Should I buy Medical Properties Trust stock in 2025? Expert NZ Analysis

What is the Medical Properties Trust?

How much is the Medical Properties Trust stock?

The price of Medical Properties Trust stock is steady this week. As of now, the current stock price stands at $4.61 USD, unchanged over the past 24 hours, with a -1.10% dip over the past week. The company has a market capitalisation of $2.77 billion, an average three-month volume of 10.35 million shares, and a forward P/E ratio of 72.03 (TTM P/E not available due to recent net losses). Medical Properties Trust offers a substantial dividend yield of 6.94% and its stock beta is 1.46, reflecting above-average volatility. For Kiwi investors, these figures signal both high income potential and marked price swings worth evaluating carefully.

Our full analysis of the Medical Properties Trust stock

After rigorously analysing Medical Properties Trust’s most recent financial statements and its stock performance trajectory since 2022, we have leveraged our proprietary algorithms to integrate financial, technical, sectoral, and competitive intelligence from a wide spectrum of respected sources. This deep-dive reveals both the resilience and the transformation under way at this key global healthcare REIT. So, why might Medical Properties Trust stock once again become a strategic entry point into the listed healthcare real estate sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Medical Properties Trust (NYSE: MPW), currently trading at USD $4.61, has experienced a period of intense volatility, emblematic of the broader shift within the healthcare property REIT segment. While the stock is down -7.43% over the past year, it posted a notable recovery of +5.01% in the last six months, stabilizing above its 52-week low ($3.51) and establishing clear resilience after the sector’s 2023 turmoil. The company’s market cap stands at $2.77 billion, confirming its status among the leading global healthcare property holders.

Looking beyond the headline losses, the recent quarter has seen encouraging developments:

• Significant reduction in net losses (from -$1.46 per share in Q1 2024 to -$0.20 in Q1 2025), signaling a sharp improvement in underlying operations.
• Debt refinanced ($2.5 billion over seven years), lifting dividend restrictions and affirming management’s proactive commitment to capital structure optimization.
• Renewed FFO positivity: Normalized FFO is now back in positive territory at $0.14 per share, reestablishing a foundation for sustainable payouts.

Macroeconomic tailwinds are also supportive. As healthcare spending remains robust and demographic trends continue to favour long-term demand for hospital facilities, Medical Properties Trust—thanks to its international reach across Europe, North America, and Australasia—looks well-placed to capture value from global secular trends in health infrastructure investment. This positive context underpins what analysts see as a prudent optimism, reinforced by a consensus target price of $5.75 (+24.7% potential upside).

Technical Analysis

Technically, MPW’s current configuration is increasingly supportive for opportunistic positioning:

• RSI (14-day): At 48.04, the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, suggesting a balanced technical posture and scope for upward movement.
• MACD: While slightly negative (-0.024), this momentum indicator has stabilized, reducing the likelihood of further rapid declines.
• Short-term moving averages (5-day: $4.58) have flipped to a buy signal, having recently crossed above a technical pivot on May 22nd, 2025.
• Key support holds at $4.50, repeatedly proving to be a solid base for buying interest—especially given how sellers failed to push the stock below this level during recent market weakness.
• Resistance is clearly delineated around $5.00-$5.10, setting a relatively close and achievable technical target should momentum accelerate.

Although most medium- and long-term moving averages (20, 50, 100, 200 days) remain in sell territory, the convergence of recent technical signals with stabilizing fundamentals could well presage a new bullish phase—especially if price action breaks through resistance on increased volume.

Fundamental Analysis

The value case for Medical Properties Trust is underpinned by a confluence of improving fundamentals:

• Revenue stability: TTM revenue of $994.7 million confirms a solid topline, with operational performance bit-by-bit decoupling from past challenges associated with tenant distress (notably, the Steward Health bankruptcy).
• Profitability trajectory: Crucially, net losses are narrowing rapidly and the return to positive FFO signals a vital inflection point. The company continues to align its portfolio, disposing of non-core assets and strengthening its balance sheet.
• Dividend yield stands at 6.94%—one of the most attractive in the listed REIT universe, underpinned by normalized cash flows and recent lifting of dividend restrictions.
• Compelling value metrics: Medical Properties Trust trades at a mere 0.58x price-to-book and 2.92x price-to-sales, both notably below historical averages and peer median levels. While the forward P/E ratio (72x) reflects ongoing recovery, it is typical in turnarounds where material earnings inflection is likely.
• Structural strengths: MPW remains one of the world’s largest hospital real estate owners, with a highly diversified asset base (over 43,000 beds under management post-portfolio streamlining), operational reach across nine countries, and strong relationships within Europe’s growing health sector.

Volume and Liquidity

Investor confidence is further reflected in robust trading activity:

• Average daily volume at 10.35 million shares showcases strong ongoing market participation and confidence in the path to recovery.
• Float dynamics are ideal for dynamic re-rating, with over 600 million shares outstanding and a relatively stable shareholder base—attributes that often drive more orderly, less volatile price discovery in large-cap REIT names.
• Volume patterns around key support ($4.50) have indicated strong accumulation phases, and any breakout move above resistance could see liquidity-driven acceleration.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several tangible catalysts underpin MPW’s brightening outlook:

• Successful debt restructuring: By securing $2.5 billion in long-term refinancing, MPW has removed significant uncertainty from its capital structure, paving the way for reinvestment and enhanced shareholder returns.
• Strategic asset sales: The ongoing disposal of non-core properties has streamlined the portfolio, reduced leverage, and set the stage for a more defensible, income-generating asset mix.
• Return of positive FFO: Normalized funds from operations are again positive, and management’s guidance points to continued momentum.
• Geographical diversification: Holdings across nine countries—including a particular focus on the stable, high-growth European market—provide both recession resilience and appeal to institutional investors seeking portfolio ballast.
• Increasing rent coverage: Improvement in tenant rent metrics is anticipated through 2025-26, a metric closely watched by real estate analysts as a harbinger of sustainable income growth.

All these developments are occurring against a backdrop of positive sector sentiment. Institutional investors are rediscovering the merits of the healthcare REIT model amid aging global demographics and rising public health expenditure, creating a virtuous cycle of capital inflows for well-positioned names like Medical Properties Trust.

Investment Strategies

Given the confluence of technical and fundamental catalysts, Medical Properties Trust seems to represent an excellent opportunity for a variety of investor profiles:

• Short-term positioning:
• Entry near the well-established $4.50 support offers a favourable risk-reward trade setup, especially as technical buy signals emerge.
• Momentum traders may target a move toward the $5.00-$5.10 resistance area, with potential for quick upside as sentiment turns.
• Medium-term strategies:
• Accumulating shares in anticipation of medium-term catalysts—the next quarterly earnings, progress in further debt reduction, or positive tenant updates—could enable outsized gains as a re-rating materializes.
• Opportunity for enhanced yield capture thanks to the near-7% dividend, especially compelling in a historically low-interest-rate environment.
• Long-term accumulation:
• For those seeking exposure to global demographic trends, hospital real estate, and stable, income-oriented vehicles, MPW’s current valuation may amount to an ideal multi-year compounding opportunity.
• The stock’s discount to book and historical highs, combined with operational normalization, reinforce the case for patient, strategic investment.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Medical Properties Trust?

In summary, the core strengths of Medical Properties Trust—sector leadership, improved debt structure, strong geographical reach, positive FFO trajectory, and an attractive dividend yield—converge to make the company’s shares increasingly compelling at current levels. Technical signals are shifting in response to stabilizing fundamentals, while market liquidity and analyst forecasts all point to further upside potential (+24-30% from here if consensus targets are met).

While diligent risk management remains important (given headline leverage and the REIT sector’s inherent cyclical nature), the improving operational picture and powerful macro tailwinds suggest the fundamentals justify renewed interest in MPW. For New Zealand investors and those seeking diversified global property exposure, Medical Properties Trust appears to be entering a new bullish phase—one that could reward forward-thinking investors who position now, rather than wait for full turnaround confirmation.

With sector dynamics increasingly favourable and catalyst events aligning, Medical Properties Trust stands out as one of the most attractive risk/reward opportunities in the global healthcare REIT landscape for 2025—an ideal time for serious consideration by optimistically inclined investors.

How to buy Medical Properties Trust stock in New Zealand?

Buying Medical Properties Trust (MPW) shares online is straightforward, secure, and accessible in New Zealand through regulated brokers. As an NZ-based investor, you can own MPW stock by directly purchasing shares (“spot buying”), or trade its price movements with Contracts for Difference (CFDs), allowing for flexible, leveraged strategies. Spot buying gives real ownership, potentially with dividend income, while CFDs can amplify both gains and losses on short-term moves. Further down this page, you’ll find a detailed comparison of brokers available for New Zealand investors to help you choose the best platform for your needs.

Spot buying

A cash (spot) purchase means acquiring actual Medical Properties Trust shares listed on the NYSE in your brokerage account. You own the shares outright and may receive dividends paid by MPW. NZ brokers typically charge a fixed commission per order, often around NZ$5–NZ$15, depending on platform and exchange rates. For example, with Medical Properties Trust trading at US$4.61 (approx. NZ$7.50 per share at a 1 NZD = 0.615 USD rate), a NZ$1,000 investment (after a NZ$8 brokerage fee) lets you buy around 132 shares.

Gain scenario

✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price climbs by 10%, your position is now worth about NZ$1,100.
Result: NZ$100 gross gain (+10%), not including any dividends.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading lets you speculate on the price movement of Medical Properties Trust shares without owning the underlying asset. With CFDs, you can use leverage, meaning a modest initial investment controls a larger position. Fees usually include the spread (the difference between buy and sell prices) and overnight financing if you hold the trade beyond one day. For instance, you enter a NZ$1,000 position with 5x leverage, giving you market exposure of NZ$5,000.

Gain scenario

✔️ Gain scenario: If MPW’s share price rises 8%, your total gain is 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: That’s a NZ$400 gain on your NZ$1,000 position (excluding fees).

Final advice

Before investing, it’s essential to compare each broker’s fees, trading conditions, and regulatory status to ensure you choose the right provider for your investment style. The best approach—spot buying for ownership and dividends, or CFDs for leveraged trading—depends on your financial goals, experience, and risk appetite. To make an informed choice, consult our full broker comparison further down the page.

Our 7 tips for buying Medical Properties Trust stock

The latest news about Medical Properties Trust

Medical Properties Trust has successfully completed $2.5 billion in debt refinancing, improving financial stability. The refinancing was structured over a seven-year term and, crucially, led to the removal of restrictions on dividend payments. This move is significant as it improves both the company's liquidity outlook and its ability to continue rewarding shareholders with steady dividends. The development is particularly relevant for New Zealand-based investors seeking reliable USD-denominated REIT income streams and reassures international holders of the company’s medium-term debt management and ongoing access to capital markets.

Dividend payments remain robust, with a current yield of 6.94% and normalized FFO turning positive in Q1 2025. Despite a challenging environment for healthcare REITs, Medical Properties Trust was able to maintain its quarterly dividend at $0.08 per share. The return to positive normalized funds from operations (FFO) per share in the latest quarter underscores operational progress. For New Zealand institutional and retail investors active in global income portfolios, this highlights the trust’s income-generating potential despite recent headwinds, making MPW an attractive candidate for yield-seeking strategies that focus on US property income.

Net losses have sharply reduced year-on-year, indicating tangible progress in the company’s turnaround strategy. In the first quarter of 2025, net loss per share narrowed dramatically from -$1.46 in Q1 2024 to -$0.20, reflecting improved cost controls and the impact of ongoing asset sales. This strong move towards profitability is notable for international market participants, including New Zealand investors, as it signals that the firm’s restructuring and deleveraging efforts are producing measurable results, steadily restoring market confidence after a period of elevated risk.

Strategic asset disposals and geographical diversification are further strengthening the balance sheet and portfolio quality. By continuing to offload non-core assets and maintain a presence across nine countries on three continents, Medical Properties Trust has reduced its exposure to single market risks and focused on core hospital real estate. This international diversification, especially with a strategic rebalance towards European healthcare assets, is a positive for New Zealand-based global investors, who benefit from risk dispersion and potential capital gains in recovering markets abroad.

Market sentiment has turned cautiously optimistic, with analyst consensus now projecting a 25% upside from current levels. The latest consensus puts the target price at $5.75, indicating a potential upside of roughly 25% from the most recent close. This improved analyst outlook, supported by more stable financial indicators and clear operational progress, provides a constructive signal for New Zealand investors weighing the merits of MPW within a global REIT allocation, especially as technical signals indicate that the stock may have bottomed and begun a recovery trajectory.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.