Should I buy Air New Zealand stock in 2025?

What is Air New Zealand?

How much is the Air New Zealand stock?

The price of Air New Zealand stock is declining this week. Currently trading at NZD 0.60, the stock is down 0.83% over the past 24 hours, with a weekly change also at -0.83%. Air New Zealand's market capitalisation stands at NZD 1.997 billion, with a 3-month average volume of 1.475 million shares. The stock’s P/E ratio is 15.00, the dividend yield is 4.13%, and it has a beta of 0.69, reflecting lower volatility than the broader NZ market. While short-term pressures persist, its moderate volatility and solid dividend offer a balance of stability and potential for NZ investors.

Our full analysis on the Air New Zealand stock

Having reviewed Air New Zealand’s latest financial results as well as the stock’s dynamic movements over the past three years, we fed key financial indicators, technical signals, market data, and peer comparisons into our proprietary analytical algorithms. This multi-faceted approach provides a comprehensive perspective on the company’s outlook, balancing upside potential with a pragmatic view of current market trends. So, why might Air New Zealand stock once again become a strategic entry point into the APAC transport sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Air New Zealand (AIR.NZ) has displayed resilience and adaptability amidst a challenging global aviation environment. As of 30 May 2025, the stock trades at NZD 0.60, reflecting a one-year appreciation of +15.38% and a six-month rise of +8.11%. While the recent week saw a modest -0.83% dip, this movement remains well within the upper half of its 52-week range (NZD 0.515 – 0.65), suggesting solid investor interest and relative price strength.

Key positive recent developments include the company exceeding analyst expectations for the full-year 2024 and posting a robust pre-tax profit for H1 2025, which management described as “solid.” Market participants have responded favourably to the company’s proactive approach to operational challenges and strategic innovations. Furthermore, the recovery of air traffic post-COVID, pent-up demand in Australasia, and increasing international passenger flows contribute to a favourable macroeconomic backdrop for regional airline carriers. Air New Zealand’s unique position as the national carrier, together with government backing and market share dominance, strengthens its appeal relative to peers, particularly in a region where travel and tourism are pivotal economic drivers.

Technical Analysis

A technical review of AIR.NZ as of late May 2025 reveals a balanced yet potentially constructive landscape. Core oscillators such as the 14-day RSI (51.01) and Stochastic %K (40) signal a neutral positioning, suggesting the stock is neither overbought nor oversold—an advantageous spot for investors seeking to enter ahead of a possible move higher. The MACD indicator (0.002) marginally hints at caution, yet the composite picture is far from bearish.

Examining moving averages, support is evident at the 50-day (NZD 0.599) and 200-day (NZD 0.578) levels, both generating bullish signals. Meanwhile, the 20-day (NZD 0.600) and 100-day (NZD 0.608) averages are more neutral to slightly negative in the short term. The key support zone at NZD 0.573 (S1 Pivot) has held consistently, while resistance is positioned at NZD 0.623 (R1 Pivot), offering a clear technical roadmap. With the broader trend described as “neutral with mixed signals,” there exists strong potential for a bullish reversal if positive catalysts materialise, making current pricing appear attractive for accumulation.

Fundamental Analysis

On a fundamental basis, Air New Zealand’s investment profile is solidifying after a period of post-pandemic volatility. The 2024 fiscal year closed with revenue of NZD 6.68 billion and a net profit of NZD 123 million, notably outperforming consensus despite a temporary 61% drop in pre-tax earnings due to one-off headwinds (engineering and capacity constraints).

Importantly, recent earnings updates reinforce management confidence in delivering a FY25 profit before tax in the NZD 150–190 million range, with H1 2025 already contributing NZD 155 million—a testament to cost discipline and market agility. The current P/E ratio of 15.00 (TTM) is compelling against both historical averages and sector comparables, while a price/book ratio of 0.98 suggests the stock is trading at a fair discount to underlying asset value.

Furthermore, a dividend yield of 4.13% demonstrates a commitment to shareholder returns even amidst reinvestment cycles, underpinning AIR.NZ’s credentials as a quality income play. The company’s innovation in passenger comfort—such as the soon-to-launch Business Premier Luxe on the 787—affirms its first-mover edge. With a fleet of 110 aircraft, a growing network across key international and regional routes, and powerful brand equity as a Star Alliance member, Air New Zealand’s structural strengths remain firmly in place.

Volume and Liquidity

Trading liquidity is a key indicator of market confidence, and AIR.NZ boasts a robust average daily volume of 1.475 million shares (with spikes to 2.73 million on high newsflow days). With more than 1.6 billion shares in public float out of a 3.326 billion total, there is ample room for dynamic valuation and active trading. The relatively low 5-year beta (0.69) provides investors with the added benefit of portfolio stability, tempering systematic risk yet offering upside exposure to sector momentum.

Heavily traded days often coincide with favourable news cycles, suggesting that institutional and retail investors remain actively engaged, further supporting valuation resilience and the potential for positive short- to medium-term price action.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Looking ahead, several bullish catalysts are poised to drive renewed investor interest:

• Product Innovation: The unveiling of its new business class on the Boeing 787, set for launch in May 2025, reinforces Air New Zealand’s reputation for passenger-centric innovation and could stimulate premium travel demand.
• Sustainability Leadership: New ESG initiatives and 2030 emission targets, announced in April 2025, align with evolving regulatory and consumer trends—positioning AIR.NZ as a global aviation sustainability leader.
• Recovering Traffic: The continued post-pandemic rebound in international and Trans-Tasman travel is fuelling capacity growth (760,000 new seats added network-wide), supporting both top-line expansion and improving load factors.
• Strategic Partnerships: As a key Star Alliance member, Air New Zealand benefits from multilateral codesharing, extended route reach, and shared cost efficiencies—amplifying competitive advantage over regional rivals.
• Government Shareholding: The majority stake held by the New Zealand government acts as a stabiliser, particularly appealing in times of industry volatility.

Crucially, management’s pragmatic guidance for 2025, despite ongoing Rolls-Royce engine supply chain constraints (which are expected to ease by mid-2026), demonstrates a realistic and de-risked approach. This transparency strengthens investor confidence in the path to sustainable recovery and margin improvement.

Investment Strategies

From an investment strategy standpoint, Air New Zealand offers a range of compelling arguments for both tactical and strategic positioning:

• Short-Term: Active traders may look to accumulate positions near technical support (NZD 0.573) with potential to trade momentum towards resistance (NZD 0.623), especially around news events—such as new product launches or traffic updates—that could spark positive sentiment.
• Medium-Term: Investors with a 6–12 month horizon might be attracted by the prospect of dividend yields, the company’s forecasted earnings recovery, and anticipated catalysts from operational improvements and ESG leadership. The consensus target price of NZD 0.69 implies further upside (~15% from current levels), while our model-derived target pegs fair value as high as NZD 0.78 (+30%).
• Long-Term: Strategic investors seeking stable income and structural sector exposure will find Air New Zealand’s robust balance sheet, government backing, market-leading position, and ambitious sustainability roadmap highly appealing. Entering at current levels or on technical pullbacks appears well justified, particularly for those anticipating an easing of operational disruptions in 2026.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Air New Zealand?

In summary, Air New Zealand presents a compelling investment profile underlined by:

• Solid post-pandemic business recovery and improved earnings quality
• Attractive valuation metrics (P/E, price/book, dividend yield)
• Strong technical support levels and neutral to optimistic momentum
• Rising passenger volumes, product innovation, and progressive ESG strategies
• Robust liquidity, government support, and a resilient, world-recognised brand

With a suite of catalysts on the horizon—from operational recovery, new premium offerings, to sector tailwinds and sustainability initiatives—the underlying fundamentals strongly justify renewed investor interest. For those seeking a quality opportunity in the transport and travel sector, Air New Zealand stock may be entering a new bullish phase, offering the potential for both capital appreciation and income in an evolving market.

Amidst a sector undergoing transformation, Air New Zealand stands uniquely poised for growth—meriting serious consideration as a strategic addition for investors attuned to emerging opportunities in the region’s dynamic travel landscape.

How to buy Air New Zealand stock in NZ?

Buying Air New Zealand shares online is both straightforward and secure, especially when using a regulated broker in New Zealand. Today’s digital trading platforms give retail investors easy access to AIR.NZ stock, with the choice to either buy shares outright (spot purchase) or to trade using Contracts for Difference (CFDs) which enable leveraged exposure. Each method has its own profile, suited to different investment goals and risk profiles. To help you get started wisely, you’ll find a thorough broker comparison further down the page—an essential step for any new or experienced investor.

Spot Buying (Cash Purchase)

A spot or “cash” purchase means you’re buying real Air New Zealand shares on the New Zealand Exchange (NZX) in your own name. As a shareholder, you benefit from price movements and may also receive any dividends issued. Transaction fees for NZX-listed shares typically include a fixed brokerage commission per order—around NZD 5–12, depending on the broker.

Example

If the Air New Zealand share price is NZD 0.60, with NZD 1,000 you could purchase roughly 1,658 shares (allowing NZD 5 as brokerage).

• Calculation: (NZD 1,000 – NZD 5 commission) ÷ NZD 0.60 = 1,658 shares.

Gain Scenario

If the share price rises by 10%, your shares would now be worth NZD 1,100.

Result: +NZD 100 gross gain, a +10% return on your investment (excluding any taxes or additional fees).

Trading Air New Zealand Shares via CFDs

CFDs, or Contracts for Difference, allow you to trade on Air New Zealand’s share price without owning the underlying shares. This method often suits investors seeking leveraged exposure or those interested in short-term price moves. CFD trading typically involves paying a spread (the difference between buy and sell prices) and may incur overnight financing fees if you hold positions after market close.

Example

You decide to open a CFD position on Air New Zealand with NZD 1,000, using 5x leverage.

• This gives you market exposure of NZD 5,000.

Gain Scenario

If the share price increases by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.

Result: +NZD 400 gain on a NZD 1,000 margin (before fees—be sure to account for spreads and any overnight financing charges).

Final Advice

Before committing your capital, always compare the fees, trading conditions, and regulatory protections offered by each broker—these factors can significantly impact your returns. Whether you choose to buy Air New Zealand shares directly, favour the flexibility of CFDs, or even both, make sure the strategy fits your investment horizon and risk appetite. You’ll find a detailed broker comparator further down this page to help you select the right platform for your needs. Happy investing!

Our 7 tips for buying Air New Zealand stock

The latest news about Air New Zealand

Air New Zealand launched its new business class product on Boeing 787 aircraft on 19 May 2025, reinforcing premium positioning and customer experience. This introduction reflects the airline's ongoing commitment to innovation and passenger comfort, enhancing its competitive advantage on long-haul international routes. The updated business class, which coincides with the high-demand Northern Hemisphere summer season, is expected to improve yield and appeal to both corporate and leisure travellers, addressing a key segment for margin expansion. Early market response in New Zealand media and on social platforms has been positive, reflecting boosted brand sentiment.

The company’s recent financial performance for FY2024 and early 2025 has exceeded analysts' expectations despite global headwinds. Air New Zealand reported a net profit of NZD 123 million for FY2024 and pre-tax profit of NZD 155 million for the first half of 2025, both surpassing consensus forecasts. Management described these figures as “solid,” even in the face of ongoing operational challenges, demonstrating robust revenue management and cost control in a volatile environment. The strong result underpins analyst optimism, with consensus price targets set at NZD 0.69, about 15% above the current price.

There has been a marked recovery in demand and capacity growth, with over 760,000 seats added network-wide through 2024. This expansion directly benefits the New Zealand market, improving connectivity and supporting tourism—a key national economic driver. The airline’s dominant local market share and exclusive Pacific routes uniquely position it to capitalise on the post-COVID travel rebound. Trends indicate resilient demand on trans-Tasman and domestic routes, helping to stabilise yields and provide a base for future profit growth.

Air New Zealand strengthened its sustainability strategy by issuing a revised 2030 carbon emissions target in April 2025, aligning with evolving ESG expectations among investors and regulators. This update confirms the company’s leadership role in sustainable aviation within the region, which is particularly relevant given New Zealand’s regulatory momentum on climate issues. The proactive stance safeguards licence-to-operate, improves appeal to ESG-conscious capital, and positions Air New Zealand favourably in future government or institutional partnerships.

The share continues to deliver an attractive dividend yield of 4.13%, with a low price-to-book ratio (0.98) and a positive 12-month return of over 15%. Despite engine-related operational headwinds that have sidelined up to 20% of the fleet (primarily Boeing 787s), the company maintains strong liquidity and remains majority-owned by the New Zealand government—a significant reassurance for local investors. The combination of dividends, market recovery, state support, and a robust strategic plan underpin moderate-to-positive sentiment among New Zealand analysts.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.