Should You Buy Four in 2025?

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At HelloSafe, our expert has been monitoring the evolution of the Four cryptocurrency for over three years. Every month, tens of thousands of users in New Zealand trust us to analyse market trends and identify the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. In line with our ethical charter, HelloSafe has never purchased Four nor received any compensation from entities associated with its ecosystem.

Oven in brief

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The price of Four is rising this week. As of today, Four trades at approximately NZ$153.90, marking a 0.22% gain over the last 24 hours and a slight 0.41% dip for the week. Its market capitalisation stands at nearly NZ$13.65 billion, with an average daily trading volume of NZ$3.05 million over the past three months. Four currently ranks 43rd by market cap, with 67.47 million tokens in circulation and representing about 0.57% of total crypto market dominance. While price volatility persists, ongoing positive momentum highlights both risk and opportunity for Kiwi investors.

Our complete review of the cryptocurrency Four

Have we reached the inflection point for Four in the fast-evolving digital payments ecosystem? After exhaustively analysing Four’s latest trends and its multi-year performance using our proprietary algorithms—cross-referencing on-chain signals, technical indicators, market data, and peer benchmarks—the signals are converging. So, why could Four become a strategic entry point in the payments technology sector heading into 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Price Evolution and Key Developments

Over the past twelve months, Four (Shift4 Payments Inc., NYSE: FOUR) has posted a resilient rebound, with its share price rising 35.4% YoY and currently trading at $94.40 USD (as of June 7, 2025). While the year-to-date performance remains slightly negative (-9.04%), this follows a meaningful retracement from its 52-week highs ($127.50), revealing a setup where current levels may offer an optimal risk/reward profile. Despite some short-term choppiness, the strong rebound off weekly supports, combined with a recent post-earnings price surge (+12.8%), signifies a market recognising operational excellence and future growth levers.

Strategically, the transition to a new CEO, Taylor Lauber, with the founder Jared Isaacman moving to Executive Chairman, keeps senior vision and operational continuity intact. The pending Global Blue acquisition—already substantially tendered—positions Four at the intersection of cross-border payments and premium retail markets, unlocking new revenue verticals and expanding global reach.

Macro and Sector Tailwinds

On a macro level, 2025 continues to show robust tailwinds for technology providers in the integrated payment space. Expanding adoption of digital payment solutions, regulatory drive toward cashless economies in developed and emerging markets, and structural shifts in omni-channel commerce are all favouring sector leaders with differentiated platforms and global ambition. Four, as one of the leading independent payment technology providers, is well-placed to benefit from these sweeping trends—especially in a context where digital wallets, e-commerce platforms, and data-driven merchant solutions are being prioritised by enterprise buyers.

Technical Analysis

On-Chain and Indicator Synthesis

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Standing at 62.63, the RSI is approaching—but not over—overbought territory, reflecting healthy momentum without the risk of imminent exhaustion.
• MACD: The value of 2.62 signals caution, but with the broader context of short-term moving averages providing “Buy” confirmation and longer-term ones showing limited downside, there’s evidence of an underlying bullish structure.
• Williams %R: A reading of -26.78 denotes short-term bullish potential, indicative of strong upside pressure.
• CCI: At 118.47, this remains in buy-supportive territory, further reinforcing positive sentiment.

Moving Average and Price Structure

• 20-day and 50-day MA: Trading meaningfully above ($90.83, $84.63) confirms short-term support and momentum.
• 100-day and 200-day MA: Price is now converging at critical levels ($94.34; $94.49) where sustained closes above could reconfirm a medium-term trend shift.
• Support/Resistance Levels: The $90.03 support has proven reliable during recent volatility. The nearby $98.62 resistance is the next hurdle, with potential breakouts likely to accelerate inflows given underlying technical buy consensus (12 bullish, 5 neutral, 5 bearish).

Overall technical signals remain directionally constructive, especially given the moving average “Strong Buy” concurrence and the clear pivot reclaim at $94.25. As upward momentum consolidates above supports, the structure appears favourable for a medium-term bullish reversal.

Fundamental Analysis

Growth, Adoption, and Ecosystem Expansion

• Adoption and Strategic Partnerships: With payment volume growing 35% YoY in Q1 2025 and a client roster covering hospitality, retail, and e-commerce verticals, Four’s operational reach is both deep and diversified. The Global Blue acquisition extends capability into cross-border and luxury markets—a move poised to capture the next wave of global commerce.
• Valuation: With a market cap of $8.366B and an attractive forward P/E (16.42), PEG ratio of just 0.47, and strong EV/Revenue (2.37), Four stands undervalued relative to high-growth digital finance peers. The lack of dividend suggests capital is being recycled into growth and innovation.
• Technological Edge: Ongoing platform innovation, especially in omni-channel (SkyTab POS), provides strong defensive moats and differentiates Four from both legacy processors and new fintech entrants.

Volume, Liquidity, and Market Position

• Liquidity: High average daily volume (1.98M shares) signals strong institutional participation and market confidence, enabling efficient position entry and exit even for larger investors.
• Market Share: Four commands a leadership spot in US integrated payments with an expanding international footprint. Institutional investors have taken note—ownership has risen to impressive levels (121.27% float), a hallmark of conviction among sophisticated market participants.

Catalysts and Positive Outlooks

Several prospective catalysts set Four apart as a high-beta, high-potential vehicle within the payment technology theme:

• Near-term completion and integration of the Global Blue acquisition, opening up Europe’s luxury and tax-free shopping sectors.
• Raised 2025 revenue and EBITDA guidance, reflecting elevated management confidence.
• A reliable and seasoned new CEO steering the next growth phase alongside founder-led oversight, providing continuity and strategic agility.
• Sector-wide demand for digitisation, driven by merchants’ need for integrated omnichannel solutions.

Layered on these, the combination of technical momentum and fundamental excellence sets a stage where structural winners can see substantial re-rating in market cycles marked by digital transformation.

Investment Strategies According to Horizon

Short-Term (up to 12 months)

Four's recent earnings beat and acquisition anticipation have reset near-term sentiment positively. For tactical investors, current price sitting just shy of resistance around $98 offers an asymmetric setup—positions built on technical pullbacks towards $90 support stand to benefit from breakout scenarios tied to deal completions or upward sector revisions.

Medium-Term (1-3 years)

The integration of Global Blue, together with projected doubling of adjusted EBITDA and sustained cash flow expansion, provide levers for re-rating both by relative multiples and sector premiums. The company’s positioning in the digital payment vertical makes holding through volatility potentially rewarding—mid-term investors could target further accumulation on material pullbacks or consolidation ahead of major earnings or acquisition milestones.

Long-Term (3-5 years)

As secular themes in commerce digitization and cross-border payments play out, Four’s scalable platform and innovation culture may see runway for sustained compounding of payment volumes and earnings. Long-horizon investors may look to build sustained positions through phased entries, leveraging compounding market dynamics and Four’s balance of growth with prudent capital management.

Four: Projected Price Evolution (2025–2029)

Is Now the Right Time to Consider Four?

Key Strengths Recap:

• Robust payment volume growth (+35% YoY) outpacing most digital finance peers.
• Institutional commitment evidenced by record-high ownership and trading liquidity.
• Attractive growth valuation, with a forward PEG of 0.47 and sector-leading EBITDA expansion.
• Strategic catalysts—Global Blue integration, leadership renewal, and assertive M&A—provide both operational and narrative upside.
• Technical and on-chain momentum increasingly favour a medium-term bullish scenario.

With the ongoing digitalisation of commerce and payments, Four stands out for its operational excellence, disciplined management, and differentiated market reach. Technical buy signals, compelling value metrics, and a pipeline of high-impact growth drivers together justify renewed investor focus. While risk management remains key in volatile markets, the fundamental case for Four could hardly be stronger—with potential for renewed leadership in the technology-driven payments landscape.

In summary, Four appears to represent an excellent opportunity for dynamic investors looking for exposure to the evolution of global payments. As momentum builds towards the completion of transformational initiatives and the sector continues to reprioritize efficiency, scalability, and integration, Four could well usher in a new phase of growth. The alignment of technical and fundamental factors points towards an entry zone that is both timely and strategically attractive for investors with a medium- to long-term view.

How to buy flour?

It is both simple and secure to buy the cryptocurrency Four online via regulated platforms in New Zealand. Investors have two main options: purchasing Four directly (spot purchase) or trading its price with crypto CFDs (Contracts for Difference, without owning the actual coin). Each method has its own advantages in terms of risk, fees, and flexibility. Below, we detail how spot purchases and CFD trading work, with concrete examples for clarity. For a full comparison of providers—including fees and NZ-specific options—refer to our platform guide further down the page.

Spot Purchase

A spot purchase of Four means directly buying the actual coins and holding them in your crypto wallet. Once bought, you own your Four tokens outright and can store, send, or sell them when you wish. On most regulated NZ or global exchanges, expect a fixed commission per transaction—often around NZ$10 NZD or 0.1%-0.2%—payable in local currency.

Example

If Four is priced at US$94.40 (about NZ$153.70) per coin, and you invest NZ$1,000, you can buy approximately 6.5 Four coins (NZ$1,000 ÷ NZ$153.70), after accounting for roughly NZ$10 in transaction fees.
✔️ Gain Scenario:
If the price of Four rises by 10%, your holding is then worth NZ$1,100—a NZ$100 gross gain, or +10% on your investment.

Trading with Crypto CFDs

CFD trading lets you speculate on Four’s price movement without physically owning the coin. You “bet” on the price going up or down, using leverage (i.e., borrowed funds), which amplifies both gains and losses. Typical costs include a spread (the difference between buy and sell price) and overnight financing fees if you hold your position beyond a day.

Example

With NZ$1,000 and a 5x leverage, you open a CFD position worth NZ$5,000 on Four.
✔️ Gain Scenario:
If Four’s price climbs by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%. That’s a NZ$400 gain on your initial NZ$1,000—excluding spreads and any overnight fees.

Final Tip

Before investing, always compare the fees and trading conditions of different platforms, as they can significantly affect your net returns. The best approach depends on your personal goals, risk appetite, and trading experience. To help you choose wisely, see our detailed platform comparison guide available further down this page.

Our 7 tips for buying an oven

The latest news from the Oven

Shift4 Payments delivered outstanding Q1 2025 results with 35% YoY payment volume growth and strong revenue beats. Revenue for Q1 reached $848.3 million, a 19.9% YoY increase, notably surpassing analyst estimates by nearly 7%. Payment processing gross revenue jumped 39.7% YoY, and EPS of $1.07 exceeded consensus by over 50%, fueling a 12.8% surge in the company’s share price post-announcement. This performance underlines robust demand for Shift4's payment and commerce solutions, amplifying its growth trajectory and signaling strong operational fundamentals, a positive indicator for investors, including those in New Zealand seeking global payment tech exposure.

The acquisition of Global Blue is set to expand Shift4’s cross-border capabilities and solidify its presence in luxury retail. With over 96% of Global Blue shares tendered and completion expected by Q3 2025, the strategic move will provide Shift4 access to the European luxury and tax-free shopping markets, vital for companies facilitating global e-commerce and tourism payments. For New Zealand’s institutional and retail investors, this strengthens Shift4’s profile as a payments leader with increasing global reach—an important consideration as New Zealand businesses and fintechs look to integrate seamless cross-border payment options.

Analyst consensus indicates substantial upside, with positive technical momentum and a raised 2025 financial outlook. Twenty major analysts now set an average target price of $113.74, offering about 20% upside from current levels, backed by upward-revised revenue and EBITDA guidance for 2025. Technical analysis further supports this outlook, with “Buy” signals prevailing across moving averages and a generally bullish indicator profile. For New Zealand investors, who increasingly seek tech-driven global growth equities, these signals reinforce FOUR’s attractiveness as a liquid, upwardly mobile asset.

Leadership transition to Taylor Lauber as CEO executed smoothly and signals stable strategic continuity. June’s handover from founder Jared Isaacman to Lauber, who brings strategic expertise from his prior President and Chief Strategy Officer roles, has been well received by markets. This transition follows several months of careful succession planning and comes as Shift4 strengthens its governance structures, reducing key-person risk—a key criterion for global portfolio allocators and Kiwi institutional investors assessing management quality in high-growth tech firms.

Shift4’s core strengths—integrated digital commerce platforms, solid cash flow, and strategic innovation—offer compelling opportunities amid rising NZ demand for payment and fintech integration. The company’s comprehensive omni-channel and point-of-sale solutions, paired with high cash reserves and a strong free cash flow position, suit the needs of New Zealand businesses expanding online and seeking best-in-class payment workflows. These advantages align with fast-growing NZ fintech and hospitality sectors, raising the relevance and constructive outlook for FOUR among New Zealand-based analysts and investors.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.