or momentum-based approach.

Fundamental Analysis

• Revenue and Profitability: FY2025 revenue held steady at NZ$265.5 million, reflecting robust operational resilience in the face of sector headwinds. Underlying EBITDA grew 4.1% year-on-year to NZ$86.0 million, indicating disciplined cost management and improved cash flow efficiency. Although net profit slightly declined (-3.4% to NZ$30.4 million), this was largely anticipated given investments into restructuring and the pivot to a premium village model.
• Valuation Metrics: At a trailing P/E ratio of 15.75, Oceania Healthcare trades at a noticeable discount relative to both its long-term sectoral peers and its implied growth trajectory. The consensus analyst target of NZ$0.90 per share reflects a potential upside of more than 40% from current levels—supported by forward projections of 29.9% annual earnings growth.
• Strategic Positioning: With a nationwide footprint spanning 38 operational sites and capacity for over 3,400 residents (and 2,209 care beds), Oceania Healthcare enjoys clear scale advantages and asset diversity. Its sustained focus on service excellence, as evidenced by multiple industry awards, and a leading brand in premium-aged care, enhances both pricing power and occupancy trends.

Notably, recent initiatives—such as optimising operational processes under a new management team and de-leveraging the balance sheet—heighten long-term confidence in Oceania Healthcare’s ability to mitigate historical headwinds, unlock margin expansion, and sustain profitable growth.

Volume and Liquidity

Liquidity remains robust, with a three-month average daily trading volume of approximately 399,000 shares. This depth of market liquidity not only signals consistent institutional participation (with institutional ownership standing at 47%), but also provides stability and execution flexibility for new entrants—an essential quality in a segment where valuations can rapidly recalibrate as sentiment improves.

A significant public float limits risks of abrupt volatility, especially given the stock’s historically low beta (0.37). This combination of liquidity and resilience greatly appeals to both trading-oriented and long-term equity portfolios seeking diversified exposure to defensive growth themes in New Zealand.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

• Demographic Mega-Trend: New Zealand’s population is ageing rapidly, ensuring a steadily expanding addressable market for premium retirement, care, and associated health services.
• Premium Asset Pipeline: The group is actively shifting its portfolio towards premium retirement villages, with a development pipeline exceeding 1,800 new residences scheduled for phased release over the next few years. This premiumisation strategy is directly aligned with consumer demand and margin expansion priorities.
• Operational Renewal: The newly installed executive team—led by CEO Suzanne Dvorak—is advancing a multifaceted transformation program: from process digitisation and property modernisation to a laser focus on cost discipline and financial de-risking.
• Debt Reduction and Efficiency: Clear progress in operational restructuring and debt management is already visible in margin improvements and lower cost of capital, creating an attractive environment for earnings accretion.
• Market Sentiment: Analyst consensus, characterised as “Strong Buy,” underscores broad-based professional conviction regarding Oceania Healthcare’s medium-term upside potential.

In addition, the sector operates in a supportive regulatory and macroeconomic backdrop, with strong property fundamentals, increasing healthcare expenditure, and limited cyclicality—a key attraction for defensive investors.

Investment Strategies

• Short Term: Technical positioning near strong support (NZ$0.50), coupled with post-correction recovery and recent operational announcements, provides tactical traders with a classic “oversold bounce” and momentum re-rating prospect as positive news emerges.
• Medium Term: Strong sector tailwinds, operational upgrades, and the rollout of new premium facilities offer scope for a sustained rerating towards consensus targets. Upcoming trading updates and execution of the transformation plan could act as catalysts for revision in FY2026 earnings estimates.
• Long Term: For strategic investors, Oceania Healthcare stands as a quality play on secular growth in New Zealand’s senior living and healthcare real estate market. Persistent demographic tailwinds, an innovation-driven management team, and an undemanding valuation multiple lay the groundwork for compounding total returns as cash flows normalise and scale benefits fully materialise.

Given its alignment with broader megatrends, ideal positioning at technical lows, and transformation-driven narrative, the current price environment may represent an especially constructive entry point ahead of future business milestones and sector revaluations.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Oceania Healthcare?

In summary, Oceania Healthcare combines a robust competitive position, positive technical patterns, and tangible catalysts anchored in demographic growth and strategic renewal. Its underlying fundamentals are solidified by operational resilience, premiumisation of its asset base, and prudent management succession—all at an attractive valuation relative to anticipated growth.

The company’s progressive transformation under new leadership, visible operational improvements, and pipeline of high-margin developments provide a mix of credible upside and diminished cyclical risk—attributes that seem to justify renewed investor interest. With the stock currently trading at levels that may not fully reflect its re-rating potential and future earnings trajectory, the case for a material upside scenario in the coming quarters is well-founded.

For investors seeking to gain exposure to New Zealand’s burgeoning healthcare and property sectors, Oceania Healthcare stands out as a high-conviction candidate—well-positioned to enter a new bullish phase driven by both sectoral and company-specific drivers. The convergence of resilient fundamentals, structural tailwinds, and technical signals makes this an opportune moment to consider Oceania Healthcare as part of a diversified, growth-oriented portfolio focusing on the region’s demographic transformation.

For those balancing long-term growth objectives with near-term technical upside, Oceania Healthcare seems to present a rare alignment of risk and opportunity at today’s valuation.

How to buy Oceania Healthcare stock in New Zealand?

Buying Oceania Healthcare shares online is simple and secure through regulated brokers in New Zealand. As a retail investor, you can choose between two main methods: spot buying (direct ownership of shares) or trading contracts for difference (CFDs) that allow you to speculate on price movements. Both options can be executed entirely online, with funds held safely under local regulations. Each method has its own fee structure, risk, and potential reward. To help you get started, we’ve provided a broker comparison further down the page to find the best fit for your investment needs.

Cash buying

When you buy Oceania Healthcare shares for cash, you become a direct shareholder. This means you actually own the shares on the NZX (New Zealand Exchange) and can benefit from potential capital gains and certain shareholder rights. Brokers typically charge a flat commission per trade—commonly about NZ$5 per order.

Example

If the Oceania Healthcare share price is NZ$0.63, a NZ$1,000 investment (with a NZ$5 brokerage fee) allows you to acquire approximately 1,579 shares. The calculation is:
(NZ$1,000 - NZ$5 fee) ÷ NZ$0.63 ≈ 1,579 shares.

✔️ Gain scenario:
If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are then worth NZ$1,100 (1,579 × NZ$0.693).
Result: You earn a gross gain of NZ$100, or +10% on your investment.

Trading via CFD

CFD (Contract for Difference) trading lets you speculate on Oceania Healthcare share price movements without owning the underlying shares. Through CFDs, you can go long or short, and you can also use leverage to increase your market exposure. CFD trading involves two main fees: the spread (the difference between buy and sell prices) and overnight financing if you hold the position open beyond one day.

Example

Let’s say you open a NZ$1,000 CFD position with 5x leverage. This gives you exposure to NZ$5,000 worth of Oceania Healthcare shares.
If the stock price rises by 8%, your position increases in value by 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: You make a NZ$400 gross profit on your initial NZ$1,000 margin (excluding fees).

Final advice

Before investing, it’s essential to compare brokers’ fees, trading platforms, and conditions—as costs and service levels vary significantly. The best way to invest depends on your financial goals, risk tolerance, and whether you prefer direct ownership or more active trading via CFDs. Use our broker comparison table below to help you make the most informed and cost-effective choice for buying Oceania Healthcare shares in New Zealand.

Our 7 tips for buying Oceania Healthcare stock

The latest news about Oceania Healthcare

Oceania Healthcare shares jumped 5% intraday on May 30, reflecting renewed investor interest. This strong positive movement came despite a 4.5% decline earlier in the week, suggesting a rebound in sentiment possibly linked to reassuring financial disclosures and ongoing restructuring efforts. The robust intraday volume and significant upward push indicate active trading and could signal the return of buying interest from institutional and retail investors, a constructive sign for the NZX-listed stock in the current environment.

The company reported FY2025 results with stable revenues and a 4.1% rise in underlying EBITDA, emphasizing operational resilience. Oceania Healthcare's annual report, released in late May, highlighted revenues of NZ$265.5 million—steady year-over-year—and a notable improvement in underlying EBITDA to NZ$86 million. Although net profit declined slightly, these results largely met consensus expectations and demonstrated the firm’s ability to maintain profitability despite sector headwinds, which supports positive sentiment for investors in New Zealand’s healthcare sector.

Suzanne Dvorak’s recent appointment as CEO marks a strategic leadership shift focused on operational optimization. Installed in July 2024, Dvorak brings proven experience from Bupa Australia and immediately launched a comprehensive restructuring agenda. Her leadership is aimed at streamlining operations and reducing debt, reinforcing confidence in Oceania’s capability to drive value creation. This change is particularly relevant for New Zealand institutional investors, as strong, credible management is often seen as a catalyst for operational and market performance improvements.

The outlook for Oceania Healthcare is buoyed by favorable demographic trends and a solid development pipeline. Analysts project almost 30% earnings growth, backed by New Zealand’s aging population and a portfolio modernization strategy with a focus on premium retirement villages. A pipeline of over 1,800 new residences across 38 operational sites positions the company for continued expansion, aligning its growth prospects with key social and economic drivers unique to the local context.

Market sentiment has shifted to a 'Strong Buy' consensus, with analysts forecasting over 40% stock appreciation. Despite short-term challenges, including elevated debt and some sales volatility, the prevailing analyst target price of NZ$0.90 per share—well above the current NZ$0.63—reflects broad optimism. The stock’s low volatility, high-quality asset base, and recent recognition for excellence further support its appeal to professionals and institutions focused on New Zealand’s healthcare and retirement living sectors.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.