Should I buy BP stock in 2025? A New Zealand Perspective

What is BP?

How much is the BP stock?

The price of BP stock is rising this week. As of now, BP trades at $29.17 USD, showing a 0.79% gain over the last 24 hours and a 1.00% increase over the past week. The company’s market capitalisation stands at $76.2 billion USD, with an average daily trading volume of 11.99 million shares over the past three months. Currently, the P/E ratio is not applicable due to recent negative earnings, while the stock offers an attractive dividend yield of 6.63% and a low beta of 0.38, indicating relatively low volatility. This combination of strong yield and moderate movement may appeal to New Zealand investors looking for stable returns in a shifting energy market.

Our full analysis on the BP stock

We have taken an in-depth review of BP plc’s most recent financial results, integrating our proprietary multi-factor analysis spanning financial metrics, technical indicators, sector data, and peer comparisons. Alongside a rigorous assessment of BP’s price and performance trends over the past three years, our synthesis reveals fresh insights into the underlying strengths and evolving strategy of this global energy leader. So, why might BP stock once again become a strategic entry point into the diversified energy sector as we approach 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

BP’s share price is currently quoted at USD $29.17 (NYSE, as at 30 May 2025), registering a modest intraday gain of +0.79% and a 1-week increase of +1.00%. Although the stock has declined -0.48% over six months and -21.42% year-on-year, this retracement has brought BP near its 52-week low of $25.22 (versus a high of $37.58), potentially resetting its valuation baseline and raising the prospect of a technical rebound.

Significantly, the energy sector continues to attract investor attention in 2025, supported by elevated oil and gas prices amidst ongoing geopolitics and robust demand from Asia-Pacific economies. For New Zealand investors, BP’s dual listing (LSE and NYSE) and dividend stability make it an appealing option amid global macro shifts. Notable recent events, including a Q1 earnings turnaround ($0.7 billion net profit vs. Q4’s $2bn loss) and a reasserted focus on core hydrocarbons, signal a pragmatic response and operational resilience in a fast-evolving sector.

Within the competitive landscape — including Shell, ExxonMobil, and TotalEnergies — BP stands out for its decisive strategic reset. The improvement in upstream profitability, coupled with disciplined divestment, sets an emerging template for value recovery in the energy large-cap space.

Technical Analysis

• Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14 days) stands at 49.03, suggesting neutrality but with potential to pivot bullish on incremental strength.
• MACD (12,26) at 0.05 is close to signaling a move higher if new upward momentum materializes. Despite the current overall “Strong Sell” technical sentiment, the shift from oversold levels towards neutrality often precedes upward inflections.
• Price is consolidating above its 20-day moving average ($28.83; buy signal), while sitting just below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day averages ($29.55, $30.53, $30.19). This tight clustering implies forthcoming trend definition — consolidation at major support often creates a foundation for medium-term recoveries.
• Key support sits at $28.85, very close to recent closing levels, with resistance at $29.18 and pivot points clustered between $29.07–$29.24. These levels form a compact trading zone which, if breached, could drive rapid upside.
• Short-term momentum: The stock is poised for a potential bullish inflection, particularly if the MACD crosses over and volume remains robust.

In summary, BP’s technical setup suggests a period of basing, potentially preceding a new upward phase — a scenario that has historically provided attractive entry windows for long-term investors.

Fundamental Analysis

• Revenue and Cash Flow Strength: Q1 2025 saw operating cash flow of $2.8bn, bolstering annual figures of $27.3bn for 2024. Adjusted EBITDA remains formidable at $38bn, underpinning financial flexibility.
• Net Profit Recovery: While 2024’s attributable net profit ($381 million) was sharply down from 2023 ($15.2bn), the return to profitability in Q1 and growing upstream production (+2% YoY) illustrate resilient operational execution amid price volatility.
• Strategic Refocus: February’s “strategic reset” entails a decisive pivot: ambitious output growth targets (2.5 million bopd by 2030), a redoubled focus on lucrative hydrocarbons, and stringent cost discipline ($0.8bn of structural savings in 2024).
• Dividend Yield: A standout feature remains the robust dividend yield of 6.63% ($1.92 annual payout), offering a significant source of total shareholder return and income security — an appealing factor for dividend-seeking investors in New Zealand’s yield-oriented market.
• Valuation: With a market capitalization of $76.2bn and share price near historic support levels, BP’s valuation seems undemanding, particularly considering the strategic improvements underway and upside to the consensus analyst price target of $30.56 (+4.8%).
• Structural Strengths:
• Deep diversification (oil, natural gas, refining, and selective renewables)
• Resilient balance sheet and investment-grade credit
• 100+ year operational pedigree
• Ongoing innovation, especially in partnerships and upstream efficiency

With renewed focus on capital returns and productivity, BP’s fundamentals justify renewed interest from investors seeking a blend of value, income, and strategic growth optionality.

Volume and Liquidity

BP’s average daily trading volume (past 3 months) stands at nearly 12 million shares — a clear indicator of sustained market confidence and institutional engagement. This high liquidity ensures easy execution for retail and institutional investors alike, maintaining tight spreads and supporting dynamic price discovery.

Importantly, BP’s wide free float and deep global shareholder base enhance valuation transparency, providing an extra layer of defense against undue volatility and occasionally magnifying bullish momentum when investor sentiment turns positive.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

• Strategic reset (“Back to Oil and Gas”): The explicit focus on high-margin fossil fuels is already translating into growing upstream production and improved capital allocation effectiveness.
• Active portfolio optimisation: The target of reducing net debt to $14–18bn by end-2027 via non-core asset sales will further buttress the balance sheet and support future returns.
• Operational excellence: Upstream facility reliability above 95% and major project rollouts (e.g., Tangguh UCC in Indonesia, new Caspian platform) enhance production visibility.
• Joint ventures and partnerships: New collaborations (e.g., with JERA Co. for offshore wind and ONGC in India) reinforce BP’s commitment to both scale and innovation.
• Cyclical uptick in global demand: Asia-Pacific’s sustained energy appetite, especially for LNG and oil, serves as a strong structural tailwind.
• Dividend policy clarity: The company has guided for at least 4% annual dividend growth, offering income visibility.
• Sector sentiment reset: As global inflation moderates and oil prices remain elevated, integrated majors such as BP could re-emerge as core value plays.

These drivers point to a multi-year positive upcycle, with BP uniquely positioned to benefit due to its diversified platform and capital allocation discipline.

Investment Strategies

BP’s current technical and fundamental backdrop provides arguments for entry across investment timeframes:

• Short-term strategies:
• Entry near key technical supports ($28.85) offers a defined risk/reward setup for short-term traders, particularly ahead of potential catalysts such as the August results release or positive sectoral price moves.
• The current consolidation phase allows for tactical positioning with stops below recent lows.
• Medium-term strategies:
• Investors may target the consensus analyst price objective ($30.56) and higher resistance levels ($35), anticipating an upward re-rating driven by improved earnings visibility, debt reduction progress, and dividend growth news-flow.
• The next quarters could see market sentiment shift as financial improvements and operational milestones are digested.
• Long-term strategies:
• BP’s refocusing on hydrocarbons, aggressive cost rationalisation, and robust capital return strategy (including attractive dividends) make it an interesting candidate for portfolios seeking both income and capital appreciation.
• With management targeting transformative growth through 2030 and the portfolio actively repositioned, patient investors could be rewarded as the value unlocking process matures.
• Participation in global megatrends (energy security, Asia demand, upstream expansion) further strengthens the long-term case.

Altogether, entry around current levels seems to represent an excellent opportunity for both new and existing shareholders looking to position ahead of likely positive catalysts and a prospective sector rerating.

Is it the Right Time to Buy BP?

In summary, BP stands at a pivotal moment: the company’s strategic reset is already showing operational benefits and positioning BP for efficiency-driven growth in an energy-hungry world. Its current price level, robust dividend yield, improving profitability, and structural strengths suggest the stock may be entering a new bullish phase. With upcoming catalysts — including additional asset sales, debt reduction, continued operational execution, and potentially favourable macro trends — the balance of risks and rewards appears notably attractive.

For New Zealand investors seeking exposure to global energy leaders with compelling value, dependable income, and the potential for capital appreciation, BP stock seems to stand out as a case deserving close scrutiny and renewed conviction. The confluence of operational progress, strong liquidity, and strategic catalysts provides an ideal environment for those considering a timely portfolio addition. In this context, BP may well offer a strategically sound entry point for investors willing to look beyond short-term volatility and focus on long-term value creation.

By focusing on disciplined capital allocation, maximizing core asset returns, and maintaining dividend resilience, BP is arguably on the cusp of regaining its stature among global energy majors — making the current environment one of genuine opportunity for forward-looking investors.

How to buy BP stock in New Zealand?

Buying BP (BP p.l.c.) shares online is a straightforward and safe process when you use a regulated broker in New Zealand. Investors can choose between two main methods: purchasing actual BP shares (spot buying) for long-term ownership, or trading BP shares via Contracts for Difference (CFDs) for leveraged, short-term exposure. Each method offers distinct benefits and risks, fitting various investment styles. To help you pick the right fit according to your goals and budget, a comprehensive broker comparison is available further down the page.

Spot buying

A cash (or spot) purchase means buying actual BP shares, making you a direct shareholder entitled to dividends and potential capital gains. The main fees involved are typically a fixed brokerage commission per order, which for New Zealand online brokers is usually around NZD $5–$15. There might be small FX conversion fees if buying on the NYSE (in USD).

Practical example

If BP’s share price is USD $29.17, and the NZD/USD rate is 0.61, each share costs about NZD $47.85. With a NZD $1,000 investment, you can buy approximately 20 shares (totaling NZD $957), including a NZD $5 brokerage fee.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If BP’s share price rises by 10%, your shares would now be worth NZD $1,100.
Result: That’s a NZD $100 gross gain, or +10% on your investment.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading (Contract for Difference) lets you speculate on BP share price movements with leverage, without owning real shares. With CFDs, you can profit from both rising and falling markets. Brokers charge a spread (the difference between buy and sell price) and, if you hold positions overnight, a daily financing (swap) fee.

Practical example

You open a CFD on BP with NZD $1,000 and 5x leverage, giving you market exposure of NZD $5,000.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If BP’s share price climbs 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: This means a NZD $400 gain, on a NZD $1,000 outlay (excluding any spreads and overnight fees).

Final advice

Before investing, it’s essential to compare brokers’ fees, currency exchange conditions, and trading platforms, as these can affect your performance. Ultimately, your choice between spot buying and CFD trading should align with your investment goals, risk appetite, and time horizon. For more details tailored to New Zealand investors, consult our broker comparison lower down this page.

Our 7 tips for buying BP stock

The latest news about BP

BP shares recorded a weekly gain of 1% and an intraday increase of 0.79% at $29.17. This recent price movement reflects a modest but constructive trend for shareholders, aligning with an overall neutral to optimistic tone echoed by some technical indicators. Notably, the 20-day moving average currently signals a buying opportunity, suggesting short-term momentum despite neutral readings for the relative strength index. For New Zealand investors, this resilience is significant amid global oil price fluctuations and rising regional energy demand, supporting the stock’s appeal as a stable large-cap holding in internationally diversified portfolios.

BP reported robust Q1 2025 results with a return to net profitability and higher operating cash flow. The company disclosed an underlying RC profit of $1.4 billion and declared net profit of $0.7 billion in Q1 2025, a clear improvement from a $2.0 billion net loss in Q4 2024. Operating cash flow reached $2.8 billion, underscoring BP’s ability to generate liquidity even in a dynamic market environment. These results are particularly relevant for New Zealand institutional investors with exposure to BP in pension or managed funds, as they point to improved financial discipline and operational strength that may enhance income stability and lower portfolio risk.

BP’s high and resilient dividend yield of 6.63% remains a key attraction for yield-focused investors. The annual payout of $1.92 per share, coupled with guidance for at least a 4% annual increase going forward, reinforces BP’s commitment to shareholder returns. With many New Zealand investors seeking international equities for dividend income—often held in retirement vehicles or global diversified strategies—BP’s dividend profile stands out as an appealing feature, especially given the persistently low yields in domestic bonds and a relatively limited local energy sector.

BP’s strategic pivot to focus on high-margin oil and gas, coupled with operational efficiency, supports its medium-term outlook. The company’s “fundamental reset,” announced earlier this year, entails reducing low-return low-carbon investments and reallocating capital to its most profitable upstream projects. Cost savings of $0.8 billion for 2024 and the targeting of output growth to 2.5 million barrels per day by 2030 further bolster this approach. This recalibration is especially pertinent for New Zealand investors given the country's exposure to commodity cycles and the rising importance of stable offshore energy suppliers, with BP’s Asia-Pacific operations supporting regional energy security.

Positive analyst consensus suggests moderate price upside and underpins a “Hold” recommendation for BP stock. The average target price stands at $30.56 (4.77% above current levels), with three “Buy” and eight “Hold” ratings and only one “Sell.” Market sentiment, while cautious, appears to be stabilizing as BP demonstrates improved profitability, maintains an investment grade credit rating, and delivers consistent dividend payments. This consensus, with a slight positive tilt, offers a degree of reassurance for New Zealand market participants assessing BP’s risk-reward profile versus local and regional alternatives.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.