Should I buy Etsy stock in 2025? (Full NZ Analysis)

What is Etsy?

How much is the Etsy stock?

The price of Etsy stock is rising this week. As of now, ETSY is trading at $52.99 USD, up 2.99% over the past 24 hours and showing a strong 13.98% increase for the week. Etsy’s market capitalisation sits at $5.53 billion, with an average 3-month trading volume of 4.72 million shares. The current Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio is 37.32, and while the company does not pay a dividend, its stock beta stands at 1.78, indicating above-average market volatility. For NZ-based investors, this heightened volatility could offer both risks and opportunities depending on your appetite for dynamic market movements.

Our full analysis of the Etsy stock

After a comprehensive analysis of Etsy’s latest financial results, combined with a rigorous review of its stock performance over the past three years, we have synthesised insights from financial and technical indicators, market dynamics, and competitive positioning through our proprietary algorithms. The findings point toward an evolving investment narrative for this unique e-commerce leader in the consumer cyclical sector. So, why might Etsy stock once again become a strategic entry point into the next wave of digital retail in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Etsy (NASDAQ: ETSY) currently trades at $52.99 USD, marking an impressive rebound with an intraday gain of nearly 3% and a substantial rise of +13.98% over the past week. While the six-month (-3.41%) and one-year (-12.85%) returns hint at recent turbulence—largely reflective of sector-wide headwinds—the stock’s robust movement off its 52-week low of $40.05 is noteworthy. This significant traction comes against a backdrop of improving sentiment within the wider tech and consumer cyclical spheres, as global markets increasingly price in the stabilisation of inflation, a potential rate cut cycle from central banks, and gradual recovery in discretionary spending.

Recent quarterly earnings (Q4 2024 and Q1 2025) revealed that Etsy managed not only to deliver steady revenue growth (+2.2% YoY for 2024) but also showcased powerful earnings leverage, with net income up 56% YoY in Q4 2024 and an enviable adjusted EBITDA margin (29.4%). Importantly, while Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) saw a modest contraction (-4.4% YoY), the company's ability to maintain margins points to exceptional operational discipline.

Positive recent events include the launch of Etsy Insider (a new loyalty programme), expanded delivery partnerships across North America, and the implementation of enhanced AI-driven algorithms for discovery and logistics. These strategic moves are particularly resonant for investors in New Zealand, where exposure to US technology leaders is synonymous with long-term portfolio diversification and USD-denominated growth.

Technical Analysis

Etsy’s technical setup further strengthens the bullish narrative. As of 30 May 2025, the RSI (14) sits at 69.31—a neutral reading, suggesting the stock is not yet technically overbought despite consecutive gains. The MACD indicator, while still signalling “sell”, is trending toward equilibrium, reflecting a momentum-based recovery, and the Williams %R remains close to overbought but not in extreme territory.

• The 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages are all below the current price, reinforcing a new uptrend ($47.21, $46.09, and $49.08 vs. $52.99).
• The 200-day moving average, recently surpassed ($51.38), often signals a medium-term reversal in trend as institutional flows return.
• Key support at $47.03 has held convincingly, strengthening investor conviction.
• The next resistance is seen at $55.79 (Fibonacci R2)—a break above this could trigger further technical buying.

Combined, the technical profile now points to favourable momentum, with the stock ideally positioned at the early stages of a potential medium-term bullish move.

Fundamental Analysis

Etsy's fundamental appeal rests on several pillars:

Revenue, Profitability, and Strategic Expansion

• Revenue: Annual sales reached $2.81 billion in 2024, up 2.2% YoY, proving resilience even in a challenged macro landscape.
• Profitability: With a Q4 net profit of $129.9 million (+56% YoY) and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 30%, Etsy outperforms many direct peers.
• Valuation: The forward P/E of 16.0 looks especially attractive compared to high-growth tech names, suggesting the market may be undervaluing the company's cash flow durability and brand equity. Price-to-sales (P/S) ratios align with key sector benchmarks, underscoring valuation support.

Structural Strengths

• Innovation: Heavy investment in AI/ML is enhancing the supply-demand matching, thus improving user stickiness and conversion rates. The weighting of 42% of GMS transacted through the mobile app showcases Etsy’s early leadership in mobile-first commerce.
• Market Position & Brand: With a “house of brands” portfolio (Etsy, Depop, Reverb), the firm caters to diverse segments within creative commerce, reinforcing its global reach and defensibility, especially as the appetite for unique, sustainable, and artisanal goods grows.
• Market Share: Despite GMS headwinds, Etsy continues to command a premier position in the differentiated e-commerce niche—a sector with barriers to entry and sustained pricing power.

Fundamentals not only support renewed investor interest, but the firm’s consistent cash generation ($1.2 billion in liquidity and investments) allows for adaptation and investment, even through softer market cycles.

Volume and Liquidity

Average daily trading volume, at 4.72 million shares, remains healthy, signifying enduring investor appetite and efficient price discovery. The mid-sized $5.53 billion market cap and tradable float facilitate both institutional and retail activity, supporting a dynamic valuation environment. High liquidity also empowers NZ-based investors to confidently transact in real time, knowing that volatility—while elevated—works both ways and can create ideal entry and exit points against global peers.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

• Product Innovation: The rollout of AI-driven recommendation engines and new beta programs like Etsy Insider are already translating into improved user experience and higher retention.
• Mobile Commerce: The mobile app now accounts for 42% of GMS—a strong indicator of future demographic-driven growth.
• Depop Expansion: This fashion-forward resale platform showed 31.6% GMS growth in 2024, pointing to emerging cross-generational appeal and successful portfolio diversification.
• Financial Resilience: A robust balance sheet ($1.2bn in cash/investments) ensures both offensive and defensive strategic flexibility.
• Upcoming Events: Q2 2025 results (late July–early August) could serve as a pivotal re-rating moment, especially if macro or operational tailwinds surprise positively.

Moreover, Etsy’s commitment to ESG—notably in supporting micro-entrepreneurs and sustainable artisanal economies—continuously strengthens its narrative among ethically-minded investors, increasingly relevant in the NZ context.

The wider technology and consumer discretionary landscape is entering a phase where resilient digital platforms with differentiated communities will see amplified demand. Expected tailwinds from global rate cuts, revived consumer sentiment, and regulatory clarity around online marketplaces favour established players like Etsy.

Investment Strategies

• Short Term: Current price consolidation above major moving averages and near-term support at $47 is ideal for momentum-driven strategies and tactical allocations ahead of the Q2 earnings report.
• Medium Term: Anticipated catalysts—successful rollout of AI initiatives, Depop scaling, and possible upgrades from Wall Street following operational beats—align with holding periods of 6–18 months, particularly as the forward valuation compresses and trends reverse.
• Long Term: Etsy benefits from secular growth drivers (mobile commerce, unique goods demand, creator economy), balance sheet strength, and clear leadership vision (under CEO Josh Silverman). The strategic positioning suggests compounded value creation over multiple years, even through industry cycles.

Technically, the stock’s recent reversal from multi-month lows offers an ideal entry for investors seeking to build positions at or near support—thus optimising risk-reward ahead of upcoming potential catalysts.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Etsy?

In summary, Etsy combines robust financial health, compelling technical momentum, and a well-diversified growth strategy, positioning it as a standout candidate in the consumer tech sector as we move into the next cycle. Its forward P/E of 16.0 (well below many tech peers), a dynamic product pipeline, and a visible path to margin resilience all reinforce the stock’s renewed upside appeal.

While challenges around discretionary spending and competition persist, Etsy’s decisive advances in innovation, diversified brand assets, and proven ability to convert operational excellence into real earnings strongly suggest it may be entering a new bullish phase. For New Zealand investors, Etsy represents a unique opportunity to access high-conviction US growth—with the technicals, fundamentals, and strategic catalysts aligning for those prepared to look beyond near-term market noise.

As the digital retail landscape evolves, Etsy’s blend of brand equity, innovation, and financial strength seems to represent an excellent opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the creative commerce megatrend—one that just might be ready for reacceleration in 2025.

How to buy Etsy stock in New Zealand?

Buying Etsy shares online is straightforward and secure for New Zealand investors, thanks to the many regulated brokers now operating in NZ. Two main methods are available: you can buy Etsy shares directly for long-term ownership (spot buying), or trade them via Contracts for Difference (CFDs) if you prefer flexibility and leverage. Each approach has distinct benefits and costs. To find the best fit for your needs and compare broker offers, check our broker comparison table further down this page.

Spot Buying

When you purchase Etsy shares for cash, you become a direct shareholder in the company—allowing you to benefit from any price appreciation over time. This traditional investment method is well suited for long-term investors. Most trusted New Zealand brokers charge a small fixed commission per trade, typically around NZ$5–NZ$15 per order.

Example

Suppose the Etsy share price is NZ$87 (approximate conversion from USD), and your broker charges a NZ$5 commission. With a NZ$1,000 stake, you can buy about 11 shares (NZ$87 × 11 = NZ$957, plus NZ$5 in fees for a total of NZ$962).
✔️ Gain scenario: If Etsy’s share price climbs 10%, your holding would be worth around NZ$1,100.
Result: That’s a NZ$100 gross gain, or +10% on your initial investment.

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) let you speculate on Etsy’s share price movements, without owning the underlying shares. This approach offers the ability to use leverage—which can amplify both gains and losses—making it popular among active traders. Instead of a direct commission, brokers charge a spread (the difference between buy and sell price) and, for positions held overnight, a financing fee.

Example

You open a position on Etsy CFDs with a NZ$1,000 margin and 5x leverage, giving you a market exposure of NZ$5,000.
✔️ Gain scenario: If Etsy’s share price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: That's NZ$400 profit (excluding any spreads or overnight fees), on your NZ$1,000 commitment.

Final Advice

Before you start investing, it’s essential to compare the fees, account types, and conditions offered by different NZ brokers. Each platform has its own cost structure, trading tools, and level of support to suit different investor profiles. Ultimately, your choice between direct share ownership and CFD trading should reflect your financial objectives, risk tolerance, and investment timeframe. To help you get started, you’ll find a comprehensive NZ broker comparison guide further below on this page.

Our 7 tips for buying Etsy stock

The latest news about Etsy

Etsy’s share price rose by nearly 14% this week, with technical signals suggesting a positive trend. The stock closed at $52.99 USD, up 13.98% over the past seven days, bolstered by renewed buying interest. Key technical indicators — with the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages all flashing strong buy signals — support the view that a short-term upward momentum is in place. This technical strength contrasts with a neutral analyst consensus but represents an encouraging shift for investors monitoring market sentiment in New Zealand, where international growth stories and liquid US listings are often favored in retail and institutional portfolios.

Etsy reported solid earnings for Q4 2024, with net profit up 56% year-over-year, highlighting operational resilience. Recent financial results show a net profit of $129.9 million on revenues of $852.2 million (+1.2% YoY), and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 29.4%. Even as Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) declined 4.4%, Etsy sustained strong cash generation, supported by a diversified revenue structure. This profile of delivering profitability in a challenging sector is likely to resonate with New Zealand-based investors and ETF managers looking for exposure to high-margin global e-commerce businesses.

Etsy’s strategic innovation with its new loyalty program and improvements in search algorithms could drive future engagement. The recent launch of the “Etsy Insider” loyalty program (in beta) and the implementation of enhanced AI-powered search and delivery date algorithms signal a proactive approach to user retention and platform stickiness. While not yet directly linked to initiatives in New Zealand, Etsy’s digital-first strategies are highly relevant for a local e-commerce sector that values advanced online experiences and efficient fulfillment, potentially increasing consumer awareness and future adoption in the region.

Etsy’s portfolio strength is underscored by mobile growth and Depop’s surging contribution, signaling expansion potential relevant to NZ market watchers. With 42% of total GMS in 2024 generated through the mobile app and Depop’s GMS jumping 31.6%, Etsy demonstrates robust adaptation to evolving digital habits. Depop, in particular, enjoys strong brand affinity among younger consumers — a demographic also highly active in New Zealand’s growing secondhand and sustainable goods market, reflecting opportunities for cross-platform engagement and possibly influencing local demand for US-listed e-commerce platforms.

A solid financial position with $1.2 billion in cash and robust 2025 profitability guidance provide reassurance to investors concerned about stability. Etsy’s sizable cash reserves and guidance for an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 25-26% in 2025 suggest the company is well-placed to weather macroeconomic headwinds and fund strategic growth. For New Zealand investors — who frequently weigh US tech and e-commerce stocks for risk diversification and exposure to dollar-based returns — this capital strength stands out as a key positive, especially amid global market volatility.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.