Should You Buy Bitcoin in 2025?

Why trust HelloSafe?

At HelloSafe, our expert has been monitoring the evolution of Bitcoin cryptocurrency for over three years. Every month, tens of thousands of users in New Zealand trust us to analyse market trends and identify the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. In line with our ethical charter, HelloSafe has never purchased Bitcoin nor received any compensation from entities associated with its ecosystem.

Bitcoin in brief

How much does 1 Bitcoin cost?

The price of Bitcoin is up this week. As of today, Bitcoin is trading at NZ$171,900 with a 24-hour change of +2.02% and a 7-day gain of +1.33%. Its market capitalisation stands at approximately NZ$3.4 trillion, with an average 3-month trading volume near NZ$72 billion. Bitcoin holds the top global rank by market cap, with 19.87 million BTC currently in circulation, representing a 61.56% share of the total crypto market.

While recent gains are notable, investors in New Zealand should remain mindful of Bitcoin’s characteristic volatility and its potential as a long-term value reserve.

Our full review of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin

Have we reached an inflection point in Bitcoin’s trajectory, or is the world’s leading cryptocurrency simply consolidating for its next move? Over the past three years, we have rigorously analysed Bitcoin’s evolution through on-chain metrics, technical signals, market data and a deep assessment of the competitive landscape—leveraging our proprietary algorithms to uncover significant trends. So, why could 2025 see Bitcoin re-emerge as a strategic entry point in the ever-dynamic digital asset ecosystem?

Performance Snapshot and Market Context

Recent Price Evolution

Bitcoin (BTC) currently trades at $105,285 USD (as of June 7, 2025), representing a robust 48.9% gain over the past twelve months and a +4.1% performance over six months, following an all-time high of $111,970 set just weeks prior. The market has displayed notable resilience, with 24-hour volumes at $45.25 billion and a liquidity profile far above most digital assets, underpinning a market capitalisation now exceeding $2.09 trillion. This dynamic highlights ongoing investor interest and robust transactional activity.

Positive Events Shaping Sentiment

• Institutional flows remain a pillar of strength, as evidenced by $127 billion of assets now managed via spot Bitcoin ETFs.
• MicroStrategy extended its issuance to acquire additional Bitcoin, while Metaplanet’s strategic $5.4 billion raise targets the accumulation of 210,000 BTC through 2027.
• Crucially, regulatory headwinds are subsiding: the US administration’s renewed crypto-friendly posture and South Korea’s progress on ETF adoption have fueled renewed optimism.

Supportive Macro and Sectoral Environment

Macro variables strongly favour digital assets: rates are stabilising, systemic inflation concerns persist globally, and governments are re-evaluating the role of alternative reserves. Further, discussions on integrating Bitcoin into national treasury reserves underscore the asset’s surging perception as a store of value—adding yet another layer to its risk-adjusted appeal. Overall, despite pockets of geopolitical turbulence, the maturation of the regulatory framework and institutional on-ramps are materially improving the investment landscape for cryptocurrencies.

Technical Analysis

Key On-Chain and Market Indicators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): Hovering in bullish territory, suggesting sustained buying interest but without excessive overbought conditions.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Remains positive, confirming upward momentum and foreshadowing potential trend continuation.
• Moving Averages (MA): Shorter-term EMAs and SMAs are currently trading above longer-term averages (notably the MA50 vs MA200 on the 4H timeframe), indicating upward bias.

Support, Resistance, and Reversal Triggers

• Major Technical Support: $103,200, a price area where significant volumes have changed hands and prior corrections have found footing.
• Immediate Resistance: $107,000-$109,000 is now in focus as the next hurdle. Breaks above this band could reinforce the bullish thesis.
• Consolidation: Recent price action has oscillated between the MA50 and MA200, typically a precursor to breakout phases.
• Short/Mid-Term Structure: With volatility compressing and on-chain dormancy cues rising (reduced exchange balances), a “spring-coil” setup may be underway—a pattern historically preceding notable upside moves.

Overall, the technical landscape suggests that Bitcoin could be on the cusp of a renewed bullish phase, with upside acceleration possible should momentum confirm above resistance.

Fundamental Analysis

Expanding Adoption and Strategic Partnerships

• Institutional Integration: Inflows into spot ETFs continue apace, outpacing previous cycles. Multi-billion dollar commitments from listed corporations (e.g., MicroStrategy, Metaplanet) highlight growing corporate conviction.
• Network Strength: Over 750 active developers and robust open-source governance ensure resilience, rapid patching, and iterative technological upgrades.
• DeFi and Layer-2 Growth: Implementation of the Lightning Network and Taproot enhances both scalability and privacy, fostering fertile ground for decentralized financial applications.

Relative Valuation and Key Metrics

• Market Cap and Dominance: At $2.09 trillion, Bitcoin retains 61.6% market share, illustrating market confidence in its structural leadership.
• Supply Dynamics: With 19.87 million BTC already mined out of a 21 million maximum, scarcity is becoming a compelling argument for capital inflows, particularly as exchange reserves reach multi-year lows.
• Value Proposition vs. Peers: Although new Layer-1s and altcoin competitors exist, none rival Bitcoin’s combination of security, liquidity, and institutional acceptance.

Volume and Liquidity Profile

• Exchange Volumes: Sustained 24-hour trading volumes of $45+ billion ensure deep, liquid markets—minimising slippage and providing a reliable exit/entry environment for large-scale participants.
• ETF Holdings: Renewed accumulation by ETF providers, after a brief Q1 decline, provides a stabilising force and signals renewed institutional appetite.

Key Catalysts and Positive Drivers

• Protocol Enhancements: Ongoing improvements via Taproot and Lightning Network will propel scalability, efficiency, and privacy, directly addressing previous pain points.
• Regulatory Tailwinds: Pro-crypto policy in the US and Asian financial hubs such as South Korea are shifting the narrative from risk to opportunity.
• National Reserves Integration: The prospect of Bitcoin being adopted in sovereign reserves, although nascent, could represent a structural demand shock.
• DeFi and Use Case Expansion: New integrations in DeFi, custody solutions, and tokenised assets are broadening Bitcoin’s real-world utility and investability.

Investment Strategies (By Horizon)

Short-Term (<6 months)

• Tactical Entrances: Given recent consolidation near key moving averages and robust support at $103,200, tactical entries on dips or following confirmed technical breakouts above $109,000 appear particularly well-positioned.
• Event-Driven Trades: Anticipating protocol updates (such as the next Taproot iteration) presents an “event alpha” opportunity given historical precedents of price outperformance around upgrades.

Medium-Term (6-24 months)

• Trend Following: The environment of accelerating institutional inflows—especially through ETFs—and steadily falling exchange reserves supports a strategy of riding trend confirmation signals.
• Portfolio Diversification: Bitcoin’s low historical correlation with traditional assets, combined with inflation-resistant characteristics, reinforces its role as a diversifier in multi-asset portfolios.

Long-Term (2-5 years+)

• Strategic Accumulation: With only roughly 1.1 million BTC left to be mined, and impending supply cliffs, patient accumulation on volatility or macro-driven dips appears fundamentally justified.
• Reserve Asset Thesis: As more governments and corporations consider or enact Bitcoin purchases as a treasury/risk reserve, the probability of asymmetric upside increases.

Bitcoin Price Projections

Is Now a Strategic Entry Point for Bitcoin?

Key Strengths Summarised

• Bitcoin’s liquidity, dominance, and proven decentralised infrastructure set it apart as the benchmark digital asset.
• The momentum of institutional adoption—via ETFs and balance sheet allocations—continues unabated after a momentary Q1 slowdown.
• Progressive regulatory stance in major economies reduces existential risks and paves the way for broader participation.
• Protocol improvements (Lightning, Taproot) and new DeFi integrations expand the ecosystem’s utility and functionality.
• Supply scarcity, given the fixed 21 million cap and accelerated long-term holding behaviour, amplifies the long-term value proposition.

Optimistic Outlook & Express Invitation to Reconsider

With strong fundamentals, rising institutional conviction, and an innovation pipeline accelerating both scalability and real-world adoption, Bitcoin seems to represent an excellent opportunity at current levels. The confluence of supportive macro, regulatory tailwinds, and imminent protocol milestones justifies renewed interest in digital value exposure—particularly in the context of multi-year wealth compounding.

For investors focused on forward-looking asset allocation, Bitcoin could well be entering a new bull phase. While managing risk remains essential in this high-volatility space, the evidence suggests that strategic entries—especially on technical consolidations or ahead of watershed protocol events—are more compelling than ever.

Bitcoin remains a high-volatility asset, offering outstanding opportunities for dynamic investment, but always requiring diligent risk management. The recent pace of price acceleration demonstrates Bitcoin’s sustained potential for rapid, powerful moves. Nevertheless, evolving macroeconomic dynamics demand selective positioning. Technical levels to monitor include $103,200 as pivotal support and $109,000 as an important resistance band. The upcoming protocol upgrade, scheduled for Q2 2025, may well prove a decisive catalyst for Bitcoin’s next growth chapter.

How to buy Bitcoin?

It’s now easier and safer than ever for investors in New Zealand to buy Bitcoin online using a regulated platform. Two main approaches are available: buying spot Bitcoin (owning the underlying coin and storing it in a wallet) or trading via crypto CFDs (speculating on price movements without owning the asset). Both methods have different risk profiles and fee structures. To choose the best solution based on your goals, you’ll find a detailed comparison of leading NZ-friendly platforms further down this page.

Spot Purchase

Spot buying of Bitcoin means you’re purchasing the actual cryptocurrency, which will then be held in your digital wallet. You truly own the coins and can withdraw or transfer them at any time. Common fees include a fixed commission per transaction—typically charged in NZD, often ranging from NZ$5 to NZ$20, depending on the platform.

Practical example

Let’s say the current price of Bitcoin is NZ$170,000.* If you invest NZ$1,000, you can buy about 0.00588 BTC, after accounting for, say, NZ$5 in transaction fees.

Gain Scenario

If Bitcoin rises by 10%, your holding would then be worth NZ$1,100. Result: a gross gain of NZ$100, or +10% relative to your initial investment.

Trading via CFD

Trading Bitcoin via Contracts for Difference (CFDs) means you do not own the underlying asset. Instead, you speculate on whether the price will rise or fall. CFD trading allows access to leverage, but involves extra fees: spreads (buy/sell price difference) and overnight financing costs if you hold the position overnight.

Practical example

You enter a CFD trade on Bitcoin with NZ$1,000 and 5x leverage. This gives you exposure to NZ$5,000 worth of Bitcoin.

Gain Scenario

If Bitcoin climbs by 8%, your leveraged CFD position returns 8 % × 5 = 40 %. Result: your profit is NZ$400 on your original NZ$1,000 investment (excluding fees).

Final Advice

Before investing, it’s essential to carefully compare the fees and terms across the main platforms available in New Zealand, as these can significantly affect your returns. Ultimately, whether you choose real coin ownership (spot) or trading with leverage (CFDs) depends on your experience, your objectives, and your comfort level with risk. For a detailed comparison, check the platform selection guide further down this page.

*Price and fee data given as of June 2025. For real-time rates, always verify on the platform.

Our 7 tips for buying Bitcoin

The latest Bitcoin news

Bitcoin has maintained strong price performance, gaining over 1% this week and nearly 49% year-on-year. The digital asset is currently trading at $105,285 USD, after touching its all-time high of $111,970 in late May 2025. Short-term technical indicators remain positive, with momentum signals such as MACD and RSI supporting further upward movement, and moving averages hinting at a potential bullish shift. Professional analysis labels the market sentiment as moderately optimistic, sustained by consistent institutional interest and a maturing global market structure.

Institutional adoption remains a key driver, highlighted by $127 billion in assets held via Bitcoin ETFs worldwide. Despite a temporary 23% dip in ETF holdings during Q1 2025, institutional flows have resumed, underscoring robust demand from traditional finance actors. This inflow trend includes high-profile moves such as MicroStrategy’s expanded $1 billion convertible note offer for further Bitcoin accumulation, and Metaplanet’s ambitious goal to raise $5.4 billion to acquire up to 210,000 BTC by 2027. These initiatives reinforce Bitcoin’s recognition as a viable long-term reserve asset among global corporations and funds, a theme relevant for New Zealand asset managers gauging indirect Bitcoin exposure.

Global regulatory climate has recently turned more constructive, supporting Bitcoin’s integration into traditional and state reserves. The US administration has indicated a pro-crypto stance, signaling more favorable regulatory treatment for digital assets. Meanwhile, South Korea has advanced the approval process for Bitcoin ETFs, further solidifying mainstream acceptance beyond North America and Europe. Notably, there are ongoing discussions in several jurisdictions—including Australia and indirectly impacting New Zealand—about officially integrating Bitcoin into sovereign reserves, a development that could encourage local regulatory confidence and financial innovation.

Bitcoin’s fundamentals benefit from greater supply constraints, as on-exchange balances fall and long-term holding rises. The reduction in readily available Bitcoin on exchanges suggests that investors and institutions continue to accumulate and hold, rather than trade, which historically supports upward price pressure. This supply dynamic is particularly valuable for New Zealand investors seeking portfolio diversification through assets with programmed scarcity and global liquidity.

Innovations such as the Lightning Network and Taproot upgrades are steadily improving Bitcoin’s scalability, privacy, and DeFi integration. Recent advances have made the network more efficient and adaptable, supporting both micropayments and sophisticated transaction types. This technical progress is relevant for New Zealand’s growing fintech sector and digital asset service providers, potentially enabling new payment applications and expanding the utility of Bitcoin beyond speculation as regulatory clarity emerges locally.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.