Should I buy United Airlines stock in 2025? A Guide for New Zealand Investors

What is United Airlines?

How much is United Airlines stock?

The price of United Airlines stock is rising this week. As of now, UAL shares trade at $78.57 USD, up $1.07 (+1.38%) in the past 24 hours, and showing a strong 5.25% gain over the last week.

The company’s market capitalisation stands at $25.31 billion, with an average three-month trading volume of 9.73 million shares. United Airlines has a P/E ratio of 7.16, a beta of 1.58, and currently does not pay a dividend.

With above-average volatility and renewed strategic momentum, United Airlines may attract NZ investors seeking growth potential and sector exposure.

Our full analysis on United Airlines stock

After reviewing United Airlines’ (NASDAQ: UAL) most recent financial results and evaluating its share performance across the last three years, our analysis employs a rigorous, multi-factor approach. By integrating quantitative indicators, technical signals, market data, and a comparative sector framework—processed via proprietary valuation algorithms—United Airlines emerges with a refreshed investment profile. So, why might United Airlines stock once again represent a compelling strategic entry point into global aviation in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

United Airlines, a global leader in the airline sector, has displayed remarkable resilience and strength over the past year. As of 30 May 2025, UAL’s share price stands at $78.57, up 51.6% year-on-year, outperforming multiple indices and several direct competitors. Notably, the stock has staged a 14.2% rally in the last month, indicating a resurgence of investor confidence and a return to bullish sentiment after a period of sector volatility.

Several positive catalysts have propelled this momentum. In May, United announced a highly strategic partnership with JetBlue Airways, reopening access to New York’s coveted JFK airport and unlocking transcontinental synergies. At the same time, the company tackled operational headwinds—such as temporary constraints at Newark Airport—with remarkable agility, adapting flight schedules and maintaining robust guidance. The macro backdrop for major airlines is increasingly favourable: global air travel demand, especially for premium and long-haul services, continues to rebound above pre-pandemic levels, underpinned by strong consumer and business travel spending, improving jet fuel dynamics, and supportive economic indicators in key markets.

For investors in New Zealand (where global diversification and sector exposure are key themes), UAL stands out as a leading US-listed airline with a truly international presence, offering an indirect play on both North American and broader global economic recovery.

Technical Analysis

Technical signals strongly support the case for current upward momentum in UAL shares. Key observations include:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14-day): At ~50.2, RSI indicates a neutral position, suggesting the stock is neither overbought nor oversold and is well-poised for further gains.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD at 1.28 generates a clear buy signal, reinforcing the probability of a sustained bullish phase.
• Price vs. Moving Averages: UAL trades comfortably above its 200-day moving average, an important bullish threshold that highlights medium- and long-term strengthening.
• Support and Resistance: Technical support at $77.00 offers a floor to recent price action, while immediate resistance at $80.76 represents the next technical challenge; a break above could trigger further positive flows. $116.00, the 52-week high, marks a potential medium-term target, underlining the stock’s powerful recovery potential.

Price action confirms that United Airlines is entering a structurally attractive zone—one typically favoured by institutional buyers as well as momentum-driven strategies.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamentally, United Airlines projects a robust and increasingly attractive profile on multiple metrics:

• Revenue and Profitability: Third-quarter 2024 revenues reached $14.8 billion, up 2.5% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $3.33 handily beating consensus forecasts. Trailing-twelve-month turnover was $57.7 billion, delivering net profits of $3.66 billion—providing a net margin of 6.34%. The company’s ROE stands out at 33.6%, underscoring high operational efficiency and effective capital management.
• Valuation: At a price/earnings ratio (TTM) of just 7.16, UAL trades at a meaningful discount to both the broader market and many sector peers. Despite this, its growth trajectory and strategic initiatives seem underappreciated in the present valuation—an anomaly that could attract value-oriented and growth investors alike. The consensus 12-month price target is $96.00 (+22%), with some analysts projecting potential upside towards $102.14. Price/sales and PEG further confirm valuation attractiveness.
• Structural Strengths: The JetBlue partnership immediately expands United’s North American network, delivers access to sought-after slots at JFK, and strengthens the company’s position in both premium and leisure travel. United’s service innovation—such as premium experiences for high-value clients—and its footprint across five continents serve to reinforce its competitive moat.

These fundamentals, coupled with a forward-looking management team and brand strength, provide a platform for sustained outperformance.

Volume and Liquidity

Trading liquidity is a key factor for NZ and global investors seeking dynamic price action and low transaction friction. United Airlines boasts an average three-month trading volume of 9.73 million shares, with a float of 324.5 million shares. This demonstrates robust liquidity, facilitating efficient entry and exit points, and supporting the thesis that institutional capital continues to see value here. The sustained high volume—particularly during upward price swings—typically acts as a vote of confidence from sophisticated investors and reinforces the credibility of price moves.

The current float is also conducive to dynamic price re-rating as new investors rotate back into the sector and as buybacks (see below) gradually reduce supply.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several significant catalysts anchor the bull thesis and offer upside for various investment timeframes:

• JetBlue Partnership: This “Blue Sky” alliance opens new market segments, leverages loyalty program synergies, and enhances route flexibility, especially vital for high-demand corridors in North America.
• Premium Travel Demand: Research by Goldman Sachs and others highlights an ongoing uptrend in premium-class travel—an area where United is actively innovating (such as caviar service, luxury pyjamas, and enhanced onboard experiences).
• Share Buyback Programme: A newly announced $1.5 billion buyback (as of Q3 2024) signals management confidence, improves per-share metrics, and may provide an ongoing tailwind for the stock price as repurchases accumulate.
• Strong Cash Flow Generation: In 2024, United delivered $7.2 billion in operating cash flow and $3.4 billion in free cash flow, creating ample capacity for both reinvestment and shareholder returns, even as it maintains prudent capital allocation.
• Market Optimism: Consensus analyst ratings remain predominantly “Buy,” buttressed by constructive market sentiment—even amid temporary operational turbulence. Importantly, these recommendations are not yet fully reflected in the valuation, indicating further upside potential.
• ESG and Competitive Position: United’s commitment to sustainable aviation technology, coupled with its global reach and diversified route map, further enhances its long-term growth story.

These intersecting drivers, together with the resolution of short-term operational bottlenecks (such as Newark flight reductions), set the stage for accelerated earnings and valuation catchup.

Investment Strategies

United Airlines is appealing for a variety of entry points, whether viewed through a short-, medium-, or long-term lens:

• Short-Term: Recent technical signals, particularly the bullish MACD and neutral RSI, as well as proximity to support levels, position UAL favourably for tactical entries—especially ahead of further news flow related to the JetBlue integration and any positive operational updates regarding Newark.
• Medium-Term: Ongoing share buybacks, recovery in key international and domestic travel corridors, and further evidence of operational leverage establish a foundation for capital appreciation. The next two quarters—often seasonally strong—could catalyse meaningful re-ratings.
• Long-Term: United’s continued expansion, technology investment, and resilient brand offer clear visibility for multi-year growth. The company’s leadership in premium aviation, sustainable travel, and broad network reach point to structural advantages well into the next economic cycle.
• Ideal Positioning: Technically, the current share price trades above long-term moving averages and just off strong support, yet below key resistance—offering an attractive risk/reward “window.” From a fundamental perspective, acquiring exposure ahead of expected catalysts (buybacks, further unlocking of partnership value, possible upward earnings revisions) seems especially advantageous for investors aiming to maximise longer-term returns while tolerating moderate volatility.

Is It the Right Time to Buy United Airlines?

United Airlines presents a compelling investment case, defined by several converging strengths:

• Proven revenue growth and profitability exceeding analyst expectations;
• A meaningfully discounted valuation compared to sector and historic averages;
• A major new partnership (JetBlue) delivering clear strategic synergies;
• Robust cash generation supporting both future growth and shareholder value return;
• Strong technical structure with evident buy-side momentum and support.

While any equity with a cyclical component and sector-specific risks demands prudent monitoring, the mounting evidence points to United Airlines entering a new phase of operational excellence and market recognition. For NZ investors searching for globally diversified, high-upside opportunities—especially in sectors positioned for cyclical and structural recovery—UAL seems to represent an excellent opportunity to capitalise on the travel renaissance and United’s unique position at the intersection of resilience and innovation.

In sum, United Airlines offers a rare blend of compelling valuation, strong fundamentals, and growth catalysts that appear to justify renewed interest—and may be signaling the early stages of a new bullish phase for one of the world’s most dynamic airline stocks.

How to buy United Airlines stock in New Zealand?

Buying United Airlines (UAL) shares online is now easier and safer than ever for New Zealand investors, thanks to well-regulated brokers. You have two main ways to get exposure: either by buying shares directly (“spot buying”, making you a shareholder) or by trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which let you speculate on price movements without owning the stock. Both methods are accessible online, and funds are held with licensed brokers. To pick the best platform, be sure to read our broker comparison guide below.

Spot Buying

A cash purchase (or spot buying) means you buy United Airlines shares outright on a stock market such as the NASDAQ. As an owner, you benefit directly from price increases and any future dividends (United Airlines currently does not pay a dividend). Kiwi brokers typically charge a fixed commission per trade, often around NZD $5–10 per order.

Example

Suppose the current United Airlines share price is USD $78.57 (around NZD $129 as of June 2025). With NZD $1,000 to invest and a brokerage fee of about $5, you can buy approx. 7 shares ($1,000 minus $5 = $995 → $995 ÷ $129 ≈ 7 shares).

✔️ Gain Scenario: If the share price rises by 10%, your shares would be worth NZD $1,100.
Result: That’s a +$100 gross gain, or +10% on your original investment.

Trading via CFDs

CFD (Contract for Difference) trading on United Airlines stock lets you speculate on the price rising or falling, without actually owning the shares. CFDs are popular for their flexibility, including the use of leverage (borrowing trading power from the broker). Fees for CFDs typically include a spread (the difference between buying and selling prices) and, if you keep positions open overnight, daily financing costs.

Example

You open a CFD position on United Airlines with $1,000 and 5x leverage, giving you $5,000 effective market exposure.

✔️ Gain Scenario: If the share price climbs by 8%, your CFD position delivers 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: That’s a $400 gain on your $1,000 stake (before fees).

Final Advice

Before making any investment, it’s essential to compare broker fees, platform features, and trading conditions. The right choice depends on your goals: spot buying is ideal for long-term investors, while CFDs suit those interested in flexible, short-term strategies—just remember CFDs carry higher risk. Ready to get started? Refer to our broker comparison further down this page to find an option that fits your needs.

Our 7 tips for buying United Airlines stock

The latest news about United Airlines

United Airlines stock posted a strong 5-day gain of over 5% and remains on a bullish trajectory. In the past week, United Airlines shares have advanced by 5.25%, outpacing the broader sector and pushing the price to $78.57 as of May 30, 2025. The stock trades above its 200-day moving average and benefits from a positive MACD signal, while the RSI of 50.16 reflects a balanced market sentiment. This recent surge is underpinned by constructive financial updates and optimism over strategic partnerships, further strengthened by a consensus analyst price target of $96, signaling a potential upside of about 22%. For NZ investors, this performance reflects the resilience and potential of a major international carrier with indirect connectivity importance to New Zealand's global mobility.

United Airlines has surpassed quarterly expectations, driven by robust revenue and profitability metrics. The company reported third-quarter 2024 revenue of $14.8 billion, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year increase, and an adjusted earnings per share of $3.33 versus the expected $3.17. The strong profit margin (8.7%) and a significant net income of $3.66 billion (TTM) demonstrate effective cost controls and healthy demand, with management outperforming analyst expectations. Such results contribute to solid investor confidence and positively influence the share price, offering reassurance to professional investors in New Zealand who prioritize financial stability and growth in international carriers frequently servicing inbound and outbound travel.

The strategic partnership with JetBlue opens new market opportunities and enhances United’s competitive positioning. Announced in May 2025, the "Blue Sky" collaboration reinstates United’s access to New York JFK, enables reciprocal loyalty benefits, and amplifies network reach on both U.S. coasts and internationally. This development not only strengthens United's market offering but also creates operational synergies and revenue enhancement prospects, which are particularly relevant to New Zealand’s travelers accessing North American destinations or connecting globally. The partnership is seen as a major step in shoring up United’s international presence, which could benefit NZ-resident travelers and investors seeking exposure to global airline growth.

Strong cash flow generation and a substantial share buyback program signal robust capital allocation and support future growth. In Q3 2024, United announced a $1.5 billion share repurchase initiative and reported operating cash flows of $7.2 billion and free cash flow of $3.4 billion for the year. This robust financial management reflects the airline’s capacity to weather sector volatility and invest in further expansion or return capital to shareholders. For NZ institutional and retail investors, such actions underline prudent capital stewardship and signal management’s confidence in the company’s long-term fundamentals, potentially making UAL an attractive portfolio holding within international equities allocations.

Market analysts retain a "Buy" consensus on UAL, highlighting its valuation attractiveness and future growth prospects. The stock’s forward price/earnings ratio of 7.16 and return on equity of over 33% point to compelling value characteristics, especially compared to global airline peers. With 26 analysts recommending "Buy" and TP estimates ranging from $76 to $130, United is widely viewed as undervalued relative to its growth outlook. This outlook is especially relevant for professional NZ investors seeking quality exposure to recovering global travel demand and diversified revenue streams, further reinforced by United’s improving operational outlook despite temporary challenges in specific hub markets.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.