Should I Buy Mainfreight Stock in 2025? Complete NZ Analysis

What is Mainfreight?

What is the price of Mainfreight stock?

The price of Mainfreight stock is rising this week. As of today, Mainfreight is trading at NZ$70.30, up NZ$3.30 (+4.93%) over the last 24 hours and showing a weekly gain of NZ$1.55 (+2.25%). The company’s market capitalisation stands at NZ$7.08 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 82,895 shares over the past three months. Investors are seeing a P/E ratio of 25.8, a dividend yield of 3.57%, and a beta of 0.72, indicating less volatility than the broader market. With steady growth and moderate volatility, Mainfreight remains a compelling option for New Zealand investors seeking stability and income.

Our complete analysis of Mainfreight stock

After reviewing Mainfreight’s latest financial results and analysing its stock performance over the past three years, we have utilised a rigorous, data-driven approach—integrating current financial indicators, technical signals, market data, and peer benchmarking through our proprietary algorithms. The stock’s resilience and dynamic performance make it a focal point as the logistics sector adapts to shifting macroeconomic conditions and global trade realities. So, why might Mainfreight once again become a strategic entry point into the Australasian logistics and technology-enabled supply chain space in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Mainfreight’s share price has demonstrated marked resilience, closing at NZ$70.30 on May 30, 2025—up 4.93% in a single session and posting a 2.25% gain over the trailing twelve months. While the broader market faced episodic volatility, Mainfreight’s shares have maintained an upward bias, having rebounded decisively off the NZ$55.00 52-week low, and now just below the NZ$77.60 yearly high. Market capitalisation stands robust at NZ$7.08 billion, underpinned by consistently active daily turnover averaging nearly 83,000 shares.

Recent developments further bolster investor confidence. The latest full-year results revealed top-line strength—an 11% year-on-year uplift in revenue to NZ$5.25 billion, with all five operating regions and three core divisions notching sales growth. Notably, Australia emerged as the principal revenue and profit driver, counterbalancing margin softness in Asia, the Americas, and New Zealand. Even amidst profit pressures in some geographies, the company maintained its interim dividend, reflecting a commitment to rewarding shareholders and demonstrating underlying cash flow resilience.

From a sectoral perspective, the logistics and supply chain sector is entering a period of renewed expansion. As global demand normalises post-pandemic, integrated providers like Mainfreight are well-positioned to capitalise on rising volumes, supply chain digitisation, and higher-value service offerings. New Zealand’s continued infrastructure investment, coupled with relative stability compared to many global peers, creates a distinctively favourable macro backdrop.

Technical Analysis

Technical signals currently favour a constructive outlook for Mainfreight. The price’s surge above both the 50-day (NZ$62.32) and 200-day (NZ$69.60) moving averages highlights robust medium-term momentum and a potential regime shift after a recent consolidation phase.

• RSI (14-day): 67.02, approaching but not breaching overbought territory. This level suggests ongoing buying interest, with room for further advance without signalling exhaustion.
• MACD and Moving Averages: Short- and long-term moving averages remain in a positive configuration, supporting sustained upward bias.
• Key Levels: Immediate support is clustered near NZ$67.33—a level reinforced by recent volume-weighted average price activity. Resistance remains at the 52-week high of NZ$77.60, presenting a clear technical catalyst. A definitive breach could open the path to fresh price discoveries.
• Volume: The recent upward move has been confirmed by increasing daily turnover—a sign of commitment from institutional participants and underlying confidence in the company’s operational trajectory.

With the current set-up, Mainfreight offers a combination of strong support, intact uptrend momentum, and an opportunity to participate in a potential bullish reversal as it approaches resistance.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamentally, Mainfreight’s growth narrative remains compelling, even as profit before tax saw a transitory 3% decline (to NZ$383.6 million) due to compression in certain international regions. Importantly, net profit surged 31% to NZ$274.3 million—reflecting effective cost management, operational improvements, and a focus on higher-margin segments.

• Revenue Growth: Consistent, double-digit year-on-year performance, supported by both organic expansion and deeper penetration into core markets. The historical compound annual revenue growth rate of 12.2% demonstrates Mainfreight’s ability to expand through cycles.
• Geographic and Service Diversification: Revenue growth was broad-based—across all core regions and service divisions (Transport, Warehousing, Air & Ocean). This hedges against regional fluctuations and enhances earnings stability.
• Profitability and Cash Flows: Robust net profit and strongly managed dividend profile (current gross yield of 3.57%) offer investors a dual engine of growth and income, well supported by operating cash flow.
• Valuation: With a P/E ratio of 25.8 and a PEG ratio lower than most global logistics peers, Mainfreight trades at a justified, arguably attractive multiple given its market share potential (less than 1% of a US$1 trillion global logistics sector) and proven ability to capture incremental market share. The payout ratio of 87% indicates a judicious balance between rewarding shareholders and retaining capital for growth.
• Structural Strengths: Mainfreight benefits from a powerful brand, founder-led governance (Bruce Plested retains a 15% stake), and a management team known for operational discipline and innovation—critical intangible strengths in today’s supply chain sector.

Volume and Liquidity

Consistent, above-average daily trading volume is a material positive for Mainfreight shares, evidencing high market confidence and institutional interest. The free float, backed by a broad base of institutional and retail investors, offers dynamic valuation potential—enabling the stock to respond readily to new information and positive catalysts.

• Liquidity: The liquidity profile is excellent for an NZX blue-chip. This ensures entry and exit can be executed efficiently, limiting spread risk and volatility for both short-term traders and long-term participants.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several forward-looking catalysts underpin the case for renewed upside in Mainfreight shares:

• Integrated Solutions & Technology: Mainfreight’s multi-modal logistics offerings across road, rail, sea, and air—enabled by ongoing investment in technology and digital solutions—set it apart from legacy competitors and position it well for customer supply chain transformation.
• Australian Market Leadership: Australia has rapidly grown to be the largest revenue and profit engine, and further scale advantages are coming as market recovery accelerates, providing a clear runway for margin expansion.
• Market Normalisation & Recovery: The ongoing rebound in global freight and logistics demand should flow directly into higher shipment volumes—from raw materials to consumer goods—especially as key economies return to expansion mode.
• ESG and Sustainability Initiatives: New investments in energy efficiency, emissions transparency, and sustainable logistics practices align with the increasing ESG focus of both corporate and institutional clients—potentially widening Mainfreight’s addressable market.
• Analyst Support: The analyst consensus target of NZ$77.31 implies a clear 12.4% upside from current levels, while a medium-term move to NZ$91.39 (+30%) cannot be ruled out should Mainfreight deliver further margin recovery and strategic wins.
• Dividend Stability: Maintaining the 85-cent interim dividend underscores robust underlying cash flow, providing continued income certainty for yield-oriented shareholders.

Investment Strategies

Mainfreight’s technical and fundamental profile supports a range of strategic approaches for different time horizons:

• Short-term: Active investors may see opportunity in trading volatile upward moves as the stock approaches and potentially breaches the NZ$77.60 resistance. The strong current momentum, above-average volume, and technical structure reinforce the prospect of further rapid price appreciation.
• Medium-term: Holding through the rest of 2025 positions investors for both operational catalysts—such as further Australian market expansion and global market rebound—and the upcoming catalyst-laden Q1 2026 earnings window. The confluence of yield, momentum, and company-positive events creates an attractive risk/reward skew.
• Long-term: For those with a multi-year perspective, Mainfreight offers exposure to global logistics sector growth, increasing digitisation, and structural supply chain shifts. With a demonstrated ability to grow through economic cycles, and a less-than-1% share of a global US$1 trillion market, the compounding opportunity remains significant.

Ideal positioning may be found at or near current technical lows (support around NZ$67.33), or opportunistically on any minor pullbacks ahead of major catalysts such as earnings releases, new service rollouts, or regulatory changes that favour market leaders.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Mainfreight?

Mainfreight stands at the intersection of robust operational delivery and favourable sector momentum, combining:

• Consistent, above-market revenue growth and strong net profitability,
• A diversified geographic and service platform that mitigates regional risks,
• Well-supported technical structure and bullish short-/medium-term price signals,
• Attractive current dividend yield and established payout history,
• Clear fundamental, technical, and strategic catalysts indicating renewed upside potential.

The confluence of rising volumes, a supportive macro environment, and sector-specific drivers all seem to justify renewed investor interest. Analyst targets and proprietary modeling both project continued outperformance in a market hungry for defensive growth and income. For investors seeking an established, innovation-driven, and globally oriented logistics leader, Mainfreight may be entering a compelling new bullish phase—one that warrants serious consideration as a cornerstone position for those looking to capture the next leg of growth in both the New Zealand and international freight sectors.

In a landscape where dynamism, resilience, and market leadership are paramount, Mainfreight’s current trajectory seems to represent an excellent opportunity for investors well positioned to benefit from the next evolution in global logistics.

How to buy Mainfreight stock in New Zealand?

Buying shares in Mainfreight (MFT) has never been more straightforward for New Zealand investors. Thanks to local and global regulated brokers, you can buy Mainfreight stock online quickly and securely. There are two main approaches: making a direct (“spot”) purchase of Mainfreight shares, where you own the actual shares, or speculating on price movements with Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which don’t convey ownership. Each method has its pros and costs to consider. For help choosing the right provider, see our NZ broker comparison further down this page.

Cash buying

A cash purchase means you’re buying real Mainfreight shares listed on the New Zealand Exchange (NZX), becoming a part-owner and potentially eligible for dividends and shareholder perks. Most NZ brokers charge a fixed commission per order—typically around NZ$5–$15.

Important example

For example:
If Mainfreight’s share price is NZ$70.30, and you invest NZ$1,000, you'll pay about NZ$5 in fees. That means you can buy approximately 14 shares (NZ$1,000 – NZ$5 = NZ$995; NZ$995 ÷ NZ$70.30 ≈ 14 shares).

Gain scenario

If the share price rises by 10%, your Mainfreight shares are now worth about NZ$1,100.
Result: +NZ$100 gross gain, i.e. +10% on your investment.

Trading via CFD

Trading Mainfreight via a CFD (Contract for Difference) allows you to speculate on price movements—up or down—without owning the shares. CFD providers typically charge a spread (the difference between buy and sell prices) and, if you hold positions overnight, a small daily financing cost. CFDs also offer leverage (borrowed capital), amplifying both gains and potential losses.

Example

You open a CFD position on Mainfreight with NZ$1,000 and use 5x leverage, giving you exposure of NZ$5,000.

Gain scenario

If the share price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: +NZ$400 gain, on a stake of NZ$1,000 (excluding fees).

Final advice

Before investing, it’s vital to compare the fees and features of different NZ brokers—including commissions, minimums, and access to the NZX or CFDs—to find the solution that best matches your needs. Your choice between owning shares and trading CFDs depends on your investment objectives and risk tolerance. For tailored help, make use of the broker comparison tool further down the page. Investing in Mainfreight is accessible for Kiwis at every stage—whether you’re building long-term wealth or looking for short-term opportunities in a leading NZ company.

Our 7 tips for buying Mainfreight stock

The latest news about Mainfreight

Mainfreight shares surged 4.93% in daily trading to NZ$70.30, driven by positive technical momentum. This strong price action reflected both robust investor interest and confidence in Mainfreight's strategic direction, with the stock now trading significantly above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Technical indicators, particularly an RSI of 67.02, suggest bullish sentiment approaching overbought levels, reinforcing the strong short-term outlook. The high daily trading volume of nearly 83,000 shares underscores the heightened market engagement, a positive signal in the context of the New Zealand Exchange.

Mainfreight reported a record annual revenue of NZ$5.25 billion, up 11% year-over-year, with broad-based sales growth. This result highlights the company's resilience and ability to capture new opportunities across all five operating regions and divisions, despite a challenging global logistics environment. In particular, Australia emerged as the largest contributor to both revenue and profit, offsetting weaknesses in New Zealand and other regions. The company's net profit for the year soared 31% to NZ$274.3 million, evidencing successful operational execution and effective cost management, which are especially notable in light of margin pressures reported elsewhere.

Analyst consensus presents a 12.38% upside for Mainfreight shares, reflecting optimism about future growth potential. With a target price of NZ$77.31, the market sees further room for appreciation, supported by Mainfreight’s strong geographic diversification and integrated logistics offerings. The company’s historical earnings growth, competitive positioning, and proven execution are key factors underpinning this positive sentiment, particularly as the global logistics sector normalizes following post-pandemic disruptions.

Mainfreight maintained its interim dividend at 85 cents per share and offers a stable 3.57% yield, reinforcing shareholder confidence. Steady dividend payments signal management’s commitment to rewarding shareholders even during periods of margin pressure. The company's relatively high payout ratio of 87%, together with PIE fund eligibility and tax-efficient treatment within New Zealand, further bolsters Mainfreight’s attractiveness to both institutional and retail investors seeking regular income.

Australia's outstanding performance has become a core stabilizer for Mainfreight’s earnings, compensating for local New Zealand softness. The shift in profit center toward Australia demonstrates the effectiveness of Mainfreight’s geographic diversification strategy. It provides crucial stability for New Zealand-based investors, as the group can leverage strong regional results to offset temporary weaknesses in its home market, improving both risk profile and consistency of returns for long-term shareholders.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.